i guess 8,641.5

Random guesser here

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NOTICE - NOTICE - NOTICE

The time for guessing has passed! Now we just sit back, chat, watch, and wait. No futher guesses will be considered, sorry if you missed your chance.

AND

Any above guess post that is shown as having been editted after April 21st, 2002 will not be considered. Do not try to get tricky, you are stuck with the guess you have or none at all.

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Just an update: Exactly 4 months after the initial post of this thread, the forum has grown from 2300 to nearly 3800, a gain of 1500 members.

My guess is 10000. I don't know why.
Also, I don't think the prize for the winner was ever settled on. How about a date with Lush?

PS I think I should be allowed to guess because I wasn't even a member when the guessing was over. I probably won't win anyway.

[ August 02, 2002: Message edited by: the phantom ]

Mhoram Said:
Aww Mho thats a shame. I was going to change my guess to 6.000 too many!

5,250

hahaha you can't stop me i guess 7,865 hahaha

but hmmm thats interesting.... the topic was not closed as stated so who ever wants to can make a guess interesting....hmmm...

[ August 02, 2002: Message edited by: Lady_Báin ]

See what I mean?

They can guess if they want, but the only ones that really count are from before April 21, 2002. Like I said, if people can guess and guess whenever they want, it totally throws out the point, as getting closer to the mark makes the guesses easier.

No matter how big this forum gets, here will be the amount of people with a) knowledge and b) something to say.

TOO BLOODY FEW!!!!

Same goes for RPers who are willing to play something besides Elven shieldmaidens.

Too true.

Anyway, if I could guess, I'd have to say around 3800 now.

BUT I WASN'T EVEN REGISTERED ON APRIL 21ST!!!

Hmm....I think that I will go with 8011

What do I get if I win, a DVD pack of all three movies??

[img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

[ August 06, 2002: Message edited by: Davin ]

You get the satisfaction of knowing you are a good guesser. [img]smilies/tongue.gif[/img] Congrats!

It is already halfway to the number i predicted. Soon, very soon, the forum will come crashing down in a hellish inferno, or not.

You could pay BW to periodically delete one-post members in order to keep the number closer to your guess [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

Update time. Here are some stats.

*rounding up one day to the next month*

April 2002: 2300 members
August 2002: 3800 members
November 2002: 4800 members

the number of members more than doubled in 7 months, wow.

about 14 months until ROTK is released in theaters

so at the pace above, there will be 9800 members at that time. We shall see.

Sharku feel free to correct me if my math is fuzzy anywhere [img]smilies/smile.gif[/img]

Hey, I realized I have the highest guess, so if the number goes over 12,000 I automatically win wohoo!

This isn't the price is right, closest over or under, so don't count your winnings yet. Quickslash guessed 9764, so if the rate from the past 7 months were to substain itself, he'd be almost dead on.

Edit: Wait, I see, you're right, if it were over 12,000 you would be the closest no matter what. doh.

[ November 27, 2002: Message edited by: Mhoram ]

Since admin until now has never deleted members who have never posted, it will pretty much invalidate this entire contest.

When registering, your password is sent to your email address. If you mistyped or used a bogus email, your password will never get to you, thus you can never post. Unless admin intervenes, that username is in limbo forever.

Some people like to register their handle in every forum they can just to stake their claim, even if they never plan to post there. Banned members can register with profane names just so it appears on the forum summary and they can get they petty revenge. Novice users often use an incorrect email address, only to register multiple times before they get it right. Some lame people just register and then forget all about the site and simply never come back.

Since anyone can register as many times as they want with bogus emails, the totals can get padded quickly. A couple people can add over a hundred bogus members in an hour with a minimal effort. A few losers with a free weekend can jack it up significantly!

The only way to prevent bogus registrations is to ask admin to remove them.

In my own admin duties, I remove any members who haven't made their first post a month after registering. Once they post once, I know they are a valid user and they are in for life.

There are probably hundreds of bogus members now. If admin were to remove them, it might seriously change the growth curve and I'm sure everyone would change their guess!

Not even a nod of reconition to a fellow Steven Donaldson fan? You know he's working on the Final Thomas Covenant Chronicals? He's already done some public reading. Linden Avery is in it for sure, and most likely the Unbeliever himself. Can't wait.

