Roa - why would Rikae lie about you being Tar-Miriel, if she were not a Seer having dreamt of you? A fake-seer would be far better off naming two innocents to gain their trust.

Please just accept that the village is not going to trust you. To do so would be illogical.

I didn't build a case- I did an analysis. Which if, you hadn't noticed, I did of everyone. Except of course, Rikae, because I thought she was innocent. Hardly an attempt to get everyone to vote Lal.
I don't know! Maybe she wants to cripple a vocal and helpful villager, and maybe she wants to make my analysis useless because Ifound something in there that she doesn't want anybody to look at! I don't know what her plan is, I just know that she's lying about being the seer, because I know I'm not Tar-Miriel.

There is one person who can come forward to stop the village from being mislead, and still not have us sacrifice any gifteds. The innocent who was actually protected last night. Please, don't let her drag the village down. If you come forward, then no true gifteds have to reveal, and we can stop Rikae from leading the village astray.

I never expect to be trusted, but I will not back down, because I know I'm telling the truth, whether you believe me or not.

Roa, and I sincerely thank you for it, you are a samaritan.

~~~

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

Still, if the four wolves attacked her last night, then they must have agreed that she was not lying when she revealed herself. So it is probable she is, unless of course as has been mentioned the Faithful's knew the Ranger would protect the Seer.

Mhm, perhaps Roa looses herself in her analysis, and looses us in her analysis. As has been said, she has the potential to continue confusing us with further analysis on us all. I would be content to ignore her now..vote for her even. If Rikae is not killed this evening by the wolves well we can then seriously doubt that she is the Seer, surely they could not risk letting her have another dream!

Another plus for voting Roa, is, if indeed she is the cobbler then we have eliminated a potential thorn in our side...however if she is innocent (I personally doubt it, I had reservations as Thin did over how 'useful' she was appearing.) Then it would be further proof that Rikae was lying to us. And if she were lying to us, well it would certainly look as if she were a faithful.

Would it not!?

Whither you like Roa or not and whither she is good or bad one has to recognise her skills! Even now when all evidence points towards her being the cobbler she mannage to put doubts in my mind.

I think the only sensible thing to do is to let Roa live for at least another day. . . That I think is the safest action to take.

About Legate. . .I deffinitly got a better feel from his last post than yesterday, it seemed more genuin. He is a bit flip-flopish/unsure about what he wants to do about Roa, I don't know if anything should be read into it or if it is as it seems, just normal doubts.

Some attention is gathering around Brinniel and I think it is justified, I know that RL has been pretty bussy for her so that could have something to do with why she is not saying much.

Something seems not to be right, maybe she is just a bit unsure about how to go about these affairs and therefor hold back when writting.

I also do not understand her suspcions against Hookbill, I suppose it might be kind of how iI felt about Legate.

EDIT: Cross Posted with Roa and Mänwe

Okay, I'm here and listening again... :)

Please Roa, you have worked just as a great cobbler would. I know this from some experiences (nasty and nice). It's clear that a Cobbler's game actually starts only at a later date, but there is one thing the cobbler must ensure and that is not to be dreamt of early in the game. With a player of your stature it's pretty probable to be dreamt of so you'd have to be extra helpful to gain the trust needed. And what have you done? Look at how people have reacted to the news: "I was going to praise you, but *sigh*". Great playing Roa! *bowsdown*

Okay it is possible. A Cobbler/Faithful Rikae, after really thinking she was going to be hanged decided to make a last desperate try for it. But that would be checked soon enough and with our numbers we should have no worries about it, yet.

And anyhow. The real Seer (whether she is Rikae or someone else) knows two names now and the ranger knows whether s/he protected Rikae last Night or not and thence who is right. So nothing to worry so long as they both stay low. The worst that we might have now would be the Faithfuls getting the identity of our gifteds.

EDIT: X'd from Roa onwards...

You'll have proof tomorrow anyways, because Rikae will still be alive.

It occurs to me now, that the wolves may have actually attacked her (assuming she's Tar-Miriel, because it would be a foolish move for a Faithful at this point), not realizing that she was the cobbler in disguise, and the ranger may have truly protected her. In which case, that's very good luck for the wolves side. As the rules state:

