Nog, in answer to your #231:
I went back through your posts in order to find out for myself what Greenie was actually talking about and whether she had a point or not. Conclusion: I can see where she was coming from, but her voting you because you exaggerated what she thought weak reasons for suspicion (but as you say, and as I said, it was Day 1, hence the '?' at the end of my post) seems somewhat exaggerated as well.
Now what do I think of the two of you? I don't quite share your strong suspicion of Greenie, but I still remember she fooled me to the end two games ago, so I'm wary. And I don't find you that suspicious either, but I haven't yet played with you when you were a wolf, so I'm wary I might overlook the signs.
Darn, being too uncontroversial again...:(

Brinn
Lari
Loslote
sally
wilwa

And while I know the odds of all four wolves and the cobbler being amongst the laryngitic are slim to none, I don't doubt at least two of the bad guys are in this group.

While I mentioned midafternoon that I was either going to vote for Hakon for meta-reasoning regardless of everybody swearing up and down that he needed to stop, or for Morsul for apparently intentionally bad logic (and then carried through with what I was pretty sure was Morsul being intentionally misleading), Lottie seemed particularly opportunistic about it.

And I have a bad feeling about Cabbie, but nothing to support it.

And you think this is any better?

I second that. Not looking good at the moment, Cab.

After snapping out of poet mode (which I did enjoy), Fea appears and starts speaking plainly.
So, your main suspects are Brinn, Lari, Lottie, Sally, and Wilwa? All have notable submarine tendancies, to be sure. Lari and Sally have stated they are ill. Then again, so is Roa apparently, and I'm actually not feeling 100% myself. So that in itself could be a factor, I guess, but I don't think we can afford to give them a pass based upon it at this point.
Lari's vote for Hakon still looks to me worse than Sally's, but both were ultra-safe, since so many had already expressed a desire to lynch him.

Alright, of the Morsul voters, Fea looks more suspicious to me than Loslote. But that's iffy, either way, and now that's she's participating, I'd rather leave her for now.
I'm not so sure about the lack of trail from Boro. It seems an easy thing to claim, especially if one of your fellow wolves is being pointed at. The, "Shh, don't look here," idea looks very much like trying to divert attention. However, this is rather circumstantial.

Of the Hakon voters, I can't really call it. If I hadn't been so suspicious of SPM, I may have voted him too.

I don't like Greenie's vote- it looks very out of nowhere to me. So does McCaber's, but he hasn't been around that much and he seems pressed for time. If Greenie is afraid of being too focused on Nogrod, she ought to try to analyze someone else, not just pick a submarine seemingly at random.

Since I really have to finish this paper, I need to sign out now.

++Greenie

Oh my...

You're making my life very hard McCaber. I had been thinking about voting for Greenie, or maybe Lari or Lottie.

You really tease me... what is my reaction to your vote about: retaliation or just an even more substantial suspicion, feeling bad or feeling being right with my initial suspicions in the first place... I have been suspecting you all the time and you vote for me for voting you on "flimsy reasons" yesterDay - like Pitchie said with doing more or less the same yourself. Well not exactly: you're doing worse actually for saying my reasons to vote for you were just "flimsy", which is far less substantial than what I suspected you on yesterDay... or toDay.

And you seem to vote solely on yeasterDay's basis? What do you think of toDay? Didn't any of the things happening last Night or toDay make you reconsider?

Okay, you may not be responding and I have a bad feeling you haven't been reading the thread in the first place (shame on you if it's true).

I need to reconsider my vote for a minute...

So Lari and sally are ill (I wasn't aware of that, explains the can't-be-bothered attitude), and wilwa has said she's busy and might even have to drop out; Zil is right we shouldn't give them the pass because of that, but I don't really like voting any of them under these circumstances, either - at least not toDay.
Of the quiet ones, Brinn has actually posted most and made the most sense, so I'd like to keep her around for now.
Between the remaining subs, Lottie and McCaber, Cab looks worse at the moment after his out-of-the-blue vote - Lottie at least made some more attempt to explain her vote yesterDay.
The rest:
SpM looks better toDay - cobbler at the very worst, but quite possibly innocent.
Roa - Greenie said she's too good to be true (which makes me wonder about her vote for Greenie), which in a way I can understand, but no furry vibes from her.
Greenie/Nog - not 100 % sure of either of them, but don't suspect either enough to vote.
Zil and Nerwen have both been very reasonable, and no furry emissions from either.
Fea - worries me. First avoids taking any tangible position, then, when pressed for suspects, names only submarines who have been suspected before. Possible candidate for a vote.
Vote to come after a little more mulling over.

