Here momentarily. It's been a long day, with family visits unfortunately mingled with dangerous weather situations. All seems to be quieting down now though, and I plan to be around much more tomorrow.

Your explanation later in that post seems reasonable, I guess. On the minus side, I tend to be suspicious of people who make a point of saying "Let's get those wolves!", as if to spotlight their innocence. I will say you probably wouldn't be my primary candidate for a vote at this time.

Nerwen made a good point addressing this.

I was curious about that myself.

I totally didn't see the extension until now...

Still find McCab suspicious but obviously now that I have time I may find my vte unfortunate, as one big purpose of the vote was to avoid modfiring befre DL tonight(as I thought it was still tonight and whether or not I'd be back was in question...)

I hope this post is straight forward enough if not:


Silti löytää McCab epäluuloinen, mutta ilmeisesti nyt minulla on aikaa saatan löydän VTE valitettavaa, sillä yksi iso tarkoituksena äänestys oli välttää modfiring befre DL tänä iltana (koska ajattelin, että se oli vielä tänä iltana ja onko olisin takaisin oli kyseessä ...)***

***Courtesy of Google-Translate

Modlote posted it only after your vote, I think.

I thought of that too– but then an innocent– particularly one who has already been poked at a bit– might well be afraid that changing the name would be taken as a "wolf-slip". Although, I suppose you could say that her posting in general shows a bit too much concern with her "appearance".

My own problem with #177 is that it takes such a very long time to make a few, very obvious points that could have been made in a few lines.

Not that they're bad points, mind. McCaber's vote for Sally *is* peculiar– even, if that's not too loaded a word, "hypocritical", coming from someone who had barely been around himself. And his subsequent explanations don't really explain anything. Wolfish, though? It seems too clearly (and pointlessly) a "bad" vote for a wolf to make, unless there was a very good reason. In this case, the only one I could think of would be a Zil-McCaber pack, but I'll have to read through things to see how likely that might be.

I'll have more to say later, but I have to go now.

EDIT: fixed accidentally deleted sentence.

...her? I hate it when computers delete stuff. :(

Don't know how that happened. I'll fix it.

While it seems clear that your vote came when you were under the impression that the Day would end earlier, it looks a bit strange that you take such pains to explain it while still saying Cab is suspicious.

Day 2 Reread
 

This is a pretty decent point. But, as you say yourself, there's no solution and it doesn't exactly yield anything.

Statistically, this is true. But I am positive that at least one of the wolves was among the people who did vote.

Can't tell. I haven't played much with him, and that time he was just as secretive and quiet. I can't say that this behavious is necessarily suspicious, but it is quite irritating.

Can't see how that's suspicious. See, people don't wait around all day next to their computers (I wish!) but maybe RL doesn't allow them to participate earlier. Some have to leave really early because RL doesn't allow them to participate in the second half of the Day, but that's not suspicious. Why should the other one be?

So this is what happened. Boro said that he watched a bunch of videos to imitate reindeer sounds. Following that, both Morsul and I opened Youtube (well I don't know what Morsul opened but I used Youtube) and searched reindeer videos. Morsul said that it's not-in-game scary that I would think like him at all, not related to the game in any way.

I know that Morsul tends to say three sentences for one punctuation mark, but it's not as confusing as you make it sound.

I would not disagree or argue with you on this, but, in all honesty, I want to ask you: why is it that you didn't like Boro's idea? I thought it's quite innovative, and while it doesn't hand you down the village victory it's something new to analyse instead of the old worn-down pattern.

I think it is possible that one of them is a wolf, but something doesn't sit right about them as a pack. I do not think it's as simple as you make it sound. I would think that the wolves' connection would be less obvious.

Morsul, a question for you. You've stated your suspicions on Cabbie and some thoughts on Lommy. What about everyone else? If you have time on your hands, would you mind making a list?

This makes me slightly uneasy upon reread. I would expect Nerwen to be less... nice? about it.



Gosh, writing posts in a pain when you're listening to old Russian music and watching Star Wars simultaneously!

Why is this game so dead? Post, people!

Just letting everyone know that I'm here... relatively. Expect thoughts from me in a few hours.

Edit - X'ed with G55, who is clearly not as exhausted from Christmas and immediately-following opening shifts at work as some people. :p

Out of curiosity, did you ever find anything useful in analyzing the Night-kill that didn't happen?