If this is the case, then I have nothing to prove my innocense except my death, or the true seer's reveal. I'll just be patient then. Rikae will be alive tomorrow, I garuntee it. And then you'll see. The true seer can stay hidden another day. And since I've said all I can say, I'll be signing off for toDay. I'll still be reading along, though.

EDIT: Cross with Nogrod

I'm not going to become all defensive at TGWBS's suspicisions, for I think it would be pointless. However, I will point out that I do not say much because I am a naturally quiet person. Perhaps it seems for you, but it's quite normal for me.

As for Roa's claims, I find it more likely she is lying than Rikae. After all, wouldn't it only be typical for a cobbler revealed to deny her role?

Back to Hookbill, he could very well, be honest, but then again, he good also be a good bluff. I'm still not sure about him...

And the more and more I am becoming suspicious of Legate. From his last post, he seems to think no one is suspicious and I find that a bit odd.

Anyways, I have to go to class and must vote very shortly, and I'm not quite sure who yet...

I always play this way, evil or not, and you know it, Nogrod. Analysis is what I do. Of course I'm not surprised you support Rikae- she named you innocent! As long as everyone believes her, you avoid scrutiny.

It's also be typical for someone who's innocent to deny that claim, as well, Brinniel.

I can see defending myself is getting me nowhere. Fine, believe Rikae. Lynch me and see that I'm innocent, or wait for her to be alive tomorrow.

Apologies one and all for my silence toDay. My other life has been diabolically hectic, and I have had been able to do little other than skim read the thread since I was last here and gain some kind of bearing on where we are. And so much has happened in the interim!

So, my two major suspects turn out to be the Seer and a confirmed innocent, and one of my other suspects has been lynched and shown to be innocent. A pretty typical start for me. :rolleyes:

Looks like I need a major rethink, and I’m not going to get much of a chance to do that toDay.

I must say that I am delighted that our Seer has been able to spot that confounded Tar-MiRoaiel before she sadly leaves us to join Lord Melkor. I don’t believe Roa’s protests for one moment (particularly as she was so quick herself to accept Rikae’s declaration when it came). Her mischaracterisation of my participation yesterDay was so breathtaking (to my mind, anyway) that I could not believe that there was no malice behind it. As I read through, I was coming round to the conclusion that she must be the Cobbler, since she has been behaving way to boldly for a Faithful, even by her standards. So thank you, Rikae, for saving me the bother of having to respond. And apologies for my vote yesterDay (although you did look mighty suspicious to me at the time – ah, the irony of Mith’s opening statement :( ).

One productive line of enquiry, it seems to me, will be to review Roa’s “handy dandy” analyses and see who she may have been trying to draw suspicion away from. For her instincts are good and she may have spotted a Faithful or two. It’s obviously not something to rely on, since she was no more knowledgable than the rest of us and could just as well have been wrong. After all, it seems pretty clear to me that she had Nogrod pegged as a Faithful, and she was clearly wrong there (as, indeed, was I). Still, it’s worth looking into. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that I will have much opportunity to do so toDay.

The more I see of Manwe, the more I am inclined to view him as innocent. His style does look strange sometimes, at first glance, but it seems to me that there is often good sense behind it. He looks to have been the only one really pressing Roa, at a time when she was in full flow and it was clearly needed. So, I still have an eye to those who were pushing him forward as a lynch candidate early yesterDay (although, then again, look where that idea got me with Rikae …).

Other than that, my brief review has left me with little to go on. The only thing that really stood out was how little some appear to have been saying in their posts. Other have noted this too, I believe. Hookbill in particular springs to mind here, but also Brinniel, Kitanna and Rune (whose capitulation to Roa’s analysis of him I found rather curious).

But I’m not sure that this is really enough to warrant a vote, particularly given the limited time that I have had available to review matters. I would rather vote for Roa (and, indeed, would take great delight in doing so :D), than risk lynching an innocent.

Oh and Gil, I tend to post in bursts because I cannot spend all Day reviewing and posting. My other life tends to inhibit me from doing so. At least I offer up more than a couple of lines ...

I will be back to vote, but I am not sure that my further participation toDay will stretch beyond that. Sorry.

