Lots to do today, but I'm trying to keep up.

This makes Brinn look a little better to me.

Right, so we apparently have an innocent Shasta, and an innocent phantom. I was leaning toward the latter anyway, just because that's the way he was coming across.

I still think it likely there was at least one evil vote behind Eomer's death. Doubtless, all will take it for granted it wasn't mine. :rolleyes: I'll try to make it a point to focus on the other three when I get a chance.

So, who was Boro?

Well, the only gifted I could see pulling such a ploy that could lead to dying this early would be Amandil, which I could see potential hints for at the beginning of his first post (bolding mine): and here (boldding mine again): However, the fact that he didn't take it further or counter-reveal could suggest that he'd be quite worried that it'd backfire, which I would normally expect from an innocent that doesn't want to get the real gifted killed. However, since we know he's a gifted, it's possible that he was worried about getting lynched/killed himself, which would make him most likely to be either Elendil or Anarion, but Isildur is also very possible. Let's hope he's the latter. I will look into this more when I return in a few hours.

Like Lottie, who also seemed to gain a sudden rush of votes at the end (suspicious? I'll need to look when I come back), she came into the game quite late, so I thought she deserved a chance to prove herself today.

Also, Sally, you're a terrible person for writing this:
I bet after posting it, yours was an evil laugh. Your other post was rather inconceivable, though.

I've been trying to figure out Phantom's vote.

With Phantom clearly innocent I'm wondering if he saw something we didn't... Phantom really only mentions Lottie once saying her post #57 is odd. Then goes and votes her. May have just been a day 1 throw away vote but otherwise I can't see a reason.

x'ed with Eonwe 3x

Lottie-votes are hardly suspicious, as the two people who cast them are known innocents (Boro and phantom).

I'm not saying they're suspicious. I'm wondering what they saw that was suspicious enough for a vote. Lottie looks fine to me so far but I'm wondering if I'm missing something they saw is my point.

Sorry, Morsul, I was reacting to Steve's post rather than yours ^^

Agh. I should be voting pretty much now, and I feel I'm going to be badly off due to the fact that we haven't heard of phantom and his dream (or none?) yet. I think I'll go for one of the three late Eomer-voters, for I don't think I have time and energy to go through everyone today and I'm pretty sure there's at least one KM in there.

The problem is, all of them look decent to me at the moment - or at least reasonable in the way they've seemed reasonable to me before. However, there's something in sally's behaviour that's fishy - the same fishy as always or a wolfy one, I dare not say, but fishy anyways.

Indeed, Morsul was relatively jumpy. However, I feel like that's something that is easy to grab as a wolf and start elaborating from that. And, not knowing Morsul outside of this game, his logic would still seem valid enough, and I feel like sally's tearing it apart just for the sake of the process. Also there was a lot of suspicion towards Morsul yesterday - maybe sally's following from that, assuming that it will be easy enough to get people to hunt Morsul down.

Did you read what Morsul wrote? He assumed that Eomer was a seer and you were guilty, these two parts of the same set of interpretations? It would make sense to vote for you then instead of Steve. Two relatively reachable goals at once - saving the seer, lynching a KM.

On Eonwe I can't really get a good read, but he's definitely less suspicious than sally. And Brin, I feel like I'd need to understand the situation with Boro and the KM and why exactly was Boro killed a lot more to decide that Brin is either innocent or quilty, though I feel like there's a hint there for either. My brain just can't get around it, and even though I try and try to grasp it is escapes. I think I'm leaning to voting for sally pretty strongly, but I'll have a moment still, so if someone has any reasonable objections or points to make about it, I'll listen before I cast my vote, which will happen in about 30 minutes.

I think last night's dream went to Shasta. Unless I read it wrong:


Which would mean in phantom's chain he'd be the dreamer tonight if hopefully Boro was isildur and not Elendil or Anarion. in which case it's a tossup which I hopes comes heads up for the villiage not the other way around.

thus the first night's should've gone to phantom, but i'll leave that for someone else to explain. I'll have to go, so ++sally, do catch some baddies while i'm gone, please!

Awake and feeling much better than yesterday. Trying to get caught up...

So Nerwen posts a bit discussing Phantom's plan.

A while later posts her list then mentions suspicions on me but doesn't vote me because it'd be bad to bring another candidate forward.

Ends up not voting at all.

Not much to go on rather careful and with no vote nothing to really discuss about her. the play first day was very clean. As I've said before almost too clean.

I disagree. For one, I never said I didn't suspect anyone already on the voting list...obviously I'd never vote for someone I didn't suspect. And I mentioned it because I do believe spreading the votes out too much unnecessarily is a bad idea. When the votes are spread out too much it makes it easier to end with a multiple person tie and I hate ties. Now if someone doesn't suspect anyone already voted for, yes it's worth spreading out the votes to bring in a candidate you actually suspect. But if you suspect multiple people, why not vote for the player among your suspects that has already been voted for and increase the chances that one of your suspects gets lynched.

Morsul was one among three suspects I listed in my post. What makes you think I suspected Morsul more than Eomer? Because I didn't.

