Isn't it the GW's job to ensure our victory? Isn't one way to do that saving the innocent and pointing out the evil? And did you entirely miss the idea that Rikae may be a gifted acting under the GW's orders?

I'm saying that a Rikae EW wouldn't risk it. I think that a Rikae GW might. I think that any GW may very well use a gifted as an emissary to the village. It's not as risky as you think.

I knew who Gurthang was for Days, before I challenged him. In fact, I didn't challenge him until I was revealed. The GW may safely reveal and the EW won't do a thing abut it except try to guess the gifteds.

Oh my goodness. :eek:

This is certainly a very confusing turn of events... and none of it really makes sense to me at all. At this point in the game, the village is down by one gifted with Mac's death last night - we only have a hunter and seer. Against four wolves. So with those numbers, it doesn't make sense for the GW to reveal - it would make more sense to try and get another gifted in the roster. Especially since there's no dueling allowed until toMorrow. And again, why reveal to the EW when there's no way that the EW could have found out who the GW is without a reveal? So, no, this doesn't make sense to me at all.

At the same time, I can't think of any good motives to impersonate the GW either... there didn't seem to be any indication that the GW was going to be flushed out of hiding (unless I missed something in my rather cursory skimming of the last few pages). All it does is cause distraction and confusion - look at us all sitting here and debating what the reveal means!

Now, it would make sense for a wolf to try to cause this kind of distraction. I think that this might be the most logical explanation. The EW may have given instructions to cause confusion today - and I've seen some gifted impersonation in the past by tricksy werewolves, so this would fit the pattern.

I don't think there's any attempt to shield Cailin involved. Wolves are fairly expendable so long as the EW is around... And it makes no sense at all for the EW to protect a replaceable wolf with such a dramatic gesture, so I think that excludes a Rikae/Cailin wolf/EW combination. I also don't think they are both wolves because I still hold to the theory that the EW wouldn't necessarily tell the wolves each other's identities while the GW could potentially unscry one of them to become an ordo, and then end up with (at least part) of the pack given away.

So, after all that, I think that Rikae is probably bad to the bone because she's the one doing the distracting right now. Despite the timing of the reveal, I don't think it tells us anything one way or the other about Cailin for reasons given above. At this point, I'm very inclined to vote for Rikae. If she's telling the truth about being the GW, we can't lynch her anyway - and she'll still have tonight to give one last gifted - and we won't change the duel tomorrow if we confirm her identity. If she's lying, we've rid ourselves of another nasty wolf. But I'll lurk a little longer before casting my vote.

As I recall, I was the only one cally for Boromir's lynch on Day 1, until the seer, who was almost lynched, came forward and confirmed what I was saying. Stop taking credit for my work. :P

I find it amusing that most of the people who have raised my suspicions are the ones for lynching Rikae.

Okay, that does it!

Ever since Rikae revealed I've been trying to get people's reactions. I wanted to get reactions from Rikae especially, to find out more about her, but she went and left.

There have been lots of reactions to the reveal and the things surrounding it, but none have been truly telling thus far, except that I see that nearly everyone on both sides of the issue seems to honestly be trying to figure this thing out and is really using their brains.

But the time for speculation is over.

I knew from the moment Rikae revealed that she was not the GW.

Why?

Because I've been trading pms with the real GW since Night 1.

Last night I was suddenly told to switch my Hunter pick to Cailin, and told that at least if I died now my death would make for an awesome narrative. ;)

Lynch Cailin.

Yes, yes, I didn't really want to reveal when we're already down a gifted (we actually had a plan for me to fake reveal as the GW on Day 2 before we went and lost Volo :(), but I felt that I had to. The GW isn't ready to reveal yet and I certainly don't want the Seer to have to step up, so I feel that I have no choice here.

After all, we actually have a chance to cut the WWs down to three, and possibly even keep it at three during the Night if the scry goes well!

Lynch Cailin please.

Leave Rikae to the GW.

Leave Legate alone.

Yeah but I can suppose that Gifted Rikae wouldn't stick her neck out this far. Gifteds aren't supposed to stick their necks out during the day, their work gets done at night. Pretending to be the GW and voting for herself seems pretty reckless for a Gifted.

This platter doesn't look silver to me. I keep saying this, you keep being perplexed about my mistrust. It looks like a lead platter. That's why I keep finding subversive reasons for Rikae's actions.