Actually, I didn't - it's in my notes. :D But I didn't think it worth mentioning because I thought it pretty inconsequential and in any event contrary to his other thoughts on me. I thought much the same about his comments on Inzil and one or two others. I focussed only on those things that I thought may possibly have provoked a Wolf kill. And I still disagree with you on this point. After Morsul, his main suspect was sally. With Morsul dead, he was likely to focus more on her toDay had he survived. And he explicitly stated that he was tempted to vote for Lari and that he would be looking more closely at her toDay. If anyone wanted to kill him because of something he said, then those two are the most likely in my view. But, as I said, I don't think that it's the strongest piece of evidence against either of them, quite apart from the fact that he may just have been killed because the Wolves spotted him as the Bear.

I agree that he was (contrary to McCaber's assertion) most certainly not a trailless kill. But I can see some merit in Fea's suggestion that he may have been killed because the trail was confusing or potentially misdirecting.

Well, I thought it cute. :D But I agree that it wasn't helpful. Happily, she has made rather more substantive contributions since.

Now, I hate to agree with what appears to be emerging as a concensus among the chatterati here, but I do rather agree that neither Greenie nor McCaber have done themselves any favours toDay. Greenie looks suspicious for backing away from her suspicion of Nog and for voting for sally after some suspicion had been voiced about her (including a suggestion by me that I might vote for her). And McCaber's vote for Noggie is another one of those 'out of the blue' votes that's as flimsily reasoned as he suggests Nog's vote was yeterDay. Actually, it's worse. And I am not sure that I like his suggestion that Boro was a no-track kill, when it clearly wasn't. It makes me wonder whether there might be something to look for in the trail after all.

I am still toying with the idea of voting for either Lari or sally, on the basis of yesterDay's Hakon vote. But Lari has not appeared toDay and sally has said little of consequence. So there is nothing more to go on toDay for either of them. Which may, I suppose, be a reason in itself to vote for one of them. But, if I do, which one?

Also, am I missing something or has Nerwen still not explained why she didn't vote yesterDay?

This is in hindsight to be sure, but anyway. I probably could have said this yesterDay already (actually I think I did say people voting for Hakon or Morsul are "safe-voters"), but it's so much easier now.

But it was as easy to the wolves who know who are not among them already yesterDay...

So people voting for Hakon or Morsul I think were ones that wished to stay out of the fray as they were clearly the "easy lynches": the one being annoyed by everyone with his meta-reasonings and the other of his awkwardness.

But they both have been succesful in what they do in the earlier games. It's only their way of playing that clearly makes people think they're easy to vote. As they both turned out gifteds (well, innocents anyway) I can't help feeling those who have played with them lately and being lupine now would have wished to do away with them with both of these reasons.


So Morsul was voted by:

Spm - I would have thought he would have made a smarter decision in the beginning but going on the odd one (hindsight, yes, but really Spm?). The wolves seldom are that out in the open even if Morsul had been one in the last game: you just can't make your vote based on that Spm! You should know it, so why?
Loslote - suspiciously placed vote, but less suspicious than Spm's (who still would be the cobbler I think).
Hakon - the seer but clearly one who doesn't read too much - or doesn't write out what he reads...
Boro - Bear, so out for an easy lunch? Probably so.
Fea - an artsy kill suitable to her persona. Could be whatever... I mean that is a real 50-50. It's not only "I wouldn't put it past her" but it would also be "she would do just that". The only problem is what is the motive behind what she did?


The only thing about the Hakon voters I think is worthwhile mentioning (that I think has not been noted before and might bear some wittness) is the following.

Hakon was greatly disliked on D1 - for a reason. But it is interesting that he was voted in concerto by Sally and Lari one after another - in a situation where Morsul had three votes and Spm had two.

