Hm, actually, what Lommy wrote up here makes sense a lot to me. It really may be that Nog was voting Gwath yesterday simply because there was no one else to vote (although it was last minute and still other votes could have been cast f.ex. for me, like from Sally or Volo who voted about the same time... and Nog himself says he x-posted there with a lot, so who knows how it were?), it will also give one more reason to Gwath to vote me and not Nog, even though the bandwagon against him was already started (i.e. there was one vote for Gwath and one for Nog, now there was suspicion against Nog and Gwath voiced even some himself, so it might have been convinient for a wolf to simply jump on the bandwagon in the case Nog were innocent). It's just all their exchanges which would have to be made up by them... I don't really know.

As for Kath, that's another thing, and it's also possible for her to be Gwath's fellow packmate.

In any case, I'll be leaving now, but will be back in let's say three hours. I will probably have to vote early also today, short after that, and won't be here for DL. I can't probably think of much more than until now, so I will probably just vote for one of these two, or eventually some Oddwen if something else will happen. If Elf-Warrior or such is a Wolf, I won't bother with him now, as he's not around, and who knows, he may be modfired or whatever. In any case, there are other things to worry about, and if he is a wolf and we lynch all others, it will eventually surely come to lynching him when the village has four or so people :p

Hi I am here. Won't have much time til later.

Well it is now quite evident why Lhuna died - she clearly put the wind up the wolves with her suspicion of Gwathagor whoever she dreamt off ...

However wolf picks can be quite random - especially if there is a ranger or the possibility of a ranger, so it may be wise to focus on what the people we don't know about are saying than too much on the words of a dead ordo.

Hmm, some answers and then another look at what's going on I think now I've finally made it into the right thread.

So, Lommy. You didn't like me making everything very black and white and just having lists. That's how I've decided to work. I used to analyse a lot and turn myself in circles and just be confused, so now I make snap decisions and it seems to work a little better. For example, I had Gwath, Legate and Nog as suspicious and one of those at least turns out right! Of course I had little basis for suspicion, it was Day 1, I had very little more suspicion of Legate but just enough to edge him in front. Had I been trying to protect Gwath I would not have mentioned Lhuna possibly dreaming of him.

As to now, I think Volo's death makes sense. He hadn't been around much, looks like an attempt at a safe kill to me. Suspects wise, I'm actually inclined to stick with my previous ones: Legate and Nog. Although Nog is looking less suspicious to me toDay. He has toned down the aggrieved act a bit which definitely helps though it's still there. Legate ... I have nothing concrete against Legate but whenever I read his posts it just feels wrong, like every word is being too deliberately thought out.

I actually wouldn't be enormously surprised if we had a Gwath-Legate-Nog wolf triad. It may have been a bold move to suspect their own so early but I know Nog is a bold player and I wouldn't put it past Legate either.

I think Kath's above post makes my view of her worse, the way she acts looks somewhat wolfy, just overall, explaining yet staying back... simply, I had a bad feeling from it.

This is merely taking up one point I mentioned earlier toDay as an counter-evidence for Kath not being a wolf. Why not, but it's the only point, and it may be so that Kathwolf simply quotes it as well because she knows others (namely me) thought about it too, and also of course if she were a wolf, she might have mentioned it in the first place just for this reason. If there are other reasons why we should not think she were united with Gwath, she could add them and not just mention this one. You know what I mean? Maybe there aren't and she is simply clinging to what was voiced.

Or, if we have three wolves, then it's Gwath-Nog-Kath and then it'd be solved.

I don't know now, will, as I said, have to vote fast. I am not very comfortable with it and I also think I could have put more effort because I actually believe if we really properly looked through older posts, now when we know that Gwath was a Wolf, we could find the remaining one or two wolves by good analysis this time. Alas, I don't have time for this. Will be back in about an hour and cast my vote. Isn't it so quiet here?

But I think someone had already mentioned the possibility, so it didn't matter.

But Kath... you confuse me. Your response is too defensive yet there's something innocent in it. Also, I have the feeling that two of the remaining wolves will be found in the group formed by you, Nog and Legate, and you accusing them so loudly makes me wonder. Either I'm right, you're innocent and our minds work similarily or I'm right, you're not innocent and you're trying to win something by separating yourself from them so forcefully, or I'm not right and wolves are laughing at me. :rolleyes: Anyway, at least one of you is a wolf, or I'll eat my head. If the other remaining wolf is some sneakie excellent at playing innocent (Nerwen? Oddwen? even Mith or Sally? or the absent Elf-warrior?). But, whatever you say Kath, I think you're most probably guilty of you three, not because you're more suspicious than the others, but because it all fits better with you and one of Nog or Legate being fellows than with the two of them together.

edit: xed with Legate

Sorry, late night. Just got up and already have to run to class,
so I'm going to be quiet for a while.