Killing an innocent Legaate potentially leaves her with 5 wolves after the night is out. That's good for her, bad for the village. Besides, if she is the EW or a Wolf, the GW knows it by now. Who cares about the village. We're impotent. If she's bad, the person who matters already knows. Honestly.

[QUOTECurious: Why not Legate?[/QUOTE]

Because, Rikae wants us to, and since I don't trust her reveal. It does not seem wise, from the GW's perspective, to reveal herself at this stage in the game, and all my suspicions stem from the fact that it doesn't seem like Good Wizardly behavior.

This leads me to mistrust her and what she wants the village to do. She wants us to either vote for her, or Legate. But it seems that she wants us to go for Legate, over her.

Look at it this way. Bad Rikae gets us to lynch Innocent Legate. The village is down another innocent and hasn't caught a wolf. The Good Wizard can try to scry a possible wolf and get that wolf to turn, but who to scry? Rikae? If Rikae is a wolf, that's one less wolf. But if Rikae is the EW, then the GW gains that knowledge but doesn't get to turn a Wolf to an Ordo. Plus, the GW doesn't get to turn an Ordo into a Ranger.

Five wolves, no Ranger.

The GW is playing by Rikae the EW's rules, now, eh?

Plus, face it. If Rikae is evil she's probably taking a look at who doesn't trust her. I have a feeling this is what tp is talking about (and his conscientiousness is admirable) in his post about a possible motivation that he doesn't want to talk about. But if Rikae is indeed evil, she already knows her motivation so it's moot to hide it from everyone else. I already said it, before I got the idea that she was protecting Cailin. She's trying to flush out the GW! By making her reveal, and looking at who does and does not doubt.

Hey, okay, you're now going to say, "Oh, what, Di, are you the GW? Is that what you're saying?"

No, I'm just saying I'm not as stupid as my joking antics might lead you to believe, this little ordo doesn't like to blindly trust weird, unnecessary looking reveals. And the more people who don't openly trust her, the less easy it is for her to figure out who knows for sure she's lying.

My thought is that the GW is too canny to fall for this trap, and is pretending to believe her. Judging from the amount of people not agreeing with me, I'm hoping this is the case, anyway.

I've probably xposted with a lost of people. :rolleyes:

Oh for the love of.... I've cross posted with everyone since the post by Roa that I was responding to.

SEE? tp has revealed (well, if you trust him, oh, this is going to cause headaches) and that's exactly what an evil Rikae probably wanted. To at least flush out a gifted, if not the GW.

I have to read everyone else's posts now.

Aaaargh! I thought I'd post but now that I've read the thread this far I haven't got a clue. This is just too damn confusing. I don't trust Rikae, but I don't trust phantom either. I need to think. Back with thoughts if I ever get those. :confused:


EDIT: x-ed with Di's last

Oh good god. A whole another four pages while I was gone. :rolleyes:

Just checking in....in case anyone's missed me. :D I haven't read anything since page 17, so I'll be back in an hour or more.

Too many reveals in a Day. To reveal as the Hunter was a foolish move, Phantom. The EW can simply scry you and then kill you to avoid any danger. You should have revealed as something else.

Which is why I find your reveal to be the most difficult of all to trust.

I haven't the time to stick around now.

++Legate

Am I certain? No. I couldn't possibly be. But don't trust phantom's reveal. It simply is unwise. Furthermore, Phantom, unless the GW revealed to you, which I doubt, you can't know that Rikae isn't on your side. And if she is the EW, it's likely she'll hand us a wolf to make herself more credible.

And it wouldn't be the first time you lied about being the hunter...

Well, crap. Sorry I haven't been here, my mother dropped by my house for a couple hours....and I kinda slept in. :rolleyes:

Okay, I haven't trusted Rikae for a while now. She put words in my mouth (I didn't mention Legate in EITHER of my analyses of the others, at least not in detail) and she's way too....just odd. I'm going to go over posts, but for now I either want her lynched or....or something else. While I don't trust Phantom completely, based on my already bad impression of Rikae I'm more than happy to believe him.

By the way, I left my Cailin, etc. notes at my house. (Sorry, I'm a nutter today!) I'm going to head off somewhere in an hour or two so I can be in a proper place to get internet (i.e. a coffee shop or something, as opposed to my parking lot hehe). Bearing that in mind, I'll be quiet for a bit, but the last hour or so I'll be here in full force. And for reference, at the moment my first two lynch choices are Rikae and Cailin, in no particular order. On about your business.



EDIT: x'd with the posts since Gramma Greenie. Flipping eh, this is giving me a headache.

