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Nog -
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1) Look closely at my voting post, especially the EDIT. I cross-posted with Lalaith and McCaber's reveal. If I'd realized in time that Lalaith had already voted for Shasta, I would have reconsidered instead of creating a possible three-way tie. 2) I did suspect Fea, but found it hard to distinguish between suspicious behaviour and her regular style (you might say it's in character for her to behave suspiciously, regardless of her role). Same, mutatis mutandis, for the late Boro. Also, I wasn't entirely sure of Inzil - maybe the two of them were watching him for a sound reason? So I decided to give them more time and concentrate on the other two suspects. Between McCaber and Shasta, I couldn't really make up my mind and decided to vote for the one who hadn't been voted yet. Hard to understand, maybe, but that's the way I make decisions at times - go against the current. I realized too late Lalaith had got ahead of me. 3) My lack of response to McCaber's reveal. Well, honestly, I was gobsmacked. Struck dumb by surprise. Believe it or not. |
Excuse me? "Haven't made an effort"? I believe I laid out a pretty clear suspicion of Inzil yesterday (which I plan to expound on - why continue to dispute what I said when it's easy enough for anyone to go back and check?)
Maybe you should look at our dear departed hostess's secondary aim. |
Annoyed (and still rubbing sleep out of his eyes), Shasta glares at Nogrod for a moment before turning on his heel and stalking into the kitchen for a pick-me-up of the caffeinated variety.
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"Now hark your own words and what were they a response into": Quote:
"I think we speak a different language my friend but I just don't buy what you say. And before you claim you have said more than that let me recite all you have sais thus far (that one not included) before you started bringing this latest issue of going after those who don't trust you: Quote:
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"An effort? A contribution to save our lives? A helping hand to us? Well, that's a lot of help, thank you sir!" Quote:
With that Nogrod spat on the floor and elbowed Shasta from the fridge finally picking the Pinot Noir out from there. "Sorry mate", he murmured and went to search for the corkscrew. "And really Shasta, I'm not liking this row at all. You're digging our mutual grave here if you're an innocent. Just concentrate, be serious, try to think and act - and be creative as well. But do contribute more than you have done, please. Try at least. That one speech about Inzil is not worth the cork I have just pulled out from this bottle. Give us something real to chew!" Nogrood looked at Shasta for a moment - and the cup he had in hand. "Really mate, you should drink the real stuff one day... freshly grounded dark capuccino, Café Parisien, something real..." |
PS to my last: Add that Rikae, Nerwen and (I just noticed) Shasta himself hadn't voted yet, so the outcome was still pretty much uncertain.
Shasta, I've no problem with you acting...er... let's say, according to the circumstances of our situation;) - we all did the same to some degree - , but I at least was left with the impression that you did little else. True, you poked at Inzil for twisting your words - and I've already said I think you justified in this - , but that is not quite what I would call voicing a pretty clear suspicion. If you're going to expound, I'm all ears. I'd also very much like to know why you didn't vote. And you're cordially invited to look at me as hard as you like:). For now, excuse me, everybody, I haven't had breakfast yet; and I'm tired of sleeping on a couch, so I'd better spend some hours getting some order into my room and clearing enough space to assemble the bed. See you all in the evening! |
"'nuff said... bring that kettle on would you?" Nogrod said to Shasta now in a more comforting way and went to the mortar picking the package of dark coffee beans with him.
"You'd like a good Java? I'll grind that in a minute." |
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x/d with many |
While grinding the coffee beans Nogrod heard what Pitchwife and Inziladun were saying. He smiled and turned towards them.
"Good! Keep on at it! Answer the questions and suspicions I made concerning you! That's the way we can progress..." Suddenly he straightened himself and yelled so loud everyone could hear it. "Now everyone do it! Answer my suspicions - or what could be even better, make your own suspicions and make others to answer them! The more suspicions, the more answers to them, the better we're off. Only those cursed ones would love silence and randomness. That's pure mathematics. So let's start some real discussion now! Only that way we can assess if we can think someone is more reliable than not." |
Well, I still don't trust Pitchwife. His words seem... too calculated. And why is he so quick to defend Eonwe (who I also don't trust) against Lalaith?
