Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Half an hour til deadline. Let's make it

Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

And just so that it's official:

++Nerwen

(edit: crossed with Aganzir's vote)

Gack! Should have been more active here.

Anyhow, it's getting close to the deadline, and I think I ought to vote. Regarding who seems suspicious, I'm going to go with something I noticed earlier in morm. Basically, he seems to be acting odd lately, posting a lot less than he has in the past (with one of them being a random accusation toss-out near the beginning). I agree that he seems suspicious. Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Valier and The Might have been described as two wolves that agreed to adopt different playing styles, and I would agree with Rikae's sentiment that their interaction early on appears "scripted" as she put it. However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

As for The Might's self-vote, that does not mean much to me. I remember a fellow from the old days of WW by the name of Nilpaurion Felagund who used to vote for himself all the time, Wolf or no.

My vote today is going to:

++mormegil

Now, since it seems unlikely that I'll be lynched today and have not made myself look suspicious enough to be lynched tomorrow, I can only assume that the wolves will eat me tonight. Therefore, after the Day is done, I'll make sure to set the dinner table for the guests and cover myself in butter.

This is getting pretty horrible. :D

I'll probably be voting for Nerwen as well. Like I said before, she is the least non-suspicious of the ones in vote and I dislike the idea of bringing new candidates in. Besides, now that I think on it, I must say that the phrase looks a bit like an attempt of distraction indeed.

Something about Lommy is still making me uneasy, though.. Should Nerwen be lynched and innocent, though, it would certainly make me put an additional questionmark on Lommy's innocence.

Well, better get on with it, then.

++ Nerwen

Votes this far:

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Wife -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 5, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Menel -> morm (Nerwen 5, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
LG -> Nerwen (Nerwen 6, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Left to vote (unless I am mistaken):

Thinlómien
Farael (not probable)
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

Please be careful that you don't cross-post with anyone. A cross-post can mean a double-lynch in these circumstances, so try to type quick. In case of Lommy and LG ( :) ) such a thing should not happen, but otherwise...

EDIT: okay, I'm saying something and not doing that myself :) x-ed with LG. I'm editing the post to reflect her vote.

Menel, I think you misunderstood. I stated that it seemed to me that she wanted to kill me because I suspect her on occasion and have been successful at getting her lynched in the past (for better or worse). You seem to have turned it around the other way...why?

Rather odd again Menel. I don't like this thought and think it horribly suspicious to say something like this.

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?

Let's make it a bit more certain.

++Nerwen

Now, I hope she really is a wolf. It's not nice for anyone if she isn't (expect for the wolves obv.) and it won't be definitely nice to me, judging by various comments heard toDay... :rolleyes:

edit: xed with morm

I'm not totally comfortable with my choices here.

While I can't deny that morm hasn't been posting normally...I'm not comfortable with voting against him.

I'm also not comfortable voting for Nerwen either. I'd really rather vote for Thinlómien...

But at this point in many respects one is about as good as the other...either one could be a wolf...

Course, they might both be innocent too... :(

Still...

++ Nerwen

This seems horribly apologetic. We vote as best we can and live with the consequences. I never like this approach and it makes me more suspicious than I was before. I feel like you are saying..."well, here goes my vote, when it turns out that your innocent you will all know that I felt really bad for it, so don't come looking my way because I'm innocent"

A very quickly formed list mainly to avoid being killied during the night for not suspecting clearly ( :rolleyes: )

Leaning Good:
Thinlómien
Meneltarmacil
Macalaure
The Might
Mormegil

Leaning Neutral (unknown):
Aganzir
Feanor of the Peredhil
Brinniel
Satansaloser2005
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan
Kath
Nerwen

Leaning Evil:
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Little Green
Valier
Rikae

Well, yes, I'm fully aware that I have to live with the consequences of the lynch regardless of are they good or bad. Besides, I am innocent and I feel bad for myself if Nerwen is proven innocent... :p

I'm probably the most skilled person judging Lommy (and Nogrod, and Aganzir) wrong, but that sounds as what I said and it was from an Innocent's mouth.

Tomorrow will bring much much more light, this was a good Day to be looked at from tomorrow.

EDIT: Obviously - Xd with Lommy.

Since I won't be here the next Day, if Nerwen is innocent, I urge somebody to take a very close look at Thinlómien. I just have a bad feeling about her.

I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.