You had better freakin' hope so, since you elected to vote for the target of a known evil-doer rather than the known WW.
No it isn't! We have to get the number of WWs under control to limit kills! And I know a WW!
Ha ha ha! :D

Yes, and if you recall I was on the right side in that village. ;)

The GW did reveal to me- on the very first Night. We've been pming directly.

Don't know about the other gifteds like Volo, but with me that was the case.

PS No, I didn't know Volo was the Seer till after he was dead. So no, the GW didn't completely reveal everyone to me. I'm not trying to say that.

Ok, things are feeling a bit clearer now.
Phantom's been acting upfront and stroppy all game, even by his standards. Being the Hunter might fit in with that. Hmmm.

I'm going off to eat supper now, and will chew over all these events, as well as my food. Back soon.

Whom to trust? tp or Roa? (Rikae is practically a non-object since she ran away with very little explanation of herself.)

Well, I think it's obvious. Good or bad intentions, tp's been sharing my views on this whole mess and I'm not going to start disagreeing with him now that he's claimed special knowledge to make his case more credible.

Still, I kind of want to hold my vote, to see if I should vote for Cailin (who I want to vote for) or Rikae (to save us the ignominy of lynching a quite possibly innocent Legate).

It's not even 3 PM (three hours till the deadline). Oy vey. How much drama and arguments can we pack into three hours???

I love WW... even if the first day or so can be a little annoying with little to go on, by Day 3 at least there are heaps of drama to be had by all.

Well, the goal was for me to look ridiculously bold, as if I didn't fear a lynch much. That way it would be believable when/if I came forward as the GW.

There were several things that could have happened after that, but I'm sure that we will all get to talk about that plenty post-game.

Oh man this is crazy.

I don't trust either Rikae or TP (with you there, ALG). However, there seem to be more reasons to lynch Rikae than anyone else.

Regarding Celuien's point that the GW would be unlikely to reveal at this point, because the good side was down a gifted: wouldn't the GW just be able to scry up a Ranger toNight? How would revealing inhibit this action?

That said, I agree that there seems to be little reason for revealing as GW at this point in the game, and if there was, Rikae certainly would have given more explanation than she did - were she good. A legit GW would have been careful to reveal herself only when it was to the greatest advantage of the village, and, so far, I can't see much good that has come out of Rikae's reveal. This is the most persuasive point against her: that her "reveal" has NOT been helpful.

No you aren't Di. There is no ruling as to what people can or can not say and when, as long as they behave and do not insult others. Only things said that affect the game-mechanics in a straightforward fashion are your votes.


Another thing: ToDay I seem to be even less cabable of following the thread than yesterDay as Lommy and Greenie need to play (I only knew to answer this question after Lommy told me there was a question here).

I'll end the Day in time and as soon as I have the result I will disclose it but the narration may then take some time - as I need to read the Day first... :rolleyes:

Of course, Rikae did have to rush off all quick-like. I, for one, am going to reserve judgment until Rikae comes back and explains herself. Assuming she's back before DL. Time to sit back and observe the fireworks.

If you are inclined to lean towards Rikae's guilt, please lynch Cailin.

The fact is, I know she's a WW. I don't know what Rikae is for sure.

If she's the EW then we will have blown our chance of cutting the WWs down to three. The only thing we'd accomplish is revealing her, which the GW or Seer will do tonight anyway if we just leave her alone.

Lynch the known wolf- Cailin.

Leave Rikae be for right now.

Yes, but a reveal would make tonight the last night available since a duel is highly likely tomorrow... if there weren't a reveal now, there would at least be a full roster of gifted tomorrow, plus one extra night for seering/scrying. And there's the what if scenario where the one who's scried turns out to be a wolf, and all we get is the return of an ordo with no chance to fill out the roster. Does that make more sense?

And ugh. More reveals. My head hurts.

Why on earth would Rikae be the EW? That does not make sense. I'm not trusting tp, but I'm not claiming he's faking. I'm just unsure. The best course might be to lynch Rikae. She's either wolf, GW or hunter, and so we either a) lynch a wolf, b) lynch no one or c) lynch a hunter who takes down a wolf. We can't really lose if we lynch her, we can just not win.

If we lynch Cailín, it's a complete shot at the dark. We may (quite probably) get rid of a wolf, but we may as well lynch an ordo, a gifted or a wizard. Pretty much the same goes for lynching Legate.

I think we should lynch Rikae now and investigate this phantom-Cailín tangle toMorrow.


edit: xed with Celuien

Yes. YES! Celuien makes sense.