Gwath and Noggie? Um, I find that highly unlikely as a wolf pairing. Kath, on the other hand, makes a lot of sense. I've been finding her kind of fishy for a while but haven't had any evidence to support it. I would be happy with a Kath lynch today, just to put that out there in case anyone wants to know.

Okay, I need to go to class; just felt the need to post SOMETHING before I went away for a while.



EDIT: x'd with Lommy

What? Why "or, if we have three wolves"? Isn't that the probable scenario? Or are there just two wolves in this game and they were you and Gwath and you just slipped? This is starting to be more and more confusing...

edit: xed with Sally

Sorry but this day seems to be much more busier I anticipated. But I have a few moments now and then before the deadline.

On the basis of votings there are three people I'd say are more innocent than not. In the order of their innocence in my eyes they are: Sally, Lommy and Oddwen.

Sally brought Gwath level with me yesterDay at the last minute while it would have been easy for her to vote me just saying something like "let's check Noggie out then" or something and thence gen an innocent lynched & save her mate. And as I said earlier it would be a bit too high a price with this many villagers left for a wolf to buy "credence" with a fellow-sacrifice.

Lommy's vote in the end of Day1 would have been really dangerous as wolf-game. When she voted four players hadn't voted yet and she brought Gwath to be the runner-up in a last minute.

Oddwen began voting Gwath and there clearly was a general mood in the air that Gwath might be one of the main candidates that Day. So a pretty bold move for a wolf - even if not as bold as Sally's or Lommy's were they wolves.

Anyway. I'm going to leave these three out from my condsideration as to who's our remaining wolves for a moment. It helps to focus.

EDIT: x'd with many...

Okay, good, I remember to do that to my fellow when I'm a wolf... ;) :p

Seriously though, now I'll finish the analysis on Gwath & Day2...

Hello, everyone. My apologies for prolonged silence, but I have had the most horrifyingly awful day in RL.

I need to read toDay's posts, and also re-read yesterDay's. As a preliminary comment, I'll say that I don't like the way certain people went after me for theorising about the implications of the Seer's lynching– especially now that we know Gwath was a wolf...

Some comments on Gwath and others
 

(Again, leaving some Gwath-Legate stuff out...)

Day2

This is not straightly related to Gwath, but rather to my Gwath-Kath-Nog theory. I'm afraid it's not waterproof.
What! Hey, was this a slip? Why is defending Gwath subtly so incriminating? Kath had said she was suspicious of Gwath, but not that much. Is she letting her real knowlegde (ie that Gwath is guilty) show here accidentally? Creepy. Or is this just a general "defending others subtly is suspicious" thing? Well, even in that case, I'm afraid, Kath looks quite furry...
Now I'm just wondering if wolf-Kath would say such a thing about wolf-Nog considering wolf-Gwath...

Like it has been said many times, Oddwen would be very bold if she was a wolf.

There's something odd, if not necessarily suspicious, in the relationship between Nerwen and Gwath & Nogrod. (I'm not implying they're a wolf trio... I would think it rather unprobable that Nogrod and Nerwen were fellows...)

The way Sally comments on Lhuna's possible dream of Gwath seems rather innocent.

If I believed in wolves giving each other advice, I'd take a second look at this.

Gwath voted Legate when there seemed to be little support for this suspicion. Was there so little that he could safely vote a fellow, guessing he would die, and his fellow would thus look good? Or was he double-bluffing and trying to make Legate look guilty by this logic? Or did he think Nogrod and maybe I or someone else would join the bandwagon?

Legate voted Nogrod saying:
Which I would call downright suspicious if my own attitude towards the situation hadn't been so much the same...

Okay, conclusions coming in a minute but I doubt it's anything new...


edit: xed with Nerwen

Of the rest the only one I have some clearer suspicions and that is Nerwen - I suspected her somewhat already yesterDay but with second look I'm a bit more worried.