Urgh...I really hate to be rushed, but I have to go, so I absolutely must cast a vote NOW.

Though I am still a bit suspicious of Hookbill, I do not want to vote him just quite yet. A little more observation is required.

Legate's posts seem to be careful...too careful. He seems to want to be on everyone's side, and as I stated before can't seem to find anyone suspicious to him. While I'm still not sure about him, I have no one else to go on and must vote:

++Legate

If I have time to look back before the Day is over (which I probably won't), I certainly will.

Now you're talkin' my fisherman! Even though I would hate to lose an innocent Roa - I really would - there is sense in this. I mean I first hesitated and was kind of agreeing with Rikae's suggestion that we do not waste our lynch on her toDay. But there is one problem there and it is as follows.

If we let Roa live and Rikae makes it through the Night, we can't say it is because she (Rikae) is a Faithful and has fooled us or because the wolves are bluffing us. And that in turn would mean both that we kill an innocent toDay with some pretty considerable probabilities and that we will be faced with real tough dilemmas toMorrow as to what to do, thus increasing the risk that our gifteds feel the need to reveal themselves...

As I said up above: we can't say. It's perfectly possible she's alive toMorrow whether we lynch you or not.

But a truly ingenious piece of work here! I mean this is perfectly possible! But it sure is highly unprobable as well. If Rikae is a cobbler fighting for her life all Roa says is possible.

Even though what Roa says is perfectly possible I would also like to remind us - and myself the most - that bogging down in this issue and not hunting for the Faithfuls would be an excellent masterpiece of Cobblery, the very thing Roa is here suspected of!

I'll need to take a break from this question now anyhow as my brain hurts... :p

I'll be doing what I can next to look for any possible villains around here as I'm not having all the time on Day3 (alive, if I am then).

EDIT: X'd with Spm & Brinniel

When there is a seer reveal in the last few moments of the day, I vote to save the supposed seer, based solely on the premise that if they are faking, it will soon be found out anyways. It's safer to save the "seer" and wait for the next Day than to start doubting all over again.

Unless ofcourse, no one believes you.

The only "malice" in that case was toward someone whom I still believe to be a Wolf, and I'm not surprised that you're only too happy to support Rikae. After all, it "saves you the inconvenience" of having to answer my accusations. How very convenient for you.

At least those aren't getting ignored. If that was your plan, you failed, Rikae.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod

OOC: Ok. Essay is done, internet is working, let's get down to some serious game playing!

Well, I was about to ask whether anyone else thought Roa was posting like a mad woman in order to put people off analysing her for some dastardly reason, and thanks to Rikae I have an answer! For all that some people have said we might as well leave her alive since she's not a Faithful I think it would be worth killing her. Firstly we're rid of a most confusing influence, and second the thread will get a good bit shorter!

Roa reviewed almost everyone before Rikae came out with her dream, but of course she has no more idea on who the wolves are than we do so I'm not sure how much help those will be. It is possible that those she thinks look more innocent may actually be Faithfuls thanks to Cobbler logic, but since she doesn't know for sure nor do we.

However, on Day 1 she did specifically say she thought Manwe was either Cobbler or Faithful, which I think clears him slightly. Roa's bold, but I'm not sure she'd be so bold as to add support to an already forming bandwagon if she thought he really might be a wolf. Not that early on in the game.

I have to admit that I skim read all of those long analyses today and so can't say anything about them yet. I'll go back and read them, see if they give me any ideas.

EDIT: Cross-posted with at least 3/4 people.

If you believed me, you'd have a baddie right now. And a second, because this is far too convenient for SPM. Maybe that was Rikae's plan- she knows SPM is a Faithful and wants to completely discredit my case against him. By the time you know she's lying, it will have been forgotten.

Okay, seeing as I started crying when I read Kath's post, I think I'm getting way too worked up about this. I'm going to take a break for a little while. Ask questions of me, if you want. I'll answer them when I get back.

Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.

And dang...that's a lot of work for just a Cobbler. :p

I feel we have no reason to think that Rikae is not the Seer, though unfortunately I suppose we will find out for certain tomorrow. I suppose the best course of action is mostly ignoring Roa, though we should try and use her "suspicions" and non-suspicions of people as leads.

