You "know" he's a wolf...Are you saying that you're the Seer?

If not, could you expand a bit on your reasons for why you think Inzil is a wolf? I know you gave some reasons yesterDAY, but a little more would be helpful.

Um, why would she want to distance herself from the lynching of a wolf? Doesn't make sense to me (unlike the rest of your reasoning here).

The thing is, everything she said against Nessa or other people was based on sound reasoning, and nothing looks to me like it was arrived at by Nightly inspiration. Trailless kill seems much more likely to me.

(x-ed with Kit and Cop. :eek:)

She's not saying she thinks, she says she knows.

Kit, when did you gain this knowledge?

Also, since you'll be dead toMorrow, I think it would be a good idea to tell us your other dream and give us a known innocent (assuming you didn't dream another wolf, in which case I'd think you'd have said so).

It's past 5AM and my brain has turned into swiss cheese, so I'm not entirely sure why I said that. I was probably thinking along the lines of situations where wolves have gone for a wolf-on-wolf vote after a wolf lynching was already a sure thing. However, things hadn't reached that point when Nessa laid her vote.

I just don't understand why they would go for a trailless night kill in circumstances like the ones at hand. But I also don't understand why they would have gone for Nerwen thinking she was the seer on such thin grounds, because in these circumstances they would have needed to be sure in order for it to be worth the risk. But it must have been one of those options regardless.

Looks very much like it. I asked for clarification because I wanted to be totally sure I wasn't misunderstanding her.

Things have got interesting with Kitanna probably being Radagast, but I've really got to go now...

Night 2. I dreamt an innocent on Night 1.

I didn't plan to reveal, but since Nessa died a wolf, I wanted the village to get two in a row. I have a terrible record as seer and sacrificing myself seems like a good choice since I have a known wolf.

I was afraid of this.

I am the Seer.

My Night 1 dream was Kitanna. Hence, my "vague" suspicion. I was hoping to get her lynched.

Unfortunately, my dream last Night was Nerwen.

Why didn't they kill me last Night? I can't say. Maybe it's just an exceptionally bold pack confident of their one remaining member.

Oh well.

Can't say I'm surprised. So who of you two is the fake?

If you chose Zil, you let a wolf walk free. You'll lynch me, I'll die the real seer and he'll live an extra day while a different innocent takes my place tonight. There's nothing I can say to convince you of my innocence over his fake reveal. I still have a dream and that person is alive unlike Zil's conveniently dead dream of Nerwen. I'm going to hold on to that information because I won't give it to a village that doesn't trust me.

You can all think for yourselves and decide who to believe. But remember you'll waste the day and that's exactly what Zil wants.

(Augh, I'm glued to this thread. Such drama.)

Inzil looked quite suspicious after yesterDay, in my opinion, which is why I put him at the top of my suspicion list. It would be reasonable for a Seer-Kitanna to dream of him (especially since he voted for her), and sensible for her to come out today and tell us we've got an Inzil-wolf. It would also make sense for Inzil to come out as a fake seer and to claim that he knew Kitanna was a wolf from the start.

However...it's still possible that things are the other way around. And Kitanna is refusing to give the name of the known innocent for some reason. It's only natural that the village would doubt which is real and which is fake. Kitanna, why won't you give the innocent's name to the village unless we trust you? I don't understand that at the moment.

Inzil, you're saying that you were trying from the start to get Kitanna lynched. If that's so, wasn't your talk about vague suspicion a suicidal move? Why did you talk about vague suspicion of her, even though you say you're surprised that they didn't kill you during the night?

Why do you people pull these pranks while I'm busy? Ugh. So rude.


I'm the seer. I dreamt everyone. You're all guilty. Let's move on.

(Not really. I'll read through the thread again when I get home and see who I believe. It's too early in the game for this silliness....)

Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.

Actually, it would make sense. If you're Radagast and they'd killed you, we'd most likely have lynched Kit toDay anyway, whereas this way, they gain a chance of getting you lynched and using toNight's kill on someone else. If the third wolf hadn't come under any suspicion worth mentioning yet, it would be a viable strategy.

All I can say is that I tried to be vague enough in my suspicion of Kit that they wouldn't home in on me, and at the same time leave something to go on in case they did.

Also, I thought Nerwen might have been trying to raise Sally as an alternative lynch to Kit after Sally's vote for her. That's why I picked Nerwen last Night.

Without further ado:

++Kitanna

Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

Fair enough. That's pretty much all I can say, but if anyone has a question, feel free.

