Nerwen my love! Nice to see you around, we begin to be quite many here... How about you, who do you think is the last wolf and who is not?

Here is a thought - let's lynch Gil. None of us can fully decide whether each other is actually suspicious - perhaps that is because none of us is. I know I just said that if Gil is the wolf then leave him to it but maybe that's stupid. If he is the wolf we're just going to keep killing each other off for no reason for another couple of Days.

Someone who is good at numbers - could we get away with potentially wasting a Day lynching Gil or is it too late for that now?

And what if she does? She can do nothing horrible, at most turn it to a single lynch, which is exactly the same thing as if we chose to make a single lynch in the first place. I can't see any profit for the wolf to vote anyone else except the planned target because she has no remaining fellows to protect and she probably doesn't car which ordo dies.

But we can think about that when we've chosen our reps. Personally, I feel like voting Kath or Greenie, since I trust them the most, but I'm far from sure... And I doubt I have time to reread more before I make my rep vote... *add a smiley that is something between :eek: and :rolleyes: here*

edit: xed with Kath

Hmmm... There's now 5+Gil. If we lynch him and he's innocent, we have 4 of us toMorrow and it's the final Day - and the wolf can't win by hogging her vote! Hey, great. :D I say let's do that.

Hmm, been having a rethink about that double lynch anyway actually Lommy.

Say Greenie and I did become Reps and lynched, for example, you and Brinn. If neither of you turn out to be wolves then me, Greenie, Nerwen and Gil are left. One person will die toNight. Let's say that's Greenie. That leaves me, Nerwen and Gil. Based on the idea that I'm an innocent one of those two is a wolf. If it's Nerwen she's presumably going to either not vote or vote Gil. If I then either don't vote or vote Gil and he doesn't vote at all ... what happens? Do we just have no lynch? But this is why I'm thinking lynch Gil toDay because then you're not going to end up in that situation.

That last bit is really a question for the mods I think and I think the answer might help us a bit with deciding what to do.

In the event that three villagers remain and no Representative is chosen, no lynch vote can be made.

Once Night falls following the lack of lynching, the final wolf would kill a villager, making the numbers even, and the wolf would win.

I'll be voting for a rep soon (I'm off to bed soon, hooray!) and don't yet know between Kath and Lommy. Others? Who would you like to see as reps? I'd like to know, in order to ensure that we get two reps since only one rep would be scary.

Well, if you ask my straightforward opinion, I think the reps should be me and Kath. Me, because I know I'm innocent and Kath because she's the one I'm most comfortable with - after that Gil idea I trust her more than I trust Greenie, whom I trust the second most.

Thanks Lommy - except that your opinion really doesn't help me at all since you and Kath are the ones I'm considering. I'd need the opinions of Nerwen and Brinn in order to decide - wait - Nerwen did say she'd prefer Lommy over Kath. On the other hand, Lommy seems like voting Kath... Hmmm.

Okay, now I'll leave the computer to Lommy and vote

++ Kath for rep

Because I'm playing it safe now, unless Lommy is a very unreasonable creature and votes someone else than Kath. Good night and see you tomorrow. :)

I'm 99% probably going to vote Kath but I'm just thinking... is there really no one around?

I don't feel like going yet (although I should, I have an early morning and it's soon half past 11 here) and I'd hate to go after this little discussion... :(

Hey, everybody, what do you think of lynching Gil, btw?

And if we choose to lynch him, we should definitely not laze around toDay because we're really all so (seemingly) clueless...

Well, then–

++Lommy for rep.


EDIT: added "for rep".

Sorry, but I do have to go again. I'll be back in a few hours.

Re: the Gil plan– looks okay to me now, but I'm very tired right now.

Okay, I hope to see more of your thoughts when I return here tomorrow (RL) then... :)

I wonder what to make of Nerwen's toying with the idea of being a wolf... like that fake confession and saying "on the other paw" etc.

I don't like her continuous trust in me. Because, I think she knows it's easy to make me less wary by showing trust in me and that's exactly what she's been doing for a couple of Days now.

I'm debating whether her and morm's fight looks staged.