Now are they two innocents who just looked at Morsul as being just his odd self and thought Spm innocent - and thus went on Hakon who had been disliked by many.

Or were they (one of them) thinking they could override the Spm wagon by voting Hakon who was so much disliked while believing the Morsul-wagon was too easy or not-backed by the late-voters?

As Morsul was not a wolf, the two had no reason to not let him get lynched (were they wolves / either of them being one). But picking another similar-kind of subject is an interesting choice indeed... did they (one of them) foresee Morsul was getting lynched and thus they thought it better to vote for someone else not to be involved in the bandwagon?

Or did they wish to leave open the chance Spm would be lynched - or not take part in lynching of either Morsul or Spm they both (one of them) knew was innocent?

I'm not sure I can follow my own logic anymore... or whether I should be able to put it into a more simple form...

And it's late. Voting time in a second...

Okay... Greenie, McCaber, Lari or Sally I think will be my choices toDay.

Just who?

There are so different reasons to vote for anyone of them...

Well, I did say I wouldn't be able to be around a whole lot due to the stresses of RL...

More thoughts:

There seems to be a lot of rows going on toDay. Not that it's a bad thing...keeps the Day entertaining. I believe it was Roa who suggested the row between Nog and Greenie as wolf-on-wolf, which is possible since I can see someone like Nogrod pulling that off. And they'd both probably have fun with it. Then again, it's just as possible that Roa and Nogrod are wolves together for the same reasons. There's not enough evidence now to support these theories, but I do think it's a good idea to keep an eye on all interactions between players, both the arguments and buddying up.

The one thing about Roa that stuck out to me, was that she seemed rather defensive after reading Greenie's comments about her. Greenie was playing with the idea that she might be a wolf, but I'm not sure she was actually seriously considering voting her.

Iti's McCaber's vote right now that really bothers me. It's purely retaliatory, which is a horrible reason to vote anyone.

Fea is also making me very uncomfortable. She provides almost no substance until others start to comment on it. And even when she does provide substance, she avoids sharing much opinion on other players. Can you further explain exactly why you suspect me as well as the others on your list, Fea?

Loslote still hasn't shown up which is disappointing. I'm still not liking her for her vote, but I'd like to actually hear from her before pursuing her any further, so hopefully she will show up soon.

EDIT: 2600 posts, yay!

And "it's possible" was all I said. I wasn't trying to spot the cobbler per se, I was analysing the Morsul voters. I ran out of time last night (with a lower-case n). Fea is next.

Actually, looking back, I see that she was here right at the beginning of the Day. But the point still holds. There is nothing much more to go on with her over and above what happened yesterDay.

This is pretty much the only substantive contribution that sally has made toDay. It's rather vague and sketchy, to say the least, although she does promise to come back later with further thoughts.

When it comes to it, the only real evidence against either of them is their vote for Hakon and Boro's mentions of them. Its very thin and, even though I do think that a Wolf is quite likely to have voted for Hakon, I don't really feel able to vote for either toDay without hearing more from them.

Which leaves McCaber and Greenie out of my current principal suspects. I am wary of this growing consensus against them, of which I am now a part, but they do both look rather suspicious. Probably more so than anyone else at the moment.

I am going to take a look back at their posts toDay.

Lari and Sally would have to have been in cahoots and try to save Spm their mate in crime for that scenario to be true... or then one of them (or both?) just wished to lay low and make a safe and probably nonsequiential lynch?

Whatever, I find it too blind a try to separate between the two and find them less suspicious as my other two candidates. But if they are not going to step up their act I will actually call for lynching them, if we have time for it.

But Greenie and McCaber actually look worse to me.

My only problem is to say which one seems more guilty. I wouldn't be surprised if both of them were wolves - or have you seen them talking about each other?

That actually is a point. McCaber has been really careful not to suspect too many people, well basically none but me (making a 180 degree turn from D1 when I had not suspected him so far), and Greenie made a vague list saying over half of the people were suspicious but she put into that list people she could only say "not much to say" - or things like that.


Of the two I'd say McCaber looks now more the one that just doesn't follow the thread and plays with his left hand while Greenie clearly is up to the situation and looks like more conscious of what she does.

