The Saucepan Man:
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Fordim: Quote:
But if wolf vs. hunter is a wolf win (as I think it ought to be) then it's a 3 in 4 chance of winning for the wolf and 1 in 4 for the villagers, assuming the wolf attacked someone. But I think you've incorrectly tallied the probabilities for the other scenario (wolf does not attack anyone): Quote:
1. 1/3 chance that the hunter gets lynched, in which case: a. 1/2 chance he hunts the innocent that day (wolf wins) b. 1/2 chance he hunts the wolf (villagers win) 2. 1/3 chance the innocent gets lynched (wolf wins or draw depending on wolf vs. hunter rule) 3. 1/3 chance that the wolf gets lynched (villagers win) So if hunter vs. wolf is a draw then we have a 1/4 chance of a wolf win if the wolf attacks that night and a 1/6 chance if he does not. If hunter vs. wolf is a wolf win then we have a 3/4 chance of a wolf victory if the wolf attacks that night and a 1/2 chance if he does not. Either way, it's better for the wolf to attack. |
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In any case, if the whole village dies, it's not even a draw. It's a multi-loss. Quote:
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I defer to your far greater abilities of mathmatical assessment, Aiwendil. :D Quote:
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The same thing happened also in WWXIII which I modded. There was an innocent (Ang) and Hunter (Lalaith) against two wolves (tar-ancalime & Eonwe, who was originally the Cursed), and because the wolves would have won anyway after the Hunter's kill, I thought it would be nicer to let both wolves stay alive. Quote:
Anyway, I don't like twisting the rules much. Of course players want to adjust the rules so that it benefits their side, but isn't it part of the fun and excitement of having a certain role that it may have a drastic influence on the outcome of a game? |
I would just like to say - oy! I did tell Menel I wouldn't be around one Day and I believe I mentioned it both in here and on the main thread.
I do apologise though for my absence yesterDay which was unavoidable. I should have been back in plenty of time to save myself but the plane was delayed and the car broke down etc. The dead should tell no tales I know but I thought I should explain myself. |
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Anyway I agree that the Wolves win in the scenario. Think of it this way, the wolves goal is to kill the village. If they are all dead (villagers) wolves win whether or not they are alive too is irrelevant, though I would leave the wolves alive to avoid the ambiguity. |
Alright, who is the next on the list for modding? I believe Nilp wanted to give it a go, but I'd like to pencil my name down after his.... I say pencil because there might be someone else waiting and I wouldn't want to cut in line :p
I have quite a few ideas for my game (Whenever it happens) but I don't mind waiting.... nor playing another game. |
I'm up for the next Mod, Nilp was kind enough to let me take this round since it works best with my school schedule. He gets the game after me then and after that it should be free.
For my game I'm aiming for a village of fifteen (15) to twenty (20) people, so feel free to start signing up now. There are just a couple of quick points about my game. >>I ask that you DO NOT CHOOSE AN OCCUPATION (yet). I may or may not limit which occupations are available (for the purposes of my narations) but I haven't decided yet. Within 24 hours I'll let you know. >>I'm considering adding the role of "False Seer" (also called "the Fool"). Basically this role functions such that both the Seer and the False Seer would get a PM from me saying "You are a Seer yadda yadda yadda..." Only I would know which was the true seer and so they both would believe they were getting the correct information. The False Seer's dreaming works such that if the False Seer dreams of the true Seer they're told they've found the False Seer, if they dream of anyone else I pull a role out of a hat containing all the remaining roles (minus the seer). So if it's Night Three and there's 3wolves, 1ranger, 1hunter, 9villagers, (and the subtracted seer) I'd be pulling one of those randomly to tell the False Seer. I'm looking for input regarding the False Seer, so feel free to ask questions or give your opinions. Like with the occupations I'll let you know what I decide within 24 hours. Day/Night Starting Times will probably be around 4:30pm EST, though that's flexible within half an hour either way. I say for sure when the game will start until I have a better feel (well, any feel) for how recruitment's going. |
I must be mad ...
... or a stress junkie.
Sign me up! :D |
I'm in as well!!
Although I'm looking forward to Nilp's game (no offense meant for you Shelob) I have the perfect occupation if Nilp will allow... I'll be... the town's Nilp! =D But that will have to wait, as will any decisions on my job for this game, until tomorrow I guess |
As for the False Seer, I like the idea, but doesn't it rather sway things against the villagers? The Seer is the villagers' greatest asset and, if they can't rely on the information that they get from him or her, it will be a serious obstacle to them.