I've had that happen to me before and it was a wolf trying to figure out how to better cover itself.

But the tone suggests that you know she will be shown to be innocent. Which, if it proves true, reflects poorly for you.

*salutes* Aye Aye Captain. I'm on it as I feel the same way too.

The sun has set and Nerwen will be no more.

Please wait a moment...

Day1
 

What does a shocked and stupefied hobbit do to get over the anguish?

Well you guessed it right.

They all crowded into the Green Dragon to get some advice with a pint.

The older members of the village: the old Lommy Baggins, Menel "Lupo" Furryface (who did fall asleep only to wake up a minute before the sunset), Morm Harrybelly and gammer Fea-Belladonna Briarpatch, Farael Twofoot (who never woke up after getting a nap after the first pint), Val Furryfoot, Kath Woodyend and the gaffer Kuru Shrewthwacker sat on the big table in the middle of the inn.

The adults: both Sackville-Bagginses, Agan and Legate, Volo "Justy" Proudfoot, Mac Sandyman, Brinn Burrows and Rikae Took claimed the second largest one.

The youngsters: Might of Greenholm, Sally Shortbrush, Lilla Greenhand, Nerwen Hornblower and Shasta of the River were forced to be content with the smallest one right beside the doorway.

One thing was clear on everyone’s mind: no hobbit had ever killed another hobbit in the Shire. But now it seemed that the age-old tradition was in danger of being broken. The faces were stern when the discussion opened but soon the hobbits fell back to their normal manner of speaking with jokes shared and puns thrown over and within the tables. And there was ale a-plenty and loads of food as well. After all if they had prepared for a feast so why to leave the food to rot even if there wasn't the jubilant mood they had been expecting?

The old feuds between the Harrybellies and Furryfoots seemed to ignite and in the end of the day the usual “she’s a Baggins so she can’t be up to any good” –argument was brought to the table as well.

At one point the young Greenholm already stood up from his table and promised to kill himself if the older people didn’t leave him alone. But as no one seemed to take the dramatics seriously enough he quietly settled back to his seat.

After getting a mug or two too much of ale Legate Sackville-Baggins rose from his seat and started throwing suspicions to the table of the elders: “I’m displeased with you Harrybelly; and your arguments old Shrewthwacker are not valid and I don’t even like your behaviour in the first place; and Miss. Briarpatch, your wits are sleepy”. After some cooling down it was decided that no major damage was done – even if he was a Sackville-Baggins.

It soon became obvious that also some others than the loudmouthed Legate Sackville-Baggins were having second thoughts over the old Morm Harrybelly. But even more clouds started emerging over the young Nerwen Hornblower.

She had actively taken part in the discussions at the early hours but went paler and paler - and fell quieter and quieter - as the discussion got on.

"I’d say it’s you", said Rikae Took and Brinn Burrows agreed. The Sackville-Bagginses were ready to follow the line. Mac Sandyman looked at the others around him in the adult’s table and agreed as well. The adult’s table had spoken – only Volo "Justy" Proudfoot looked like disagreeing.

Some youngsters as well as oldies seemed to be happy with the decision.

“So what shall we do then?” asked Kuru Shrewthwacker.
“Killing feels nasty” added Lommy Baggins.

“I’ll spare you the trouble” the young Hornblower said and ran out from the Inn.

The others followed after her but it was too late. Nerwen had thrown herself into the Water. Her body floated downriver. It was an unchanged body of a hobbit.

The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1
Nerwen (ordo) - Nerwen Hornblower - jumped to the river not to force anyone to kill another hobbit on Day1

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Valier - Vallen FurryFoot
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker

Night2 has landed.

The werewolves do your thing. The Seer and The Ranger give me your picks.

Night2
 

The werewolves gathered around the mallorn as the Night before.

“Before we go on... or okay, we can walk as we talk... I’d like to get this piece out from my mind”, started the Flame. “I mean one thing still baffles me. I really felt good last Night playing football with that miserable hobbit – and you must admit it was a beauty for a goal. But does it mean I’m not bad then because I was doing something that felt good?”

“No, no, no... Let’s make one thing clear. We have our own right and our own good. And we pursue them as well as these goodies pursue theirs. Our good just is evil while theirs is good”, the Shard explained somewhat impatiently and kicked the door of a hobbithole in.