If we don't kill a wolf today, (CAILIN) the GW is force to scry her tonight to make her an ordo. The GW doesn't get to make a Ranger!!!!

If we kill Cailin, we're down a wolf and the GW gets to make a Ranger in the night!

Honestly, I find tp's claim to be the Hunter believable. He's been acting like he owns the world ever since Day 1, which does fit with the notion that he's got a lethal power and knows who the GW is. (Since Night 1). He's been consistent. Consistency is a good thing.

Lommy, that's just beyond weird. If you don't trust him, then he's faking. If you don't think he's faking, then trust him.

I do need to read everything posted so far very closely - I think a crisis does bring out the best or worst in people.
But I think most of the villagers I've seen post so far are feeling in the same boat as me - confused and trying to make sense of things. Roa and Lommy however have been a bit, well, off. The intellectual rigour I would expect from both of these ladies, if innocent, just hasn't been there. Hmmm, I say, again.

No, Lommy, don't you start this now.

If you believe me, lynch Cailin!

If you believe Rikae, you might as well just lynch me rather than Legate.

But I hope that I can convince you that I'm the good guy. Hold on one sec. Let me prepare a post that might help everyone think this through.

Oh, the irony.

the phantom = Good Guy

Let's think this through.

What am I hoping to accomplish if I am evil? I must be trying to accomplish something, right?

What are the possibilities?

1) Get Cailin lynched.

But would I really take such a risk just to lynch someone that there is no possible way I know their identity? It would be one thing if I knew Cailin was the Seer or something, but sorry, the EW and WWs don't know anything of the sort. It is obviously ridiculous for the EW or a WW to reveal just to lynch someone.

2) Protect Legate.

But that makes no sense. The only Evil player worth protecting like that would be the EW, and Legate can't possibly be the EW since Rikae's already said he's a WW. And you know good and well that another WW is not going to reveal himself just to protect another WW that has already been discovered. It makes no sense. (And even more obviously the EW won't reveal just to save an already discovered WW.)

Read those two points carefully. If you don't understand them, please ask for clarification.

It makes no logical sense that I would be a lying Baddie.

Period.

Lommy has been all over the freaking place since Rikae revealed. Either she'd boggled out of her mind or she's evil. Srsly.

I'll say. And the more I think about it, the more I'm seeing Rikae as the Evil Wizard, and Cailin, Lommy, and Roa as wolves.

Hmmmm... the fourth wolf... if I had to bet on it... would be Shasta.

phantom, however certain you were (or pretended to be) of Cailín's furriness, we others can't know that unless we choose to blindly trust your word (which I am not inclined to do as yet - it's too risky). I think lynching Rikae looks the best option now. Her role will reveal much of tp as well...

One option that has been discussed fairly little is that tp and Rikae were actually both evil. I don't consider that probable, I don't even see the sense of it (:rolleyes: ) it just popped into my mind while I considered my agony about the fact that I don't really trust either of them.

Well but the thing is, at least on my part, that I don't know who to trust. Therefore I think the lynch of Rikae is the best option as it will reveal most and includes the smallest chance of a fatal error.

Man, this is getting mad...


EDIT: x-ed from Di onwards

I would not be surprised to learn that Lommy had been scried into a wolf last Night following Aganzir's death, because Lommy's part in that lynching would render her exceptionally innocent-looking.

Concerning your two-point theory, phantom: what if your aim is to make Rikae's claim empty? Wouldn't it be quite a good situation for a wolf, if everyone believed him to be Gifted? Cailín might be a fellow you are sacrificing (following the EW's orders) in order to buy credibility in the village. So you tell us to lynch Cailín, and if we do and she turns out to be a wolf, then everyone has proof of your "innocence". Good plan, huh?

I'm still not decided on you, phantom; it could be as I described above, or you could be telling the truth, but since I can't know I suggest we lynch Rikae.


EDIT: x-ed with Gwathie

It's coming down to the following for me:

I'm pretty sure Rikae is a baddie. More specifically, I really think she's a wolf, since I don't think it makes sense for the EW to expose herself.

The question is if I think the phantom is an ordo pulling off a grand bluff or if I accept that he's the Hunter. That breaks into the following decision tree:

If tp is the Hunter, then Cailin is a Wolf, since the instruction to change the hunt choice may well have been the result of a dream - particularly with the level of certainty that he's displaying about her role.

If tp is bluffing, then Cailin could be a wolf or an ordo.