I also have to disagree with our esteemed, if macabre, seer: Nogrod is most certainly still a possible suspect as far as I'm concerned (in fact, he is decidedly suspicious). I've known him for quite a while on the 'downs, and he certainly has the sense it takes to jump in and help lynch a doomed packmate, making himself look innocent. He's just the type to do exactly that, even, and lately - ah, I'll probably have to mull over his words to figure out exactly why, but he doesn't look honest. |
Well, it's good to see Rikae around. More, please.
I'd also like to hear more from autume98, Lalaith, and definitely Nerwen. And Shasta, I'm eagerly awaiting your case against me. But not so much that I can hang around here indefinitely. Indeed, the time has come for me to retire to my quarters for a bit for some relaxation and slumber. As some reputedly great man or other once said, 'I shall return'. |
Nerwen spoke up from the corner where she had been sitting quietly, watching the others.
"Well, what did I say? She was trying to dispose of the evidence! '...Now, I notice that Nessa Telrunya was rather eager to point out that the people who voted Fea were unlikely to be wolves. I'm not so sure. Nessa and Fea's voting each other is something that could have been staged, I think. After all, Nessa's vote was only the first cast on Fea, and it seems to me that the wolves might vote each other, to throw us off the track. 'Then McCaber– who claims to be the Seer– cast the second vote on Fea. I don't see any reason to doubt him. But then we have Nogrod sealing Fea's fate by giving her the third vote... and I don't think we can say whether that's innocent or not– given that the Seer had just denounced her, I think it's possible that a Nogwolf would decide to throw her under the bus. 'I don't, mind you, see any particular reason to suspect Nogrod. He doesn't strike me as behaving in a guilty manner or anything. I'm just saying, it could be a mistake to treat him and Nessa as confirmed innocents– particularlyNessa. Her relations with Fea yesterday looked a little, I don't know, artificial." |
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I'd like to address me being quiet. I'm just a quiet person by nature. I tend to take things in. However I see that I'm going to have to speak up more and let my thoughts be known. I appreciate what you have to say Nogrod. Your thoughts help me out quite a bit. I also had some doubts about Inzil for the reasons you listed Nogrod, however I'm not sure where I stand with him now. I really haven't heard enough from some to know enough about them. I'm looking forward to read what Shasta has to say about Inzil, Nogrod, Lalaith, and Pitchwife. I'm not sure where I stand with Nessa. Was the vote a knee-jerk reaction? |
Well, this has been an interesting morning so far, but before I talk about my impressions of my fellow houseguests, I will share my day's work with you all, for I have done is to look more closely at our known wolf, Fea. Of course, we all know from the Downs that this is a lady of quicksilver wit and high intelligence, and it is not likely that she would leave clumsy clues. But still...
The interaction with Boro, and McCaber's intervention - well that was fascinating in retrospect. I saw something was going on, but I was looking at it from the wrong angle, and suspected McCaber. Classic murder mystery stuff..but of little practical use to us now, as we know the status of all concerned in that triangle. The other interesting interaction was with Nessa. She votes for her, having already said that she will vote for either Nessa and Nerwen. Then, when Nessa immediately retaliates with a vote, she responds by telling the rest of us that Nessa is clearly not a wolf. Now, at this point, of course, Fea-wolf does not know she has been scried. Why does she make this defence of Nessa? My first thought was that such a comment was primarily intended to make her (Fea) look good...proclaiming someone else's innocence like that is not a wolfish thing to do. Could Fea also be defending a fellow-wolf? It is certainly a high-risk strategy for two wolves to vote for each other like this on the first day...but not inconceivable, particularly when followed up by Fea's comment, which could have been expert damage limitation. Well, that's my Fea analysis. More soon. |
Well, I think we'd benefit from recalling yesterday's votes. I'm surprised no one has done so yet.
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"Well, up to now, I don't have clear views on everybody, but can assess based on what's happened.
