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I am here and reading, but as I have an exam tomorrow to study for I won't be as involved today. No promises if I can get back and vote. Even if I do, my vote might not be educated but another gut one.
I will never get tired of the "Gil will be Gil" reasonings. x'd with Rikae |
I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:
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Edit: x'd since Nog. |
Reading along, thinking along, and replying to some stuff people said about me.
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EDIT: xed with Nerwen |
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Even if you Inzil actually voiced a suspicion on Skip the first (I haven't checked that but have no reason to believe you'd lie here as it could be easily checked by anyone), this is an interesting phrasing by you: Quote:
The question this is begging then is, would you have been that careless on your phrasing if you were a lion? |
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Edit: x'd since my last post. |
I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.
It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that. |
So, I'd just managed to get caught up, but then my internet died suddenly. Back now, and reading.
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A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.
Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five. Quote:
Then Wyth, who today has seemed extra defensive. I'm guessing because Quote:
Then Greenie, who hadn't really said anything of note that I remember. And finally Nog, Quote:
I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too. That said Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead. Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me. I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote. Notes on a few others Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players. Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd. Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar. I'm going to vote in an hour or so, so I can get some RL work done. I'm not sure who I'll vote for, but my top three picks are Zil, Wyth, or Enca for the moment. |
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Talking about votes that were more or less wasted / inconsequential aka. ones lions and other creatures who don't care who dies if their mate is not on the chopping-board (or do not wish to be scrutinized too much) prefer. (EDIT: added the verb "prefer" to make sense of the sentence)
In the order of dubiousness (aka. the latest first). Volo's vote for G55. Gil's vote for Boro. Encai's vote for Nog. Volo's is a total cast-away. With Gil and Encai you might imagine there was a possibility the ones they voted could also be lynched - but none of them actually tried to persuade others to vote their way or try to influence the outcome. Detachment on who's lynched is one of the signs that should bring red flags around. Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been? Volo I think has already answered why he voted the way he did - even if I'm not sure he could have really thought G55 was "lynchable" at that point even if he honestly suspected her - so whether he actually "knew" he was giving a throwaway - and in that case, did he do that on purpose or was it a genuine mistake? EDIT: X'd with a lot... |
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Edit: I was addressing "I was the first to suspect", which he clearly meant. |
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Edit:x'd with Steve. |
I'll rephrase my last post into questions before I go for a while...
Eomer: What were you thinking throwing your vote away at the last minute? You really didn't think there would have been 3 votes coming Inzil's way crossing yours there at the last seconds to make your vote meaningful? Volo: a) Did you really believe G55 could have gathered the votes to be lynched in the last five minutes? b) Why did you thought you should mention that you were "playing along" with my suspicions of G55? A cover (or even an attempt at framing) perhaps? Gil & Encai: It looks easily that you just tried to make a vote that would look reasonable enough (so giving something in place of an argument to back your vote) but you didn't try to make a difference by trying to make others see your point. So bored ordos or more sinister ones trying to be careful? |
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I suspected Inzil so I put it in writing, as it were. I wouldn't agree that it's 'throwing my vote away', as has been claimed earlier. Inzil is still top of my list, mostly for what is perhaps a rather unfair 'gut feeling' (he reminds me somewhat of myself as a villain, in writing style) and I am intrigued by certain cases put forward against him today. I'm still surprised that the other suspicious Skip-voter (Wilwa) was innocent (and extremely valuable :rolleyes: ) and doubt that they both were innocent. Need to leave now, so: ++INZILADUN |
Continuing commenting again where I left off
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Of course, this game is a little different, as the lions have a reason to go for possible bears as well. I guess it depends on the wolves whether they consider the seer or the bear a bigger threat for themselves. Which, now that I think of it, leads me to think the wolves might try to kill either people who might be seers that dreamed of them (ie seers that are immediately dangerous for them) or bears. It's entirely possible G55 was killed for looking like a bear instead of a seer, or that she was killed because Volo or Mac is a wolf. But I'll take some of my words back - it wouldn't make much sense for the wolves to go for a possible seer that just said someone innocent looks innocent. Quote:
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The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time? |
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That being said, he wasn't the first, and even if he had been, I don't know that being the first to express suspicion means that he wasn't jumping on a bandwagon when he voted. After all, he may have suspected skip already, but that bandwagon was unmistakably a bandwagon, and he didn't have to follow through on his early suspicion. ++Zil And if Zil does turn out to be a lion, I think we should turn a close eye to Mac. Their suspicion of each other this game has been very lackluster - they mention every so often that they're suspicious, but they don't do anything about it, which looks a lot like packmates "suspecting" each other to me. |
I don't care for lists, really, but I need to organize my thoughts. I'll try to keep it brief.