“But if you take that position you have to admit that in the end we are striving at exactly the same thing as the goodies... the final good I mean?”, put in the Breath who was following the Shard inside at arm’s lengtht. Together they dragged the struggling Furryfoot out from under the cupboard she had tried to hide and threw him violently on to the table for the Drop and the Flame to catch.

“Okay, now hold this creature for me if you please. It’s hard to cut not hitting a vein when the thing you’re supposed to cut kicks and bites.” The Drop demanded looking at his friends resentfully. “And coming back to the topic... isn’t the good of the goodies then the good itself and thus the primary good? That would mean that our good is just a corrupted mirror-image or at least derivative of or subservient to the good itself?”, he continued while cutting the hobbit's skin carefully first from the breast and stomach and then continuing down the inner sides of her legs.

“That’s a hard nut to crack indeed”, the Flame frowned and started peeling Vallen’s skin off from the cut the Drop had made. This far she had been wailing and screaming but now she seemed to fall in somekind of trance of pain and just shook quietly letting out an occasional wail every now and then.

“Alright. So you’re on for an argument, eh?”, asked the Shard who had been building a fire at the other end of the livingroom but now stood up and turned around. “Look at it this way then. If we just make a distinction between the the good and bad as such and the good and bad as we feel them? Wouldn’t that solve the problem for you?”

“Ahh, that’s a clever move.” The Breath said raising his head to look at the Shard for a second. He had been helping the Flame with the groins but halted the operation to answer. “But it still doesn’t seem to cancel the fact that we should be striving for bad and still we pursue that which we feel good about”, the Breath looked content with his answer and went back finishing the skinning.

“My brain hurts...”, the Drop exclaimed with a low voice bringing the skewer to the table.

“Oh, that’s too bad! Or is it good for you?”, grinned the Flame as he took the skewer from the Drop and started turning the now completely skinned hobbit around.

“Shut up or I’ll entertain myself with slowly grilling you instead of this hobbit!”, the Drop challenged the Flame now clearly irritated, grasping the skewer from the other end and looking at the Flame to the eyes dead seriously. “I don’t like the way you make jokes over grave matters.”

“Okay, c’mon guys. No need to get upset because of a civilised conversation.” The Breath came between the two and tried to cool his mates. “Now let’s ask the hobbit. She seems to be still alive and kickin’”, with that he flashed his most hearty grin.

“So what do you say? Is this good or bad?” the Drop asked bending towards the half-dead hobbit’s face.

Valier Furryfoot was trembling from cold, pain and agony but managed to mutter an answer. “B-bb-ad, tt-terr-ibly b-bad, p-pleee-ase be ki-iind an-dd le-mme g-go!”

“You see? We’re doing the right thing!”, the Shard yelled from the other part of the room triumphantly.

“Oh my... the right thing then... here we go again”, the Breath frowned and looked at his two friends standing around the silently squeaking and shivering skinned hobbit.

“No, no. Nonsense. She said this is bad and we are baddies so lets get on with it! No more nuts, more action, okay?”, the Flame finally bursted and ran the skewer through the hobbit who screamed the last time in her life as she lost her consciousness from pain.

“Maybe you’re right”, said the Drop and hoisted the skinned hobbitskewer with the help of the Breath. “But I’m not sure the matter is settled as yet”.

“Right? D’uh!”, the Breath shook his head. “The fire’s ready yet?”


~*~

The hobbits gathered around the mallorn in the morning and as they feared someone was missing.

Valier "Vallen" Furryfoot was indeed missing. They ran to her house fearing the worse but no fear they had entertained quite matched the truth. There she presumably was, skinned, grilled and chopped and laid to the table on portions with some fresh greens and ale.

And this was what they found from the table as well...

http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/c...ndvsShire3.jpg


The dead:
Nogrod (mod) - Noggie Boffin - beheaded and played soccer with on Night1
Nerwen (ordo) - Nerwen Hornblower - jumped to the river not to force anyone to kill another hobbit on Day1
Valier (ordo) - Vallen FurryFoot - skinned, grilled and served as a breakfast on Night2

The living:
Thinlómien - Lommy Baggins
Legate of Amon Lanc - Legate Sackville-Baggins
Aganzir - Agan Sackville-Baggins
Meneltarmacil - Lupo Furryface
Volo - Justy Proudfoot
Macalaure - Mac Sandyman
The Might - Might of Greenholm
Mormegil - Mormegil Harrybelly
Feanor of the Peredhil - Belladonna Briarpatch
Brinniel - Brinn Burrows
Satansaloser2005 - Sally Shortbrush
Farael – Farael Twofoot
A Little Green - Lilla Greenhand
Kath – Kath Woodyend
Rikae – Rikae Took
Shastanis Althreduin – Shasta of the River
Kuruharan -Kuru Shrewthwacker

Day2 begins!