I'll be honest, I've given you a wolf already. And if that still gets me lynched I don't feel inclined to help this village further. I will reveal my dream if this village trusts me enough to lynch Zil. When I die, I'll die innocent. Zil and his packmate can't say the same.

You may all waste the day trying to decide who you want to believe. I have nothing left to say on the topic. Once I get back to my house I will concentrate on finding the third wolf.

And if we lynch Zil and find him genuine, the point will be moot anyway, is that it?

Whichever one it is, there will be connexions to analyse from Day One: both Kitanna and Inzil were in the thick of things. And considering that first days are often uneventful and lacking in content, I'm glad our Seer battle is between these two!

Coppermirror
1: Mostly IC comments, with a quick paragraph about our odds as a village.
2: A response to Zil's comment about her preemptive defense. (that she had been sleeping through the night)
3: Just stating she'll be back later.
4: Summarizes what has happened thus far, but doesn't really say anything about what she thinks. Again explains herself to Zil about distancing herself from wolves.
5: Nothing much.
6: She pretty much states that she'll vote for a quiet one or the one who hasn't shown up. Which is what Nessa ended up doing.
7: She lists our odds again. Stating After reading her scenarios this comment doesn't look too good. The village is so small, losing an innocent through a lynch should always matter.
8: Votes Nessa because she doesn't like that Nessa voted for Pitch, even though she had plans to do so herself. She does state that after working through worst-case scenarios she had changed her mind. 9: Distance and defense of vote for Nessa.
Day 2:
10: She thinks the wolves thought Nerwen was the seer. I have no clue how she drew this conclusion. Why you? Why G55? Nerwen looked like a normal Night 2 pick. She didn't vote or leave much behind.
What? You never once expressed any desire to lynch Nessa until your vote post. This looks like a "look, I helped catch a wolf, I wanted to vote for her all along, afterall."
I'm glad she finally commits to some form of suspicion that straddling the middle ground. And her reasoning for finding G55 innocentish is interesting.
11: She answers my questions about why she thought Nerwen was the seer in this post. She also puts forth a few interesting theories on Nessa and her vote for Pitch.
12: Talks about Zil's early posts in which he does sort of pick her out of the crowd. She had been talking the most at the time. Understands his vague feelings of guilt on my part, but still finds him suspicious.
13: Thinks she misread my reveal and asks for an expansion.
14: Explains her reasons for why Nessa would distance herself from a wolf lynch.
15: Sees how Zil is the wolf and I'm the seer, but also sees how I'm the wolf and Zil's the seer.

Copper speaks a lot and on Day 1 didn't say a whole lot of anything. Even though she has listed some suspicions today she is still not committing to anything. That makes me wary, but I'm not sold on her as guilty. I'm not convinced she's innocent either. I'd like to see what else she has to say.

Shasta
1: IC banter
2: Responds to Zil's declaration of voting for him just for being Shasta. Mostly more IC banter though.
3: I'm not sure who he's referring to. Sally maybe?
4: Votes Nessa, doesn't really give a reason.
He hasn't spoken today and there's not much to go on. I don't like he didn't even try to give a reason for voting Nessa.
Maybe I misread this, but after his response to Nerwen I'd have thought he'd throw a vote in her direction. Still he looks slightly more innocent because (and someone let me know if I screw up the order) but he was the first to vote Nessa. It's weird he didn't give a reason. Did he maybe think the voting would turn against me to her at any time and he was working to distance himself? Or was he just voting for her cause of his own time constraints and her vote for Pitch was suspicious enough to vote for.

Can I just "This" that entire post? Because I have.


Kit would have been nicely on the lynching block again toDay, so I could see her trying a reveal, but at the same time I could see a poor and frustrated seer!Kit knowing she needs to impart her wisdom while she still can.

How convenient, then, that Dun has dreamt Kit, and Kit Dun. Might we entertain the possibility that they are both wolves, and that this is a rather elaborate scheme? Of course not, because the real seer would have spoken up by now. (Unless of course it's me and that "reveal" up there was, at least in its former parts, genuine. But how likely is that, right?)


At this moment I'm more inclined to trust Dun, but I know nothing for certain, at least as far as wolves are concerned. I'm off to tidy my lair, but I will return later with less confusing (but still frustratingly honest, apparently :p) thoughts.

Sally
1: Normal Sally day 1, post 1.
2: Maybe Sally's the real seer and Zil and I are just playing an elaborate prank. Comments that maybe we'll lynch a wolf by sheer dumb luck.
3: Responds to my comment about how dumb luck won't work because Boro isn't in this game and she's not a wolf.
4: Looks at the odds and decides the dumb luck comment maybe wasn't entirely false. Lists who she won't be voting for based on usual Sally nonsense.
5: Banter
6: IC
7: Votes for me. I don't appreciated my name being used near the word "creep", thank you very much. Sounds like she drew a name out of a hat to vote.
Day 2:
8: Makes an interesting point that Nessa's vote makes her look bad and Pitch look good. Not so sure I agree with it.
9: Angry at seer shenanigans. She'll comment later.
It grieves me to say so, 'cause Sally is always high on my list, but for once she doesn't look bad. She hasn't really sad anything that suggests anything other than a frustrated innocent crunched for time.

G55
1: Mostly "I'm alive, but will be back"
2: Responds to a few of Coppermirror's questions observations (Day 1 is mostly banter, especially early and explains the sub-hunter) Doesn't like Sally's vote, but doesn't blame her.
3: Summarizes how she feels about everyone. Continues her dislike of Sally's vote, but understands why she voted as she did. Her two top suspects are Nerwen (for having a feeling about her) and Shasta, because she's worried of him flying under the radar. Seems like Nerwen will get her vote.
4: Dislikes Nessa's vote, feels it is too easy to hide behind. A very good point.
5: Votes Nessa.
Not sure what to make of G55. She hasn't spoke up yet today and of her top suspects (Nessa, Nerwen, and Shasta) two are dead and one isn't around yet either. I can see G55-wolf steering votes toward a packmate, but I don't know if I can see it on Day 1. I do find it interesting so many of her suspects have wound up dead.

Eomer
1: Banter
2: Apparently Coppermirror drowns cats. I'm glad I caught this post. I needed a laugh.
3: Makes an interesting scenario out of Zil's "vague feelings", Sally's vote, and Nerwen's attack of Sally's vote.
4: Believes killing Sally is always an option.
5: Recounts the votes so far.
6: Questions Zil's baiting Coppermirror tactic and isn't sure how Zil can figure Nessa or Nerwen's role by my death.
7: If Zil is a wolf, Sally is probably not.
8: Against the Nessa bandwagon, but not for her vote either.
9: Votes Sally.
Day 2:
10: Vote tally.
11: I'll have to reread Zil's post that led to this, but he decides Zil's suspicion of me is genuine. Still thinks it's weird.
12: Response to seer reveals.
At first I wasn't sure what to think of Eomer, but I believe he may well be wolf #3. He distanced himself from the Nessa bandwagon well, but also kept packmate Zil in his sights as a possibility at all times. This way when Zil goes down Eomer can hide behind his earlier suspicions. Whatever happens today I think a closer watch should be kept on him.

Pitch
1: Making up for missed Day 1 banter. Puts down some scenarios for Nessa's vote and vote placement. Asks Copper why she thought Nerwen was a possibly seer.
2: Responds to some of Zil's comments.
3: Response to Sally's post 8.
4: Further response to Copper's various scenarios.
5: Tells Copper I did just do a seer reveal.
6: Asks me to tell my dream.
7: Is unsurprised that someone else seer revealed.
8: I am being quite angry with this village and am going to keep my dream to myself. It's thanks to Zil who refuses to go down, but just wants to confuse things. I'm frustrated and angry. I also have nothing to lose but my own life at this point.
9: Believes Zil is the most seerish villager, but isn't ready to vote for me on the off chance I'm telling the truth.
10: *shrug* Neither one of us will live past Day 3 anyway.

Pitch is probably innocent.

Kudos to Kitwolf for the prodigious effort!

I personally think Coppermirror and G55 are probably innocent.
The former for general good sense, and the latter for the vote on Nessa, which seems unnecessary for a packmate of hers.

Sally doesn't strike me as a likely wolf. Her vote on Kit I put in the same boat as G55's on Nessa: not needed and too dangerous.

Shasta? Well, once again why vote for Nessawolf? Granted, as I said, Nessa's vote for Pitch looked pretty darned fishy, but still, it seems he could have found some other option to buy his mate another Day. I mistrust him in general, though, so it's rather difficult to be objective.

Pitch himself is enigmatic. I do like his skepticism in trying to sort between Kit and me, though it's still so strange to me that Nessa went for him over everyone else. Was it just a throwaway from a wolf wanting to keep above the fray? Or a wolf feeling safe in voting for a mate who hadn't made an appearance all Day and was thus a very unlikely lynch?

And that leaves Eomer. It seemed to me that he was deliberately not understanding what I'd said about my intentions with Coppermirror and Kit, and his vote for Sally could be his picking up on what Nerwen had said, trying to divert things away from Nessa. Rather trips the radar.

I have to vote now, as it's bedtime for me and I most likely won't be able to come online again before DL (which is near the end of my workday).

I hate this whole situation, and if Kit's a wolf, she does the angry frustrated innocent part really well. Also I concur with some of her analyses, most notably those of Cop (whom I think more probably innocent, however) and Eomer (funny, since I considered him a likely packmate for a Kitwolf earlier).

How likely is it, though, that a Zilwolf just happened to random-suspect our seer, of all people, in a seerish-looking way? Also, how much danger of getting lynched toDay was Kit really in prior to her reveal? (Yes, I mentioned her as a possible packmate of Nessa's in my first post, and the thought that Zil was the seer and had dreamed her had crossed my mind, but his continuing existence among the living cast a lot of doubt on that.) What I'm saying is wolvish guilt may have led her to underestimate her chances.

I really think it makes more sense the other way 'round, and Kitwolf is sacrificing herself in order to take down the seer before he can dream her last packmate.

Therefore
++Kitanna

Zil, if you're a wolf, well done. Kit, if you're a wolf, that was a brave attempt; if you're the real seer, may we meet in the flesh some day so you can slap me to your heart's content.

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels. But, you know, maybe we're just right.

++Kit

For the record, Eomer strikes me as the first choice for the other wolf, but I don't think he'd be so bold as to vote me after I voted Kit. I don't know. I'm not thinking too much into all this until we see the results of toDay's lynch. If I'm wrong, I will be ever so cross (and also probably dead)....

Ugh. I wish I knew more toDay. >.<

I already voted but
++Kit

I have a headahce. Just don't kill Sally. She's my other packmate.

Oh. Right. I should point out that if Kit were the real seer, she'd tell us her dream now so we at least gain something from all this. Then again, I'm pretty sure she's not the real seer, so, you know, never mind. I'm going to have some dinner now.


EDIT: Oh, you dirty little....

Just a note before I leave:
Shasta voted Nessa before she voted me. He was laconic enough about his reasons, but if I understand him right, he was going exclusively on the latching-on point mentioned by Nerwen.

Good night, and á vala Manwë.

Right, I'm here, and reading. Bit of luck on the Nessa vote - I noted someone else had seen what I'd seen about her, and something was telling me "bad!" and I had to vote, so. I apologize for my relative lack of being here. I'll do better. :)

Right, babe, you've done your part. Now just follow Sally's lead and all will be fine. :Merisu:

Reading Pitch's #69, I'm pretty well following the logic until I get here -

Why's that, Pitch?

Nnn. Sally, dear song partner of mine, this post. I don't like it, my dear. Firstly, I've seen you play the self-deprecating wolf before. It was in that play, "The Two Werewolves of Verona", remember?

Secondly, you're basically running with the assumption that Nessa in particular and the wolves as a whole thought Pitch was gifted - in that case, why isn't he dead?

Oh, dear. How ever am I supposed to come murder you in your bed at this rate. :rolleyes:

Cop, I have a question for you -

In this suggestion, Pitchwife himself would be the packmate he's suggesting Nessa threw away her vote on. Was this a typo, or something?


....

Aaaaand Kit at #80 makes pretty much everything else moot. :rolleyes:

And there's Inzil's counter-reveal at #87.

That post wasn't against the light of my life, that was me mentioning I was thinking Nessa was jumping on something Eomer said as opposed to Nerwen.

So hurtful. :(

Right, so, we've got Kitanna versus Inzil for today. I'm going to go back and look at Day 1 - although, interestingly, a Kitwolf would know all the innocents in the village, plus, this is a prime opportunity to mess with the village's mind should she be lynched (she tells us Person A is a dreamt innocent, dies a wolf. Was she trying to protect Person A (her packmate)? Was she trying to get them lynched via WIFOM? etc.)

It's weird to me that a Kitwolf wouldn't just go ahead and say someone was innocent. Whereas a frustrated innocent Kit might just be contrary because she's not being believed.

My harmonious darling, just because Nessa thought that doesn't mean her partners agreed with her. I should think that would be obvious. I never implied that the rest of the pack agreed with her, but it's interesting that you jumped to that conclusion. Are we simply out of tune, or are you playing a darker piece than we agreed upon?

#15 - Inzil says Kit strikes him as "a bit off, but it's really a thin thing."

#22 - Inzil on Kit again - "some ill-defined feeling of unease"

#23 - Kit wants a reason for Inzil's suspicion.

#24 - Inzil mentions "the feel of the first couple posts."

#48 - Inzil - "It is a bit suspicious the way Sally latched onto what I said about Kit. Funny thing is, I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit."