Blah...

++ Greenie

Edit: X'd from Brinn onwards...

Couldn't it mean we're right about them then? :)

Well, a cobbler wouldn't like that. Or a wolf-mate... :rolleyes:

And why say you're no part of the "consensus" but still give the impression you agree with it? Isn't that a bit wolfy / cobblery - I mean when baddies are going down you try to both disagree and agree in hope of both trying to prevent it but leaving a trace you were actually suspecting them?

:D


Okay, hoping to see you toMorrow... Make a good decision!

Brinn, thanks for digging into the Nog/Greenie/Roa triangle, you took the words right out of my keyboard. I was starting to feel slightly uneasy about Roa's vote for Greenie - coming at the moment when it started to look like Nog might vote somebody else - and just had the horrible thought, "What if Greenie was right?" Agree it's far from conclusive, but good to have the idea out in the open and keep it there for toMorrow.
Especially now that Nog has voted for Greenie after all.
(There maybe another explanation for this collusion, of course...<3)

Gah. Voting time.
++Fea
For reasons given above. And because Poe said in The Principle of Composition there's nothing more poetic than the death of a beautiful woman.

Good night.

I'm getting this out right now before anything else: I'VE BEEN SICK PEOPLE. I EVEN MENTIONED THIS TO MIRA AND MENTIONED IT YESTERDAY IN MY POST. READ PEOPLE.

I finally feel better, I've been feeling LIKE AN ELEPHANT HAS BEEN SITTING ON MY FACE for the past few days.

I will be back with an actual post but I've just been getting really annoyed about this.

It seems to me that, based on these reasons and given that it was Day 1, her vote for Noggie yesterDay was quite reasonable. I have myself noted his tendency to exagerrate things to make cases against people. And it's fair to say that his early suspicions yesterDay did focus on those who had already come under some scrutiny. So, I would have expected her to prod and probe him further toDay. But she has done nothing of the sort. Instead, she has backed off and turned instead to the 'submarines', perhaps because they will put up less of a fight.

Looking back on her posts, however, what struck me most was her list at #194. First off, it's one of those lists which says very little. Most of the comments are of the 'seems innocent' or 'too little to go on' variety. Her main substantive points are against Nog, not surprising given her previous vote for him, and Roa, who she thinks "so sensible it frightens" her (which could be an attempt to win favour by flattery). I don't like these kinds of list as they give the impression of helpfulness without actually saying much of anything at all. Which is potentially Wolfish behaviour. Second, she says of sally in this list that there is 'too little to go on', and yet ends up voting for her, without sally having said anything more, because she was "maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines" (#215). From nothing to go on to maybe the most evil of the quiet ones with little reasoning that I can see in between? Hmm.

I have made up my mind.

++A Little Green

I'm here. I'm reading. I'll post in a minute...

Fea

#57.Posts in verse, parodying "The Raven". Excuses her late appearance. Criticises Morsul's faulty logic and explains what's wrong with it. Is confused by the "Friendly Wolf" affair. Is annoyed by Mira's calculation error.

#61. Banter.

#64. Banter.

#112. Another verse-post. Says it would be in the Bear's interest to kill the wolves and vice versa. Further explains to Morsul what is wrong with his reasoning.

Up to this point I have no problems with Fea, as she is making sense and a couple of her posts have real substance.

Here is where things start to look bad. She's practically saying she'll be voting one of the top candidates simply because they annoyed her. I can't see that she mentioned Hakon before, while she had been addressing Morsul as though she thought his errors of logic were an honest mistake.

#167. Casts fifth and final vote on Morsul, commenting "I think I'll just seal this..."

No other reason given.

What to make of this? It looks highly cobblerish, but as we have all learned the hard way, wolves quite often impersonate the cobbler. There is also the problem that Fea is one of the "wild card" players, who might just do this as an innocent. You never know.

So, it's again quite inconclusive, but I'd say she's the most suspicious of the surviving Morsul voters.

EDIT:X'd since Pitch at #247.

Quite possibly. Hence my vote.

Actually, I was accepting that I was now (not no) part of the consensus.

Nightie Night all.

No, I didn't, sorry. I didn't vote because I couldn't get to a computer in time, that's all.