I've actually got a funny feeling that the wolf is Nerwen, after all. Really, she's just way too sneaky. *hats off*

And I'm saying this now already because I'm afraid I'll forget. Everybody, remember to vote against a filibuster toMorrow. That way the wolf shouldn't be able to screw it up (and it's all for us to screw up ;)).

For my further information, my reread is currently on page 21.

Right then, to make it two Reps I guess I need to vote:

++LOMMY for Rep

I have to say that I won't be back until about 6pm my time tomorrow due to school activities but once back I will be around pretty much continuously.

If anyone has opinions on the lynch Gil or double lynch ideas or has any other theories/suggestions please put them forward. It's prompting conversation which is fantastic.

I think lynching Gil is the smartest thing we can do right now. I don't think he's the wolf, but since I don't think there's any chance he'll be eliminated at Night, this is the only way to know for sure. And like Lommy said, by lynching Gil we will have all players participating so that there should definitely be a rep toMorrow. This will give us an extra Day to figure things out, which is something we definitely need.

Hmm...so Kath is already a rep. If we all agree to lynch Gil, then we don't need any more than one rep, do we? I mean, I think it's better to have less reps. Because the fewer players doing the actual lynching, the less likely it'll be that a wolf is involved to screw things up.

EDIT: X-ed with Kath. Never mind then.

I've never been fond of double lynches (unless a known wolf is involved) because it's too risky, especially at this late stage. If our two lynchees turn out innocent, then the wolf wins the game.

I almost took back what I said about the number of reps, thinking that if we agreed on lynching Gil, one of the reps would definitely vote for him and if the other was the wolf and didn't vote him making a double lynch instead, we'd find her out and be able to lynch her with three left toMorrow. But then I remembered that we have to vote for reps first and with only three left, no rep would be voted in. So I don't take back what I said after all.

Please correct me if I'm at all wrong. I'm thinking in numbers and it's confusing me.

Perhaps I should make a third vote for someone in order to eliminate the possibility of a double lynch. But if one of our reps is the wolf, what if I end up giving the wolf more voting power? Then we're still headed for trouble.

This is all giving me a headache. I need to go away for a little while and think.

Meh, it looks like I'll be talking to myself for the rest of tonight. A pity, as I'd like someone to actually converse with..

I've been doing some research...I'll be posting more shortly.

I need to pause from my research because it's almost deadline and I haven't made a decision yet.

If I give one of the reps a third vote, it'd be for Lommy. Actually both reps don't look very suspicious, but taking an even closer look I feel most confident of Lommy's innocence.

Let's see...if I were to vote Lommy, here's what could happen:

1) no double lynch
2) she votes for Gil, which is something most people seem to agree on, and he gets lynched
3) she votes for someone else for some reason. If she's a wolf, the village is doomed. If she's innocent, there's a possibility she voted for the wolf, but we can't know for sure.

If I vote for someone else entirely and keep two equal reps:

1) possible double lynch
2) both reps agree to vote for Gil and he gets lynched
3) both reps agree to vote for someone else and they get lynched
4) they decide to take the risk and go for a double lynch
5) if one of them is a wolf and Gil is agreed to be killed, there's a good chance the wolf will turn it into a double lynch last minute dooming the village. In order to do this, the wolf rep would have to vote last.

Grr...I'm out of time. Are we actually even planning to lynch Gil? A lot of this is based on the idea that we are, but I don't know if anything has been officially agreed upon.

++Lommy for rep

I don't understand why everyone feels so much better about two reps...this seems more logical and less risky to me.

Gah, my internet flaked out on me for a good few minutes and now I'm late so I don't even know if my vote counts at all. :(

It does not.

Kath
 

This is indeed an interesting exchange between Noggie and Kath. If it's wolvish, it's a quite playful exchange...but I don't know how likely it is. If they are both wolves, it'd certainly be rather bold.

I still don't like her explanation for popping in to vote Day 4, then leaving again without further thought. Simply because it's so easy for a wolf to hide in that manner.

