See, I almost buy that theory... until the part about there being a rule about having to out the dreamt wolf. That part seems farfetched to me.

Hold your horses, I'm busy just like you. :p If you want a quick summary.

Basically, I don't like how the focus has been narrowed down to 2 people today. That is handing the wolves a situation they can control. I wanted to start putting pressure on the people I haven't been spending a great deal of time on, plus those who have been easing by, not getting involved in all these battles that keep happening every day. So, those who have been playing a clean, safe game so far. I include you in here (along with Bes and Brinn...and to a lesser extent sally).

As far as specific things against you. Your votes so far are questionable. Your Day 1 looked reasonable enough, but Mnemo said in #108 that a vote for you would be "too easy" especially considering your vote for Mac. And in #120 Pitch said that your vote looked based on a hunch and that it was understandable. That's 2 wolves defending a vote that I don't see was all that bad. The early first votes are usually the safest (but of course do to any time constraints it is understandable), but no one really finds early Day 1 votes suspicious. So, I wonder what 2-wolves are doing defending you for it?

Plus your vote for yourself. You didn't want to be mod-fired, that's good and it doesn't point to either innocence or wolvery. But the fact that it was for yourself, it looks not only safe, but a move to make people think you're innocent since you did vote for yourself. Now, I'm not familiar with you as a wolf yet, but from the reputation it sounds like you are a tough one to follow. And that vote explains it...you vote because you do not want to be mod-fired, thus you did not want "die." Yet you vote for yourself which suggests you do? The vote itself is safe, and typically when innocents vote for themself it's out of frustration...but your self-vote wasn't out of frustration which makes it look like you were doing it to look innocent, and that gets me suspicioius.

Wow, Nog, you have just convinced me to reconsider everything I've concluded about Lottie. On top of that, I really would not want to see either you or Lommy lynched today (possibly for good too).

I'm not familiar with the "birthday-dreamer" but what you are describing sounds like the Mythomaniac, who chose a person and then could assume their role.

And I don't suspect you for pointing this out, it's something I didn't think about. My reasons for adamantly defending Lottie were, because every part of her reveal matched up. Also, yesterday, if she did only get one dream then the wolves may deem other people larger threats, and risk keeping a known innocent around. That is why I was trying to push that we accept her story, however I also wanted to challenge her to be a real pain-in-the-@** to the wolves, and either try to make them kill her or regret they didn't. Her behavior today and yesterday is a lot different than the days she revealed and then gave us Pitch.

Now they did sacrifice a wolf, but think of the benefit for pulling off a stunt like that if you and wilwa are correct about the secret-role. What do we then make of Bes? Because now the whole Lottie saying "I only dreamed of Pitch, because he said I should dream of Bes" looks too fabricated and clean.

The role Nog is describing does seem very awkward, yes. The point where it all falls apart for me is pretty basic: If that were the role, why would she ever reveal that she was a Birthday Dreamer when she could as easily claim to be a regular old Seer, and just hadn't found a wolf yet? She and most everyone else were already pretty confident about Pitch by that point, it would more or less be a done deal.

I understand that she'd have become suspicious after that and around Day 7 or 8 it would be hard for her to claim that she hadn't found a new wolf yet, but it would be better than telling us she was a Birthday Dreamer, which would imply to us that if she was right, she would be a new wolf herself. I think the role works just like she told us it does. Well, barring some wicked reverse psychology and assuming that no one could look up the role.

Edit: Crossed with Boro

It's not having to dream a wolf. The "mythomaniac" role could pick one person (at a certain point) and assume that role for the rest of the game. So, if he/she picks and ordo, she's an ordo.

I'm just familiar with it, because I remember being a wolf, and getting super happy and confident that we killed the seer early (I think Day 2 or 3). But there was also the mythomaniac role, who had picked the seer, assuming seer duties and I was ousted as a wolf.

Now there's a sudden change of tune about Lottie!

Before I jump the gun, I guess it would be wise to realize I've also just had a sudden change of tune about Lottie too and to think about Nog's concerns more. But Bes goes from voting for her, and trying to discredit her, to defending.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=671

Not that sudden. Pitch was a wolf, which implies that I was wrong about Lottie. Suspecting her at this point doesn't seem to make much sense. Anyway, if "Birthday Dreamer" isn't a real role and could mean anything, then yes my argument does fall apart. I'm going to run off and see if I can find a guide on roles, now, because this is getting ridiculous.