The most obvious person she has expressed faith in is Legate. But...this is Roa. Why would her analysis leave him that spotless if she thought he was a wolf? While it is entirely possible (double bluff sorta thing?), I don't see her having any reason to do it, anyway. It wasn't as if he was in need of protection. We certainly shouldn't ignore her "I like him" business in the long run, but I think right now we will *crosses fingers* have more luck going in a more middle direction. Perhaps it would be better to look at those she barely acknowledged, and those she more mildly "defended" or approved of.

Of course, I doubt we have much information. Such a talkative Cobbler is largely out to confuse. Except that her analyses make sense! Considering she does not know who the wolves are (unless...the wolves or Mod Mac don't get to tell her or hint at whether her list is accurate? The wolves see it, though, right? But I suppose that doesn't tell them anything for certain, either.), perhaps she even did an excellent analysis sealing the death of one of her comrades. Sounds like something I'd do as Cobbler...well, when I'm not going after SPM just for the heck of it. I should have noticed it earlier; her sarcasm and persistent accusations are quite like the kind of Cobbler I enjoy. Thank you, Roa, for the entertainment.

I have one little quibble for Lommy...

I didn't vote for Rikae. I voted for Manwe (as you stated before), then I switched to Garin. Maybe I should try retracting a vote to vote for someone again to see if anyone notices. ;)

Right now I feel like Hookbill, Brinniel, and Lommy all have a bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts (yes, I used "feel" twice. So lynch me.), but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible. I think Brinniel's vote for Legate, though it is far from baseless, is a very easy vote - with the revelation of Roa as the Cobbler, the easiest choice for a vote is in fact Legate simply for her praise of him. Perhaps it is that easy, and she was defending who she thought was a wolf...but even then there's no guarantee he is one. And right now, I don't have a feel for him.

Unfortunately I'm at school right now so I can only do a quick skim. I'll be back later, an hour before the deadline, to say more. Wish I could be back earlier, but...well, one more year of high school. :rolleyes: *dashes off to Latin class*

A meta-analysis.

We have two known innocents. In addition, we have one known Tar-Miriel (surely you people are not serious about having doubts? A fake-seer lying about having seen Tar-Miriel is illogical).

I have put together their views concerning every villager, except for themselves, of course. (In the case of Roa, as she is working to undermine the village, remember to invert everything she says). I will then compare what these three people think about each villager. Let's see what happens:

Brinniel
Roa thinks Brinniel is "odd." I think she's largely undecided here.


Durelin
Roa seems to find her slightly suspicious, which means she probably thinks durelin is innocent.

Gil-Galad
Roa has no strong feelings, is slightly suspicious.

Glirdan
Nogrod is ever so slightly suspicious, but his feelings aren't strong.

the guy who be short
Roa seems to find me suspicious, though does not go as far as thinking I'm a Faithful. She probably thinks I'm innocent.
Nogrod worries that he agrees with everything I say. I think this means he's largely undecided on me.

Hookbill the Goomba
Roa seems to find him suspicious, but not so much as to call him a wolf. She probably think's he's an innocent.

Kath
Roa has no strong feelings, slightly suspicious.
Nogrod doesn't seem to have any strong feelings.

Kitanna
Roa suspects her to be Faithful, which probably means she think's Kitanna is innocent.

Lalaith
Roa suspects her, though not so far as to call her a wolf. She therefore probably finds Lalaith innocent.

Legate of Amon Lanc
Roa "likes" and "agrees" with everything he says. She says somebody else should analyze him because she feels too partial. This points to her thinking he is a Faithful.

Mänwe
Roa calls him suspicious, meaning she probably thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod thinks he is not a Faithful.
Rikae thinks he is suspicious.

Mithalwen
Roa has no strong feelings, she's slightly suspicious.

Rune Son of Bjarne
Roa seems to find him suspicious, which probably means she thinks he's innocent.

The Saucepan Man
Roa attacks him fiercely, meaning she thinks he's innocent.
Nogrod attacks him fiercely, he thinks SpM is a faithful.

Thinlómien
Rikae thinks she has a "faithful-ish vibe."
Roa thinks she seems quite innocent, meaning she probably thinks Thinlomien is Faithful.



Well. Some more views from Nogrod and Rikae would certainly help matters. The following names are only from people whom at least 2 of our known 3 characters have commented on. As it stands, these people look worst:
Lommy

These people look neutral:
TGWBS
Kath
Manwe
SpM

Dear Annatar! Everybody else comes under "not enough data." Nogrod and Rikae, please share your opinions on people. This type of meta-analysis can be very helpful, I feel.

No. I've no intention of forgetting Spm and indeed his last post awoke pretty similar reactions in me as it seems to have aroused in you. But remember also my dear Roa, the way a good Cobbler works is by being reasonable as often as she can and I have no doubt that most that you did at least on Day1 was quite straightforward and open. What else could you have done not knowing the identities of the Faithfuls?

Trying to say then: I think it much more probable that you're a Cobbler than Rikae as so many things seem to fit. As I said, I admit it's not fool-proof and there is a chance it being the more improbable way.

But I'll try to think of other things for a while just to refresh my mind.

I'm coming and going for it... :) I just need a short break.

But you should remember that with Roa you can't just turn the things around that easily. I for one believe she actually thought Spm to be a faithful for instance. Remember what I said about the cobbler role in my last post before this.

Just checking in ..seems I have a lot ot catch up on...

I find the possibility that Rikae is lying and Roa telling the truth remote almost to the point of impossibility.

Yes, how very convenient for me to have to acknowledge that, yet again, I have managed to vote for the Seer (and so contributed to her having to reveal herself). :rolleyes: And I am not going to answer accusations from one whom I firmly believe to be the Cobbler.

I am running out of time and, in view of the limited time that I have had available toDay, I am not prepared to cast my vote for somone who may well be innocent when I can cast it for someone that I am convinced is the Cobbler.

So, without further ado …

++ROA_AOIFE

This is so annoying, I have only just got home, and must go out again quite shortly. I only have time to skim-read the thread. But there is one basic fact we have to go on.
The wolves killed no-one last night.
The most likely scenario:
Rikae is, as she says, the seer, the ranger protected her and the wolves, gambling on a bluff by the ranger, tried and failed to kill her.
In this scenario, Roa must the Cobbler.

Other possible scenarios.
Rikae is a wolf. In this case the wolves must have decided not to kill anyone, in order to confuse the village. Is that even allowed under the rules? Very unlikely indeed.

Rikae is the cobbler. This is slightly more likely. The ranger would have protected her, thinking her the seer, and the wolves, also thinking her the seer, try to kill her. But why would Cobbler-Rikae say Roa was the Cobbler? Cobbler-Rikae does not know, any more than the rest of us, who is a wolf. So, if we then turn on Roa and kill her, and Roa turns out to be a wolf, the Rikae-Cobbler will have failed in her duty.

No, I find these scenarios too unlikely to be plausible. So, rather than risk killing an innocent, I will vote:
++ROA

TGWBS .. I think it is over simplistic to say that if Roa (assuming she is Tar Miriel) casts suspicion on someone it means she thinks they are innocent. I am not a hundred percent on Rikae (After last time, couldn't be :rolleyes: ), but whatever Roa is she is subtle and has a strategic mind - bet she plays chess. My query about her statement was made with the awareness that there might be aspects of the matter that had bypassed me completely.

I don't know why you are so hung up on my first post.... sometimes the only useful thing an innocent can do is to toss balls in the air and see who reacts. In such a spirit I maintained my vote for Lalaith - I didn't deliberately fritter time - I had no watch and was misled by the time differences (the Downs and Computer were bith wrong :( ). I thought Garin was being himself and Manwe seemed new rather than guilty so ..... One of those things you can't completely win on - I was criticised for an "anyone to save Boro" vote last time ....

If you kill Roa today, you're throwing away every advantage I've managed to give you. If the faithfuls did decide to bluff by leaving me alive until tomorrow, you could lynch me then and prove my identity, and you would have another dream. Of course, the faithfuls know that and won't leave me alive - which means tomorrow you will have two known "non-faithfuls" - Nogrod and Roa.
Roa counts as an innocent, and since she's been revealed, she can do no harm. My dreams will be verified soon enough.
Kill Roa and you lose one "known nonfaithful" and reduce your numbers by one. Kill someone else and you stand a chance of getting a faithful - or at least, you still have two you can remove from the list of possible faithfuls tomorrow, when I'm dead.
Feel free to disregard my advice, but I'm telling you, you're throwing away your advantage.
I'll read over the thread one more time and post my thoughts on everyone in a few minutes...