Have no fear, even with the reduction of the actual member number we have undertaken, the contest can still perfectly work, since the 'internal' UBB number counts registrations, not actual current members. We will just have to use that number then for judging the winner (me).


Quick update: New members on:

11/25: 9
11/26: 19
11/27: 8
11/28: 5
11/29: 9
11/30: 10
12/1: 12
total: 72

[ December 02, 2002: Message edited by: Sharkû ]

If you look at the NEWEST MEMBER on the front page and click that person's name, you'll see their registration (Member) number.

We are now at 5111

So.... Who won?

I have no idea.

Still waiting for ROTK to hit theatres, Galadrie1. Last member number that I saw was 6437. There are eleven or so months to go. If there are 878 new members in that time, I'll have been spot on. Um. Oh well.

[ February 05, 2003: Message edited by: Rimbaud ]

Oops, sorry, I thought it was only until TTT. [img]smilies/rolleyes.gif[/img]

[ February 05, 2003: Message edited by: Galadrie1 ]

I only joined less than a month ago, and ther's already about 700 new Members since then. [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img]

Just wanted to check. Does anyone know if there's a capacity limit or anything, or can the BD just go on accumulating new Members ad infinitum?

Well here we are, one year anniversary of the original post for this thread. Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

In 12 months, the number of members has more than tripled. There are a little less than 9 months remaining until ROTK hits theaters. At the rate of growth for the past 12 months the number of members would just break 11,000. Guess what number Sharku picked? 11,000. [img]smilies/eek.gif[/img]

9 months and the winner of our little game shall be known.

10467 was my guess. It will bring me the prize [mad laughter]

7308 is the number of the newest member.
And thinking that it is more than 8 months left...I will not win. *sniff*
I was *so* sure I would win I was already celebrating! [img]smilies/wink.gif[/img]

Alright, yet another update. Just under 3 months to go till the Dec. 17th release of ROTK. Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

Sept. 26, 2003 - 9,115 members.


And, unless I overlooked someone, here are those that still have a chance to win:

Bruce - 9,242
QuickSlash - 9,764
Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

It's really going to come down to the wire, good luck to all.

**P.S. On a personal side note, I think you may again see me around here on a regular basis starting early November. That includes the chat. I look foward to catching up with everyone. -Mho**

I told you that pillow you distribute as a prize will be mine [img]smilies/evil.gif[/img]

as for today, the newest fellow (Buldolf) in the right upper corner bears number 9386

Live update:

9523

One month left update: 9580

Our game that started 19 and a half months ago is almost over.


Still in the hunt:

QuickSlash - 9,764
Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

we'll end up tough, I reckon

live update:9692

One week left!!

Update: 9770

Ahanarion - 9,864
Telchar - 10,007
HI - 10,467
Starbreeze - 10,600
Sharku - 11,000
Dwarin - 12,000

Ahanarion looks like a lock unless we have a huge burst of new members. No cheating Telchar [img]smilies/biggrin.gif[/img]

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The time has come to announce a winner!


Here are the stats:

October 18, 2001 - 500 members.

March 31, 2002 - 2,300 members.

July 31, 2002 - 3,800 members.

October 31, 2002 - 4,800 members.

March 31, 2003 - 7,273 members.

Sept. 26, 2003 - 9,115 members.

Nov. 18, 2003 - 9,580 members

And finally, our newest member:

PrincessOfMirkwood
Ghostly Wanderer
Member Number: 9,848

And the winner is....


Ahanarion! With an amazingly close guess of 9,864! The game started March 31, 2002, 20 and a half months ago, what a guess!

Congratulations Ahanarion, you are the object of envy by all!

Well, it was a long and somewhat amusing game, I thank everyone for their participation. Enjoy the movie and merry christmas everyone!

Moonmaid, member Nr. 10,000 registered today - congratulations!

I still feel I have won this sofa in a sense, you know. Remember my guess - it was 10,400. Today's newest member proudly bears 10,428 on her coat of arms, another thing being that RoTK was shown on January 22 in Georgia. I should have made show latitude correction [img]smilies/tongue.gif[/img]