If I'm lynched, game over and innocents lose.

Of course I'm hoping that there isn't a Mutineer, a Cobbler, and an Ordo - here. Because that would just be.... a bit evil.

If that is the case, trying to figure out who the real Mutie is, Cobbler?

I think it could be Gwath just a smidge more over Nerwen.



If Nerwen were the Mutineer, then why choose Shasta over Gwath?


hmm.
I'll probably make my vote in the next twenty minutes. Since I'll be blowing stuff up all day, since this is our last Day... and Miss Mod said to make the most of it. :D


X'd with Nerwen.

Day One:

Day two:
Nerwen -> Zil
Mith -> Nog
annu -> Shasta
Rikae -> Shasta (2)
Kath -> Annu
Eomer -> Mira
Shasta -> Rikae
Wilwa -> Eonwe
Rikae -- Shasta
-> Mira (2)
Nog -> Eomer
Mac -> Eomer (2)
Boro -> Mira (3)
Zil -> Annu (2)
Gwath -> Mira (4)
Izzy -> Mac



Day Three:

Sally -> Shasta
Nog -> Annu
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Sally
Mith -> Nog (2)
Shasta -> Annu (2)
Wilwa -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Gwath (2)
Nerwen -> RIkae
Kath -> Annu (3)
Lommy -> Gwath (3)
Zil -> Rikae (2)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Nerwen -- RIkae
Izzy -> Nog (3)
Nerwen -> Annu (4)
Gwath -> Annu (5)


Day Four:

Rikae -> Gwath
Nerwen -> Gwath (2)
Mith -> Sally
Lommy -> Sally (2)
Izzy -> Izzy
Eonwe -> Sally (3)
Zil -> Sally (4)
Boro -> Gwath (3)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Shasta -> Sally (5)
Sally -> Gwath (5)


Day Five:

Nerwen -> Gwath
Mith -> Izzy
Lommy -> Mac
Kath -> Gwath (2)
Boro -> Nog
Eonwe -> Zil (not bolded)
Boro --Nog
Izzy -> Nerwen
Boro -> Kath
Zil -> Kath (2)
Shasta -> Kath (3)
Mac -> Kath (4)
Nerwen --Gwath
-> Izzy (2)
Mac -- Kath
-> Izzy (3)



Day Six:

Izzy -> Mac
Nerwen -> Mac (2)
Lommy -> Mac (3)
Mith -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Mac (4)
Boro -> Mac (5)
Shasta -> Lommy
Izzy --Mac
-> Lommy (2)
Mac -> Lommy (3)
Nerwen --Mac
-> Lommy (4)


Day Seven:

Mith -> Mac
Eonwe -> Mac (2)
Nerwen -> Mac (3)
Gwath -> Mac (4)
Izzy -> Nerwen


Day Eight:

Eonwe -> Shasta
Nerwen -> Eonwe
Shasta -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Shasta (2)
Gwath -> Eonwe (3)





Actually, I'll hold off on my vote.
I'm posting this now, will add analysis a bit later.

Day Four voting speaks in Gwath's favor... if one of Mac/Sally is a wolf.

Day Three a bit as well... again if one of Mac/Lommy is a wolf.

Day Five, does Nerwen come out of the gating, wanting to vote for GWath in hopes that he would be lynched, since the Day before he almost was?

Some of Nerwen's voting is a bit in her favor. She has frequently voted at the beginning of the line. So that speaks a bit in her favor, because what wolf would vote first.. yet it could be due to time constraints. However, her voting choices are suspect. Wolf having to vote that early.. can probably be a bit more daring in their vote... try to get the votes going in that direction?

Oh Issy why do you have to confuse things by becoming a sane useful member of society now? :p

Has Gwath explained his absence anywhere? If so Imissed it... I was a bit suspicious of his days grace but of course none listened to me and then I was lilled...coincidence? Or the reason I was killed? Hmm

I'm usually not into off the wall conspiracy theories, but Nerwen still being alive at this is scary. I will actually agree with Nogrod on his point that the dynamics of the game are interesting, but whoever the last wolf is (assuming it's not Nerwen), would have to be pretty confident to take away one of his/her choices to lynch...probably knowing that Nerwen will not be lynched...that is again assuming Greenie is not a co-conspirator who luckily picked a wolf to lead us all into thinking we can have a trusted innocent.

Now what I will say that these dynamics are different, I think I was killed a couple nights ago so there could be one less person who would unquestionably vote for Mac.