Edit: Crossed with Boro again.

I'll say what I was going to before this "Evil!Birthday dreamer" theory came up.

Boro's making a lot of sense here, and the way nearly everyone seems to be for lynching Lommy is starting to worry me. Although, if she's a wolf, there's only one other, so it's not like there'd be a large rescue party... But still, Sally is one of those jumping on her, and I still don't trust her– her last post felt quite evil. (EDIT: Not to mention Lottie, who voted her, being possibly evil after all). And it's worrying me too, the way people who were suspected earlier have managed to disappear out of view again, and the way Morsul and Bes just seem to slip by from Day to Day in their own little bubbles, with nobody taking much notice of them (although I think Morsul's shameless flattery of me should get him a pass for toDay ;)).

But the thing is, this is all a glaring contrast to the way Boro acted yesterDay. Boro, I know you said this:

But in fact you were all for slicing off Wilwa's head with Occam's razor hours before the DL. You really pushed to lynch her.

EDIT:X'd since Shasta.
EDIT2:Word left out; added comment.

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...0&postcount=29

Well I'll be damned.

Edit: I realize that it's Nog both there and here, but it's not like he's making it up just now for our benefit. It's been said before.
Edit2: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=465
http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=643

So, where does that put us now?

But if it's between two people, I'd rather vote for the one I find more suspicious, which is you.

I admit it's possible my suspicion of you has blinded me from your defenses as I cannot see it coming from anything but an evil perspective. And I know it's annoying for someone to be stuck on one person (especially if you're the victim), but I'm not just going to let go because of the possibility I could be wrong. You've been this way before too. In the last game I modded, you insisted Mac was a wolf and wouldn't let go of it until he was lynched...and in the end, you were right. So while you still hate it, surely you can see where I'm coming from. If I'm wrong and you are innocent, then I apologise, though I won't feel too terrible since I didn't suspect you without good reason.

Nogrod makes an interesting point about Lottie's role, though I wouldn't be too quick to jump on her just because of what the role might've involved in the past. For one thing, the birthday dreamer role hasn't been used for a long time, before Legate's time too I think. His version of birthday dreamer could possibly be different than what it originally was. I just don't understand why she would reveal if this was so; maybe she didn't know the role already existed? I don't have time to figure this out, so I'll think about it more toMorrow when I actually have time.

I have class now, so I must vote now since I won't be back. No surprises here:

++Lommy

First of all claiming to be a regular seer would have been really dangerous as people would have wanted some names, basically on Day-to-Day basis. Of course a wolf could give you an innocent - even a mate as an innocent - every Day (and claim that every single person she had dreamt thus far had been killed or lynched already - which would be a bit eyebrow-raising as itself), but looking at the end-game there might have been some serious problems for the wolves, especially if the ranger got a hold of the game and started succesfully denying the wolves.

Secondly I think it would be highly unlikely a "secret role" would have been a normal seer role. That would have been even more an anticlimax than just a "one Night's seer" (which I honestly find an improbable and odd role).

Thirdly it might very well be that when she had to come up with this "one Night seer" -role to hide her real role she wished to give it a name - and named it with the name Legate had given her, her not knowing the ancestry of the role named thus (and Legate might be a person who studied history when using names on roles - the sad thing being I only remember it was thus... I'll try to find it but it might be quite laborious to find; so anyone who remembers the Birthday dreamer role accurately, please come forwards!).

Okay, I admit we're again walking the thin line between meta-reasons and in-game reasons, but as she actually said herself in this thread: I don't feel too bad pointing at it...


EDIT: X'd with Bes & Brinn (good to see you trying to find the thing Bes... didn't you find anythnig more on it? - Okay I'll give it a try as well)

Plus the fact that the game started... on Legate's birthday. :rolleyes:

In any case, I'm just back from a final and am reading. Right now I'm still thinking that one of Nog and Lommy is a wolf, and that Boro and Bes have done complete 180s on Lottie which strikes me as odd.

Where I stand - I would be willing to lynch Lommy, Nog, and to a lesser extent Sally today.

A note - Nerwen is far below my radar this game. If there's anyone not playing like they usually do, it's my queen. :Merisu:

Edit: X'ed with Nog. Remember where absolutes get you, Nog? (Hint: Roa wasn't a wolf.)

That was a good one. I mean really it might make sense...