Yeah...
Check the "elaborate ploy" option. Sorry if that's annoying, but I just wanted to float as many kill strategies as possible to see if people would toss out other interesting possibilities, or if anyone would agree with one of them in such a way that indicated a bit too much familiarity. Additionally I wanted to see what reactions would be to Boro being assumed to be various Gifteds (if the KMs hoped he was Elendil but then he appeared only to have been Anarion would perhaps a trace of disappointment leak through?). Etc. etc....

Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. :rolleyes: Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

Really the only explanation I could think of was recalling things he'd said in previous villages, along the lines of- "You may as well just trust Phantom from the start, as he can be quite beneficial. If you're wrong and he's evil, you're screwed anyway, so you may as well trust him and hope for the best."

So in light of such comments what he was doing made perfect sense, but it was still a bit annoying.

So yeah- that's why I was most definitely concerned with passing info to Elendil, because I had the info. But naturally I wasn't about to appear as if I had info, particularly after I came to suspect that Boro was purposefully pretending to be a dreamer so as to clearly not be Elendil in the eyes of the KMs, which frankly was a pretty good idea. (Unfortunately this group of KMs seems not to be operating within the restraints of logic. :rolleyes: )

Anyway, Shasta- thanks for giving me that time at the beginning to run my little games. I sort of figured you'd sit back and watch for a while since you held the trump cards...

So confirmed innocents:
Phantom
Shasta
Brinn

Leaves :
Nerwen
Inzil
Lottie
Manwe
PomPom
sally
Eonwe

3km 2 hidden gifteds. Looking like Elendil is down... but we have two protectors left so yay for that...

I suppose if there's one tiny silver lining. If Elendil is down and Anarion is still around that frees him or her to defend who they'd like instead of following a predictable pattern which might put some pressure on the KM.

I can certainly understand wanting to keep Eomer's role under wraps, but the alleged logic of this falls apart under further inspection.

1. Dun put Sally on his three person list. Fair enough. Everyone had a list, and everyone's bound to be on one or two people's lists at least, so no problems here.

2. Eomer voted for Sally. The logic holds up so far. If Eomer is (or rather was) the seer, it makes absolute sense for him to vote for a guilty Sally if Dun had her on that list.

3. Dun voted for Eomer. If Dun received a dream, he'd know the results, but not who sent it to him, so there's little chance he would know not to vote for Eomer. However, if he's the one who received the dream and it said Sally was guilty, why wouldn't he vote for Sally? Therein lies my biggest problem with the way Morsul is explaining his motives. He's claiming to act upon information that the person who had it didn't even act upon.

4. Morsul voted for Sally. As far as his suspicions go, that's fine, as he had voiced his suspicion of both Sally and Steve, and Eomer wasn't actually in too much danger at the time, so it's not a huge issue, but when he further "explains" his vote, he refers to his vote as "try to get a least a semi-not random vote in." If he were basing it off the dream chain listed above, it wouldn't be random at all.

So yes, him voting for me kept Eomer "safe" for the Day (except for the part where Eomer was lynched at the end of it). However, voting for me rather than Steve also gave Steve a better chance of survival. It's often convenient for a villain to suspect their fellows, yet in the end decide an innocent is a better lynch option. It's not a new trick.

Am I ready to say without doubt that Steve and Morsul are fellows? Certainly not, but if one turns out to be against us, I'll not be surprised if the other is as well. Morsul's quasi-guilty behavior is definitely not a notion that should be tossed aside as Pom is doing, which is another concern entirely.



Not x'd, but I do need to read everything since the quoted post in more detail.

Well, it sounds rather likely now that Boro was Elendil, which is certainly disappointing. If not, then phantom or me would probably receive the next dream, so by toMorrow (assuming both of us survive), we will probably know Boro's identity for sure.

On the bright side, at least the village has three known innocents and the baddies can't eliminate us all at once. Plus, they still have the ranger to worry about.

Btw, after mentioning ties in my last post, I just noticed this in the rules:

Which is an interesting concept I don't believe I've seen before. Certainly better than having both parties lynched, though a no-lynch isn't exactly helpful either. I suppose if multiple candidates are neck and neck, and a player doesn't think any of them are guilty and putting another candidate into play would be a throwaway (or a KM wants to save a packmate), creating a tie could prove useful...though also risky.

I wasn't 100% on the idea hence semi-not-random. It was just the only thing I could see that would explain his vote at all. And you're right I Should have looked at Zil's vote but I didn't because I didn't think to. Luckily I'm not any police force, solve rates would be awful.

Sally's suspicions of me today seem much better than yesterday. and she's right Pom sort of tossed them aside fairly easily... a bit suspicious. (I know someone not suspecting me is more suspicious than the person who does, welcome to my brain)

I find the last sentence amusing. I actually have solved one today, with what seems like 100 other things going on. ;)

I'm glad to see the focus on Boro has eased somewhat. Yes, it was important to take a look at what might have made him a target, but that only takes us so far.
It's only useful in ferreting out baddies if he said something that we can narrow down as alarming to one in particular. Otherwise, they went after him for A. Looking like Elendil; or B. Looking like a Gifted.