Generally, yes, I make my own conclusions about what could have happened during the Night, and yes, it does influence my opinion. That does not mean that I am right in my conclusions, but such speculation never hurts when kept to oneself and when not considered decisive.

Out of curiosity, why do you keep bringing it up?

Catching up and writing (apologies for possibly repeating other people's points)
 

Finally here! I hope you all had as nice Christmas as I did but it looks like you folks posted more. ;) I'll try to redeem that: now here are some thoughts...


YesterDay

Wait, what???

End-of-Day1 Galadriel gives me a fishy feel. Both for praising my vote as impressive (which it wasn't) and her gut-feelingy suspicions that seem just fabricated. (Also "I haven't changed my gut-feelings"... huh? Does that mean you intentionally change them sometimes???)

End-of-Day1 McCaber, on the other hand, seems pretty sincere but I agree with whoever said it's not very profitable for us that he intentionally withholds stuff. Furthermore, his vote is not very impressive really - it's little more than a random vote. (Come on, who abatsins otally from posting intentionally? Most likely people have RL stuff in those cases.) I also like End-of-Day-1 Eönwë. He seems pretty sharp. Shasta has a good point about his vote possibly being suspiciously carefully structured, though.

Not really surprised about Boro being an ordo, and kind of curious about how that lynched happened. It seemed as if it came quite out of the blue even though it kept slowly unfolding during the later hald of the day. Have to think about that.


Last Night

I'm impressed! I don't remember when I last played with a ranger save. I am, however, a little sad of having less clues since there was no kill, but now it will be interesting to think who could have been targeted by both the wolves and the ranger last Night... Off the top of my head, I'd say Shasta, Nerwen, McCaber or Steve. Not very helpful, eh?



ToDay (it's been pretty long already)

Ah, again the confidence in not getting killed... I have started witch hunts on this basis innumerable times. This time I'll just read on and see who starts it first... Although this one really makes my eyebrows jump with the pre-written condolences and all! Also pretty hypocritical-seeming commentary of yesterday in that post. I'm really not very happy about Coppermirror atm... [Later comment: so it was Legate who first brought it up! I knew it'd happen. Not sure what this makes me think of Legate. Probably that he and I think likewise.]

Looking at the voting record posted by McC, I have to say that if Inzil is a wolf, we'd better have a good look at Monsieur McC himself. Steve could be a packmate of Inzil's too. G55's vote looks totally out of plce, and doesn't exactly make me less suspicious of her.

This gal seems just way too self-conscious about what she's posting.

Sally seems pretty ok once she appears.

Thanks Morsul, that actually summarizes how I feel every single ww game. :D

You just made my day, Eönwë!

That does seem pretty suspicious phrasing, I have to say! But it seems to suspicious to be an actual Freudian slip, especially as it's by Morsul.

Fair reasoning.

Please don't kill me! *facepalms while laughing* This one actually makes sense more or less though!

I think from now on I could just post in Finnish, and you guys could google translate it, since it seems to go so well. Deal? :Merisu:


Ha, reading done! Now I could make a list. I have to vote relatively soon/early though, the DL being 6 am my time...

Because it seemed like an exercise in futility, potentially a "Look at me, I'm helpful" deal from a not-so-innocent.

A List
 

Probably got presents this year

Sally - the little she's posted seems actually pretty good. She's reasonable and thinks independently. I'd still like to see more from here to judge better.

Morsul - a bit fishy, I admit, but my gut-feeling says innocent. Far from being my top concern atm.

Nerwen - mostly gut-feeling again, but I don't find her very suspicious. I'd like to hear more from her, though.

Legate - his Boro-suspicion seemed like basic misguided ordo-Legate :p and today he has a train of thought very similar to my own, which makes me feel good about him. Quite alright for the time being.


The blind spot of my elvish intelligence

Shasta - like Sally, a quiet and independent poster, but he reminds me a little too much of succesful wolf-Shastas to make me feel easy about him.

Eönwë - I like his uncompromising thinking (and his jokes!) and he seems reasonable. Then again, there's something about him - notably him seeming a likely packmate for several people - that doesn't really sit right with me.

Zil - I don't know. He's actually under my radar right now. He hasn't really imporved much since yesterDay - in comparison with the general level of discussion (and again it seems he has RL reasons) - but there are way more suspicious people around right now. I'm keeping an eye on him, I guess.