I'll vote for one of the two after giving tp's reveal more thought... right now I'm more certain of Rikae's guilt, but if tp had specific instructions, that changes everything. Like the decision tree up there says.

Must... think...

Well, I'm back.

I'm sorry I had to leave so abruptly. Anyway, yes, Legate is a wolf, and my seer dreamt of him. I didn't want to tell you what else I knew, because it would play too much into the EW's hands. I expected toNight to be my last night, and I wanted to make the most of it.

Seeing the reactions has certainly been helpful. Now, I don't know about Cailin - if you lynch her, you're most likely lynching an innocent, unless she is a wolf chosen for sacrifice or not known to the others. I've given you Legate, and tp apparently figured I already knew him and decided to try this desperate tactic. If you insist, at least by lynching me you won't do any harm.

Ok, that's interesting.
I've been thinking (if phantom is right) that it's Cailin that was turned last night.
But lets say that Cailin was turned the previous night. Then her "oh it was Eomer yesterday not me" thing would fall into place, I suppose.

Both Lommy and Cailin were on my list of 'new' wolves. I know that my scrying theory was challenged by some people - and I do see that it has flaws, in that many EWs might sit back and wait. But on the other hand, if you're assembling a crack WW team, wouldn't potential wizards be the ones to go for?
And why is Lommy worried that I was thinking like an EW? I said I was. To catch wolves. What's wrong with that?

Well, I am inclined to believe you being a Hunter, it would fit, as it was mentioned here by some, the more "hop-huaa" behavior of yours.

That's what I thought might have been also a reason. I also thought something else, but forgot it. Heck, what it was? Maybe I will remember.

So you know she is a WW? Or did the GW just tell you to Hunt her, well, that does not necessarily mean she is a WW, you know what I mean? Maybe it's just a suspect for a Wolf. With Rikae then, we would be sure (or surer) there is some sinister idea behind all of that, whatever she is. But I agree that we should agree on something. And right now... right now if you say Cailín, I may as well be persuaded to do so, but... what do the others think.

EDIT: X-ed since Di

Nope. That doesn't work.

If I'm lying then the true GW (Rikae in this case) knows it! So she will just turn me during the Night rendering the entire plan worthless, and also knocking the number of WWs down to two, which is plain dumb at this point.
HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO SAY THIS!!

If you are leaning towards mistrusting Rikae, vote for Cailin!!

That is the logical thing to do!!

If I'm the one telling the truth, then we have ourselves a WW! Lynch her!
I don't try desperate tactics. I try good ones. ;)

Sacred bovine!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

This is ridiculous.

Believe Phantom or not, he makes more sense than Rikae's "Let's kill Legate, I know for sure he's a wolf. Oh yeah, and I Nilp myself." (With love, Father dear) If you are POSITIVE he's a wolf, you kill him! After that last bit about her seer dreaming my sweet Legate, I'm even less likely to believe her. *bells going off! bells going off!*


She's lying, I'm almost positive of it. EW or puppet wolf? It's hard to tell. But either way, I'm sure she's evil.


By the way, if she is the wizard, yes if we lynch her she doesn't die. But that would only prove she was a wizard, not the GW as she is claiming.



All right, leaving again (apologies. it's just so flipping hot and I can't afford to leave my car running for a long time while I catch up and post). I don't know if I want to lynch Rikae or not, because if she's the EW she won't die. I'm still up for a Cailin lynch, although I'll talk more about that later. Dunno for now. Back later. (Sorry again guys and gals!)

I know - great, isn't it?! :cool: I'm so glad all this happened on the weekend when I was around properly to enjoy it.


It's this sort of speculation, Legate, which leads me to suspect you really are innocent. (Aside from the bloody rudeness :rolleyes:) I mean, if you were a wolf, you wouldn't care whether we went for Cailin or Rikae.

Phantom could also be lying just to cause confusion.

Rikae's return kind of ruined everything. Her tone seems quite honest... yet lynching her might still be the best choice....

Because you're doing it in such extent and it seems like coming very naturally to you - as if you had already pondered those things...

In that case, why not kill me? Scrying me looks kind of too obvious. Maybe I shouldn't say this, though, since I was half-expecting to be scried by the EW. :rolleyes: Personally I believe I was left unkilled and unscried because Mac might have been protecting me and because some people believed I and Agan were in cahoots and thus I would not look that innocent toDay even as Agan was proved a wolf.


edit: xed with phantom, sally and Lalaith