I agree it's a good point she brings up that if Gil was the wolf, how likely would he actually kill someone at Night? If he is the wolf, it's certainly a frustrating and unfair strategy...only playing at Night.

I don't understand if this was a joke or a serious comment. But if it's the latter, I don't understand why this alone is enough to make me suspicious. Like it or not, I'm not the first innocent to make quote posts...and I did talk about doing it for the past Day so there shouldn't have been any surprise there.

For about two Days, Kath was quite persistent on Gwath. But would a wolf be so bold and forceful? I think it's more likely the wolf would've just gone along with the flow on suspicions.

This comment seems pretty innocentish. I don't think a wolf would bring up the idea of lynching Gil...it's more strategic to keep him around until the end.

Again, I don't understand what the urgent need was for two reps. But she wasn't the only one who thought this, so I guess it's nothing particularly strange.

Dang. Sorry guys, I wasn't expecting my internet to go all haywire on me. :(

Let's just hope neither of our reps are wolves.

Lommy
 

I mentioned before I don't think a wolf would bring this up about her fellow, and I stick by it.

How likely would a wolf suspect all of her fellows this early in the game? Especially since none of them were heavily suspected at the time.

I doubt a wolf would be so obvious with a comment like this...and after she had already suspected them earlier in the game.

Her vote for Ka does make me think her more innocentish.

I still don't like this statement and disagree with her "factual" evidence. But she did back away from it some, which makes me feel a bit better.

Greenie
 

This seems like a very careful, well-thought out statement about Greenie. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Hmm...there seemed to be a lot of suspicion of Nogrod on this Day, yet no one voted to lynch him. It's possible one of the Noggie suspectors was a fellow wolf. <-------------- I said this the first time I put up the quotes and I still agree with this possibility. Greenie could be a likely candidate because of the way she seems to carefully go about her suspicions of Nogrod. There's many more quotes from her about him that Day, but I'm just pointing a couple out.

Could be a safe way to go about suspecting him.

This bothers me. At this late stage, you just can't go by intuition. There needs to be an actual argument supporting their innocence.

What irks me about this comment is not the fact that she suspects me, but because she figures I must be guilty because everyone else "feels" innocent.

This post makes me feel a little better. And I'll be more satisfied if she actually does an analysis of me.

Nerwen
 

Okay, about this exchange. morm goes so vehemently after Nerwen. At a time where she was at risk of getting lynched, I had my doubts that he would go after a fellow wolf like that. But now I'm beginning to think that anything is possible. For one thing, I think morm's suspicions of her began before she was heavily suspected. When others began to pickup suspicion too, he couldn't just drop it...or he'd look suspicious. Also, I think it's entirely possible that morm would be so bold. He seems like the type of wolf who would be willing to sacrifice a mate in order to look innocent.

When Noggie also jumps on Nerwen the following Day, I sort of question her possible guilt...but then again, it's not entirely impossible for two wolves to suspect there packmate. Also, he doesn't pursue his suspicions of her all that much, so it could not necessarily mean anything.

I find that last sentence a bit weird, I don't know why.

Wolf or not, I think she was genuinely frustrated at the idea that she would bluff in such a manner. But she does bring up a good point that a wolf could've just as easily made an error about the rules as an innocent would.

I don't like the fact that she even considers a double lynch, especially after she criticised Sally for wanting to do a triple lynch. But then, she doesn't go through with it, so I don't know if it actually means anything.

Okay, I know this was supposed to be a joke...but what was the point in it?

She keeps bringing up the possibility of Gil's guilt, which I find rather odd since I doubt he'd play in such an unfair manner. But then again, maybe I'm the one who's wrong... :rolleyes:

The Votes
 

Day 1 Rep Votes:

Unknowns-
Greenie: Brinn (2)
Lommy: Ilya
Kath: Lommy
Brinn: Aganzir
Nerwen: didn't vote

Wolves-
Ka: Boromir
morm: Nogrod
Nogrod: Ilya (2)

Day 1 Lynch Votes:

Unknowns-
Brinn: Legate (2)

Wolves-
Nogrod: Gwath

Day 2 Rep Votes:

Unknowns-
Lommy: Nerwen
Nerwen: Lommy
Greenie: morm
Kath: Boromir (2)
Brinn: Kath

Wolves-
morm: Aganzir
Ka: Lommy
Nogrod: Boromir (3)

Day 2 Lynch Votes:

Unknowns-
Kath: Eonwe
Lommy: Eonwe (2)
Nerwen: Eonwe (3)

Wolves-
morm: Nerwen

Day 3 Rep Votes:

Unknowns-
Greenie: morm
Lommy: Shasta
Kath: Nogrod
Brinn: Shasta (2)
Nerwen: Kath (2)

Wolves-
morm: Lommy
Nogrod: Kath
Ka: Greenie

Day 3 Lynch Votes:

Unknowns-
Greenie: the phantom
Kath: Sally
Lommy: Ka

Wolves-
Nogrod: the phantom
morm: Boromir

(the following Day 4 is not very relevant since there were two known wolves and these votes will probably tell us nothing)

Day 4 Rep Votes:

Nerwen: Sally
Kath: Nerwen
Lommy: phantom
Greenie: phantom
Brinn: Boromir

Day 4 Lynch Votes:

Nerwen: morm

Day 5 Rep Votes:

Lommy: Nerwen
Greenie: Kath
Kath: Lommy
Nerwen: Lommy (2)
Brinn: Nerwen (2)

Day 5 Lynch Votes:

Greenie: Sally
Kath: Gwath
Lommy: Sally (2)
Nerwen: Sally (3)

Day 6 Rep Votes:

Greenie: Lommy
Lommy: Kath
Kath: Lommy (2)
Nerwen: Rune
Brinn: Kath (2)

Day 6 Lynch Votes:

Lommy: Gwath
Kath: Gwath (3)

Day 7 Rep Votes:

Greenie: Rune
Lommy: Rune (2)
Brinn: Greenie
Nerwen: Lommy
Kath: didn't vote

Day 7 Lynch Votes:

Greenie: Ilya

Day 8 Rep Votes:

Greenie: Kath
Nerwen: Lommy
Lommy: Kath
Kath: Lommy

-------------------------------------

Known Wolf-on-Wolf rep votes:
morm on Nogrod

Known Wolf-on-Wolf lynch votes:
none

Possible Wolf-on-Wolf rep votes:
Greenie on morm (twice)
Ka on Lommy
Kath on Nogrod
morm on Lommy
Nogrod on Kath
Ka on Greenie

Possible Wolf-on-Wolf lynch votes:
morm on Nerwen

Thoughts:
The question is, how likely is a wolf to vote a fellow as a rep. It happened before, so it's certainly possible. Though I doubt a wolf would be very obvious in their trust in someone. Both morm and Ka voted Lommy...I don't know if two wolves would so openly show such trust in a fellow wolf, which makes me think her more likely innocent. Greenie voted morm twice. It's still possible it was a wolf-on-wolf vote, but then again it'd be awful bold of her. As I stated before about morm's vote to lynch Nerwen, I think at this point it can't really say much to whether she's innocent or not.

In Conclusion:

The following is a suspicion list in order starting from most to least suspicious (I'm not gonna even bother including Gil anymore...with no substance to even analyse him with, I can't see the point).

1) Nerwen
2) Greenie
3) Kath
4) Lommy

Wow, that was a lot of flood posting. Though I don't think it would feel like so much if I weren't the only one around. And honestly, I don't see anything wrong with flood posting since we need as much substance as we can get. So I hope to see the same from the rest of you.

That's all from me for tonight. I don't know how much you'll hear from me for the first half of tomorrow since I have class and an audio project to work on. But I'll probably pop in here and there; just don't expect a lot of substance from me. That's why I got it all done toNight when I actually had time.

Wow, Brinn, and thank you. :) Now we surely have something to think and talk about.

Furthermore, Brinn's thoughts on the lynch make me feel she's innocent. She's also putting quite a lot of effort to the game, which could signify innocence, but on the other hand, it could be a wolf putting effort to looking innocent, so we can't use that as evidence.