Okay, I'm back and much calmer now. I do find it alarming that no is even really considering that Rikae may be lying. (I'm not surprised at SPM.) Come one, people, are you just going to blindly believe without even the slightest doubt? The worst thing a village can do in werewolf is to ignore a possibilty that someone is lying.

The bolded part is what I truly believe happened, in which case the Faithful and Rikae couldn't be in a stringer position. Rikae has shown herself to be as bold as I am. Here's a possibilty that you seem to be ignoring: Tar-Rikae believes me innocent, and someone I've analyzed to be a Faithful. (I personally think it's SPM, who naturally voted for me ) She doesn't want anyone taking me seriously, so she accuses me of being the cobbler, to cripple a powerful innocent and detract the case.

And look at what's happening: SPM has jumped on it and imediately voted for me with such an air of finality that it seems anyone who might believe me will be instantly suspected for doing so. TGWBS is just going along and saying all my points must mean the opposite of what I really say, which plays perfectly into this plan. And while some are pointing out the folly in this, no one is doing anything about it.

And consider this: If I was really the cobbler, wouldn't I have tried to disprove the "seer" the moment she revealed? Or perhaps even claimed to be the ranger and say that I didn't really protect her? You might say that the real ranger would disprove it, or even the hunter, but that in itself would be doing a cobbler's job in forcing gifted to reveal. You say I'm acting like a cobbler, but you also admit that I'm more sly than people seem to think. Am I really acting any different than I normally do? If I were the cobbler, I'd have a much better plan than "mass confusion" going.

EDIT: crossed with Rikae

Why am I not surprised, Rikae? Of course you don't want me lynched, it will prove you're lying.


I'm half tempted to vote myself just to thwart you.

People, what Rikae says is why I wrote my second 'plus' for killing Roa, if we kill Roa and she is innocent we know that Rikae is lying without doubt. Rikae telling us Roa is the Cobbler is a perfect chance to sort the mess out of, is she (Roa) a Cobbler, and is she (Rikae) the Seer.

I do not think we would be losing an advantage, Rikae has given us the greatest adavantage of all, and that is too accuse someone.

Popping in again real quickly. Yay for classrooms with computers...

Rikae - You have good points about Roa being another know non-Faithful (if you're telling the truth...I know very well that there are no certainties in this game, but I also know that you have to go with what's most likely or you're stuck), I disagree that she can do no harm. She can still vote, and particularly once our numbers start decreasing more as they undoubtedly will with all four wolves left, one vote can make a big difference. Everyone even has one retractable, so anything can happen.


You had no way to effectively disprove her until she shared what she knew. Wisely she waited to do so, and you did, too. The Cobbler's point isn't to commit suicide. You weren't going to stick your neck out that far.

Edit: Cross-posted with Manwe.

Mith - That first post seemed very weird to me (and to several others). However, I can accept that anybody can make mistakes. Also, you say the sentence was rhetorical (which I didn't perceive). Most of the rest of what you say seems innocent to me, so I don't believe you're a Faithful. However, on day one you have to suspect whoever you can based on whatever evidence you have. There's sufficient additional information today for me, at least (and I believe I have been your most dedicated attacker) to turn my attention elsewhere.

Nogrod and Rikae - thanks for the (up-and-coming) info on your thoughts on everyone. I'll admit I don't know Roa very well. If people think she's that tricksy, I'll remove her from the meta-analysis and we can just see what Nogrod and Rikae think. I suppose interpretation of Roa's words can go either way - she could be speaking her mind or lying to lead us astray. Perhaps it's better to look at people she's simply avoided mentioning strong feelings about altogether: Glirdan, Brinniel, Gil-Galad, Kath and Mithalwen.

I'm having a look at Lommy next.

Manwe, is right. If you kill me, you'll know she's lying. If you let me live, you won't know if she's alive tomorrow because she's evil, or because the faithful are bluffing. Of course, if you let me live, the faithful may kill her because they still believe she's telling the truth (possible, but not likely, in my opinion) and you'll see on the list of the dead that she is Tar-Miriel. Because you're all right in one sense- this is too bold for a wolf, especially so early in the game.

Durelin -Seems to be engaging with all the issues that are brought up and sincerely trying to be helpful. Feels innocent.