Now that was quite disgusting...

The topmost question right now is why was Valier killed. The first possible reason that occured to me was this: (and I believe I'm probably not mistaken here) That could be interpreted as a seer hint, couldn't it?

Now, if the wolves thought Valier might be the seer, then she can't have said anything that would contradict the actual roles to a large extent, ie she couldn't, for example, have strongly supported a wolf or blamed an innocent heavily, could she? Of course that depends on the actual wording. I'm going to look through her posts and what she said about each villager.

Oh dear. That IS indeed brutal and senseless violence. I think Noggie's gone a little bit off the deep end.



Let us have a moment of silence for our friend Valier Furryfoot. Her wisdom has guided us, her presence has lifted our spirits, and her body has made quite tasty horsdeouvres. Uhhhh I mean....we'll miss her? :p

Lol, again a nice story Nogrod, makes me somehow think of the 3 trolls.

Anyway, about the first day, I think it was A Little Green that put it best, I simply wasn't in the mood of again being voted like in the last game only because I act a bit confused and maybe confusing.
No confusion means no fun I guess. And Legate was correct too, I did want to see if I would be lynched like Rikae in the last game.

Anyway, it really is hard for me to analyse how people act, as I have very little to compare this with, in some cases nothing at all.
I find Legate somewhat suspicious at the moment...as far as the others are concerned I have yet made a clear opinion...really difficult if you don't know the people.

Well, hopefully will make my mind today, after I read through some more posts.

Why I think Val was killed (based on her posts)
 

Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

and

So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

That was disgusting.

I, too, think it sounds probable that the wolves mistook Valier for the seer, but two other possible reasons struck me as well.

1) Valier & her hunches were considered too dangerous for someone.
2) At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones. There were others who were more than her for lynching the quiet, though, so I don't know.

The only people Valier mentioned were The Might and morm.

As to The Might, she only disagreed with his tactic about lynching the quiet, so that is hardly going to lead us anywhere.

Morm then... this is more complicated... Valier said she's getting a "weird vibe" from him, which sounds like a seerish comment.
On the other hand, here she reasons her opinion like any villager with no extra insight. Although, I think - and the wolves could have thought that way too - that a seer would have said this as well as an ordo, since unrevealed seers need to reason their votes as much as other people.
Here she both talks about feelings in a manner that could be interpreted as seerish and underlines she has no good reason to suspect morm, which could be seen as a way of trying to make her seem not like a seer who had dreamed of him. On the other hand, it looks like she was plainly talking about gut-feelings (which probably was true as she was an ordo...).

Basically, you can read those quotes in either way. If the wolves assumed Valier to be the seer (like I think they did) one can read her posts the way that she had probably dreamed of morm or the way that even if she had been the seer it would have been just a normal suspicion.

If I try to imagine her as the seer, it sounds more like she had dreamt of morm than that she hadn't, but on the other hand, why would she as the seer suspected morm-wolf that loudly? So her being killed as the seer doesn't necessarily point at morm being a wolf. I mean, the wolves might have killed her even if morm was an innocent. Certainly the wolves knew, though, that Valier's death would point at morm.

I think I'm slightly confused with my own logic and not sure that I make sense at all, but I think that the combination of that "I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends" -comment and morm's guilt would be a very good reason for the wolves to try to get rid of Valier and thus I suspect morm.

I mean, that comment of Valier's wasn't a foolproof seer hint. It didn't occur to me that she might be the seer and it seems it didn't occur to our ranger either. But it did occur to the wolves. Why? Because they're sharper and more avid to catch seer hint than I and the ranger? Maybe. Because one of them was supected by Valier so that it really looked like she was the seer? I think that would be a better and more waterproof explanation.

I'm far from confident of morm's guilt, but he has taken the place of my top suspect, thanks to Valier's death.

EDIT: xed with everybody

And, again, for my convenience:
 

Everybody that directly mentioned her. (I'm using a search utility, so if I miss any, forgive me?)