Brinn's points made me think that Greenie needs to be watched more closely.

Now I'm off to check what else has happened in the BD while I've been away, but then I'll continue my reread and hopefully have some ideas when I come back.

I was just thinking... could this be why Agan died?
Too dangerous to be left alive? Maybe the wolves even thought she was a seer who was hiding out in the open since she simply wrote "guilty" (not "suispicious" or anything like that) and put those two names there? It could be a smart seer tactic after succesfully having dreamt of two wolves by Day2...

And hey:
Having an honest wolf here, actually? It would fit quite nicely.

Considering Greenie... she has a couple of times said she prefers dialogue to analysing and has acted to follow this preference... I think it slightly points at her innocence because for a wolf, hiding behind analyses is much easier than reacting to stuff spontaneously.

And as for wolf-on-wolf cases... Brinn speculates that fellow wolves wouldn't have necessarily attacked Nerwen so forcefully. But they actually could have. For general profit, or possibly because wolf-Nerwen would be busy with RL (and see, she has been). Maybe she talked to her fellows and they deviced a plan of possibly lynching her to look good? Just a scenario.

I know this is pretty far.-fetched, but would he wonder out loud the absence of two of his mates? I think a wolf would not actually feel like doing that...

Too bold to be wolf-on-wolf?

If she's a wolf, she's pretty quick to react and does the obvious smart thing.

I think Greenie looks innocent because of her slight frustration of Boro's seer reveal because she had a case against Noggie (which she explains when asked). It looks all very genuine.

I'll have a pause now. For my further information, my reread is currently on page 39.

I disagree - Gil is something like a known innocent (or then a known bastard), so how would it profit a wolf to have him around? Wouldn't a wolf be keen on getting rid of him, as he is a number on the village's side and besides if the village spends a Day in lynching Gil the wolf gains one additional Day of not being in danger of getting lynched and also the certainty of one more Night.

As you might have guessed from that, I don't think we should lynch Gil. I don't think anyone seriously considers the possibility of him being our last wolf, so why waste one of our last Days to lynch someone like him when we could actually try and get the wolf caught? Deciding to lynch Gil gives the wolf a free pass through a very critical Day, and I think that is a bit foolish, really. Why not at least try? If we lynch Gil, we have (most probably) lost one innocent. If we lynch someone else, we lose either an innocent or the wolf. From that angle, it is much more reasonable to do a real lynch, so to say. Besides, Gil's death doesn't help us toMorrow, it gives us nothing more to go on with.


EDIT: x-ed with Lommie

Finishing my reread as I have nothing else to do
 

We all know Nerwen's smart but she continuously pays a little too much attention to advanced-level kill plotting to look convincingly innocent.

And that's it. I'm finished with my reread and I'm rather confident that our last wolf is Nerwen, who has fooled me very beautifully almost all the time and who has done some brilliant work as have her fellows. Cheers! :D


edit: xed with Greenie

Haven't you read me &Kath's posts toDay?

If Gil is one of the people alive toMorrow, the wolf can refrain from voting for a rep and win by that. But if all the people alive are players who will vote for reps, she can't win by that.

So, technically it's just a question of whether we want to have our decisive Day toDay or toMorrow, but it makes more sense to have it toMorrow so that we have more time to argue and analyse.

Does this make sense?

And also a little tidbit: if we only have it toMorrow, there's a bigger chance to get the wolf as there's one less option as the wolf will have killed someone off by then.

About Brinn's points on Greenie. They're pretty thin, really. I do, however, have a vague "bad feeling" about her... however, that may just be because I think she's the person most capable of playing it cool.

I've been thinking about Kath's "lynch Gil" proposal: It has its merits, but... how much chance is there that he's the wolf? Is it worth throwing away a lynch on him if no-one thinks he's guilty?

On the other hand, this is the last Day we can lynch anyone "just in case".

Thoughts?

EDIT: X'd since Lommy at #1834.

Nerwen, I'm not going to repeat everything I've said considering Gil-lynch (well I doubt you assumed that anyway). But really, for me, it looks like the wisest course of action by far. I don't understand why don't people get it.