Glirdan – Entirely confusing and little content. Can't get any impression of him at all – might be a good idea to eliminate him as an “unknown quantity” soon.

Gil-Galad – Basically, same assessment as Glirdan.
Kath – Advised me not to start conversations as a wolf in the last game – something she's been doing now. She seems not to be trying quite as hard, or playing as carefully, as she does when a wolf – but it's subtle enough I doubt it's a deliberate trick.
Kitanna – Safe – claims speechlessness, not really with much apparent reason – points out Glirdan's Glirdanishness. Seems very to be flying under the radar.
Lalaith – First post seems relaxed, in an innocentish way, and pointing out the foolishness of drawing attention to gifteds also strikes me as sincere.
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe – Attention drawing in a way that, in retrospect, seems like the sort of innocent that looks suspcious on a day one. However, the comment about worthless villagers disturbs me...but he kind of reminds me of an innocent Morm.
Mithalwen – Posting first tends to look innocent – as I'm sure “Faithfulwen” would be aware.

Initially pointing out that gifteds can look suspicious could easily be an attempt to make suspicious looking faithfuls seem like possible gifteds, plus, she mentions the cobbler prominently on a separate line – a technique I've used myself, as a wolf, to get the cobbler's attention.
Rune Son of Bjarne – Always seems the same to me, guilty or innocent. Isn't particularly standing out.
The Saucepan Man – Starts off telling everyone to speak, stating simple, safe, obvious things. Seems keen to lynch Roa, which is NOT in the village's interests, as I said.






Suspicious:

Mithalwen

TSM

Kitanna




Moderate:

Glirdan

Manwe

Rune

Gil







Not suspicious:

Kath

Lalaith

Duralin




I have to go - I'll look at the rest when I get back.

thinking aloud
 

Actually I am considering ...... and also because ..well there is something from Day 1 that is bothering me and Ican't just think of what and why but I feel that the Nogrod, Roa, SpM interraction is important.

Now of the 3 I thought Nogrod seemed quite unsuspicious. Now if Rikae is bluffing she may have thought he was a good choice to name as an innocent since although if she were wolf she would know the innocents a plausible choice would be best. Whatever Nogrod's actual status he has nothing to gain by denying it at this point.

SpM usually winds me up (I don't know if it is deliberate or just the automatic consequence of him being a Gemini lawyer like my elder sibling :rolleyes: ), so I don't know if I am just being oversensitive about his quibbling.

However if Rikae is lying, then wouldn't it have been more sensible to claim to be the hunter.... don't have to produce dreams and have a good reason for being left alone at night....

On the other hand if she IS the seer I don't see why, having made a "hit", and knowing she could not be protected again she didn't immediately reveal her dream.

Need to read back and time is getting short - and I don't think I am getting anywhere.

The cobbler's point is to create confusion and keep wolves from getting lynched, even if it means getting themselves lynched in place of a wolf. There were few enough people about that I could have called her a liar, bumped her into the lead with my vote, and created enough confusion that everyone else would have been paralyzed to do anything. With out any contention at all, everyone was confused and unsure of what to do. Imagine if I had contested her claim with one of my own!

The next day, a lynched seer with no reveals, and one known cobbler, who most people would have voted for and lynched, and that's two days you don't catch a wolf. That would be a great move for a cobbler. I should know, I've been thinking of that possibility since my first game with Nogrod. And you obviously haven't played with me very much, because I would definitely put my neck out like that. I have before, and I wouldn't hesitate to do it again.

Re: Lynching Roa, I'm with Rikae on this. Killing the cobbler means not killing a potential wolf. Perhaps if our numbers were smaller, killing her would be a priority.

However, we are 18, of whom 2 are known innocents and one is Tar-Miriel. Our numbers can more than absorb Roa's one vote.

I think it would be benficial to go for a different villager. Nobody is taking Roa seriously because her argument makes no sense. When Rikae dies tonight, Roa will be proven to be the cobbler. Perhaps it will be interesting to see how she reacts. She will be in a very difficult position. She will be unable to sow confusion - her main role. She will be unable to serve her Faithful masters effectively because she won't be able to encourage people to vote for whoever she thinks is innocent - we wont trust her. And she wont be able to follow the village and vote for somebody who she thinks is Faithful, because that will kill one of her precious masters.

Rikae, I would like to point out I was not the one that made the 'worthless villager' post.