Where do you find "absolutes" in my last post? :rolleyes:

Shasta: Still spinning on Lottie, if it matters at all. I'd like to get the analysis of someone more experienced on what I've found so far before I go making any more decisions...

Yes, I was willing to bet the house she was a wolf. I got it wrong, I'll send her a christmas card or something to make up for it. :rolleyes: When you realize you were wrong about your top suspect, and you put a lot of effort towards that one suspect, you realize that you have no idea about anyone still living besides a few vague feelings. My certainess about believing I was on the "right trail" took a big hit.

And I still just did not like the way today was shaping up with the direction being driven on Nog and Lommy. Yesterday, and the day before, there was still a lot of things going on, and action, besides my hard-headed crusade against wilwa.

Possibly, but I don't agree with the reasoning that the role was used before Legate's entrance into WW. He's a heavy reader of past and present games (of course when he's got the time for it). He could easily know about the role, doesn't mean it's not altered, or that Nog is even correct, but it is worthy of more thought than a quick dismissal. ;) Especially since, I think Lottie has changed her behavior from her revealed days as a believed seer, to her last 2 days as an assumed innocent.

Okay, I found at least this from Valier's WWJ Attack of the Werecats:The ppuuuurrfect village (06)

Indeed... and the thing is, Bes' response to the situation is looking to me not unlike a panicking wolf-cub.

Pearl of my heart, your queen has been occupied with other matters this week. For example... (Note: this links to my reel, which may take up valuable ww'ing time to load. I'm just saying, these things take some time to put together and upload.)

EDIT:X'd with Boro and Nog.
EDIT2:Explanation.

See? You're not even considering it a theory, anymore - you're assuming that it's fact. Just trying to prevent you from getting egg on your face (again). :)

Edit: X'ed with she who puts the moon's quiet beauty to shame.

N.B. Why Lottie was so keen in revealing the Day before her "dream" was possible? Because she got to know it that Day and she had a chance of a lifetime to get this extraordinary-role executed for her the Night to come - unless she was lynched (which was possible I think?)! So she went and revealed to be a seer knowing full well she had the secret role so there would be no real seer to contest her revealment and to make herself live to do it (as the ranger would protect her from the Night kill with such a revealment)!

EDIT: Added bolding...

"It might (very well) be" = absolute judgement? :rolleyes: :p

No, Nog, the part where you say "to hide her real role". We're getting into a battle of semantics, though, so I'm going to drop it. *sigh*

I don't think so, we're trying to figure out the specifics of a certain role. Obviously he's not going to come in and confirm whether you are right or not, but if he expects us to stand pat and not try to figure out what his secret-role was, than he should never have created a secret one. (No offense met Legate, I'm just against stiff meta-reasoning muzzles, it verges on reminding me of PC, which often causes the death of history and historical context :) ).

If I start a sentence with "It might be that..." it does mark everything said thereafter in that sentence as a possible thing to my ear - and not absolute. Maybe English doesn't work like that? Finnish works like that.

I think it's wise to cut short with semantics though, not to say cut off with "battles" on this... :rolleyes:

++Sally Same reasons as yesterday... Not a fan of this two person game at the moment... Guess I'll see how it pans out...

Cleaning update if anyone cares ;) Almost done 2-3 more hours oughta do it!

I seemingly have used quite a lot of time with this idea of a Birthday dreamer... but I think it is a thing we should actually think about, especially with what Boro says about Lottie acting differently after gaining her status... I'm going to check back on it to see if I get the same feeling from there. The thing that I noticed while searching for her wordings was, that on the Day she revealed Pitchie she immediately had a lengthy analysis on Lommy ready deeming her quilty, and I think she has sticked to it ever since.

On another thoughts I think Lommy's defence was fiery and personal enough to make her look better to me. Even if I think she overreacted and even if I know it's not once a wolf has wrestled herself out from lynching with getting personal... And sorry Lommy, I had totally forgotten your votes on Mnemo on the first two Days (as I said I was in a hurry just trying to see for something that would make sense to me what you were doing there in the end of the Day). Not that these things make me think you're pure as an angel they actually lessen my suspicions on you quite a lot. Not to speak of that band-waggon that just appeared from nowhere in minutes...