So, Nerwen, like I said...I don't believe in crazy conspiracy theories, if you are the last wolf you and Greenie without question will deserve the win for your super play. If you are innocent, consider why you are still alive. Whoever the last wolf may feel you were more likely to vote with him/her than Shasta would have...hence why Shasta was killed and not you. ;)

Another hint, it might be good to do what I like to on Day 1 if it's possible. :D

Stir up trouble and get yourself lynched as an ordo? Not helpful Boromir!!! :Merisu:

Hehe, no no the other thing...I meant make use of the retractable :D

Oh THAT other thing...... :p

Now this is an interesting reaction to someone making plain pure sense and weighing the different possible scenarios... An innocent - even if one that would end up suspected by that kind of analysis - wouldn't react that way, I'd suppose. "Nice try"? :confused:

I don't know. I hope he had good enough reasons so that Brinn let him stay with the game because of them. For here I would go even farther than Nerwen who said she'd hope Brinn didn't let Gwath continue because he's a mutineer; I'd say it would be a bit lousy victory indeed were it because special rules were applied because of one's role.

And anyway I don't see why the mutineers would have attacked Rikae in those circumstances (Gwath being one of them, that is)... And here I disagree with Nerwen. First of all: why? Why take the risk? They could keep her around for the last Day if they wished - or wait for a better opportunity. Secondly: if there were four mutineers (or even three) after Day4 it would mean that Brinn would have no reason whatsoever to let a mutineer-Gwath live on special grounds. The only reason I could see Brinn take special steps with Gwath is that the mutineers were so badly beaten already at that point that the game would have ended really prematurely - not that I think it's fair politics, but it would be somewhat understandable. But were they low on numbers on Day4, they would not have risked killing Rikae in the first place...

So that explanation doesn't quite add up with other considerations I'm afraid.

If Gwath's a mutineer, whoever said he was given special considerations though?

El Capitain has already pointed out she doesn't like to have to mod-fire someone, but the rule was in place for a reason. Mira and Wilwa both had to leave for most likely not being able to participate not just for 1 or 2 days, but for the rest of the time. Maybe one of them's a wolf, maybe not...but to Brinn it didn't seem like their role mattered. They would have been mod-fired eventually had they not shown up.

Had Gwath not shown up, whether he's a mutineer or not, I think Brinn would have done the same. But Gwath did come back, and who knows whether he told Brinn why he didn't vote for 3 days, or not? It seems the mod-fire is there to make sure of course that there is no 'sour' victory, but that doesn't mean based on other circumstances the mod-fire rule can not be bent.

Basically I'm saying Gwath not being mod-fired should not 'prove' whether he is am mutineer or not, because from the sound of it Mira was going to get the same treatment from the Captain. She was going to get the chance to 'come back,' because of an internet situation, and Gwath was probably getting the same courtesy.

Doesn't mean he's a mutineer, doesn't mean that he isn't, and doesn't mean Brinn didn't want to mod-fire one of the mutineers. It looked to me (at least with both Mira and Gwath) she wouldn't want to, but if necessary would have mod-fired them.

Makes no difference now, because Gwath is back, and I agree with Mith...in this circumstance, an explanation for why the prolonged absense is due.

As I agree with this, wondering still why the mutineer let her live and vote toDay (and especially not to be voted toDay eg. narrowing the choices to two: the mutineer and the other one), I still think we need to remind ourselves of the fact that has been voiced afew times but nit I think too lately.

If Greenie is a spy-impostor the real-seer would know that (Greenie was killed already on Night1!) and even if s/he got killed / lynched without being able to warn us beforehand, it would be totally outrageous, reckless and irresponsible for her/him not to come forwards afterwards claiming her/his role...

So Nerwen basically can't be a mutineer.

It leaves Gwath and Izzy.

I've thought Gwath quite a lot lately as you see and think it's more probable he's not a mutineer than that he is. Nothing's certain in WW of course, but...

That would leave Izzy. Basically because I have no good case against her being a mutineer - like I have with the two others.

EDIT: X'd with the fellow-gunner

Agreed. And not only "should not", but also "doesn't".

