Ye Knighte voteth
 

I believe I have waited long enough. My vote goeth to:

++CaptainofDespair

as ye persone who is believed moste likely to be ye Beare. Hopefully, only one shall die toNighte insteade of two.

I am going to shamelessly (almost) double post because I cross-posted with a few people.

This is interesting... Don't you mean the Wolves tonight? I mean, really. It's in the best interest of the Bear to kill the Wolves, not a gifted. The gifted villagers are completely defenseless against the bear...only the wolves can kill him. I may be viciously jumping on this, but I find it interesting that you said the bear, when I would expect the wolves to bother with killing a gifted villager. Though I suppose the bear might be afraid of him being the seer, the wolves have to worry about all of the gifted villagers.

Now, it is time for me to depart. I do hope I return not as a spirit.

As of right now, after reading through all the evidence presented to day so far,
my suspect list follows:
Bear: Captain of Despair

cobbler: Gil Galad
Gurthang

Wolves: Gil Galad
Durelin
Nonnacedak

I'm replying as I read the thread, so forgive me if the same points have been addressed by others.

LMP could be one of the wolves, since Mith tried to label him as the seer and therefore make us want to keep him alive. Looking back at Mith's posts, it's evident that she was playing pretty boldly, posting a lot but getting very indignant if she was accused. This might have been a trick she hoped would clear a fellow wolf (note might).

Having helped lynch a werewolf is not necessarily proof of innocence, as SamwiseGamgee said. It's true that you did opt to vote for the wolf instead of Gurthang, who had the next highest number of votes, but even so -- voting for a wolf does not always mean innocence, and repeating how one has helped lynch a wolf is even worse (cite Eomer in WW7, if such references are permitted).

I looked over SpM's nice little chart of voting stats, and I think it's interesting how the wolves apparently did not try to divert suspicion onto Gurthang after it seemed that Mith was the primary target. If the wolves voted late, perhaps it was too late for them to do so, but it could have been possible when Mith had 6 votes (which was a plateau for some time) and many villagers had not yet voted. Nonnacedak brought Mith's vote count up to six; while she had six votes, these people voted for others:

If any in this group had been wolves, it would have made more sense to vote for Gurthang rather than those they chose instead, who had only one or two votes. Although the wolves could have decided to give up since Mith was likely to be lyched, it was still early enough to tip the scales.

I therefore am suspicious of Gil, because when Gurthang had 2 votes and Mith had 3, he voted for Gurthang to tie it, possibly hoping that others would bandwagon on Gurthang.

Yes, LMP, I was agreeing with what you said -- remember that you were the one who brought it up. I thought Gurthang's words seemed a little suspicious at first, paired with the fact that he spoke up right away (seemed a little eager to me), but I am no longer suspicious of him.

The Beorning kind of acts randomly, doesn't s/he? It doesn't matter much to him/her who dies -- that's the role. If anything, I'd think the Beorning would try to avoid killing those s/he had mentioned, to separate him/herself from the victim as much as possible.

I'll vote around midnight, I think. I'll be looking at the stars, I suppose. Sometimes they make me feel less lonely...

Let's stop a minute here, guys. The only person who has provided lengthy and meaningful insight thus far is SpM. I'll tell you this for certain: I am not a wolf and I am not acting as one in defending SpM, a fellow wolf, as you may think. I am really uncomfortable with the idea of killing SpM tonight, especially after some of the behaviour we've witnessed today. I can't tell you guys how to vote- but pause and look back over the posts: do you honestly think SpM is guilty? Is Durelin, though, perhaps beginning a campaign against SpM because he senses the time is right to have us kill one he knows is not one of hiss fellow wolf-cloven? I wonder.

A fair observation. But, if I was the Bear, do you really think that I would outline what I believe to be the Bear's likely pattern of behaviour and then go and act in precisely that way myself? That would be a bold bluff indeed.

No, I meant the Bear. If CaptainofDespair is not a Bear, only the Bear will know that. If he is innocent but escapes the noose today, the Wolves may still suspect him to be the Bear. And I believe that it is in the best interests of the Wolves to keep the Bear alive for as long as possible since they win if only they and the Bear survive and they profit from the two kills per night. The Bear however (and this assumes the Captain is not a Bear) may well conclude from what he has said that he is a Gifted Villager and therefore target him tonight.

My understanding is that only the Ranger is powerless against the Bear. If the Seer dreams of him/her, then he/she will be revealed. And if the Hunter is attacked by him/her, the Hunter's chosen victim will die.

Funnily enough, Durelin, your vote for me as the Bear lessens my suspicions of you. For the reasons stated above, a Wolf is unlikely to vote for someone they believe to be the Bear. Unless, of course, you are the Bear ...

Ok because of some lovely suspicion pointed my way and the fact that I dont have much more time tonight I am going to throw a vote out there.

I think the fact that Gil-Galad did start to sway the votes back for Gurthang when Mith was starting to get ganged up up shows us a lot...

I also want to get a vote out there early (since voting 6th has made some people think Im the wolf ~sigh~) to someone who I think really is a wolf. I do realize that voting early makes me a possible bear but really the only defense I have is to say is Im simply not the bear! (yes I know its pathetic)

++Gil-Galad

Good luck to us all!

An interesting observation
 

I believe that Gil-Galad is the most likely candidate for the Cobbler. Yes, he has acted suspiciously. But, in the face of some pretty heavy accusation, he has done little to defend himself. I agree that aggresively defending oneself is suspicious behaviour but, if Gil was a Wolf, I would expect a little more from him than he has shown to date.

Interestingly, if my running observations are correct, everybody has voiced suspicion of Gil-Galad except LMP, Durelin and Lalaith. And while LMP has made acusations against both of them, I believe that neither Durelin nor Lalaith has voiced any serious suspicion of the other.

Right now, my thinking is along the following lines:

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

Wolves: Lalaith and Durelin

Cobbler: Gil-Galad

But, as I said, I'll vote tomorrow.

Well, I'm going to vote. I begin work in just a little over 3 hours ( :( ) and won't be able to vote before nightfall.

++ CaptainofDespair

I'm as sure as I can be that he's the bear. Furthermore, he's the person I'm most suspicious of at the moment, and so I'll vote for him. Judge me as you will.

Well, well, I'm back. I have figured out in my best interests to hope for me to get up and vote, but im interested in seeing more.

We have an interesting decision on our hands...Tough one for myself. So here's out it been so far.

1. Captain of Despair: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 1)
2. Meneltarmacil: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 1, CoD: 1)
3. Durelin: for Saucepan Man (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1)
4. Nonnacedak: for Gil-Galad (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 1, G-G: 1)
5. Samwise: for Captain of Despair (Saucepan: 2, CoD: 2, G-G: 1

With this new voting situation unfolding, hmm Durelin has slipped in to be a likely vote.

Edit: crossposting with Samwise, filled in the additional vote.

Well, I'm posting again because I have come to a decision. I was going to wait til morning but I fear I won't get up and can't put this off.

The thought of having the blood of an innocent on my hands is disturbing, but the idea of letting go the possible black beorning is even more...

++Captain of Despair

Well, I'm getting too tired to think clearly and so will be turning in for the night. At this point, I honestly do not know who I will be voting for, though my (not so short) list is: Durelin, Gil, Lalaith, CaptainofDespair, Nonnacedak, in no particular order. Laitaine is still on my watch list but I doubt I will be voting for her.

I think that this vote could be telling - we shall see.

After weighing all the evidence presented so far today, I must post my vote for

++Captain of Despair

Point well put, my dear Gurthang, I had not thought of this.
I’d forgotten that the Cobbler would go far to steal death’s kiss.
Which brings us to the question: whose life is he trying to save?
Perhaps he realized that a wolf’s in danger of his grave.
Perhaps we should look at his posts with very careful eyes
Something clearly triggered this quick race to his demise.

That may be the case, my friend, but that seems to bold a ruse
A man talks like this also when he has nothing to lose.

*sighs at the thought*

Another clever point, my friend, of which I am aware
It seems to me that CoD is Cobbler, not the bear.
When Captain took up quickly his most suicidal stance,
I would have thought it obvious the motive for his rants.
Saucie could have seen this as a chance to pin his blame
And aimed it at the earliest suspicious-looking name.

*purses lips*

However, Durelin, our Saucie counters very well.
If your claims were true, then it’s far too simple to tell.
I think a Bear (or wolf!) would hide his plans with much more skill
For now, I think that we should keep Saucepan Man with us still.

*yet another sigh*

I think perhaps, dear Durelin, you aren't in the clear.
YOU were the one who stomped the bar or ripped of both Morm's ears!
Whether you are bear or wolf, I do not care to know.
Your aim to take out Saucepan Man makes you the likely foe.
So far, Samwise Gamgee said, he's given much insight
A wolf or bear would want him killed, whether it's day or night.

*sniffles*

'Tis sad there's such suspicion among our once-friendly town,
Yet 'tis the only way we'll live while these wolves are around.
Out of all the people here, Durelin acts with most guilt
Villagers, I’ll wake next morn to see whose breath we’ve stilt.

++DURELIN

Since I don't beleive Saucepan Man to be guilty and I'm not convinced enough to vote for CoD I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Since he's one of the only ones I am actually suspicious of.

I have already stated my reasoning in my last post, so here's the vote.

++GIL-GALAD

Since I made that list, Nonnacedak has somewhat satisfied me; enough so that I will not be voting for him TODAY. Durelin has explained herself close to satisfaction, except for one point, so I do not think I will vote for her again, TODAY at least. Her vote for Saucepan is somewhat frustrating me, because I do not consider him to be suspicious at all. It really doesn't make sense that he woudl talk about the Bear so much and be talking about himself. I think he is innocent.

So it comes down to Gil-Galad and CaptainOfDespair. Gil voted for me yesterday at a crucial time, and many have said they consider it a wolfish trick. On the other hand, Captain has been acting rather cobblerish to me. I'm still going to wait, which means I will be voting very late (within a half an hour of the end of the DAY), but I think it will be for one of those two.

Votes received so far(no order):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIII
Gil-Galad - III
Durelin - I

Wolves might need a Cobbler to die for them...

I think it's suspicious behaviour to defend your fellow villager. The wolves and bear might want to bind themselves to an innocent or the wolves might defend each other. No ordinary villager can have certain information who's guilty and who's innocent.

You have been quite talkative while I was taking a nap. Now that I have read through what you have said I think that the suspicion towards Gil, CoD, Lalaith & Durelin seems reasonable. I think either Gil or Cod is the Cobbler but I don't know what to think of Lalath and Durelin. I won't vote for them today, at least not before they say something that puts the last nail in their coffin.

I've read as far as post 120. Am having a hard time keeping up with this, which I implied in my response to the need for a replacement player.

Gil-Galad seems immature to me, and that's about it. Not particularly suspicious.

Durelin has majorly ratched herself up as suspicious.

Lalaith also seems somewhat suspicious. She kept asking about the Seer/Bear question.

Nonnacedak seems suspicious to me over her "surrounded by liars" comment, but that could be in character.

Boromir's post # 113 seemed like a great diversionary tactic.

WilWarin in post 118 gave some pretty incisive reasoning regading Lalaith & Laitaine. I think she's innocent.

Running out of time here, so:

++ Durelin

I have no idea, by the way, of who has voted for whom. Just thought you should all know that.

++ CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

For reasons, see Saucy's post #152.
I'm now quite wary of Durelin, too, but I need to be sure if there's something wrong with our Captain.

I see that there have been sugestions that CaptainofDespair may be the Cobbler. But I am not sure that I follow the reasoning in this regard.

As far as I can see, the only Cobbler-like behaviour that he has displayed resulted from my suggestion that he may be the Black Beorning. That was at a time when no votes had been cast and various names had been thrown around as possible Wolves. It seems to me that there was far too little uncertainty at that stage to provoke a Cobbler into acting suspiciously in the hope of offering him/her-self up in place of a Wolf. I don't think that CaptainofDespair is the Cobbler. I do, however, still think that he is the most likely candidate for Black Beorning.

I would also add that our priority should be to lynch either a Wolf or the Bear. The Cobbler is a thorn in our side and an asset to the Wolves, yes, and I would rather see him or her lynched in place of an innocent Villager. But better still to lynch one of the lyncanthropes.

For me, the issue comes down to whether we gun for the Bear or one of the remaining Wolves. There is far more chance of bagging a Wolf than a Bear, particularly as (based on the Day 1 voting) there are a number of Villagers who are most unlikely to be Wolves. But it would be great to bring down the Bear and thereby reduce our exposure at Night.

If we are going for the Bear, then I believe that CaptainofDespair should face the gallows today. He is the only Villager who, in my view, has displayed any firm evidence of Bearish behaviour.

As for the Wolves, my prime suspects are Durelin and Lalaith. But I have not discounted the possibility of Encaitare, wilwarin538 or Laitaine being Wolves either.

The following, in my opinion, are most unlikely to be Wolves:

CaptainofDespair
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

Gil-Galad I believe to be either the Cobbler or a confused but innocent Villager. His behaviour just seems too risky to me for a Wolf, particularly with one of their number down already.

Which leaves Firefoot, arcticstorm, LMP and dancing spawn. They all seem to be acting innocently to me. But, then again, that does make me rather uneasy about them ...

There are five people left to vote: SpM, Lalaith, Gurthang, Gil, and myself. With the score at Gil - 3; CoD - 5; SpM - 2; Durelin - 2; the vote could still go to any of these. I do not feel suspicious of SpM at this point, and I keep going back and forth on Gil. That leaves CoD and Durelin. I'm hesitant to vote for CoD since he would have to be the bear for the lynching to be sucessful, and I'm not convinced that I think that. Durelin could be either a wolf or the bear (I don't think she's the bear, though), and the choices for wolvish candidates are much fewer than those for bear. I want to lynch the bear, but the most important thing is to lynch a were-something. The bear will probably be easier to catch after another night or two.

Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought.

Anyway, back to Durelin vs. CoD. While CoD has certainly shown qualities that could be those of a bear, there are too many suspects for bear for us to have any certainty of catching him/her, I think. It would be different if we didn't have any suspects for wolves, but we do, and I think Durelin is likely enough to be one. Hence, my vote is

++DURELIN

Well, after having thought about it, and with time winding down, I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Captain is acting like a cobbler in my opinion, and as Saucepan mentioned a couple posts up, we need to bag a wolf or bear before the cobbler. Gil has been acting the most wolfish, in my opinion, especially yesterday when he voted for me to tie up the voting.


Votes received so far(updated):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIIII
Gil-Galad - IIII
Durelin - III

Well, having reviewed the proceedings to date, I have revised my prime Werewolf suspects. Lalaith I still believe to be a Wolf. Her vote on Day 1 looks very suspicious to me, for the reasons stated at #158. But Durelin has been acting too suspiciously for a Wolf, in my opinion. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for me thinking that I was the Bear. And she made some random accusations earlier today, which I see as un-Wolfish behaviour. So she has moved down my list of suspects, to be replaced by Laitaine.

Laitaine voted for a known innocent on Day 1, and put in a mild defence of Mithalwen when she did so. Alcarillo was killed by the Bear over-Night. Perhaps the Bear had identified her as a possible Wolf and was trying to frame her as the Bear. That would fit in with CaptainofDespair’s encouragement of arcticstorm’s theory that she might be the Bear (assuming that CaptainofDespair is the Bear). Also, as has been pointed out, Lalaith defended Laitaine when I identified her as a possible suspect for being one of the “quiet” ones.

So, my revised list:

Cobbler: Gil-Galad or Durelin

Wolves: Lalaith and Laitaine

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

And now comes the time to vote.

++CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

My vote may well condemn him to the gallows. But, if he is innocent, I would be complicit in his death even if I hadn’t voted for him, since I was the one who first raised the possibility of him being the Bear. And, for the reasons stated earlier, if he is innocent, he’s most probably a gonner to-Night anyway.

On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on! :p :D

Ho hum. There was an Unexpected Party in RL at Soothsayer Mansions last night, with unscheduled guests descending, so I have only now time to read through all the thread and respond in a race against time at the last minute, no doubt making me even more suspicious. Sigh. And I don't have as much time to explain myself as I'd like.
I will vote for
++Captain of Despair
to avoid risk of double lynching which I think would be disasterous for us. But I am somewhat suspicious of Durelin and I am still not at all happy about Gurthang's strange failure to save himself yesterday. I suspect him of being the Cobbler. Boromir's posts seem to have some desire to confuse, about them.
Firefoot, along with the first four to vote for Mith, is not a wolf, whatever else she is.
Saucie would make a dangerous foe indeed, I do hope he is not an enemy, but he has I think tried to be helpful, and his reasoning in post #85 was very sound. I think he and Samwise might be Shirriffs.

Voting is closed. Expect death shortly.

O folk that are heedless...
 

And so decided the Villagers - that CaptainofDespair was Bearish. Enough to lynch, anyway.

"Go ahead. Lynch me. Make my day," said the Shrew Farmer. "You'll see."

He offered no struggles on the way to the faraway lynching tree, he just walked in stony silence.

They tied the rope to his neck and stood back. Pulling the stepstool from underneath him, he hung for only a moment before the change.

Where once a crooked tree had stood, with a rope attatched, there was a crooked tree on the ground, with a rope trailing in the snow.

"He is such an evil being, that the tree itself could not bear him!" cried the Villagers. "It's the hidden bulk of a bear! It's a good omen!"

But they couldn't very well hang him on a felled tree, could they? So they searched for other methods.

They tried feeding him to his own shrews, but they fawned at his feet and attempted to eat the other Villagers.

They tried to impale him on a sliver of wood from the wrecked bar, but it snapped beneath his weight and barely punctured his skin.

They tried to set fire to the bar, but surprisingly, the wood would not catch.

They tried to drown him in the horsetrough, but it sprang a leak and crumbled from disuse, leaving a wide swath of ice around it.

"Wow," they said. "He must be really evil if nothing in the natural realm will touch him! I guess it's up to us, then."

So they stood him in the Village Square, which has been noted not to be square but hexagonal, and plunged a knife into his breast.

The only change that came about was that he was no longer standing.

The Villagers wondered at that. Could they have been...wrong? Chasing after an innocent with murderous intent? Then one of them caught a glimpse of metal underneath his cloak, and uncovered a sword and shield.

Now how could that fit underneath his cloak? No wonder he had looked so bulky and seemed so suspicious!

They wondered why they had not noticed the fastening on his cloak, a many-rayed silver star.

Uh-oh...one feared to say it...Standard-issue Ranger gear.

A trip to CoD's house clinched it. Hidden in various places were more swords and shields, some worn with use.

They'd killed the Ranger, and insured that there would be two kills a night after all.

Love's labor lost
 

The Lady Wormtongue wandered to her favorite moping spot outside the village, where the cliff faced out over the valley, and sat to watch the sun rise. She sighed, and remembered her Grima whining about the "Nassty yellow face", and a tear dropped from her eye.

"Stupid wizard," she sniffed to herself.

A figure materialized out of the woods. "No-one should walk alone, especially in these troubled times," it said.

"I'm always alone," replied Enca.

"I know what it is you seek. Rest assured, it is very near."

"All I want is to see my Grima again, but that is impossible. Three nameless Hobbit archers took care of that."

"I know."

The figure suddenly grea larger. "You shall see your Grima soon," it said, and its voice had grown with its figure.

The Bear roared, and charged. Enca stood bravely at the edge of the cliff, and met the onslaught. It was of course, no contest, and the Beorning swept her off the cliff.

"Griiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimmaaaaaaaaa!" The cry echoed through the valley, and even years later, when a visitor chanced to shout a "Hello!" over the cliff, it would come back as "Grrrriiiimmmaaaalllo!"

Meanwhile, in the Village, two stealthy forms crept into a house, and gathered by the bedside of the occupant. They reached out clawed hands and...turned the lights on.

Firefoot sat up with a snap. "Whu? I wa'nt asleep! There was a fly in my eye and I was trapping it!"

Then she focused, and it left her speechless. There in front of her were two intruders dressed in bright clothes, odd wiggs and large red noses.

"What..." she began, but the two interrupted her.

"Hello!" they cried. "We're here to entertain you!"

"I don't want to be entertained," she said, but it was more of a question than a fact. "I have to be well-rested and alert for tomorrow, as I have important conversations to engage in."

The intruders merely started to dance and caper about, performing strange gymnastic feats. Firefoot watched hypnotically, as if to ascertain wether or not she was dreaming.

The intruders stopped their dance, and stood grinning at her.

"You liked that? Wait 'til you see our encore!" Then they struck. Firefoot put up a great struggle, but in the end she was overcome. They left her crumpled body in the middle of the room, with her Sherriff's badge atop it. Then the Wolves snuck away muttering.

"Why did I have to wear the pink? I look so silly!"

"Shut up and help me get this fake nose off..."

The Villagers were dismayed the next morning when they found the signs by the cliff, and the body of Firefoot. When they removed her body, only one stayed behind in her cabin to check in their secret hiding place for a letter.

Living:
Arcticstorm
Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gil-Galad
Gurthang
Laitaine
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man
Wilwa

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3


It is now DAY 3. Wolves stop PMing, Sherriff...uh, nevermind.

Ye Knighte speaketh againe
 

Captain was ye Ranger? That's not goode. I'm sorry I voted for him. Him and Firefoot...two Gifteds deade already. Deare me...

I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken.

I remaine suspiciouse of Gil-Galad and Lalaith, and possibly Durelin.

In fact, Meneltarmacil, I would say that killing Enca would actually be the best course of action for the bear: kill a quiet villagers for no reason and avoid leaving a trail that leads to you. Remember, the wolves are working as a team- the bear isn't. In fact, it serves the bear to actually just kill randomly and avoid raising suspicions about him/herself. Thtat's why it's so hard to actually identify the bear.

As for the wolves, I haven't yet had a chance to go through the thread and form my suspicions on who would want to kill Firefoot, and I'm leaving for work soon. I won't be back until Midnight (GMT+1), so don't view my early post and sustained silence afterward as suspicious, please.

I can see why suspicion is being directed towards those of us who did not vote for Mith on the first day. But bear in mind that none of the villagers (except the 2 other wolves and very, very possibly the Seer) actually knew that Mith was a wolf.
If she had turned out to be innocent, suspicions would now be directed in a very different way. For my part, I didn't join in because I don't like bandwaggoning. But I can see why other people are keen on it, its a good way to avoid being singled out for suspicion.

As for Gil, I can also understand why he is under suspicion. I'm not too happy about him myself, but on the other hand, perhaps he is just being Gil.
I'm still feeling wary about Boromir and Gurthang. Boromir's assertions that innocence should not defend itself seemed instrumental in the lynching of our Ranger. And Gurthang because of his funny voting on the first day.
On a personal level I am of course worried about Mene and Saucie as they suspect me, but I am trying not to let personal feelings get in the way. However I do sense the hints of some kind of complicity between Mene and Boromir.

Oh and apologies for failing to notice Oddwen's reply yesterday about my Seer question.

O Horribly Depressing Day, we’ve lost more of our town
This time they were thrown off a cliff or entertained by clowns!
These werewolves have sick humor, that is one thing for sure
They are so perverse that I cannot take much more.

Clearly, yesterday we made a very grave mistake
Captain was the greatest loss that we ourselves could make
Well--no, we have the Seer still--but will (s)he too last long?
Or will I have to write for him/her a dismal funeral song?

Friends, we must be careful--we killed our main protection
Wolves would much more cunningly hide from our best detection
Even our sly Cobbler has been keeping a lowdown.
Clearly, we must scour every corner of our town.

Who did Encai talk about? Who did FF blame?
What motive would these beasts have to take out each dame?
But careful, these fiends won’t be who these two women accused!
A wolf (or bear!) would kill to frame another as a ruse.
Encai talked of several names: LMP, Non, and Gil
Firefoot had shown that lynching Durelin was her will.
Now we must look at these names, and how they have connection
With Encai’s rather hasty fall and Firefoot’s dissection.

*taps recorder in lap, frustrated*

Of course, these beasts could double-bluff--so think with thorough care.
I will not be here most of the day, but vote early? I don‘t dare.
I will come back here later tonight to see what has been said.
And now my friends, I play a song to honor our new dead.

*honks a D minor arpeggio most despairingly*

After hearing of today's deaths I have reviewed everything said by the four killed at night. I will start by listing what was said, suspicion-wise, by the wolf victims, and then will move to the bear victims.

Morm's first list of suspicions points to Firefoot, Mithalwen, and myself. The next time he voices suspicion, he changes it to Samwise, CoD and Mith. Later he voices suspicion of anyone who voted for Mith, in case she was innocent, with special interest on Menel and Alcarillo. He then votes for Meneltarmacil. He was probably killed for his role in bringing out Mith.

Firefoot: On Day one she was only really suspicious of Mithalwen and voted for him.
On the second day, she originally posted a little suspicion or confusion toward Gil, Durelin, Nonnac. Laitaine, and Wilwa.
Later she became mionorly suspicios of CoD. With her list being Durelin, Gil, Lalaith, CoD, and Nonnacedak.
And later points out that Gurthang may be the bear.
She votes for Durelin as wolf, because there are too many people who could be the bear.

On to the Bear victims.
Alcarillo: voiced minor suspicion of Gurthang but more toward LMP. Later he put Mith on the top of the list and voted for him. NOt much to go on there yet, but I will examine it further with Enca's suspicions later. He ended up by voting for a Mithalwen.

Enca: On Day 1 she voiced suspicion of Gurthang early on, and didn't say much else for the rest of the day
On day 2: Post suspicion of LMP being a wolf. She becomes suspicious of Gil and votes for Gil. She may have beeen killed for her contributions shortly after the day was half over, but let us look at that closer.

Alcarillo's next suspect was LMP, he got himself killed.
Enca also voices some suspicion of LMP and gets herself killed by the bear. This may be a coincidence or it may be someone trying to frame LMP. Or maybe LMP is the bear. Yes Enca voiced suspicion of him being a wolf, but if people vote to kill him of wolvery, he still dies wether he is a wolf or a bear.

Right now my wolf suspicion list is Durelin first followed by Gil
and LMP heads up my bear suspicion list.

At this stage I also think both wolves and bear are killing those who are not under strong suspicion from the village. The reasoning being that they wouldn't bother killing off people that the villagers might lynch for them anyway.

Well, I am truly sorry for my role in CaptainofDespair's death. If only he had not reacted quite so indignantly to my suggestion that he might be the Bear and then all but revealed his secret role, he would probably be with us still.

I thought that he was bluffing when he (more or less) claimed to be Gifted. But I am pretty sure that at least one, and quite possibly two, of those who voted for him believed his claim and concluded that he might well be the Ranger. Unfortunately, they were correct.

I agree with SamwiseGamgee that poor Encaitare was a good choice of kill for the Black Beorning. Although, having said that, just about anybody would be a reasonable choice except, perhaps, someone who had accused him or her yester-Day.

I am very sorry to lose Firefoot. Her insights have always been helpful and her loss is all the more grievous in light of her Shirriff status. I have a pretty good idea who the other Shirriff may be, but it is for him or her to decide whether to reveal that. If they do, they will face almost certain death tonight, but may be able to help us today.

My suspicions concerning the Wolves are, at the moment, pretty much as they were at the end of the Day yesterday. Lalaith and Laitaine are my main suspects, although I am less suspicious of Durelin in this regard. her early vote for me yesterday, on the grounds that she believed me to be the Bear, just does not seem to me to be Wolfish behaviour. And Gil-Galad is almost certainly the Cobbler or a misguided innocent. He did not even turn up to vote yester-Day when his neck was on the line throughout much of the Day.

I am, however, retaining an open mind, and I really have no idea now who the Bear might be. Time to look back on the proceedings to date in light of last Night's gruesome and tragi-comedic happenings.

i would have to agree with Lailaith there, the Wolves/bear are hitting people off that aren't big on suspicon.... oh yeah, Hear ye Hear Ye, Firefoot and Enca have both been deceased, were running out of graves, more news at 11!

Edit: also yesterday, i totally forgot to vote when i got back home, i'll try to remember today(think to, i usually have to vote early...)

*sigh* at Saucepanman's continuing suspicion of me. I would suspect you right back, my friend, were it not for the fact that I think your late vote for CoD yesterday seemed to be reasoned from the same motive as my own vote, to avoid a double lynching, and that this is something only a person with the village's interests at heart would do.

As for the other Shirriff, my instinct at this stage, is that they should keep quiet unless they are in serious danger of being lynched. And that anyone who has suspicions about his/her identity should also keep quiet.

I knew there was something innocent about our poor Shrew Farmer! And his shrews were so tasty...the poor little buggers... Alas Firefoot, I am so sorry for my initial vote for this innocent soul. And poor Enca, who did nothing to harm anyone.

I'm afraid I will be gone till later this day. Please do not take my absence as suspicious. I'm sure you probably have many other suspicions of me, but I hope you will take a moment to reconsider, before we lynch another innocent. Our Ranger is gone, we are vulnerable to the wolves and the bear. I hope the Seer has some insight, whoever they are. And I hope our Hunter will have good judgement, whenever the wolves come upon him.

Since I have had more time to look at others' posts, Gil-Galad is giving me much suspicion, since he is very wolfish- probably the Cobbler, as you say. He has yet to have anything to say. Some people accuse me of the same thing, but I think that to be unfair.

My trust for The Saucepan Man has been lessened even more, but I do not think it is grounds for lynching...yet. His taking of the lead is either just him being very helpful as an innocent (and perhaps even gifted), or he knows something we all do not due to his guilt.

I see Laitaine and Lalaith are under suspicion. When I return later, I will read through everyone's posts more carefully.

I would love to hear more from LMP, as he seems to be escaping any consideration. His absence is most likely understandable, but I'd still like to hear what he has to say.

Sorry, I must depart now. Please do not lynch me while I am gone, and insure yet another night of two kills and two wolves.

Some more lists ...
 

OK, here’s my handy list of Day 2 voting:

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

I still believe that none of those who voted second to sixth for Mithalwen on Day 1 are Wolves. To have voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 1, at a time when she was attracting all the votes but could yet be saved, would be an incredible bluff. A good way of looking innocent thereafter, perhaps. But surely too risky.

And, as I have said above, I believe that at least one Wolf, and possibly two voted for CaptainofDespair yesterday, concluding that he was (as indeed he was) the Ranger.

The only Villagers who were not in the first six to vote for Mithalwen and who voted for CaptainofDespair are:

Arcticstorm
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
The Saucepan Man
Lalaith

Arctistorm’s accusations of Mithalwen earlier on Day 1 make him less suspicious in my eyes. And I know that I am innocent.

Which leaves Lalaith and dancing spawn. Lalaith I already suspect. But I really have no idea about dancing spawn. She seems innocent, but it might prove dangerous to assume her innocence simply on that basis.

I am less convinced that a Wolf would have voted for Gil-Galad, since he is such a prime candidate for Cobbler (even if he is not one). The Wolves don’t know who the Cobbler is, but will want him or her to stay alive for as long as one of their own number is not at risk.

Difficult to say who the Bear would have voted for as, let's face it, the Bear can vote for just about anyone without looking too suspicious.

I must admit that, on reflection, the Night's events make me even less suspicious of Durelin, of Werewovery at least. Firefoot's killing points to her, since she made strong accusations against Firefoot yester-Day and Firefoot voted for her. That looks mightily like a frame up to me (although it could be a bold double-bluff, I suppose).

Surely, though, you cannot suspect them of being Wolves. Boromir88's vote for Mithalwen was pretty decisive, and Mithalwen's vote for Gurthang speaks in his favour. Either of them could be the Bear, of course. Indeed, it would not surprise me at all if the Bear was hiding in that gaggle of Villagers who voted early for Mithalwen.

Arcticstorm, the analysis that leads you to that conclusion is an attractive one. And my thoughts have been leading in that direction too. My only concern is that his very early vote on Day 1 might be regarded as overly risky behaviour for a Bear. Nevertheless, I feel that LMP has a role to play in all of this.

I tend to agree. Unless there is some way to organise a mass lynching ...