Eönwë - Last on the Skip wagon. At this point, that's a conservative vote, especially since the consensus seems to be that a lion wouldn't do it. Possibly the worst of the Skip-voters. Inziladun - He seems defensive, but I think if he really had something to hide he'd probably be more cautious. Kitanna - I thought she was suspicious but after looking everything over again, seems foul but feels fair. Her vote for Skip is actually reasonable enough and not too waggony. Encaitare - This, from post #55, kind of jumps out at me: "I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though." Others expressed the same sentiment, but this just seems... odd. Her vote for Nog also seems kind of out of the blue, and not very well-supported. Quote:
Thinlómien - Seems trustworthy enough, especially since she suspects me now. Boromir88 - Hasn't said enough. Loslote - Safe, noncontroversial. Skip vote isn't suspicious in itself, since there wasn't a wagon yet, but it also is rather an easy vote. Nerwen - Seems to be poking, casting a little suspicion here and there. Then again, that is a good tactic for an ordo hunting lions as well, though I think ordos usually are more purposeful about it. A Little Green - Seems innocentish. WythDryden - I can't read him at all, not enough to go on yet. Eomer of the Rohirrim - He just seems slippery. Glib. Safe. Too much like a lion would want to be. Macalaure - A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him. Coppermirror - No opinion yet, except that huge lists make me sad. Nogrod - Seems his usual self. I disagree with him on some things, but he doesn't appear guilty. Volo- Seems ok. I'm not buying the "Gal looked seerish" theory, and there's nothing else against him. Gil-Galad - Gil's posts always look suspicious, so I try not to suspect him unless there is more evidence. satansaloser2005 - Silly or under the reindeer. I can't say anything about her at this point. Encai, Eomer and to some extent Eönwë look the most suspicious to me right now. Or maybe I'm just prejudiced against the letter 'E'. Edit: Oh, and Nerwen. |
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A List to Clear My Head
Innocentish
Copper - seems reasonable and perceptive in an innocent way, no alarm bells. Nogrod - when he thinks aloud on the thread, I can hear little wheels furiously turning :D which makes me think he writes what he genuinely thinks instead of trying to hide something. Gil - kind of under the radar, but he seems to have developed a playing style less chaotic than how it was years ago, plus he makes good points. There's nothing particularly worrisome about him atm. No idea Eönwë - still under my radar. Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in. :p Boro - Boro flying under the radar?! What's this? As far as I remember, he hasn't really done anything note-worthy, good or bad, this far, which in itself could be worrisome. Not enough grounds for suspicion though. Lottie - I keep reading her posts like "I disagree, but she seems ok". Normally she seems more suspicious to me, though, which is weird. Greenie - I would like to say that she seems her sharp innocent self but that would be ignoring the fact that she's almost as much under my radar as Eönwë aka the King-under-the-Radar. Wyth - can't judge because I haven't seen him play before, fair enough this far. Rikae - I think she's not half as laid-back as a wolf, but then again, it's a long time she last played so I'm not sure how valid that point is, also really baffled about what to make of her relationship with dead Skippy. Mac - like Rikae, he's been away for a time and changed playing style meanwhile. He's so chaotic he seems like a cobbler, but since that's not an option, I think ordo and lover are the most likely options. It's still possible he's a very bold wolf too, can't really read this new Mac at all. Sally - might actually usurp Eönwë as the ruler of the radarworld. Suspiciousish Kitanna - I can't pinpoint it, but something in her posting seems wrong to me, as does the fact that people have been defending her left and right even though she's hardly been under any suspicion toDay. Encai - I'm getting the feeling that the wolves are probably flying under the radar and enjoying the show, and Encai would fit that part. There's something non-committal about her in this game that I don't remember from way back and it makes me a little wary. Nerwen - is playing very similarly as last game when she was a wolf. Not that it's very different from her innocent playing style - but I think she analyses a bit more as a wolf and banters a bit more as an innocent. Eomer - I feel bad for putting him here because I always suspect him regardless of his role, but he's been pointing an awful lot of fingers without contributing that much himself. I'm wary of him. Volo - I haven't picked a particularly suspicious vibe from him, but others have pointed out his voting yesterDay was odd, plus IF the wolves though G55 was the seer, it makes him look the worst. I'm still hoping for something to happen that would make the situation clearer, because no one really stands out to me as super wolvish while almost everyone looks at least a bit suspicious. I would prefer to vote someone from my last category but I also reserve the right to change my opinion. ;) edit: xed with everyone |
Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.