Also what Nerwen said about Bes being a possible panicky wolf-cub. I was actually confused as no one seemed to react to my suspicions on Bes yesterDay...
If my theory of the Birthday dreamer is right that might be a wolf-cub trying to get a "seer" lynched - and then she might have changed into an ally the coming Night, which would be quite ironic but not too far-fetched anyway... :)

The way you've phrased that sentence, "might be" seems to apply only to Lottie wishing to give the role a name.

Anyway, I have to go now. I'm definitely not ready to vote yet, so I'll have to risk not getting back before the DL.

Replying and reading at the same time...

Nogrod, that is a scary theory, especially as it kind of makes sense! Because then Lottie could've revealed the Day before and just tell half of her role... and then she really would've had to give us a dream (and maybe she wasn't allowed to pm with her fellows yet?) so she saw no other option as telling the trust that she dreamt of Pitchie (also that was quite an ingenious way of earning out trust). If I may say without being jumped on, that really explains her single-minded and unreasoned voting against me Day after Day - very easy for a wolf, an innocent would maybe think more. Aiee... I'm tempted to buy this theory but I probably shouldn't, at least right away. Hmmm... I need to think more.

I understand, but I was merely offering a compromise, sort of.

I know! But the difference is that Mac was guilty back then and I'm innocent now. ;) It might be presumptuous to say, but I wouldn't have been so sure if I had been right: I've never been as sure of anyone's guilt before or after that (that is, without universally acknowledged heavy evidence). I won't be wanting any apologies (it's just a game), except maybe for stating that there are good reasons to suspect me because I simply can't see any.

Was that a joke that I missed? Legate's birthday is in July.

When did you start that too? *deep sigh*

I mean, this is really puzzling. I don't simply get where is all the suspicion against me coming from. I can't see anything wolvish I would've done, (nor why people don't see my points about why it's unlikely I'm a wolf). If you lynch me toDay, I advice to look at the suspicion bandwagon against me very carefully: I'm pretty sure you will find one if not two wolves there.

Anyway back to Lottie birthday dreamer issue - I think it would actually be quite likely Legate used the original role. And as for people changing behaviour towards Lottie after the Nigth she dreamt, that could mean nothing, because it could mean they didn't get to PM or even know her role yet then...

..am I really believeing in this guilty birthday dreamer thingy? Oh my. I'll be off for a while and think about it and other stuff, like for example who are our remaining wolves... (speaking of which Nogrod is playing quite a game with all this birthday dreamer stuff if he's a wolf...)

I was mostly operating under the assumption that I agreed with Shasta, that I wondered since Pitch and Mnemo were after eachother, I doubted if Pitch would throw out another wolf like that..."Here Lottie. Look at Bes." But if Legate's kept the basic premise of the Birthday Dreamer, turning into whatever role of the person she picks, than that changes how I feel about Bes. Particularly with now the defense of how you bringing this up doesn't make sense, when Bes was quick and adamant about rejecting Lottie's claim being a limitted-seer before.

I'm sure my switch looks suspicious too, but I've been presented with a view about a different role I hadn't even thought about (nor heard, but it sounded similar to the mytho-maniac). It just looks really suspicious that now you (Nog) proposed something that supported Bes' not believing Lottie's claim, that he's had a sudden switch.

In my opinion, whether you are right or not, today is our best shot to find out. If you are right (meaning we have 3 wolves and not 2) we don't absolutely need a wolf today, but this gives us 1 less day than I thought we previously had, making our situation more desperate.

If you are wrong, we still have 2 wolves, and that Lottie was telling the full truth about her role. Since it's been thoroughly discussed this is something we need to find out.

We know Lottie is not the Ranger or the Hunter. She is either a wolf due to the Birthday Dreamer role, or an innocent. It's worth the risk to find out for sure today, than to mis-lynch (or drag out) one of our gifteds. Then to also be stuck in the same decision the next day, because with all this talk about it, if Lottie is innocent I doubt she will end up killed by the wolves now.

If clarification is needed...we're going to need to find out about Lottie today or tomorrow, the best case is to do it today.

I will be back before the DL, whatever is decided about Lottie. I will not vote to lynch Lommy. And before anyone tries to turn the tide on sally, I will not vote for her today either.

If Lottie is not a possibility. I will vote for Morsul, since he asked for my reasons to suspect him, but did not respond and left. Or for Bes, but most of my suspicious feelings about Bes revolve around Lottie.

Back for the rest of the Day. Can I get a vote count please? *pulls out cute!face* I'll go catch up and see what I can find. Back soon!