Inziladun I'm not sure about. He seemed to be there where Fea needed it when he tied her vote for McCaber But it doesn't really seem to me that he's dodging everyone, so I don't know. Shasta I have my suspicions about, but I don't think it's anything that would require me to vote for him just yet. Pitchwife I have a feeling about. Sure he clearly states his thoughts about everyone, but something just doesn't sit right. He voted for Shasta, who didn't have anything clear against him, because he said he didn't like bandwagoning. That's hardly a reason. McCaber we've already dissected. Now, we can assume he's the seer. If he lives for long, he probably isn't, since the wolves would go for him. I have to watch him. Nogrod seems fairly stout for the moment. He gives you his views flat out, but no one is truly safe from all suspicion, so I can't count him out just yet. autume98, frankly, I can't see as a wolf. She isn't trying to outmanuever anyone enough for that, and she reasoned her vote for Eonwe as a gut feeling. Lalaith hasn't given much to go on. She just seems to be giving her ideas without really throwing herself out there. Nerwen I'm still not sure. Her situation is about the same as Lalaith. Rikae didn't vote. There could be an innocent explanation, but no one is counted as a sure innocent yet. Eonwe seems wholesome. Nothing she's said or done so far looks off to me. But those are just my views. I could be totally wrong. |
So, here's my impression of my fellow houseguests.
Nessa Well, I have already discussed her as part of my Fea analysis. Her comments today are disingenuous – particularly that people voting for wolves can’t be wolves, and this of course includes her. Pitchwife/Eonwe I will analyse these two together as today they seem to be twins.. First, the two of them have (to me at least) fairly protracted and pointless conversation about McCaber possibly not being the seer – particularly as Eonwe eventually answers his own question (that a false seer claim actually gives us two wolves). Then there is their mutual defence system. I make a sympathetic comment to Pitchwife about his error over McCaber, and Eonwe answers with a defence of his own actions, even though no-one (as far as I can make out) has questioned them. Then Pitchwife steps in to question my comments about Eonwe. I answer them, and he defends Eonwe once again. This is all really suspicious, to my mind. Rikae – participating more, and her analysis just now was good. She has also picked up on the Pitchwife/Eonwe bond. I am inclined to trust her for now. Inziladun – active, raising good points – dismissing the ‘McCaber is a fake’ argument briskly - so again, inclined to trust for now. Shastanis Athreduin – spent yesterday being very ‘busy’, but not, to my mind, helpful, which is why I voted for him. This busy unhelpfulness is further underlined by his failure to vote. Has been arguing with Nogrod today – although this is at least more ‘substantial’ behaviour it is also overly defensive so I am still feeling anxious about him. McCaber- Known innocent so has no agenda – we need to remember this. Nogrod – I trust him for now as he appears to be working hard using evidence and analysis to get solutions; only flaw is that he does not always take the differing personalities of others into account. Actually, my chief worry about you, my friend, is that this strange house has played such tricks on your mind that you are claiming Sancerre as a pinot noir. ;) autume98 – we’ve had very little but uncertainty from her. Understandable, perhaps, but still, clouds of confusion are useful things to hide in. Nerwen – I agree with what little she’s said so far, but I am getting impatient with her lack of participation. |
All right, I'm back functioning again. Probably around until the end of the day.
So far I think what has been said so far toDay is helpful. Now we need people to talk about each other's analyses and what they think about them. (Taking a cue from Nogrod's book here, because that's at the core of finding suspects.) |
So what is everyone else thinking around now? We need to be ready to discuss before we vote, and the deadline isn't that far off. I'm interested in the thoughts of those of us who haven't spoken much.
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Well, I know one person I can trust for sure. There are a few who still frighten me a bit, and a few who have gotten more onto my good side. And then come those who have not said enough to show me much of them at all. Nerwen, guess which one you're in right now.
What? Can't a seer make fun of people too? This is a high-stress job we're talking about. |
I need to vote now (as stated elsewhere). I appear to have four main suspects and clearly they can't all be wolves. So my process of elimination involves asking myself - could there be an innocent explanation?
First off, Nessa. I have speculated on wolf-on-wolf voting, but the alternative is that Nessa simply found Fea guilty-like. And after all, she was right - Fea was guilty. Then her comment today about wolves not voting for each other may also have been based on a genuine belief. So, benefit of the doubt for her. Shasta - his explanation for yesterday is that he was trying to fulfill the hostess' edict - and he did, I have now noted, explain his failure to vote elsewhere. I am never impressed by defensiveness but some perfectly innocent people do get prickly when prodded. So, benefit of the doubt for him too. Then, Eonwe and Pitchwife. I may be being dense, but I can't really think of a likely innocent explanation for their double-act. It is however possible that one of them is an unwitting stooge. Which? Actually I think it is more likely to be Eonwe - he is being defensive, and Pitchwife might be taking advantage of this and fostering him as an ally. So, my conclusion is... ++Pitchwife |
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"One thing I had forgotten was that everyone in a tie gets double-lynched (for now). That makes it a good deal less likely that Nogrod is a wolf, unless Shasta is too– for would a wolf be able to resist letting the Seer and an innocent die, just by "forgetting" to vote? 'Now Shasta I think is indeed rather suspicious– he persists treating our horrifying predicament as though it's just... oh... I don't know," she frowned, "some kind of game. 'But then Nogrod has been going after him for this, which looks pretty innocent." Nerwen shrugged. "I don't know... I suppose it could be a wolf trying to drop a hint to his packmate. 'The more actually suspicious votes were from Inzi– tying McCaber with Fea– and Pitchwife– creating the three-way tie. However, I believe Pitchwife says he missed Lal's vote. 'I think we should remember, also, that the total number of votes cast was small, so ties were almost bound to happen at some point." EDIT: X'd since Lalaith at #176. (I was called away, came back and posted without refreshing. Silly of me.) |
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But if you Rikae - or anyone else - think you might learn something from a quite thorough reading & analysis of yesterDay's voting you might wish to check back #144 and #157 (previous page). It took me two hours to make them... But yes, it was good you Rikae took the time to make a few comments on those votes as well. Different accounts of the same events tend to give one a bit larger view." Nogrod Thought for a moment and then poured himself one more glass of wine. "Okay, by yesterDay's voting I'd say I'd tend to trust the following eg. not wishing to see any of them lynched: McCaber of course. No reason to doubt him right now. Lalaith: If she was a wolf she could have easily voted for McCaber to save Fea - or give a second vote to Inzil, Nessa or Eönwë. So giving Shasta a first vote at that point would have been totally leaving her mate alone when she could have helped her quite discreetly as well. The same goes for Pitchwife if he really didn't know what had happened two minutes before his vote. And on these things I guess we just have to trust. Inziladun: Has been very considerate and reasonable all the time - making some very good points every now and then. Nerwen and Rikae should take part more. You two are intelligent people and could help. I do hope your wish is to aid us and not those cursed werewolves..." With that Nogrod left the room with the glass in his hand. "Back soon, soonish..." |
As people have been making their cases, I'm taking it all in. I've been quietly sipping my coffee and enjoying my muffin. I put my coffee mug on the table and decide to throw in my two cents worth.
Nessa voted for Fea. Could be a wolf on wolf vote. If that were the case it would be pretty risky. So for now I'm going to go with a knee jerk reaction. The vote also did help us get rid of one werewolf. Inzil voted for McCaber when Fea needed it. Nessa brought this point up. Does seem a little suspicous. I'm keeping it in mind. Shasta didn't vote on yesterDay. Not sure what to think of Pitchwife at the moment. It seems that people are finding Pitchwife suspicious. Nogrod seems ok so far. Great insight and good commentary. However no one is beyond suspicion. Could be good cover. At this time though I'm good with Nogrod. Lalaith voted for Shasta. However there's not much to go on with Lalaith at the moment. I did find her findings about Pitchwife and Eonwe interesting. Nerwen makes a good point that Inzil did vote for McCaber which tied the votes withFea. I don't know enough about Rikae. I'm not sure what to make of Eonwe. Eonwe voted for McCaber however at the time McCaber was coming across as suspicious. So could be genuine. At this time I'm ok with Eonwe. I pick up my coffee once again and observe what is going around me. |
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Pitchwife: 1 (Lalaith) You know, just in case anyone was wondering. |
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"By the way, Lalaith," said Nerwen, recalling something the other woman had said earlier,
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Edit:X'd since McCaber. |
Once again night is nearly here. I give it about two hours before the worst of it hits.
And it's strange, but I myself am unsure of who to vote. I was actually hoping for more discussion, but I suppose that two hours is a long time in this scenario. Well, there's no way I like Eonwe, or perhaps even Lal or Pitchwife. I'll give this another pondering and see if anything strikes me. |
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EDIT:X'd with McCaber. |
You people really are going to have to make up your minds. If I don't say anything, I'm "unhelpful". If I do, I'm "defensive". You can't have it both ways. So which is it?
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OK, I'm sorry. I was mistaken. It appears that it was I spoke to Pitchwife 3 times on the matter of the seer.