Oh, so brutal.

Well, Lommie, I'm not quite sure. Wouldn't that be a little too obvious?

True. But we shouldn't forget, either, what Valier wrote in her first post. That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

And, because Nerwen was innocent and because Lommy definitely is loud, I think I'll have to look through her posts again (that will be a lot of work, though, given how much she has posted... :D).

EDIT: x-ed with Fea

Lommy and the other wolves you make me laugh! What a cheap attempt at a frame job if I've ever seen one. Let's see...take the person who received the second most votes and kill the person who had nothing more than a hunch and set her up as the seer. Not quite so clever and hopefully futile. The more I read Lommy the more I'm convinced of her guilt.

Of course, those who know me well know that this is a bluff I would try to pull off so there is a problem for many people. My guess is that voting will come down to either Lommy or me. I trust the village to look at things objectively and decide correct...of course, something drastic could happen that changes the course of the day but I doubt it.

Fea, the problem is I feel it far more likely that the wolves didn't mention Valier much if at all. That is the general Modus Operandi of first night kills.

Thing is, I really don't think morm would kill Valier. It makes a lot more sense that the wolves are trying to frame him. I know he'd sacrifice himself for a cause (he's done it before), but it just seems so outright stupid for a morm-wolf to kill a villager in the night who seemed to have dreamt about him. Except that it's such a transparent set up that I can't help but think maybe the wolves aren't really trying to frame him, they're just trying to make it look like they are?

In any case, I'm leaning toward morm's innocence. I just don't think he'd have killed Val, especially if she'd dreamt of him. It's just too self-incriminating.

Oh couldn't she? In spite of the fact that it was Day 1? Really, Lommy, you know better than to say this. I suppose you're hoping that we will refrain from following day one suspicions now that two were proven innocent, or that this kill will look like an attempt to frame you, but yesterday you looked more furry to me with every post and this does not help.

Valier's dead and innocent, eh? Why not me? I could have left cooking instructions and everything...

Being mistaken for the Seer does sound like a good reason for a wolf-kill, and actually would suggest that morm is not really a wolf. I doubt a morm-wolf would vote for somebody that he was trying to lynch last night.

Or would he? He could be trying to double-bluff us.

Regarding his attack on my reasoning, he does seem to have a valid point about me. I did misunderstand his "Valier wants to kill me because I might lynch her" statement.

He follows it up by asking me
in response to a statement I made about how Valier was likely an innocent if morm was a wolf. One memorable ancestor of mine met his end by saying "X is probaby innocent since Y appears wolfish, but if Y turns out to be innocent upon lynching, X could be a wolf." That was perceived as an attempt to cover his wolfish tracks, and my family has had trouble avoiding the use of such statements, especially on Day 1.

Now morm seems to be asking me to make a similar statement regarding Valier. A smart move for a wolf, goading the innocent into making his family's classic slip-up and going to the gallows for it.

However, the last Night's activities do cast doubt on a morm-wolf scenario, so caution is necessary. Mostly, I just wanted to talk here so as not to be too silent. Talking often is always a good idea.

Well, while I do think there's a chance the wolves thought Valier a seer, I would find it strange that they would kill her if morm's a wolf. After all, if she had been revealed as a seer, her death would directly point to morm as she suspected him so strongly. The wolves should know that a were-morm would most likely be lynched if that situation were to occur. I suppose they could've been worried she would reveal or a second wolf was in danger of being dreamt of, too. If morm is furry, then by killing Valier (thinking she's a seer), he is practically choosing to sacrifice himself for the other wolves. Well, I suppose that's always a possibility.

But it's also possible the wolves killed Valier to simply incriminate morm. And probably more likely.

EDIT: X-ed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel (sorry, I'm multi-tasking)

But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet? Of course the posts of the louder ones shouldn't be overlooked in order to concentrate on the quiet players, or vice versa, but what you said looks a bit too generalized...

Sorry if this post doesn't make sense. Something troubles me in Greenie's last post and I can't put my finger on it.

Mrs. Sackville-Baggins is off to sleep.

edit: xed since mormegil.

Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them.