Her reaction to Lhuna's seerdom after starting Lhuna-voting herself on Day1 looked both overdefencive and included that little slip I qwuoted you yesterDay. Also her answer to that was a trial to deny what she had said. If you don't remember it I'll just quote the basic lines.

And the original which I referred to was of course like this: Also she said earlier (her first post on Day2 that is)So in the same sentence she manages to say out aloud that she is innocent + say that anyway the wolves would have acted boldly (meaning "were she a wolf" she of course wouldn't have acted that way eg. making a double defence there for herself?).

In the end all the little she did yesterDay was defending herself even if there never were any strong suspicions on her.

Could be jumpy like a wolf...

EDIT: X'd wikth Nerwen and Lommy

My suspicions are strongest of Nogrod - and only slightly less of Sally, I've yet to be convinced she knew she was casting the tying vote between Gwath & Nogrod & thought it was a "safe" vote - Lommy is behaving much the same way as Nogrod, not sure if that's the family resemblance - there are also suspicions of Nerwen & ElfWarrior, Kath, Legate.

I guess that leaves Mith, who seems honest. I don't know about innocent, but honest certainly.

Drat, time flies when you need it to pause.

Late for work again,

++NOGROD

Okay: in short, my conclusion is my well-promoted opinion, ie that probably two, but at least one of Nogrod, Kath and Legate is a wolf.

Kath and Nogrod seem most like Gwath's comrades, but I'm not sure if it really looks like they were fellows. If they are, Kath is playing it riskily (although Nogrod's Day1 show of "wow, I consider Kath innocent" would nicely fit). That would also fit my mental image since Legate seems most innocent of the three in terms of general manner and because if he was Nogrod or Kath's fellow, he'd be a real backstabber. But that of course is a possibility...

Legate and Nogrod, now that would be a scenario. I would not be surprised to see them as wolves debating and suspecting each other like they have, but somehow, if you add Gwath accusing them both to the mix, it's just too much. But I've not discounted this possibility.

Kath and Legate? I think this is the second-best theory of these three, but there are weak points in this one as well. Kath would have been quite bold to vote Legate on Day1 and especially as to put herself in a situation where she was choosing the one to vote from her two fellows. Yet it's not impossible, I know...

I may sound a bit obsessed, but I simply think these combinations make most sense. Oddwen would be really really bold if she was Gwath's fellow (and she sounds a bit too honest to be a wolf), Mith would be really dishonest and uncharacteristic to claim ordoness when wolf, Sally would be madly bold and I just can't bring myself to consider Elf-Warrior yet. Nerwen is the only real possibility, but she doesn't stand out the same way my three top suspects do and her overall manner is quite innocent in my opinion. I would think it extremely improbable that there is more than wolf among these people, so that's why I'm all for lynching Nogrod, Kath or Legate, especially as I think that by removing one name from that trio we have the two remaining wolves named.

A miracle is needed if I'm not to vote any of those three toDay.


edit: xed with Oddwen

Okay, I read briefly and not too deeply up to about post 241 (hey this is just what I said - all the time NOTHING ,and now a million posts when I don't have time :rolleyes: ). Anyway, just some things...

Nope, that's just a matter of expression - imagine brackets there instead of commas. That is : "Or (if we have three wolves) ..." Speaking of it, I consider both as probable as the other - two or three.

OH MY! AGAIN! But Nog, you have said clearly the opposite at the start of the day. What caused this change of opinion? You were all "Why do you think Sally was innocent?" and when it was explained by that she leveled Gwath with you, you still said something like "And so what?" What the heck? Did you rethink it? Well nothing against it, but your behavior... oh my...

Anyway, heck. I am going to go for Kath now, but Nog sir, if you are a wolf, don't laugh, you won't see the daylight for much longer. I have to take care of my frogs now. Fare all well folks, except for the wolves!

++Kath

Although I must confess I feel uneasy. But whatever. See ya later...