~~~

tgwbs, I see your reasoning here, but do you not think to kill Roa and see what she really is would prove without a doubt whether Rikae was the seer...don't forget by your own reasoning, we will lose the Seer this evening, and so gain no more benefit from her.

Killing Roa and finding out what she is would prove without doubt whether Rikae is the Seer or not. It's a win win situation in a way, for if Rikae is not a Seer than we can kill her, with a certain knowledge she is either the actual Cobbler or Faithful thats if she does not die tonight. If she dies tonight then we have lost her, a possible Seer. But we knew we had lost her when she revealed herself yesterday.

Though there is the chance of one more dream...which if she isn't the Seer proven by whether Rao is the Seer would no doubt just be another lie. I'm starting to think that Roashould be the one to die....

Edited with tgwbs

LOL I find quite the reverse - in my first games the first posters turned out to be wolves which was the reason I nearly just went home to bed on Sunday night. However because I believe you should participate as much as you can and I knew I would be limited, I started things off. If I were a wolf I would have kept quiet and not drawn attention to myself . However as an ordo, I believe the more discussion the better. I generated discussion far more than by some "in char RPG"psot customary for early posts that may be amusing but are seldom enlightening......

And I am not a wolf so please do not play around with my name. I really find it annoying when people do that....

Back again and the game is just getting better! :cool:

Good thing Rikae that you remembered that a Cobbler is counted as an innocent in the final counts! I had totally forgotten it. But Durelin also has a point. Especially in a game in a village that might still have some less informed villagers (those who can't bother to read what other people say) in their ranks an informed cobbler could be devastating. tgwbs is right that we can absorb one Cobbler now, but if the going gets tougher - fex. if we don't get some Faithfuls soon - then we'd had much harder situation to get rid of her...

So I must say I'm turning more and more to lynching Roa despite her brave effort. I mean there are some rewards to be gained with it.

And even without any extra-rewards the setting get clearer / lots of information starts to make sense. If Rikae is right which I see more likely then we've gotten rid of a potentially dangerous cobbler from the endgame and not lynched an innocent. If Rikae bluffs and Roa was an innocent, we know she'll be our Cobbler (or possibly although not probably our Faithful) and we can lynch her when we see it fit (if she bluffs I suggest we get the Pan man first).

Also we'll be having a host of other information from toDay to chew toMorrow too.

I'll try to make a summary now but will follow the discussion...

EDIT: X'd with Mänwe & Mith

Just to make you aware that it seems Hookbill will also be leaving us. Unless he happens to be a wolf then we have "absorbed" 3 innocents in one day. You can't rely on a ranger save ... lynching the cobler for peace of mind might be an expensive luxury.

Just thought of reminding us with this as I had kept this in my Word...

Gil - > Spm
Lommy - > tgwbs
Brinniel - > Legate
Spm - > Roa
Lalaith - > Roa (Spm1, tgwbs1, Legate1, Roa2)

I still think it would be best to leave Roa be today.
Even though I got a way better feel about Legate today he is the only one with a vote that I find suspiciouse and now Lommy will ask why I don't build a strong case around one of my other suspects then. . .the answer is: Because I don't have a strong case. But if I was not to vote Legate, I would probably go for Brinniel.

++Legate