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- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however: - You did not mention any of this when you did vote. - You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay. Quote:
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Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion. I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast. Quote:
Defend yourself, sir! ;) |
Since I have to vote now-
++Mac I have already stated a few points against him, although admittedly some suggest Lover rather than Lion. However though the Skip waggon was clearly not *needed* to save anyone, it may still have been that the Lions got it going because one of their number was under suspicion. It may also be that the Mac waggon happened because the Lions felt it was now safe to vote a comrade. Note that these points could apply to Zil too, however I also just want to bring in another candidate. Good luck! |
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EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen |
Am I right in that the votes this far are
Cop – Eomer Eomer – Inzil Lottie – Inzil (2) Nerwen - Mac ? |
The kills seem to point towards lions/lovers that were relatively comfortable on Day One, so with that in mind: a list!
Hodor. Gil Greenie Rikae Kitanna Volo Hodor? Copper - Sweetly and soundly sleeping under my radar. Nogrod - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust him. Eonwe - Nothing sticks out as suspicious, except the vote. Boro - Boro? Loslote - Reasonable, except her suspicion of me, but I might be biased about that. Sally - Sally? Encai - Sweetly and soundly sleeping under my radar. Nerwen - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust her. (wrote this before seeing her vote, might re-evaluate) Hodor! Inzil - See above. Wyth - Won't vote for him toDay, but I'm still wary. Eomer - Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe. Quote:
If I was a lion and any other lions thought it was safe to vote for me yesterDay, I'd have to do some roarin' at them during the Night. That was definitely too close for comfort. Also, Greenie and Nogrod put some serious points under their votes - not very lion-on-lion. |
EDIT: I realize that Inzil doesn't go together with "the lions were probably comfortable". I'll look up "consistent" in the dictionary some time. :smokin:
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And Greenie: good catch (again) about Kitanna! Can you proofread my thesis when I finally get around to writing it? :D |
General feelings at the moment:
Worrying: -Boro - Too much IC for the amount of actual substance posted. And just generally very little posting. Scares me greatly. -Zil - Usually louder and more confrontational. Seems intentionally attempting to be out of the main focus. Very sneaky. Kind of worrying: -Mac -Nog I keep on flip-flopping: -Nerwen - I didn't like her 'Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along' or her #28, but I could potentially see an innocent posting them. -Lommy - She seems good, but something about her makes me uneasy. -Loslote - See Lommy No idea: -Volo -Cop -Eomer Seem good for now: -Rikae - I seem to disagree with her about some things, but she doesn't seem evil. -Gil - Sometimes says strange stuff, but nothing that actually seems evil. -Kitanna - Generally seems logical and helpful. -Encaitare Still not enough for an opinion: -WyDry -Greenie -Sally edit: added missing word |
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Yeeeah... *cough* :rolleyes: Hodor? Lommy - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust her. |
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I don't claim that any of this actually proves you're a villain, mind you, I'm just explaining my vote. Okay? EDIT: x'd since Mac at #275. |
For reasons previously mentioned:
++Encaitare |
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