Depending on what Gwath has to say, I think I would be leaning torward Izzy being the best choice today.
Nerwen's innocence, almost from the beginning of the game, has been contingent upon whether Greenie's seer claim was legitimate. As no one, even after death has come forward to contest that claim, I can't imagine Nerwen as a Mutineer.
Gwath, as others have said, should give an account of his absence, but it's difficult for me to believe he's a Mutineer either. Missing so many votes would seem to have deprived the good side of an adequate chance to get a good read on him if he's evil.
Which leaves Izzy, who appears to have done all in her power to look consistently suspicious. Cobbler seemed more likely to me for a long time, but process of elimination leads to the conclusion she would be the vote for me today.

x'd with Nogrod

All these thoughts have probably already been stated, but hey...
 

Gwath:

Why would wolf-Gwath not kill Nerwen? His strategy would clearly have been to capitalise on the Nerwen-Izzy animosity. He just needed one of them to do the wrong thing. However, with Shasta and Izzy alive, because of the unlikeliness of Nerwen being lynched, I think the chance of one doing the wrong thing would be higher.


Izzy:

Izzy would need a lot of confidence to make Gwath vote Nerwen, but that could be the only reason to keep Nerwen alive. Of course Nerwen might vote Gwath, but the whole situation looks much easier with Gwath and Shasta alive.
It is in her favour that she's regarded as a cobbler - it makes her a bit more secure of being voted while looking bad, but that doesn't affect the desirability of the two scenarios.


Nerwen:

Is it possible that Nerwen is a wolf after all? In that case, the real seer must either have made a ridiculous blunder, or is still alive, which would mean that Izzy is the real seer, even though she claims it's not so. However, wolf-Nerwen would have suspected Izzy of being the real seer a long time ago - so why is Izzy still alive?


Of course, both wolf-Izzy or wolf-Gwath could have thought that Nerwen is a cobbler.

Question: Was Gwath "gone" when there was a no-kill?

I started to analyse Lommy’s behaviour towards Eonwe, Gwath, Izzy, and Shasta yesterday, but RL came in between me and the really important things. I didn’t look at Nerwen, since I didn’t consider it possible that she’s her fellow mutineer. Now, I only consider it very unlikely (we do have to think about it).

Just a few comments about Eonwe and Shasta, since they’re dead. Lommy is fine with Eonwe almost through the entire game (except for thinking he might be a cobbler briefly). She declares him innocent, ridicules my case against him, and defends him staunchly. Then suddenly the turnaround yesterday. Her defense of him against me must've either been consciously faked, or she analysed him very little before. Once she took the time to look at him yesterday, she conveniently reached a different conclusion. Now he’s dead.

Did anyone notice that Lommy didn’t vote for Shasta on Day1 because she considered herself to be too much of a coward? That attitude quite changed afterwards. ;) She suspected him strongly without any solid reason at all, and when she analysed yesterday, she had to make huge leaps to still colour him bad.

Gwath and Izzy then. Lommy suspected Gwath for a while earlier in the game and even voted for him on Day3 in 3rd position. The next day she’s still suspicious, but less so (without reason). She says she’s still ok with voting for him, but at the same time she dissuades others from doing so. After that, she rapidly drops her suspicion and then declared him innocent (she goes from there to there in a strangely continuous fashion) and still does. Her vote quite suggests he’s innocent, but all her latter behaviour suggests the opposite. Her behaviour towards him on Day4 absolutely screams wolf.

With Izzy she starts out thinking she’s innocent, even stating that she’s one of those she feels best about. Again, she dissuaded people from voting for her on Day4. On the same day later, she concluded that Izzy must be either really frustrated or a cobbler. Henceforth, she never considers her to be anything else but a cobbler. Lommy keeps her safe by calling her innocent as long as she can. When she can’t anymore, she tries to keep her safe by calling her a cobbler and never considering something else.

But there was no Boro intervention on Day 1. :p

The good news is Mac, at least you are watching what you say, making it virtually impossible to see who is your partner. Though, not really sure why you would say something at this point...I mean you pretty much just try to weave in doubt about Lommy, and say Gwath or Izzy could be the last mutineer.

Yes, but I'm fairly sure Izzy missed a day pretty early in the going too, so that might be really hard to tell anything from it. Now you know why I get frustrated over multiple people missing at the same time. :rolleyes:

Though, I still think the key is why Nerwen wasn't killed, and why you...would Izzy have gotten rid of someone who would likely vote against her, to keep you and Gwath, but also make her look more guilty by killing Nerwen? Or is Gwath hoping to use Nerwen's strong suspicion against Izzy, to vote for her, and put this game away?

I think looking at either Mac's interactions between Gwath and Izzy, or Lommy's interactions between the two, are just red herrings at this point. I mean in this situation who's to say how mutineers would act amongst themselves? And it all depends upon personal bias...whether you think Mac is a wolf, or Lommy. There's no doubt one is, I obviously believe it's Mac, Mac obviously believes it's Lommy...but that will just confuse the situation. The key is who would benefit more from an innocent Nerwen still being alive at this point, and not an innocent Shasta? Izzy or Gwath?

Funnily enough, I was planning on doing that yesterDay, then backed out because of the possible risks of it backfiring (e.g. too many real innocents, there being two baddies and them having more evidence, etc).

The plan was actually to say something like "Cobblers attack [whoever seemed suspicious at this point in the game]", then using the responses, judge who was actually evil and who was a cobbler, then try to do a feint and convince the innocents that I'm actually innocent and to vote the evil ones.

A bit crazy, but then again, do is this game.

This had been my plan since Day 2 so I was sad not to be able to use it toDay.

edit: Oh, Noggie seems to have posted some similar scenario already. Oh well...

That seems very likely though...

Maybe because now there's a chance of her getting lynched, she tries to look as innocent/helpful as possible.

It could be Gwath, but whatever the case, the real seer, if they are still alive, they should not reveal, as it seems like there's a cobbler alive too. But then again, why would they leave it so late when there's a chance that they could get killed.
Because of this I think that if Greenie wasn't really the seer, it would have to have been either one of the modfired ones or Gwath. However, we'll never know, so it's probably best if we try to take Greenie's message on board, as that's the only possible information we really have on the living.

Just throwing my thoughts out. I expected to get reactions like these, but at least it won't be my fault if we lose. I'm aware I'm saying that all of them could be mutineers, but since I'm dead, I don't think I have to draw conclusions anymore. If anybody gets a good idea from what I said, I'm ok.

Well, I could continue "acting like a lunatic" Mith. But there are three of us left, so it is definitely serious business time. xD

Zil, there is only one choice toDay.
If we lynch wrong, we lose. If we lynch right.. yay.

If you think I'm the "best choice" then show/prove it.
And no, I've haven't done anything in my power to look suspicious.


Why am I still alive Mac?
Good question. My only guess, is that people have written me off as a Cobbler for so long - that if the Mutineer left believed it. Then they would definitely want me around this Day, to vote with them. If not, then I'd be an easy lynch choice. Just look. People whom are ghosties think I am the best choice. Nerwen could easily vote for me, just look at our "animosity" towards each other. I think even Gwath was thinking I was a Cobbler or Mutie yesterDay.


I missed the first Day, Boro. But have been here for the rest.


Not true, Eonwe. Refer to my comment at the top of this post to Mith.

Clarification
 

I knew Gwath left town for several days, and while I did consider modfiring him, I decided against it since it seemed he would be coming back. Though I do admit part of the reason is because I realised I had reached a point where any sort of modfire could abruptly end the game and it just plain sucks to end your game with modfire. What does this mean? It could mean the extra loss of an innocent would've resulted in instant victory for the aggressors or it could mean the modfire of a mutineer would've resulted in instant victory for the innocents. So interpret this information in whichever way you may like.

Also, with Mira I hesitated because computer problems are unpredictable, so she could return the next Day or not at all. Ultimately I did decide to modfire her since she indicated I should, but then you all lynched her instead. Wilwa asked to be modfired, so there was no avoiding that. Anyway, I did say I'd give leniency to someone who had a reason for not being around and would return, so I think I would've reacted the same for anyone else as I did with Gwath. I didn't say anything on the admin thread about this matter and I should've, so sorry about that.

Hope that clears things up.

I'm not trying to 'prove' anything. I was simply stating an opinion based on what seemed a logical process of elimination.

No? All right then.

Thanks for your clarification Brinn! It sounds like I thought it would.

But this whole bussiness of the "missed kill" I saw Shasta bring up once again (kudos!) - and which I had totally forgotten as I was away then - combined with Brinn's notes makes this once more a bit more open I thought this was.

Okay, here's Brinn then: So it was close, but which way? *goes to look*

Add with the missed kill, the time-zone issues, possible mutineers - and cross-index them with the earlier question... *goes to do exactly that - or something like it*

Sorry, a bit unconventional measures, but in this kind of game nothing's too conventional anyway... :)

I was going to do that, but if Nog is going to...

I wonder how I got back on the boat after being eaten by sharks...?

Hardly. It was actually only the fourth Day (Night) so only 5-6 players were eliminated at that stage. We were twenty in the beginning so at worst it would have been 14 against 4. No instant loss to us in sight there.