Anyway, I think YesterDay's votes are more helpful. Also, just skimming the last few hours, I think people have some interesting points about Pom. Some of her suspicions look rather forced.

Here and reading.

As soon as I get back I'll do a look at the voting yesterday and give impressions...

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game. :confused:

Okay, general thoughts on voting alone. First, the votes-

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie
Brin ++ Eomer (2)
Sally ++ Eomer (3)
Phantom ++ Lottie (2)
Steve ++ Eomer (4)

DID NOT VOTE
Nerwen
Manwe

Okay, when I write down some basic assumptions regarding the vote, I find most of them are ridiculously obvious (which in itself says something perhaps). But I'll say them anyway just so you see the evolution of my thinking.

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

So, given the above three observations, we are left with three basic hypotheses-

1) If Steve is then Morsul is.
2) If Sally is then Inzil is.
3) If Inzil and/or Sally is then Lottie is.

Now obviously a single day of voting can hardly be deemed overwhelming evidence, particularly with Manwe and Nerwen not voting at all (they could both be KMs thus rendering all theories void). But still- we have to start forming theories somewhere.

I'm off to work, but I'll be rereading Day 1 and today if at all possible with those potential links in mind and see if anything jumps out and sabotages them or corroborates them....

(Should be able to check in periodically from work, and I'll be off in time to vote, no worries there.)

See this while incorrect conclusion makes sense to me. If I was Sally I'd suspect me. It was my careless research that's at fault but there it is. Does this clear Sally for me? No but this looks like a lot of work just to throw an innocent under the bus for a KM.

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

X'ed phantom

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

Self-preservation is equally an interest of baddies. Just saying.

It's also possible that none of the KM's were seriously in trouble; just that Eomer got a vote or two from them because he was in peril and innocent.

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling:p

EDITX'ed with Sally

Ah. Missed that. Sorry. That's what sometimes comes from a quick skim.

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

EDIT: xed with Zil

That is an interesting thought. Didn't think of it that way. Still not an inkling of who to vote for. Sally seems pretty innocent, Pom is more suspicious but Lottie makes a good point.

Most others don't have enough to go on yet. Will look at Eonwe seemed a tad off yesterday maybe I'll see something new in yet another read.

Players I will not vote for toDay:
Shasta (known innocent/gifted)
Phantom (known innocent)
Brinn (known innocent)
Sally (innocent and also too shiny and adorable to kill)
Mänwe (he may be modfired anyway, and what he has said isn't lynch-worthy)
Nerwen (no worries about her at present, whatever that means, and she's not around, so I'd like to not risk it)


Players who remain:
Morsul
Dun
Lottie
Pom
Steve


I really, really don't like how Pom shoved aside my suspicions of Morsul, as well as her attitude toward Brinn and Lottie. As of this moment, I'd say my top suspects are Morsul, Pom, and Steve, though I'll admit that my suspicion of them as a whole would lessen slightly if one of the others were shown to be innocent. I can't get any clear read on Lottie, and Dun isn't ringing any bells, so, at least as of now, I have my top three suspects (Pom and Morsul being a higher priority than Steve at present) and will be voting accordingly. If someone has a better idea, I'll gladly listen to it.


And now I need to go make dinner. Let's hope I don't burn my hand again. Seriously, I'm a clumsy cupcake....



EDIT: x'd since my last

I'm here now-thankfully its the weekend. Thoughts to come soon!

Innocent as the bright morning star or something poetical like that
Lottie
Shasta
tp
Brinn

I see no *reason* to suspect
Manwe
Nerwen
Sally
Pom

I see no reason to suspect...but feel like I maybe ought to
Zil
Morsul
Steve

Unless I start seeing actual reasons for suspicion, I'll have to go with one of the three from the latter group. I don't like voting on 'well, he feels like he maybe might be a wolf...' so I'll be looking through the thread, seeing if I can't maybe find any more substantial reasons for voting. I don't have anything else to do until DL, so I should be around.

Well, I said I was here and reading, and then got pulled away. Let me get a few thoughts in order real fast.

Certainly there were other targets for a Pomwolf, but to seemingly discount her as a threat based on her suspicion of Brinn seems unwarranted.

As a matter of fact, I still feel Pom is somewhat dodgy and her suspicions seem forced. Barring new developments, that's probably where my vote will go.

Certainly not - but as an argument against Pom, her suspicion of Brinn is not a particularly valid one. I haven't really seen much evidence against Pom besides the 'well, she feels evil' argument I've been trying to avoid. Moreover, she does not, in fact, feel evil when I read her posts, so, while I'm making no arguments for her innocence, I'm also not blindly accepting any faulty arguments for her guilt.

Then again, there are Sally and Steve's late votes for Eomer. Hm.

x/d with Lottie

Like I said, I just think the suspicions don't look genuine.

So to you, who does have a "valid" case against them?

No one. That's my problem. :rolleyes: