Oh, yeah, duh.

++Izzy

--Izzy

++Izzy

It's a matter of principle. I once lost my job over refusing to wear a stupid hat, you know. Went vegetarian because my brother called me a hypocrite. Etcetera, etcetera. I'm a matter of principle type person.

On the off chance that Rikae isn't being truthful, I won't be able to deal with the knowledge that I didn't pursue reasonable certainty when I had the chance to do so.

I've been convinced of you since this morning, and suspicious of Izzy for a couple days. I really don't care which of you dies first, as long as you both go.

Probably cross posting with 83 people. :rolleyes:

Fea, how can you retract when you haven't already voted, eh? Tricksy...;)

Gah - never mind, you did. And I just posted that. :rolleyes:

My point exactly. Ideally, and this is THE ideal because it can't happen, we could PM during the Night, but since you've not dreamt me this isn't going to happen. The only reason I would have suggested that is because I would know whether to hunt player X. That didn't make a lick of sense, did it? Blah.

Basically if we kill an innocent toDay the game's over. Our best bet is Izzy, as it's the only guarantee.

By the way, come Night fall I'll tell you all who I'm hunting. I think.

I voted at like... dawn. I was at work this morning.

Seriously. Way at the beginning of the day. I voted, then said Dury had to defend herself.

NM. You noticed.

So we have

Fea-->Durie (locked in)
Durie-->Izzy (locked in)
Mnemo-->Brinn




A thought. What happens if Izzy gets magically de-lynched again?

Our secondary candidate better be a pretty good guess, that's all I'll say.

RE Sally:
 

Oh godz...

I really don't want to think about our kill not dying properly.

*headdesk*

Yeah, sorry. I just had to bring it up. Best to cover our bases, after all.


The duck's pretty much sacked out for now. I'll wake her if we need her but otherwise I'm letting her crash until shortly before deadline.

I totally just read my own post as "the duck's pretty much snacked out for now". Yum yum. :smokin:

Unless she is lying.

Why do you all assume she is telling the truth? Trusting the first reveal that comes along is how games get lost.

Is toDay really our last Day? I thought we still had toMorrow... :confused:

By the way, and I know this sounds weird, but there's obviously still more going on here than we think, so let's not take too much for granted. (i.e. why I got changed over, why Izzy didn't die when we tried to lynch her, etc.)


I had plans for this evening but they completely fell through so I'm kind of feeling down. Most likely I'll be off for a little bit but then I'll be back. Just need to do a friend a favor and don't know how long it will take.

Hun, if you know something, now is the time to tell us. As in right now, before any more votes get locked in.



9 players, 3 counting bad, 6 counting good.

Lynch an innocent, 3 and 5. If there's two night kills 3 and 3, in reality 4 and 2. We're screwed unless both baddies pick the same person or they kill me and I take one of them with me, and even then. (that scenario is leaving Rikae out of the picture just for argument's sake)

Yes, I was going to state that.

Just a thought: If Rikae isn't the real WQ, what if the actual WQ was somehow responsible for both? It'd certainly explain some things. :eek:

Do you realize you are contradicting your own theory/statements?

True. But why hasn't she (and it is a she, obviously. Shasta's sexist. :p) come out?

Well then, perhaps you shouldn't be "locking" your votes. Listening to a Black piece is the worst thing you could do.

Probably because no one ever believes the second reveal... :rolleyes:

Heh. Maybe.



And I'm not locking my vote, remember? I'm a free agent still, darling.

Number crunching....sort of
 

Erm....so I thought I'd posted this but it just sat in a different tab for a while. Have at it, ladies.


9 players

Baddies
1 Black Queen
1 Black Knight
1 Black Bishop

Goodies/Others
1 White Queen
1 White Rook
4 Pawns (1 black, but counts as ordo in tally)

If we kill an innocent toDay, and two innocents die in the Night, we're down to odds of 3/3 and the game's over.

If we lynch and innocent and either Rikae or I are hunted and we take down a bad player, it's 2/3, with a cobbler so really 3/2 and the game's still over.

If we lynch a wolf or the Black Queen toDay (preferably the Queen so we eliminate a double kill) and two innocents die in the Night we're at 2/4, reality of 3/3 and the game's over as long as the black pawn knows who to follow.

If we lynch a black piece and either the Rook or Queen are killed at Night and take a baddie with them, we're at 1/5, reality of 1/4.

Of course, odd circumstances may include both 'baddie sets' aiming for the same piece or an incorrect hunt by either Rikae or myself, but those are some of the basic situations we'll find ourselves in.

Also keep in mind that we have two known innocents, assuming that Rikae isn't lying. Just saying.


Rikae, I suggest you hunt toNight. And sorry for being odd earlier; I didn't realize you could only hunt or dream in a Night, not both. In that case don't bother to dream me, use your power to help the village rather than save your sanity.


EDIT: I'm kind of retracting my 'Rikae should definitely hunt' theory, based on recent discussion. I just didn't want to do the post over when I realized I'd done it a while ago, so sorry if it isn't aligned to what we've been discussing or whatever.

But who said that the wolves and the Black Queen intend to team up to take down the village? How then would either team win?

I'm not saying they will. But both of them (queen and black team) have to eliminate the innocents to win. I dunno, it was just a possibility to throw out there.

I don't know what Dury and Izzy's roles are, but I fear if we lynch one of them, we may lose. :(

Assuming that Rikae's telling the truth, Izzy's the black bishop.


I think Durie, being the dangerous player that she is, would be a good night kill, so maybe she had to save herself one Night as the....well, the Knight?

Heck if I know.

I'm still not discounting the fact that you (Brinn) may be guilty.

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history). ;)

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

You have a point. I'm taking this from a 'baddies equal goodies' perspective, which I'm guessing is actually incorrect. Sorry, different style of game than I'm used to so my calculations are....well, cracked out.

That's the problem: you are assuming she is.

*sigh* I've been trying to help and hint at you for the past two Days, Sally, but you're just making things worse. You're the only one I know is innocent, so we really need to be on the same page here.

Well....let's consider this....

I've had you on my suspicion list since shortly after the game started and it hasn't changed. I've mentioned you as guilty in nearly every post and yet never voted you. Does this or does this not tell you something?


Tells you nothing? Good.



++Durie

C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories.:Merisu:

Ok, I went and looked at the rules, and didn't find anything. I never heard of a werebear counting as a wolf, but in this chess setup it might.

Getting the werebear now is our best chance... and if we don't get the other wolf, Izzy will be protected toNight (and maybe even toMorrow :eek:). But I see where you're coming from, Sally. I'm just the sort of person who prefers the risk with the bigger payoff over the "safe" route that leaves us with no leads. But I could vote for Izzy if needed.

What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day.

Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.

Very true. The Night bit, that is. I need to look at a few things here in a bit.

Okay, this is what I think.

Rikae and Fea are Black pieces of some sort, the problem is that I don't know which. I'm kinda wondering if Rikae might be the Black Bishop, but I'm not sure about that. I doubt she's the BQ though, as I don't think a werebear would risk a fake reveal, especially when they're not in danger.

Sally is innocent.

According to Kath's dreams, phantom is a pawn of some sort, but we can't know whether it's black or white.

By the way, Sally, what does the text under your avvie say? My eyes aren't so good.

Ah. It says "Ickle Phantom kills you nao", with "kthnxbye" written under it.

Bwahaha!

:Merisu:

A piece of information. Make of it what you will.


Kath's dream last Night and my hunt are the same person.

(Back to crypticness, I suppose. Oh....how....wonderful....)

Okay- I just got back, so if you haven't voted please wait for me to catch up really quick as I have no clue what is going on.

Everyone vote now! All on Phantom!



Everything is Phantom's fault toDay
The women's council has decided this way
Everything that happens is Phantom's fault
The women's council is also a cult!