Well that is definitely quite wolfy a comment. I don't like how you pick Valier's comment about loud people and with no good reason (as far as I see) conclude that it is more important than her comment about quiet people. Seems like you're using her opinion to achieve your own ends, not to try to find the baddies. It's very suspicious in my opinion. I mean, Valier said two almost opposite things and I can't see why would anyone innocent just pick one of them and start accusing people because of it. For surely it's obvious that if Valier was both for lynching quiet and loud people, we can't really say which ones would consider her a bigger threat? And the convenient way how you move on from saying that loud people would have liked to kill Valier to suspecting me just seems all too wolvishly simplified and flowing to me.

So right now my main suspect is morm and another person I suspect to some extent is Little Green. Great. I find two people suspicious (no, I really don't find Brinn suspicious enough to be included) in a village of 16 living people (discounting myself) in which there are four wolves... :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed with morm, Fea, Rikae, Menel, Brinn and Agan.... huh.

Double post, but this was something I'd thought of earlier:

A lot of Nerwen's "wolfish qualities" merely reflected that she was still a bit new to the game, particularly her need to actively defend herself against every perceived threat.

I'd like to add now that I suspect at least one wolf (probably just one, two at the very most) of voting for her, so checking the Nerwen-voters is probably a good idea.

EDIT: Cross-posted with everyone who posted after my earlier post today

NOTICE: cross-posted with all since Fea's long post "Everybody that directly mentioned her". I don't have time (or more, energy) to write another thing corresponding to the posts I x-posted with, but I will surely think about them till tomorrow. The main point of this is that the concerned person, morm, has posted meanwhile.

I don't have probably much to add to what was already said. I believe most of what was voiced makes sense, except for, as always, my wife, who is chatting here and making improbable theories instead of preparing something to eat for me :p (that's how it works at us Sackville-Bagginses). What I mean: Agan, the reasons you say could have been also reasons for her getting killed seem to be very, very weak points. I mean, seriously, I don't think anyone would kill Valier only because he considered her hunches dangerous or that he was a quiet one (that seems really silly to me because there were others speaking about quiet ones and, anyway, surely not ALL the wolves are quiet ones? Or what? Well they could be, but I believe everyone focuses, to a certain extent, on the quiet ones. At least in certain stage of the game it would come). These could have been secondary reasons, but if one of them were, there had to be also one primary reason that was not one of these two. And that I believe to be her comment:
As it was said. I think it's as simple as that: the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try). That seems the most probable to me. The question would be, what part in their reasoning plays morm - is he one of them? Could be: it's not very clever for a wolf to eliminate a person who seems to nail you, the more if he later shows to be a Seer who dreamt of you (which could very well be true), but still it's better to eliminate her when she speaks only about "hunches" and while she does not say yet "he is a wolf, because I dreamt of him". Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once. Third possibility, they simply did not care and the main thing was killing Valier. Fourth possibility, morm is one of them and he wanted to use this as a double-trick, as he could cover himself by saying "of course had I been a wolf I wouldn't have done that". But the latter seems the least probable to me, because no one says it would even work. It would be more like a random toss: okay, it will bring me in the spotlight, let's see if I can save myself or not.
But all of this is stemming from the basic idea, as I said, that Valier was killed because of being the Seer. It's not the only possibility, but for me really the most probable. I can't just imagine a clever wolf-morm saying "Arrgh! Valier voted me, we must kill her!" as the only reason. He would have three companions to calm him down, in any case.

So, as I said - I agree with the basic opinion that was outlined here, and for the finish before I go to sleep, I can say my feelings on the posts of the people who appeared here today this far. Lommy, especially her last (totally confused :p ) post strike me as very innocentish (if you are a wolf, Lommy, this far you are fooling me brilliantly). Sally makes me quite nervous with these cannibalistic notes, but she is always like that, as far as I noticed. The Might holds up to the image I have created of him, so even he looks more or less okay. Fea is helpful... very helpful. Does she do that always? :eek: Agan, last but not least, seems genuine, though... though. Her points that I criticised above play no role in that - they seem genuine. Simply wrong (from my POV) opinions. But the general way of the post can be also that a wolf has arrived here, realised where the wind is turning to and posted according to it. But who knows.

I'm leaving now. Bye.

Urgh, again.

This explanation looks very very improbable, which is not saying that there can't be quiet Wolves around.

Lommy is once again hurrying to understand how the Wolves thought - like when she herself was a Wolf. But since the thought of Valier's assumed Seerdom also passes my head (like when Lommy was Wolf... :rolleyes: ) I won't condemn her for this.