So it must be: Which is interesting indeed as I think most of us thought we were faring pretty bad. But that turns the tables a bit. We lynched McCaber on Day1, Mira on D2 and Annu on D3... and well Sally on D4. Could it just be... Then there would be Lommy vs. Mac (or could they both be innocents?). And surely one more.

The missed kill would make sense if the remaining mutineers were Lommy and Gwath. To Lommy the deadline is 7AM and Gwath was away... a communication mistake? That could also give sense of the next Night's Rikae-affair. If they were disorientated maybe they (well one of them) just didn't read the thread well enough... or something?

Ghosts are a tough bunch! :D

Please go on. We need more opinions on this...

I made this list and can share it if someone thinks it's helpful.

The time when Gwath was away is separated by empty lines (even if it's not absolutely certain where he left and where came back... if someone has time to check it - if he said something somewhere + search where is his last and first post after the break that might help - I just don't have the energy right now)

Lynched ones eg. possible mutineers are bolded.

D1 McCaber
N2 Greenie
D2 Mira
N3 Eomer
D3 Annu

N4 ----- (Wilwa modfired)
D4 Sally
N5 Rikae -> Nogrod
D5 Kath
N6 Inziladûn
D6 Lommy

N7 Boro
D7 Mac
N8 Mith
D8 Eönwë
N9 Shasta

Actually it would've been Night 6, as Day 5 was when Gwath missed his second vote.

You were too rubbery, so the sharks spit you back up. :p

Okay, but if Lommy is a mutineer and not the Ranger, as she claimed, then where's the real Ranger? Mac specifically said it wasn't him, which makes me think that Mac is the mutineer of those two, and Lommy was just severely misguided about Eonwe and myself.

Good to know. It would have been 5-4 in the worst case... and yeah, possibly really dangerous, instant losing comes to mind indeed. But that worst case scenario (5-4 in the beginning of Day6) would also mean that we have gotten now three mutineers in a row eg. Lommy, Mac and Eönwë... (heh, both Lommy and Mac as mutineers... well not too hard to imagine though :)) That would definitively point to Izzie then.

The other chance being - as it looks like Brinn is real with her expression "instant victory" - would be that three out of the four first eg. McCaber, Mira, Annu & Sally were mutineers and Gwath actually is the last one... (leaving both Mac and Lommy innocent... :rolleyes:)

Good point indeed... *needs to think*

I'm going to continue on, since I only had a minute or two to touch on it earlier.




If Gwath is a mutineer, and you think Eonwe, Lommy, and Mac as possible Mutineers - then why did all three of them vote for Gwath this day? Gwath was going to be lynched, until he voted for Annu. If Nerwen and him are mates (which I don't think is the case.) - then it could be argued that Nerwen was trying to save him. Of course, if she is a Cobbler, then she could've been trying to save a suspected MutieGwath.


Between Sally and Gwath. If Gwath is a Mutie - and Mac is one - then why would Mac vote for him in this case? Or could it of been two Mutie's on the board... and Mac had to choose between two of his mates? Though Mac's vote for Gwath didn't put him in the lead, just possibility of lead. Trying to lynch an innocent, or jumping on the wagon to try and make himself look good?

If Mac and I are mates, then why would he switch his vote at the last second to me? He could've left it on Kath.


If Mac was so certain that Lommy was a Mutie, then why did he wait to make his vote for her? Lommy didn't exactly wait to place her vote for him. Nor did Nerwen and myself. Though we both changed to Lommy.


I'm the only voter who didn't vote for Mac. If I was his mate, why wouldn't I just jump on the wagon? I think once Nerwen placed her vote, his fat was pretty sealed in terms of voting.

Both candidates on the table were innocents?




Edit. Fixed a rogue tag.

Well, maybe instant, give or take a phase or so...or maybe not. Don't try to read too literally into my words, as they do have a vague underlining to them. I'm not going to just give everything away because what's the fun in that? :rolleyes:

I'd just like to point out, Izzy, that Mutineer-on-Mutineer votes are much more playable in this setup, as the dead aren't silenced.

Gwath? Nerwen? Either of you around?

Hey, just got here.

Good points Izzy.

As I've said before, I'm soo happy I don't have to choose!

I do understand. It would be poor to give everything away that easily... I just noticed that one scenario where it could have been 5-4 and indeed "instant"... But as Izzy showed, that scenario looks quite implausible right now.