EDIT:X'd with SPM.

It's been noted, stay calm. Glad you're feeling better.

So it's Greenie and Fea who look to be on the gibbet?
I've been watching the interactions between Greenie and Nog for two days now trying to get the right feel of that situation. Nog has more of an innocent feeling. I didn't like the McCaber vote of his, but his explanantion looked believable. Then again, I don't think I've witnessed him as a wolf before, so it's possible I could be entirely wrong.
Greenie's Day 1 vote was understandable I guess, in that I'm pretty sure she's done it before. The Sally vote toDay is a bit more enigmatic. She didn't actually say much about Sally before she voted that I recall. And who's voted for Greenie thus far? Roa and Nog?
Fea makes me distinctly uneasy. Her vote yesterDay for Morsul couldn't help looking suspicious, coming just before DL, and then there was that bit about 'sealing this'. She stayed with the poetry for much of this Day. Then, when pressed, she gave the names of a few she found suspicious, but basically just seemed to go along with the crowd.
And McCaber- is he just busy, or what? I really don't like the look of toDay's vote.

Decisions, decisions.....

x/d with SPM, Lottie, and Nerwen

All right. Partly on a gut feeling, partly what I've said.

++Fea

I voted Morsul with the noted gusto because the top two on the chopping block were him and Sauce, and I preferred to see Morsul go than Saucie.

I'm here, I'm here, sorry for being so late.

I voted Morsul because I thought he was most suspicious. I was not bandwagoning. I was totally surprised when I saw that Hakon, Fea, and Boro jumped on it.

Now I don't know who to vote. Sally, Fea, Lari, Nerwen, Greenie...I think they all look guilty...I have no idea which is worse.

As such, I should add that I would much prefer you not vote for me.

I'd also like to note that I stated a solid four hours before deadline that I was going to vote for either Hakon or Morsul.

Which was actually prior to the first vote for either of them.

So the suggestion that I jumped onto a bandwagon? Faulty. If you want to set me up, you might want to try claiming that I started a bandwagon.

Enough with the paranoia, please. Far from setting you up, I haven't even said I'm going to vote for you. I said I would analyse the Morsul-voters, and you happened to be one of them.

If I do vote for a Morsul-voter, well, yes, it's probably going to be you. However, I'm also considering others, including Greenie, because I agree with the people saying she looks suspicious.

Okay, list time! ;)

Brinn - has not been super active. Suspected me - okay, I can see your point. Made good points. I don't suspect her much at all.
Fea - made a good point in #268. I still suspect her, but I'll let it slide for now.
Greenie - I find her suspicious, but don't have much to say that hasn't been said already.
Inzil - seems quite reasonable. I don't suspect him yet.
Lari - has been sick, but promised us a real post. *looks forward to it*
McCaber - wow. Okay, there's one I forgot to mention in my last post - now HE looks suspicious.
Nerwen - didn't make on in time to vote. Analyzes people. Looks genuine.
Nog - looks genuine. More so than last game, when we know he was. Hmm...okay, paranoid thoughts aside: not suspicious.
Pitchwife - made good points, doesn't seem suspicious, nothing out of the ordinary there.
Roa - I haven't gotten much read on her, which is strange. Normally you really notice her. But I doubt if she's a wolf.
sally - was sick. Not very active. Fairly suspicious, but doesn't scream "wolf".
Saucepan Man - I think he's genuine, as I've said before. What he's said today doesn't really change my mind either way.
wilwa - says she may have to drop out. Either she's really busy and telling the truth, or she's a very clever little wilwolf. Ah, well. Not toDay.

So far, Cabbie's the most suspicious. I'll probably vote him toDay...but that may yet change.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

Oh, and him, too. He's another I might vote.

I'm just awaiting inspiration at the moment.

I'm sorry - I've got to go. I apologize.

++ McCaber

Sorry!

Or its sheer dumb luck. I was a gifted or wolf(it alternated) for the first six games I played and was made, intentionally, an ordo in Boro's game. At this point I'm thinking its all luck. He doesn't have to be doing something right.

Also why are we all assuming he dreamed of Boro? Its an easy guess, but its not known. For all we know he dreamed of Fea or Sally(other good dream choices).