I have two ideas about Valier's death, although I'll also take the other ideas brought up into account.

1. Valier was thought to be the Seer. (Assuming what the Wolves might have thought -) She might have felt danger during Day1 and already then decided to leave hints about her dream, as her vote for morm was a somewhat wierd and random-ish otherwise. I think that morm might be a Wolf if this is the case.

2. Valier was simply lynched for not leaving a trail and because at least one of the Wolves is sporty. Such players are in my opinion Lommy, Legate, Mac, morm, Fea (?), Brin, Kath, Kuru, Rikae (?) and Aganzir (?) (- questionmarks are signs of doubt if the players are "sporty" enough for the deed). In this case there's probably at least two Wolves in this mightily broad list - which can be reduced in time as new evidence arrives and don't mean everybody dying.


I'll go to sleep now, I have some ideas about who might be who, but I'm plain too tired to form a post about them.


EDIT: Xd with everything since morm

Here's a post I wrote last night, after reading all the posts from day 1 and knowing Nerwen's role. Coment on last night's kill coming up.

------------------------
A few thoughts on the happenings of yester-Day in the light of Nerwen's innocence. But first

Loomy, are you kiddin' me? I've made a living out of boasting about my shrewd hunches... and being extremely loud and stubborn. I don't think that Valier is doing anything wrong, but not all of us are as analytical as you. Having said that, my comment was more a *gasp OMG* defense of Valier than an attack on you.

Dang man, did he just defend someone?? (I know, it's a moot point now)What's he going to do next? accuse someone on somewhat circumstancial evidence?


You bet.Would you expect any less from me?


Furthermore

Look how Rikae deflects the "Nerwen accusation" to Loomy... and yet, not only Rikae is the first one to vote for Nerwen... she's the one to start the accusations!!!

To me, that sounds like a very clever tactic... offer the bait, and if an eager fish bites on it let them run free... they'll look suspicious and thus you not only kill an ordo, but you make another ordo look bad. Win-win situation anyone?

Rikae's accusation of Nerwen is here
Now, a word of caution should be said

Waaaaa? First he defended someone, now he's going to flip-flop within his very first post?

I've played in the past with Rikae and disliked her (game-wise, of course) from Day 1, even though I think she was an ordo (can't quite recall). She is very agressive (again, game-wise) and not afraid to point fingers, she went at me with a vengeance that one game!!

However, that's EXACTLY why I suspect her right now. When she started suspecting Nerwen she seemed a little off, but then most people do... but when she shifted the accusations on to Loomy, even though Rikae had started them herself, she looked wolfish. After all, in the past, she's never been afraid to accuse someone!

And neither have I. She's a wolf, or I'll eat my two feet!!

--Farael Twofoot.

P.S: It's a shame that I missed day 1... one of my characters on the LoTR MMORPG is called Folco Twofoot and he's the loveliest of hobbits, I meant to post in-character as him but I never had a chance.

P.P.S: Since Fea mentioned that she did the same thing The Might did when she was guilty, I should mention that I reacted the exact same way one time I was being accused and I was an ordo. I just got frustrated that no-one would listen. I don't think his behaviour is particularly fishy, but it's not a "get out of jail free" card either. Veteran players who have played with me know that I've proven once and again that you can say just about any insanity and go unlynched, while you can say all the right things and gather a lot of suspicion.

That's why I'm not afraid of speaking my mind. Not to mention that The Might does have a point... Werewolf HAS gotten formulaic, while analysis are useful sometimes, they also bog down the game IMO. It's not a basis for suspecting people, as it has become "good manners" to do long, analytical posts where you have tons of quotes and you look at the whole village all at once.

But in my opinion, those posts are useless at this stage of the game.

FIrst of all, we have a near-full complement of villagers, but little hard information to go by. Hard information being:
-Voting patterns
-A dead wolf to analyze his behaviour towards certain people
-A revelation by a Seer

Therefore, I find it more useful in the first few days to go out there and cause a reaction. If everyone is reacting to everyone else, then when we finally nail a wolf (and it will happen) we'll have hard data (the way the wolf acted/reacted towards others). If all we do are long lists that have much content but little reaction and are very well thought-out, we have no evidence.