P.S. And just can't resist:
Oh poor my, I hope that's not going to happen :D

I'm quite confident it won't... and besides, if it happens, I deserve it. ;)

Post 241? Ooh, Legate is in the future... :p

I. Do not. Like this. Now, I don't mean to be defensive, but I don't understand how mine was a "safe vote," especially since I was risking Gwath's death with only two votes left to come in. Now, if Noggie is a wolf, your theory is definitely valid, but I think it would be a better wolf strategy to doom him rather than tie up the vote with Gwath. Does that make sense? (Apologies, started this post and am finishing it in class so I kind of lost my train of thought. I'll be happy to clarify if needed)

Noggie himself seems off to me. When Legate found me innocent based on my vote for Gwath, Noggie did not find this significant. When we clarified the importance of my vote, he still had some sort of a "Bwah? Why is that relevant?" Then toDay he says he finds me innocent for the same reason Legate stated previously. This definitely strikes me as odd; he may have an explanation for this switch, or he may have re-examined the points Legate and I made. Either way, I still find him slightly innocent, though this latest behavior is disconcerting.



EDIT: x'd with everything since Oddie

Why is it so silent?

Because all vocal players are wolves and afraid of saying anything? And the quiet ones are behaving just characteristically? Okay, whatever :p but it just makes me wonder since it's quite close to deadline and usually there's far more talk at this time of the Day.

I'm tempted to vote and leave and close the computer for the rest of the day but that'd be quite stupid... *sigh* Speak up if you're there...


edit: typical... just when I was complaining about silence... ( = cross-posted with Sally)

Sorry, Lommy. Sally's not here right now. She died from being crushed by a giant pile of homework. Lack of sleep also contributed to her demise.



I'm here(ish) for the rest of the Day, so don't fret. Just going to be rather quiet as I'm rather tired and busy.

At least you make me feel less lonely...

Just got let outof work and need to apologise for my blonde moment at lunchtime. I didn't have my note book or much time and only when I started trying to work out who was left did I remember that you eejits :p lynched my baby girl .... not the wolves .. though on reflection I may well find out I was right first time. .. off to catch up... or make a random decision and enjoy the fabulous weather....

Okay, I've read through everything now and I can see Nogrod OR Legate as wolves, based on their relations with Gwath and on erratic behaviour, especially from Nogrod– but not both of them. Unless they have some elaborate evil masterplan going.

I agree with Lommy and Legate that Kath seems not “right” in her general manner, but when you look at when she’s actually done it’s not that much, apart from the possible slip Lommy noted and thing about her saying she suspected Gwath and then voting Legate.

Sally has mostly seemed okay, though I’m quite concerned about this:

Edit: X'd with Mithalwen.

Anyway, I have to vote now. I wish I had a bit longer to make up my mind, but here goes–

++Nogrod.

I think he looks rather the furriest.

I think we should lynch Nogrod or Kath toDay, then the remaining one toMorrow and if not both of them have been guilty, then lynch Legate next. Then if we haven't found any wolves, I'll eat my head. If we have found only one, I'll hit my head against the wall but swear to find the last one, and will be looking at everyone.

Any preferences whether Nog or Kath should go toDay? ;)


edit: xed with Nerwen... I can see a preference...

I still don't think Nog is guilty. Kath, on the other hand, gives me bad vibes. I really wish she could say more, but what I see doesn't seem right. I'd much prefer to lynch Kath, so unless something changes, I'll be voting her.


Oh, and for Nerwen. Sorry, I should have explained. I don't mind being accused, I'd just like to be accused based on something that makes a little more sense (no offense Oddie)

Well I never have a clue about darling duckie - and well somehow ..Nogrod just seems to be in woluf mode .. but I need to look seriously ....

If you all don't mind posting, I'd be most grateful. I have another hour and a half before class and I'd like to get a nap in. If not, that's fine. I'll wait a bit longer to vote, and if no one shows, I'll just vote and go crash. Otherwise I'll hold out until DL.

Back again...

Okay. First there is something rotten in here... (and this only one of the similar oddities I've seen in this game)

Legate says: What I said was: It was a question whether it was probable that wolves kill Sally - not whether she is innocent. Being the one to get a wolf killed is no reason for wolves to make their kill on. Retaliatory kills aren't the ones wolves would go for but ones that are useful to them.

But what the heck. You seem to have made your minds already.

Is it a village with a host of cobblers, two competing wolf-teams targeting the same person or something...?

Thanks for clarifying. That makes a lot more sense. :)


I need to look at more in-depth. Back in a bit.

Or is Nogrod playing the "I'm heated, therefore I'm innocent" -game once again? :p ;)

But yes, please Nogrod share your thoughts. I'd love to hear new suggestions and evidence. Because if this continues this way it's oing to be a boring game and in the worst case I'll have to eat my head. I really don't enjoy being this "sure" about things but I can't help it...


edit: xed with Sally

I'm quite relaxed indeed.