#49 - Inzil votes Kit.

#52 - Kit - "I'll probably vote for Zil at this point. Because I don't like his "Kit strikes me as a bit off, but it's really a thin thing." and "I was trying earlier to bait the hook with Coppermirror, not Kit.""

#62 - Kit votes Inzil.

Conclusion - Well, it does look like a standard Seer lead-up on Inzil's part, and Kit does look a bit retaliatory, as though she's realized she's in trouble. But if that's so, and Kitwolf did realize Inzilgast had dreamt her, why not kill Inzil last night?

My fault, dear. I saw this -

(bolding mine)

- and took it to mean "a wolf that's not Nessa."

I do still think it a bit odd that you're so sure Nessa thought Pitch was gifted when he hadn't been here, though.

Ahhhh. Fair enough. No worries.

I don't take it as canon, but it's an explanation I can think of that made sense. In a village this small, eliminating gifteds is a huge thing, and if Pitch wasn't around to defend himself, it would make it much easier. It also could have been plain opportunism or, for that matter, something random.

I thought Pitchwife had said that and then added that it's not true because he's not a wolf. However, on second glance I was mixing up something Pitchwife said with something Inziladun said:

I'm going to go over Kitanna's analysis of me, and then I'll do an analysis of Kitanna vs Inziladun to try to work out who to believe.

For most of Day 1, my biggest worry was that people would not talk and that that would make it difficult to make a decent guess about who to vote for. This isn't a normal sized village but a small one, so we were in a lot of danger and absolutely had to catch a wolf on either Day 1 or 2. A quiet Day 1 would mean a village loss; I was thinking that all the wolves needed to do to win was stay relatively quiet, and wait for louder people to turn on each other. So I was inclined towards a favourable view of anyone who was trying to contribute and encourage discussion, and towards suspicion of anyone quiet or who only posted once or twice.

I think you are mis-stating what I said, if only slightly. I didn't say in that post that I intended to vote for a quiet one or for one who hadn't shown. I said that I had intended to do that, but that because more people were posting, now I would wait and see, and that I wasn't sure who to vote for. But fair enough, I did actually continue with a variation on that strategy until part way through page 2. I tried to match people to my idea of what a sensible wolf would be doing. My bad luck was that by the time I wanted to vote, both of my possible suspects had disqualified themselves from those criteria.

Here I do think that you're being a bit misleading.

This is what I said, after going through the worst case voting scenarios.

I hadn't planned to vote for Pitchwife. I did consider it and think something along the lines of "Oh no, Pitchwife's going to get mod-fired. Would it help us to lynch him beforehand?" and so I worked through the worst case scenarios to find the answer to that. (Which was no.)

I thought that everyone was likely to assume that G55 and I were probably innocent, based on our votes for Nessa. We were second and third, and this is a very small game with high stakes, with the odds in the wolves' favour. If either of us were wolves, it would be quite unnecessary and risky to place those votes for Nessa. As such, I thought that the wolves would have to be crazy not to reduce the list of probable innocents, unless they believed they had found the Seer. Therefore, I assumed that because they didn't go for me or G55, they must have believed they had the Seer. I explained this on the last page, too. Nerwen would be a totally normal Night 2 pick, yes, but this is not a normal game, is it?

It probably does look that way. I actually said that because I thought that Nessa must still be reading the game and might be feeling bad about her mistake in voting for Pitchwife. I wanted to let her know I was going to vote for her for a really lousy reason even if she hadn't slipped up, in case that made her feel better.

I didn't express any desire to lynch Nessa before that post because my reasoning for lynching her before then was arbitrary. My two suspects from earlier in the game had disqualified themselves from my idea of how a sensible wolf would be behaving (ironically, Nessa actually was one of them; Shasta was the other one) and I wanted to vote for someone ASAP, but didn't have any suspicions any more. So because Nessa had one vote as opposed to Kitanna's two, I planned to vote for her in order to create a small tie and see if any information could be gained from how people reacted. I wasn't satisfied with that reason at all - it was a terrible reason because it wasn't based on any real suspicion - so I was happy when she placed such a suspicious vote for Pitchwife. A vote for him at that point wasn't going to help the village, so I assumed she wasn't trying to help the village.

...Which is probably a lot more than you wanted to hear. I hadn't mentioned most of this because I thought it was trivial and irrelevant. Anyway, I hope that helps. Next up, I'll get to looking at that Kitanna and Inziladun analysis.

All quiet on the Werewolf front, it seems. Well, mostly anyway. I'm off to bed, so I'll hopefully see most of you toMorrow.