Why? because reactions are often less premeditated than analysis posts, and therefore more likely to contain a little slip of the furry tounge. Conversely, while writing an analysis, a wolf may look ten times over for those "red flags" that we are all used to noticing. So he posts a red-flag free, seemingly helpful analysis and who's going to suspect him for it? Sure, he might get it all wrong, but don't we all?...


Wow, that's a lot of text... but I'd like to go back to my accusation. Rikae looks suspicious, as she started the accusations against Nerwen, she was the first one to vote for Nerwen and yet she made it look as if it was Loomy who was agressively going after Nerwen. Fishy Fishy Furry.

Edit: Crossed with everyone after FEa's long post of everyone who mentioned VAlier

What? An attempt to frame me? How? I'm really not following your logic.

What I meant by that strongly suspect-comment was that surely someone who says "I'm quite confident x is innocent" doesn't seem very seerish to wolves if x is one of them? Or it doesn't at least make them think the someone's a seer in the first place. I mean, seers tend to be careful with their suspicions because if they die, they don't want their words to be misinterpreted. And I'd like to add that I said it all depends on the actual wording. You're overlooking that part of my post a bit too happily.

I think it is possible that a partial reason to Valier's death was that the wolves wanted to frame morm, but that creates more questions than it answers to. Why did the wolves choose to make a frame-up kill? It is quite rare, after all. Maybe to confuse us just because of that, but wouldn't they have rather gone after seer (or ranger) -looking people? And if the wolves really chose to frame somebody, why did they pick morm?

EDIT: xed with everybody since my last post

I must admit I have skimmed the narration, I will have to go back in a bit and see what all the nastiness was about.

But Valier dead. I find myself agreeing with those who think her death may have been due to the wolves thinking she was the Seer. I don't really recall Valier making such a thing of the fact that she can catch people on hunches so early on in the past, and I think it quite possible that the wolves thought she was hiding her Seerness behind those feelings. Of course, it is also entirely possible that they killed her off because they know how dangerous a player she can be, but if you're looking for Seer hints on the first Night you've a chance to, I'd say Valier left some accidental ones.

However, as it happens the wolves were, thankfully, wrong, and that brings me to a point from toDay.

That's from Greenie. It was a reply to something Valier had said, but while it looks like a disagreement it is actually an agreement to what our now departed friend said, so I must say that I don't understand the comment. In addition, it's an incredibly generalised statement about something that was argued yesterDay. It seems like Greenie is trying to take us back to yesterDay's arguments and that's strange.

What else has been happening? Oh yes, Lommy is trying to work out whether this is a frame up or a clever double bluff for morm. Well, morm was a little shouty in reply but that is actually pretty understandable given that Lommy practically gave him no way out! Having said that though, I'm pretty used to Lommy trying out every available situation in one post so I'm thinking she's innocent at the moment. morm too for that matter, as he reacted normally rather than defensively to being accused, at least to my mind.

Fea, argh! Such loooong posts to go through, and as yet no comment on them. Getting everything together is certainly helpful, but I'd like some of her own words as well.

Hmm, think I'd better stop as I believe I have cross-posted with a LOT of people ... I can see the emails coming through. Plus, I'm kinda out of thoughts for a bit.

Well, there's something I hadn't noticed, Farael. Thank you for bringing that to our attention.

I think we may have our Nerwen-voter wolf. Rikae's frequent accusations of her weren't good to begin with, but pinning the blame on someone else is worse.

Also noteworthy is that both Rikae and mormegil have been pointing fingers at Lommy. Conspiracy, perhaps? Of course, it could just as easily be a coincidence.

I have to work tonight, so I tried to schedule out what I was doing so that I wouldn't have to leave in the middle of anything. So I got together all the information I wanted to look at, and once I'm at work I'll look at it.

So you'll get some of my own words. Pinkie promise.

Ok, more stuff - quickly:

1. I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.


2. Rikae, why did you drop your style (voted self on Day1 in her first post, was it?) from the preveous game so totally and completely? Last game you seemed to regard Day1 as a waste of time and now you're so certain that the Wolves can be found by analysis already on Day1. This is just a questing, it has been bothering me.


3. Looking at yesterDay, I'm quite sure that Lommy has been Seered upon. I wouldn't concentrate on her too much toDay. Basicly because I don't suspect her a lot. Post #126 seems genuine at the very least, a Wolf wouldn't have phrased her words so, unless Lommy did a very smart bluff on purpose.


X:d with everything since my preveous post. Now I'm totally offline.