McCaber - he's a little contradictory and mysterious, and his part in yesterDay's voting doesn't look too good. Then again, his tone is honest, if I'm any judge. Keeping an eye on him too.


Probably didn't get presents this year

Galadriel - flimsy reasonings and weird phrasings, plus she's way too self-conscious. Definitely makes my alarm bells ring.

Coppermirror - I really didn't like that pre-written post (both as an idea and the content). Otherwise, not so bad. Just seems to be off a lot, I wonder if it's confusion or wolvishness.


edit: xed with Zil

Only a brief comment for now
 

Aha! Yes, that actually makes sense. Thanks, Gal. I hadn't thought about it in that context. *headdesks*

So, am I right in my calculations that the DL is supposed to come in something like 6, 7 hours? Does not really make me that happy since very many people haven't still showed up toDay at all, even though of course it is understandable and I am not the one who should complain, given that I also haven't been around. Still, one or two posts from the more obscure people like sally, or even Shasta who showed up basically only to excuse himself (though he promised more thoughts later, so I hope I'll still be around to read them, though I am planning to go to sleep in a couple of hours at most). Well, it is not such a tragedy, given the Ranger-save, technically, we can take this "extended Christmas Day" in some way as an extra-Day, with a lynch traded for a kill.

I am still pretty much wary of G55, who just keeps having the air of something not quite right there, and in some of her latter posts she seemed "agreeable", as if it was intentional way of trying to look like "Mrs. Agreeable". I was hoping for more from Steve, and I still hope he will show up. The same goes for Zil, who is really not very active, though it seems due to being busy. I must say I am pretty much in dark about McCab and actually haven't been thinking about him very much, because basically the only concrete thing about him is his vote for sally, which could've been an "easy vote", but that's about it, and I wouldn't necessarily put it past McCab to vote in such a way also as innocent.

Yes, the "appearance" part is definitely there. And that's exactly why I would not expect an innocent to really give it that much thought. Simply put, I think it's rather a Wolf-thing to make show of one's posts and so on, an innocent would most likely edit it and not think about it.

Though of course taking into account also what Cop had said about her earlier gaming style, and also the explanation
It would be a plausible one. Though again it comes back to the question if an innocent would really bother himself with such things. I will have to think about it still.

As for Cop "taking long time to say obvious things", whereas I can see it being a "crime" in the eyes of some (and in a way in mine too, of course it's better to be clear and brief, but..)... it, exactly, isn't a crime by itself. So that wouldn't bother me. In such case, what is important is the content, whether it's long or short.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and sally

I am in serious need of dinner and a few other things, but I'll be back before too long and will provide a list of suspicions and all that lovely stuff.

EDIT: x'd with Legate

Well, you don't change your mind either, if you think about it. Either way, it was referring to the reason behind the vote: whatever you want to think it is, mind or gut, it has not changed.

Wait, what? What did I miss? How's it suspicious? It's just a bit muddled. :confused:

Edit: xed with Legate and sally x2

Actually, you can, if you think something over. Meanwhile, gut feelings seem to change by themselves. Or that's how I see it. However, it really isn't the only suspicious thing ou've said these past two Days.

Might be a language thing, but I think noting that a post looks like you can "jump" on it sounds pretty opportunistic and fishy. As if you were just looking for something you could grasp at.

Legate, the deadline is in a little less than 5 hours. See the Day1 beginning post time stamp for the deadline, for example. :)

Lommy's suspicion list looks quite a bit like one I would do at this time. Since I already was leaning toward her having an innocent air, that's helpful.

I would put Morsul in the Yellow category though, since I sometimes get the feeling he's trying to pull something.

x/d with Lommy x 2

I'm probably the easiest buddying-up victim in ww history, but Zil agreeing with me and saying I seem innocentish made me feel better about him too. ;)

Anyway

++Galadriel55

Easily the most suspicious person at the moment (which probably should be alarming. Where's the other wolf? And the cobbler?) If you need my reasons, see what I posted earlier toDay.

Now I'm off to bed. Happy remains of Boxing Day (or St. Stephen's, as you would say here) everyone and good night!

I think you're really overreaching here. To me it sounds muddled. Not more. If you look at it as a Freudian slip in the literal sense, that would suggest a wolf who all the time thinks of jumping on posts - which is actually not the best tactic for wolves to take as you usually susoect people based on those things. Can't see why jumping on posts would be plaguing a wolf's mind out of all the possibilities. And it's a very odd slip to make. I don't see your reason as a possibility. Moreover, the meaning of that sentence has already been clarified to the point that you would know what Morsul meant.

I don't like how you choose to press this issue. It is just like you did on Day1 - cast a shade of suspicion on someone and add that you don't truly believe in it, as though to distance yourself from it. I don't like it.

Give me an example of obligatory IC that's not self-conscious.



Now that people are starting to post I'm having trouble keeping up! :p Yay! Posts! :D

EDIT: xed since Lommy at 180

Where indeed. :rolleyes:

Okay, I did a little reread, and I should vote soon - so here a short list...

Sally - I can't honestly make a good judgement of her based on the little I have
Shasta - ditto
G55 - what I said about some "fabricated" feelings from some of her posts, with some having also the "Mrs. Agreeable" feel (although her short exchange with Zil wasn't that "agreeable", so maybe that's not really true anymore, however the fabricated tone remains)
Coppermirror - it's mostly the issue of the "poor Boro and [name]" post for me, though I can see the possibility of an innocent posting that as well, plus now, re-reading her posts a bit, I can see what Nerwen meant by the "little content", there is indeed much more of it than I thought, lot of what Cop says was really just recount of events of yesterDay with not making too many conclusions out of it. More to the point (still speaking of the pre-made post), I am not 100% happy about the easy throwing herself in with the list of other voted-for people (G55 and Zil) and the known innocent Boro. Could be a sort of "self-victimization" (while putting the name of a fellow innocent there), and reminded me of G55's insistance that "it looked like Cop-bandwagon could appear" yesterDay, and made me wonder if there might be a connection between those ideas.
Steve - I would just hope to see him around more. On re-read, I don't seem to recall what seemed so strange to me about his posting earlier. Actually, his posts have been toDay largely only short things, some lists etc. with not much content altogether. Some people said his vote yesterDay could have been a Wolf jumping on a bandwagon, though again, he could have jumped on either of the existing ones by the time he voted, unless he didn't care and/or there was a Wolf being voted for (though since there are only two Wolves, they would not have been both if Steve was one as well). All in all, needs more input, that's about it. But watching.
Morsul - despite his "hasty" vote (which he evidently thought belonged there), I still think he's being an innocent Morsul.
Nerwen - she is actually also one of the players who are not really as vocal or active as I might have expected her to be. But it is certain she brings out some good points in a Nerwen-esque fashion (though only a few). Basically it comes down to my wish that people would post a bit more than just "single-thought posts"...
Zil - ditto, as for toDay, there wasn't really that much. His little exchange with Galadriel was sort of interesting, but not really enough for making any conclusions.
McCaber - what I said, pretty much under my radar (or reindeer, to keep "themed") for the moment
Lommy - her thought processes seem similar to mine ;) Now I wonder if I should be worried, but I can't imagine her mentioning that being e.g. a trick aimed only at me to lull me into trusting her or something similarly unlikely. So only in case you found my dead body toMorrow, then perhaps she should be looked at. On a bit more serious note, I really don't see anything suspicious about her so far, she seems to try to make an effort and not really sounding in any way false or anything.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's vote and on

Back, reading, and trying to put together a current chart categorising suspicions. Looks as if worryingly little has happened since I was here last.

Sally - still digesting her posts. Leaning on the innocent side.

Shasta - I have hoped to see more of him. But he did promise to be around later.

Coppermirror - Just the same as before. Some mixed feelings.

Steve - see Shasta

Morsul - sounds innocent enough.

Nerwen - posts like her typical self mostly. Nothing alarming.

Zil - don't like our little peasant exchange, but then it could be comming from an innocent Zil too.

McCaber - that vote of his *sigh*. I have asked him a question regarding something he has said earlier, but he still hasn't come back to reply.

Lommy - don't like it how she paints suspicion on people while pretending not to hold the paintbrush.

Legate - has an interesting back-and-forth with Nerwen which makes me wonder about what could be the connection between the two, but no conclusions yet. May be just any typical back-and-forth. Also, that part discussing Lommy in his list - I'll have to reread that.


EDIT: xed with Cop

I have consdidered this and decided that it's unlikely that Lommy and Legate are in cahoots, so at least this interesting relationship is sorted out into the right cubby in my head.

Well, I have to vote, and there hasn't been really very much to go with. I think G55 is a good vote as any, and her last post does not really add to the impression I have of her.