I saw this after my other post and just wanted to say thank you.

How do you suppose we do that? It's Day 1. What, we analyze people's greeting posts? "Oh Nog said Hi, but Sally said Hey THAT MEANS THEY ARE WOLVES". While I would love a productive Day 1, most of the time when a baddie is lynched on Day 1, unless a Seer reveals, it is luck. Looking for slip ups on Day 1, fine, but how often do wolves really leave traces that you can still till one of them is killed?

If we all followed your rules we may get a wolf, or in future games wolves would speak up more and become more intelligent. Then how would you vote?

First of all, I did appear right at the beginning of the Day(and I just saw your mention of that...maybe I'm not as better as I thought considering I've read that post five times already and just saw that). And went to bed before anything of consequence happened. Second, and this is a general second, why is everyone assuming(and by that I mean SPM, Inzil, Pitch, Greenie, and Nog), assuming that since Sally and I voted(and to be honest I didn't really notice Sally's vote when I voted) for the Seer that was are automatically evil? Did all of you see that he was the Seer? Because I didn't. I was annoyed.

This is based on our votes? Really? First of all, why would the wolves do that anyway? There are four wolves right? Kill one there is still three. Saving one would be pointless from their perspective.

And fine, I'm going to be defensive but let's take a look at the "hey Sally and Lari both were not really there and voted for Hakon...THEY MUST BE EVIL" people(note post numbers included):

Starts with a slight mention by Pitch in 179, where he says we unnerve him, SPM adds in 186, Brinn is annoyed with us in the next post because we voted for him because we thought he was annoying, interesting to note, moves to Inzil, who really seems to jump on the whole "wow we really need to look at them" and I apparently look worst than Sally. Why is that Inzil? Because I voted second?

Nog, how did I got from, in post 203, a"non-interested ordos or people with RL hindrances"(quote also about Lottie) to evil?

And now I see Lottie jumping on.

Honestly I don't like how much Inzil pushes this whole thing. Actually, I don't like Nog either for that matter. Brinn's comment also caught my eye.

Vote Count Anyone?
 

Lari, I never did say I suspected you; I simply suggested that I was wary of your vote. Because I still don't think it was justified. But I think you're overreacting a bit. So people are suspicious of your voting. You have every right to defend yourself, but there's really no need to get upset. It's not like people are voting you left and right. Anyway, your recent posts give me the impression that you're more likely a frustrated innocent than anything else.

It's pretty well assumed because Boro was the only one Hakon hinted towards. No, we can't know it for sure, but if it were someone else, there's no way for us to tell. Anyway, Boro's already dead, so it doesn't really make much of a difference.

Because he listed them as possible Bears. They are not possible Bears. Had he dreamed them, he would have known this.

Oh, but they do, quite often. True, an innocent is more often lynched on Day One, but then the wolves often give themselves away by their Day One voting.

Mmmn. How would we we vote if everyone openly votes at random on Day One, thereby leaving no traces whatever, which seems to be your plan? You said the exact same thing last game, too.

And talking of paranoia... why are you acting as though there's a huge bandwagon against you, Lari? No-one's voted for you. No-one's even talking about voting for you, last time I checked.

EDIT:X'd with Nienna and Brinn.

Jumping on what? I said I looked forward to your "real" post. How is that jumping on a Lari bandwagon? Or what else were you talking about? :confused:

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

I can understand your wanting to give an explanation, but aren't you overdoing it a bit? Have you received any votes yet?
I didn't like the way you and Sally suddenly appeared and quickly voted Hakon, using suspicions as voiced by other players. That's all. And it seemed you looked a little more off than Sally because you came in so closely behind her, echoing her for part of your reason, then adding the bit about Hakon's insinuating the mods would lie, which was also said by someone else previously.

x/d with Brinn, Nerwen, and Lottie

Really? Cause here are his posts that might point to things.

He talks about the bear twice and mentions, I guess in a way, a lay out of possible dreams in a sequence he would go in. So lets assume that. That means his first dream was Fea not Boro. That he was going to dream of Boro last Night.

Just saw on the admin thread that Wilwa's out. I wonder how that'll affect things?