So I think that it would need to be balanced out with something in favour of the villagers. 4.30pm EST is 9.30pm GMT, right? I would prefer an hour later, but I can live with it. |
I figured that, and after my last post it dawned on me I should probably clarify a few points about the false seer.
>>If the False Seer is Used there will be NO COBBLER OR CURSED. I don't want to give the wolves too much of an advantage. (If the False Seer is not used I'll be using at least one of those roles, depends on the numbers) >>The Hunter and Ranger will be allowed to talk during the day, which should help balance it a little. Though this will hold true regardless of whether or not the False Seer is used. >>When one of the seers dies I will tell the village which one it was. So the notation would read something like: SHELOB--False Seer--pushed into a well by wolves on NIGHT 3 Which should clarify something...if nothing else it'll solve the mystery for the remaining seer. and it may even end up depending entirely on how the wolf:villager:gifted proportions work out, if it's tilted enough in favour of the wolves I'd like to try a game with the False Seer, even just to see how it works out in practice. [EDIT: I said earlier I'd let you know about the Flase Seer within 24 hours, in reality I'll probably decide shortly before the game begins. That way more people can have input on it.] Yes, 4.30pmEST=9.30pmGMT. I was making a quick guess on times, thinking further on it I figure I may push it back at least half an hour, but it should settle somewhere in the 4.30/5.30pmEST (9.30/10.30pmGMT) range... |
I think I would like to add my name to the roster.
As for the false seer that might be good because since SpM and I are inevitably dreamt of on the first 3 nights perhaps they will receive false information. I can only imagine if the two of us were wolves...the seer would identify two within 2 to 3 nights :rolleyes: . Though I'm not a huge fan of the role because I'm thinking from the perspective of playing the seer. You wouldn't never be certain that you were correct and the village wouldn't really know the truth until after their death. However, it may be a lot of fun. So I'm not against it but I would like others to say their piece too. Edit: I also would like to reserve a slot for Fordim in case we can talk him into playing :D |
I'm in for the next one as well.
The false seer is a very interesting idea, though I also worry that it might bias things against the villagers. One thing that could be done to soften the effect would be to have the false seer simply have a chance of receiving the wrong information - e.g. 50% of the time the false seer is told the truth, 50% of the time a lie. But that might push things too far the other way and give an advantage to the villagers. Another possibility is that the false seer could always be told that the person he/she dreamt of is innocent. This would prevent a disastrous lynching of an innocent whom the false seer accused of being a wolf. It would also mean that once the real seer dreams of someone other than an innocent, he (but not the false seer) will know the truth about his role. I don't know that either of those suggestions would work well in practice; I'm just throwing out some ideas. |
It's official, I'm obsessed...
...or just insane. Or maybe both? Who knows? Anyway, definetly count me in.
This False Seer idea of yours sounds interesting and what better way to try out new ideas then in an actual game that you get to mod, right? I say yes to the False Seer. As for the times, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) that we are in the same time zone yet 4:30 is not the best of times for me as I have school for six hours and then band three days a week for an hour and a half which means it would be ending just as the Day/Night begins. Do you think you could push it back? |
Scorecard
The Three have won 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, and 14 for a total of ten wins.
The Ordos have won 4, 6, 8, 12, 15, and 17 for a total of six. The Black Beornings have won squat for a total of naught. A Tie occurred in 16 making one. While the Ordos still have not won two in a row, they now have a chance of it. (Yes, I'm obsessed with the ordos being able to win two in a row.) |
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Farael:
You sure you're up to the chance of being lynched on DAY 1--happened to me once; it was fun but kinda depressing. :D :(
Ummm . . . I'll probably skip this one, unless some lovely person decides to grace this game with her presence. :) |
I have a sort of doom scenario that is bound to happen when we let Nilp mod a game. Maybe we should reconsider. :p
I'm not playing for a while, since my grades have been rapidly going downhill after I joined Formendacil's game. I find that very disturbing. Have fun you all! :) |
Sign me up!
I have way too many friends on this site... I can't offend them by not playing. I'm also addicted... No occupations? How droll... |
*slaps Formendacil*
Are you a masochist or what?! Musst...ressisst...preciouss... |
Well, the players list looks great thus far, but I don't know if I should...