Somehow I'm not sure if I'll bother to make any defence to try and show my innocense. First of all it seems to be vain and secondly it looks like an impossible task as the "arguments" given this far are "I don't trust him", "I don't like the way he behaves" and such - like the retaliatory vote of Nerwen fex. What can I do with these?

Sorry for my quietness, all. Here's my list in rough order of suspiciousness:

Green light:
Mith. There's the possibility that Lhuna dreamt of her innocence, and I just don't see her being a wolf.
Oddwen. Possible seer dream and 2nd DAY vote for Gwath pretty much clear her.

Sally. Her vote seems to clear her, and because she said But if Nogrod is a wolf, that would negate this evidence because she would have been choosing between two wolves. However, she was on Gwath's case earlier so unless Gwath was a sacrificial wolf, she is pretty much in the clear.
Legate. If I had to guess, I'd say he's innocent. I think that Lhuna's gut feeling was right, that Gwath was trying to suck up to Legate. See post #36.

Nogrod: My feeling is that Gwath come against Nogrod too hard for him to be a wolf. But Lommy's arguments make me not completely write off the possibility that Nogrod is a wolf.

Lommy. Her vote against Gwath seems to clear her and I didn't find her that suspicious.

I wouldn't focus on any of these right now. I'd focus on my last two.

Yellow light:
Kath. I haven't seen much suspicious behaviour, but Kath being a wolf would seem to fit in with Gwath's lycanthropy. That doesn't mean she's a wolf, though.

Red light:
Nerwen. That thing about the wolves killing Lhuna doesn't sit well with me. Her being a wolf would also fit in with Gwath.

++Nerwen

What you can do, Nogrod, is make a clear and convincing vote for a wolf. Just my two cents.

Well. I tried to look backwards anyhow.

But there is no single point made against me! It's all discussion stating whether we lynch Nogrod toDay or ToMorrow. How do you people expect someone to try and show what he is if you just go on saying let's lynch him?

I think I have points enough for voting Nerwen - some made yesterDay some toDay and her vote was really neat and easy for a wolf. But if you wish to let her slip through your hands like you were ready to let Gwath slip yesterDay (I was after him from the first Day on remember - well you don't because it doesn't fit your "lynch Nogrod"-mania) then please do so.

EDIT: X'd with EW

Nogrod, I can understand you're frustrated. But sadly it doesn't mean you're innocent. You wanted reasonable reasons why you're a wolf. What about Gwath not voting you yesterDay, for starters?

And I'm sorry, I do have a couple of factual reasons to suspect you, and I've said them aloud, but mostly my suspicion of you is based on a gut-feeling or how you appear overall. I know it's annoying to be voted on such basis, but maybe you've just become such a good player that you don't make actual slips or mistakes or obvious trciks when you're a wolf that there is simply no other way of catching you than gut-feelings.

What a speech. If you're innocent, feel free to laugh at me. :D


edit: xed with Nog

I did one already yesterDay but that seems not to be enough... :rolleyes:

I looked back at the voting, and noticed something.

Gwath had the opportunity to seal Noggie's fate, but failed to do so. Now, of course, he had no way of knowing that he would tie with our Finnish friend, but that's not the point. This does look very odd....
But....in the last game, Gwath-wolf reacted the same and voted Rune instead of the other votee, which sealed his fate. In this case, the person he could have voted for was an innocent, so there was no risk to the pack.

I'm going to post this so I can catch up. How do the rest of you feel about this?

How do you expect me to know the motives of Gwath's votes? You really have pretty tough requirements if that is what one needs to do not to get lynched... :)

Votes

Oddwen -> Nogrod
Legate -> Kath
Nerwen -> Nogrod 2
Elf-Warrior -> Nerwen

I don't see why you see your situation as doomed, Nogrod. Wolvish over-reacting? I was just wondering if I dare to vote you or see if you get enough votes and prevent someone innocent-seeming from getting lynched.


edit: xed with Nog and Sally

I'm just not waiting for miracles... if you look at the stated voting intentions toDay you can make a count...

:rolleyes: and :D at Nogrod. I did not mean you should be able to explain it, just that it is one of the reasons why I suspect you. If you're not lynched toDay and I'm not killed next Night (or vice versa :p), I'll make you a proper list of the few factual reasons why you're guilty, but now time is running out...


edit: xed with Nogrod