BORO Oh I missed that paragraph...
Hmm... yes wolves did defend my vote... and it was for an innocent... as for the vote for myself... well it was either that or shoddy votes against some one else which would also look bad...

as Mac would say fair points I get it...

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I'd just like to take a moment to point out the flaw in not only Morsul's logic but....well, in general. (Which isn't to say you're not a nice person, dear, of course.) He'd gotten on me before for too often saying I couldn't be here. Notice how Nerwen does much the same (which I won't be covering at this time) and he just let her pass with it. Also, his anaylsis is just quoting her posts (and not even!) and summing them up for us. No opinion of his own, no nothing. Meta banter, telling us of real life, and then an analysis that is no sort of an analysis at all, which despite finding me guilty for doing something he has passed Nerwen over for. This=wolvery to me. Either that or just plain awful logic.

So I hate that the Downs won't let you quote a quote within a quote (at least the easy way) but this is the part about Lottie's role. This has been discussed a lot toDay and I think it has a fair point. She could have taken on Pitch's role (more or less) after he died. However, I don't think this is likely as if that was the case the hunter (or at least a good hunter) would have come out by now to say "Hey, my list is still ordered to be the same length. Something ain't right, people!" Certainly this would have been my course of action and I believe any other hunter would do the same so I don't think that would be the case. However, to be fair, she could still be evil; perhaps after killing Pitch she became a cobbler? Bah, that doesn't make any sense. I'd care to leave Lottie alone for a bit longer; not too long necessarily, but there's just too many opinions on her and too much we don't know to lynch her at this point in my opinion.

See my commentary above. It could be possible Legate lifted the role yet left it up to Lottie to decide which side she was on (Mith had the same option in my game, where once she had completed her task she could decide her permanent alignment) or he could have made something completely different.


All in all I think this discussion of Lottie is beneficial yet also wasted; the only way to find out what she is or is not is to lynch her, and frankly I'd like to lynch a better candidate toDay since I don't have the time at this stage in the Day to look at everything regarding her in-depth. I'm not saying that I trust her completely nor that I think she is evil, but I'm torn enough on the subject of her honesty and allegiance that I don't think it's a good idea to kill her toDay.

Also, I concur that Bes has looked exceedingly wolfish toDay and in general concerning Lottie. (Why, Lottie, you just may be the talk of the village for Days to come. How does that make you feel?:p)



Surprisingly I've not x'd with my last post but I suspect I will with this one so I'll get back to reading. Hopefully the silence means I'll get that vote count I asked Santa for. ;)

Porgy and Bess... erm... Lottie and Bes... part 1

Lottie says on Bes...

D2

D3

Votes Bes.

D4

"Reveals" Pitchwolf, gives a Lommyanalysis... ending with
But here comes the change (Like immediately after)! (bolding mine)

Later she mentions Bes only:
Which it is...

But yesterDay or toDay... no mention of Bes at all...


So Lottie really is after Bes on D2 & 3, but after the crucial Night she backs away from him using Pitchie's odd suspicion (was it a suspicion after all?) as a ground for it. And now she has nothing to say of him?

So Bes being an original wolf and Lottie turning into one on N4 would fit perfectly.

Nog: Forgive the personal and completely stupid question (as I'm too lazy to check) but was your birthday at the same time as Lottie's dream Night? Or was it another date?

Content my Dear Sally content... which for the record today at this point is far better... nerwen has some posts about being busy but the posts she has seem to have more input and opinion...

The only reason I voted you today is I'm not a fan of either of the top candidates and you are my next choice(For the record your wolfdom is going down today) Also I'd like to point out my analysis of Nerwen is a bit biased because she shares a few votes and ideas with me... Not exactly a good reason but...

I think it was the next day (December 5th - as mine was Dec 4th...). If you think that important to know.

Which for the record toDay I've not even been on because my internet's shot. And I'm glad you realize that agreeing with someone does not ensure their innocence. Quite the opposite in fact....


Blah. I'm trying to decide who to vote. Bes looks so bloody awful too. *is torn*

Not exactly, but given....erm, the point is that since there was a birthday dreamer I was trying to decide if the Night was specifically chosen and I couldn't remember if it was on your birthday or not. Being silly, really, but I thought it interesting.

Sally True You haven't posted much but what you have feels fuller to me than your earlier game posts...