Sign me up, please. :rolleyes: About the false Seer: it will definitely make things more complicated, but it'd be fun to try out, how that role really works. |
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Well, well, speaking of the . . . daga . . . Sign me up, please. :rolleyes: *takes keyboard back after a long bloody fight* Sign me up, please. :rolleyes: |
Please let me play in this one, O my wonderful wolf Shelob. :)
I've been having severe withdrawal symptons lately and I need a fix, posthaste! Lhuna, this time! I'm watching you... ;) |
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I need someone other than dancing spawn to habitually suspect ... ;) |
*Withdraws hand from keyboard*
*Tentatively reaches forward again* I really wish I could play in this one. It looks great. Spm, Eomer, morm, Lhuny to name but a few... Alas, I have both coursework and mock exams to take care of. And it would be discourteous to hog a space four games in a row, for I will certainly not miss a Nilp-modding. So I'm sitting this one out, unfortunately. I hope I have time to keep track of going ons. The False Seer looks interesting, by which I mean, it will confuse the daga out of everybody. |
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I'd need to know what day we'd be starting so I could see how the alternation would work out (it makes a bit of a difference). |
I know Mods dislike being bugged like this...
...but can we please outlaw double-lynchings for this game? I just hate them so much! :D |
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But I am very keen that we retain non-retractable votes. |
Count me in. .... that gives SPM one more character to habitually suspect. :rolleyes:
And I'd like to moderate a game soon after that .... .....I want to try 'dueling wizards'. More about that later, but if you're curious, check out the thread entitled "Werewolf Scenarios You Want to See" (or something like that). I'd hyperlink but this workplace computer doesn't allow it. Grr. |
And me please! The False Seer role looks interesting and if the Hunter and Ranger are allowed to communicate throughout the Day it should balance out.
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Garin raises his furry hand.
Consider me for the game as well. Although, I'm not sure about the False Seer. It almost seems cruel to the fool. I must protect my people. EDIT: My people = fools |
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Perhaps you could bring back the good old Shirriffs? Note the spelling...
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Alright, I've been looking at it and I figure there's probably three possible ways the gifted roles are going to end up working.
The First: 3 Wolves 1 Seer 1 Ranger 1 Hunter > where the Ranger and Hunter are allowed to communicate during the day. The Second: 3 Wolves 1 Seer 1 False Seer 1 Ranger 1 Hunter > where the Ranger and Hunter are allowed to communicate during the day The Third: 3 Wolves 1 Seer 1 False Seer 1 Ranger 1 Hunter 2 Sherriffs Feel free to make other suggestions, those just seem like the most likely. Now, as for occupations, I'm not going to limit them but if you could take one from the following list I would appreciate it as it would make writing my narrations somewhat easier. (And yes, I did steal some of this from the list of Midieval Occupations LMP supplied ages ago. It made life easier.) Prince/princess baker inventor noble gentleperson salesperson hermit eccentric bum soldier knight fraudster fishmonger governess manager entertainer jester musician theif priest farmer magistrate flower salesperson chef messanger beekeeper fool Ironmonger Mason Shepherd Coppersmith Money lender Cheese seller Tanner Butcher Tailor Silversmith Carpenter Leatherworker Glover Hatter crazy lady who lives with pet rocks (instead of cats) alchemist stable hand hunch back resident amphibean leper ex-leper foreign dignitary flaming flamingo constitutional peasant banker Thanks. |
I call Alchemist!!!! It'll be fun to add some 1,2,3,4-thiatriazoles and cyclooctanes to the conversation :D
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Flaming flamingo? What on Middle-earth...
I call priest. And I think you may guess who my holy Lord will be. ;) I am not overly keen on the False Seer idea but I'm prepared to try anything once (well, maybe not anything :rolleyes: :p ). So I say try it out Shelob! I am not at all keen on the Ranger and Hunter knowing each other. I'd prefer to keep them separate and have Shirriffs. BUT the only way to have so many gifteds is in a game with over 15 players. We don't want all the gifteds coming out and narrowing the wolf-suspect list by half immediately. And if we have Shirriffs as well as all these gifteds I think double-lynchings must be outlawed. Because then you have a case where 6 people can come out right at the start and the village will simply double-lynch their way to victory. The wolves won't have much of a chance, and the game wouldn't reach a chilling nerve-racking climax. |
I like the False Seer myself...nice and Biblical, somehow...
I'd like to enter this one though I may have to back out, in which case I'll squeal. I'll take the banker... |
I'm really missing werewolf. Life has been very, very busy lately.
But then again, there's this role: Quote:
Okay, I'd like to sign up, though I may have to back out, in which unfortunate case I'll be quite unhappy. |
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