++G55

Even though I am still curious about Cop as well, and definitely would like to look more at the more silent players too, Gal does not really look to me like an innocent Gal at all.

EDIT: x-ed with G55... this looks like even more grasping on straws, actually.

Good Night, village.

Back and reading.

I'm still reading through the earlier posts and drawing impressions from those, but seeing the current trend towards G55 votes, I'd really like to know what G55 has to say about that. Could you respond to the suspicions that you're not acting like an innocent G55, if you're around?

I have responded to the clear-cut suspicions (or some at any rate... have I missed any? I can address those if you bring them up), but what can I tell you if I don't sound innocent enough for you?

That's a very easy reason to get me lynched by. And not something I can prove someone wrong about (no, I do sound innocent! - doesn't work, does it?). And I have been lynched for something similar in the past.

Tell me, do I sound fake to you? Just out of curiosity. Because, you know, you don't have to base your decision off a trend, whether it be in the negative or positive way.

After getting off of work and doing some rereading, I have to rescind my accusations of G55. I misremembered what happened yesterDay and didn't do enough study on the holidays.

Legate, on the other hand, only gets worse while looking back. He jumped all over Boro yesterDay and really didn't do that good of a job explaining himself. I didn't want to believe it, but he looked like a wolf confident that he could get rid of a tough enemy early on a weak case.

I've just got to your name on the analysis list I'm doing and am just beginning to look through your posts now, so no, I haven't yet got a decent opinion on whether or not you're looking innocent. From what I've heard before and what you're saying now, you have been lynched while innocent for just sounding "wrong" a fair amount of times before.

You do seem a bit worked up, but that could be caused by getting two votes so far, and it also seems to me that a decent amount of people are cooler-headed as wolves than they are as innocents.

Ah, screw all my plots and schemes, they never work anyways.

I am an Ordo.

On Day One I thought I'd make myself look like the Seer, so as to distract the wolves the following Night. However, all my suspicions have been genuine and very true. I have indeed suspected Legate based on feel. And I do believe I was the target last Night for that very reason.

ToDay, based on that belief (and, objectively speaking, I was the most Seerish looking person around), I decided to play Cobbler and try to get a reaction from Legate.

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm saying?

Plus, there are instances where I sensed Legate hinting at me. Especially the "fake" posts...


So, my conclusions, based on the above. Legate is a wolf. Last Night he was thinking that I have dreamt him on Night1 (which I did not, but he didn't know that). ToDay, as a means of trying to explore the possibilities this gave me, I did my best to dissuade him of my Seerness and persuade him that I am the Cobbler, which was also kinda difficult because I wanted to get him lynched.

Who is his mate and who is the real cobbler? Dunno. Nerwen and Lommy are worth looking into, but Lommy doesn't look like a potential mate, more like a cobbler. And Eonwe, Cabbie, and Zil are under a questionmark.


So, here's my proposition. Lynch Legate toDay. If he's not a wolf you can always burn me at the stake toMorrow. Deal?

++Legate



EDIT: xed since my last

Back and reading. I do have to say my initial impression of the G55-wagon is that of... convenience, almost, although I can hardly blame Legate for wanting more content from people. I'll go through and do a more detailed post momentarily.

Just a note: I see various people have mentioned my lack of posting. The fact is, a Sugar-Plum Fairy has a *lot* to do at Christmas– sometimes not even murders can get in the way of that.

And how is G55 supposed to answer that? "Yes, I am so!"?:rolleyes: Really, that looks like a very calculating post, and does not make me think better of you, Cop.

But since you ask– I think what they are mainly talking about is– well the same thing I noted about you, actually– a general air of self-consciousness, as though she's been posting more with a view to "looking good" than anything else.

That said, I'm rather concerned the suspicion around her may be partly built on McCaber's statement about her having been "the one who rolled with that accusation [i.e. Boro's being a wolf] and made it stick"– which doesn't seem to be what happened at all.

EDIT:X'd since Cop at #192.

Don't trust:
Legate
Dun

Shifty:
Cop
McCaber

Unconcerned at present:
Lommie
Gal
Morsul
Nerwen

Will not vote toDay:
Shasta
Steve


The top two categories are open for business.


EDIT: x'd since the last McCaber

Well, I don't know. A lot of it seems to have been based on feel. No one really mentioned Cabbie's early post as a part of the basis of their suspicion of me.

Don't know about Zil, but I won't mind a Legate lynch at all.