Also, some of the stuff that's been said about me has ridiculous. "Giving tips to Pitchwife"...:rolleyes: If you're going to accuse me, at least come up with a good reason. |
So it looks like we have another last-minute voting rush. Can people at least say who you're planning on and why, so as to avoid another debacle like the last Day? Anything that limits confusion and maximizes effectiveness, especially in clearing out relations between people.
EDIT: crossed with Eonwe |
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And McCaber is right, we should pull our act together. I'm going to give a thought on that in a moment. |
Now look at this! I leave you people alone for a couple of hours, and whoops! here's the first vote for me - with more to come, the way it looks. I guess it had to come, in a game where everybody suspects everybody. Just makes me wonder how wrong I may have been myself in my suspicions of some other people.
Like McCaber, for example - and possibly Shasta, too. Indeed, I like the way Shasta defended himself against Nogrod toDay. Maybe in his case, too, what looks like suspicious behaviour is just personal style? And the whole thing between Shasta and Inzil needs to be inspected closer. Inzil did indeed misrepresent Shasta's explanation of his doings upstairs, whether on purpose or not. That is no big matter in itself, but his constant denying of what is on record for everybody to check I find puzzling. He also was very quick to pick up Eönwe's early (very early!) suspicion of Shasta, with very little to base such a suspicion on at the time. This is where Shasta's career as a suspect actually began, before Nogrod came in. I'm also very worried by the fact that Boro, who clearly suspected Inzil and voted for him, was conveniently killed before he could explain himself. Had he realized that Shasta had been set up as a diversion? I'm not going to reiterate everything I've already said about my cross-posting last evening. Believe it or not, it's true. Since the main other reason I'm being suspected is my interaction with Eönwe, a few words about that are required, I think. Lalaith, just because I thought and said that your attack on Eönwe was unwarranted at the time doesn't mean I'm in league with him and trust him more than I do anybody else. I'm very curious about him and would very much like to know which side he's on. (If you want to know why, look closely at our interaction in the early yesterDay morning hours.) My best way to form an opinion about him is talking to him. I also have the impression that Eönwe and Inzil were playing very smoothly into each other's hands last morning (the Shasta suspicion, the blood-phobia theory), but at the moment I find Inzil more suspicious. Indeed, Inzil is my prime suspect as of this. EDIT: typos corrected |
"Retaliatory defense"? Hm, yes, I suppose you could call it that, because you're using the same complaint you use every game in order to suspect me after other people already have.
Oooh, look! I'm following the moddess's request! How suspicious! ++Nogrod |
Looking back at my earlier thoughts on whom I'd be more hesitant to vote toDay leaves me with four people. Namely: Nessa, Shasta, autume and Eönwë. Sadly I'm not too enthusiastic of lynching these people either. But let me see.
Nessa then. As people have said already, voting wolf-on-wolf early is a possible idea but sounds a bit dangerous. Also Fea's comment of Nessa not being a wolf looks more like she tried to make herself look good being considerate and such by calling a retaliation not a probable wolvish action at that point. The only thing that actually bothers me there is Nessa's point on not being just retaliating... So was there a communication breakdown of sorts there? Props for Inzil for noticing it. Shasta's behaviour kind of irritates me a bit. After that morning rant - when he promised to make cases - he's just disappeared and now pops up only to say that he's unhappy with how some of us look at him because of what he does or does not do. Anyway, Would he act like that if he was a wolf? That then is the question. Autume I think might need a bit more time to adjust in and I might be willing to give her the benefit of the doubt at least toDay. Eönwë has somehow slipped my radar completely - or almost. I need to check what you others have been saying about him and what he has done himself... EDIT: X'd with Pitch and... Shasta... okay then... |
*strides into the room*
Well, decision time again. Thanks to McCaber, we did well yesterDay. Rather than say what I think of everyone, I'll keep it at things that I find striking, as time is short. Quote:
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Shasta I still don't trust. He seems to have pretty well continued his previous pattern of popping in and out without saying anything to help our cause. I have yet to see his case against four of us, of which one was me. |
Nogrod - what I've said, combined with the fact that he jumped on (and, really, attempted to lynch) me after Inzil started his word-twisting campaign.
Lalaith - blindly followed Nogrod, which I found suspicious. Inziladun - Pitchwife has already made the point - Zil repeatedly says "he must have misunderstood", but it would have taken all of five seconds to go and look back and what I actually did say; yet, he continues to insist that I said something different. |
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