Reduce our small chance of nabbing a wolf to no chance nabbing a wolf...

I think not.

The vote is the one powerful tool we as a group have; if we give that up all we are are meaningless numbers. Yeah, we might screw things up, but at least we did something.

Plus as Roa said lynch votes can be really helpful for analysis, plus all that the wolves would have to do is give us a completely flusterworthy no-trace kill and we'd be back in the same pickle.

And if we want to translate this into numbers... the wolves (and, to an extent, the Ranger) already have control of who dies toNight. We control (and yes, there are wolves in our number, but in this case they are just four among many) who dies toDay.

So, interesting idea (and definitely, I think, novel), but you wouldn't get me at least to go along with it.

Roa and Mnemo: Duly noted.

I'm going to lock down in my cabin for while. Scream if someone gets attacked.

Translation: I have a persuasive speech to give tomorrow, extra early, and I have to give it completely from memory. I'm going to bed.

The stock room manager went a bit pale at the survival guide's statement, and retreated haltingly from the room, muttering something about checking the water inventory.
----------------------------------

I need to be getting to sleep, too. Hopefully I'll get back to the thread before night falls, but I'm not counting on it. Goodnight, Prison of Ice.

Here and reading.

All right, so most of what I've read so far can be boiled down to -

Boro vs Roa, on the subject of "The Suspiciousness of Being Reasonable".

Other than that topic, there really hasn't been much discussion yet, has there? My two cents- It doesn't make sense to me that the reasonable people should be suspect. If that's the case, anyone playing in an "unreasonable" style would just be given a "bored ordo" pass, and we've seen how well that's turned out. (Right, sally? :p)

(Also, this is an.... interesting deadline for me, in that (I think, anyway) it's 3pm for me, and I don't get out of class until 1pm, so... that's about when I can be expected to show up, about 2 hours before deadline.)

--------------------------------------

So it looks like we won't be going anywhere aboard this bucket of bolts any time soon. I'd appreciate it if one of our sciency-types could give me a reading on how thick the ice around us is likely to be - I'd like a way off this ship, if necessary.

I'll be overhauling the dogsleds. With twenty-four loyal, trustworthy, large Siberian huskys in devoted attendance... so don't nobody think of trying nothing.

A few short things, more later.

I would like to add one more thing into this "reasonableness discussion", namely that it's much more fun to play with reasonable and loud wolves than with silent submarines when one doesn't actually get to play at all as it's just second guessing.

Also I don't like Brinn's idea of not voting toDay. It's not only that the lynchings are our only weapon, but also the votes are one of the very few clues we have so not voting is kind of saying "I'm not going to let you read me". With this many players around it's probably a safe move.

And this. "Well, it seems quiet... I'll be back when there is more" is driving me crazy. Of course there isn't more if you don't do something! Why do some people assume they have the inalienable right to only talk after others have opened the game?

Thanks Brinn. :)

Whether you agree or disagree I don't care, but to threaten you will quit, don't you think that takes it too far Roa? If I think in this case someone "making sense" is wolvish behavior than glacier-melt as my witness I will. And to say we might as well randomly pull names out of a hat is ridiculous.

It is Frodo who when speaking of Aragorn thinks an evil servant would look more fair and vice versa, someone who is actually good could look foul. Take that literary philosophical rebuttal! :p

Again, did I say we target the reasonable, and only the reasonable? No. I'm pointing out the confliction between what Inzil said we should do.

The conflict with letting gifteds do what they do and we do what we do, is how bad Day 1s have been turning out. Gifteds have an understandable idea that by looking suspicious they are less likely to be wolf meat. What we do is lynch those who look suspicious, thus those we think wolves. Plus with 4 wolves, and they knowing who they are, this makes steering suspicion towards someone else besides one of them all the easier. See any major conflict there?

It is also just as likely, taking Professor Tolkien's advice, that a servant of the enemy would likely appear fair. And on Day 1, those who look like they are making sense, tend to get written off as innocent. Why is reasonableness a sign of innocence? It can be, but it can just as likely be a cunning wolf.

Thanks for pointing out you simplified it, but I wouldn't even call it an exaggeration. I call it all out misleading.

When did I backpedal? I've what anyone has seen happen before, that gifteds have just as much reason to purposefully attract suspicion as wolves have just as much reason to not want it. And that making sense doesn't make one innocent.

Both you and Roa are assuming that I'm on some anti-rationality crusade. I'm not. I'm speaking on Day 1, but too many times already we've been crippled on Day 1 because we simply "let the gifteds do what they need to do and we will do what we need to do?" But there is a major dilemma, because putting those two together has been leading to getting more gifteds lynched on Day 1 than wolves.

Hasn't any of your degrees taught you anything? :p

Some people are masters at creating ideas and love leading out with those ideas. Others are also masters at creating ideas, but don't have the confidence to lead out with them. While others still are great at taking someone's created idea, and rolling with it, building on it, and making it better. Others still aren't the creative type, but take all what has been said and reach their own mind. And finally others would make perfect executioners, they carry out the all the orders and make things happen, otherwise there would just be a few washed-up preachers endlessly debating around in circles....look at the greeks. :p

I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be. :rolleyes:

OK, it's wolves after all then. I'll accept our survival expert's word on that, she should know how to evaluate emergency situations.
*gets out of character*
I agree about not lynching reasonable people, especially not those who have made an effort to turn this into a serious discussion - which would be Roa, Mnemo and Boro, most notably.
I'd like to point out, however, that being agreeable is another matter. Truth to be said, I regularly find myself agreeing with much too many people most of the time, but we should watch out for those who seem eager to rub everybody the right way.

It wasn't Brinn but Bes who suggested that, but I think it's excusable in her, as she's new to this. A mere slip?

Sorry, but I have to be off again to (non-scientific) work. I'll be back about three hours before DL and hopefully find the time for a closer look at everybody then.

Well that's the thing, do we know if our ability to communicate with anyone outside this boat is even possible? Because if not then shouldn't we make plans now to get in contact with someone? I agree that we can't panic, but we need to be smart about what our options are.

I see your point now regarding Gifted survival strategy, and yes, that sort of thing has led to their being lynched. But I don't see any certain way of divining which we're looking at: a nervous Gifted, or a brash wolf. Do you have any ideas?

As for the notion of not voting on Day 1, I think it unproductive, and helpful only to the wolves.

Working Today so I'll be present later on tonight after work for now though....

"Frankly, understand we gave you extra funds to replace equipment as it became worn down. Replacing Deliberately smashed machines is not nothing we are about to continue dealing with. I suggest we find who did this as quickly as possible so we don't continue wasting Taxpayers hard-earned money!"

My only observations at this point are these..

Boro is the only one really jumping out at me.... mostly because everyone else looks fairly reasonable which according to him at this point means they should be lynched simply seems like an odd reason to vote for someone... although it is an interesting thought and seems more thoughtful than deceitful...

only time will tell

You know what? We know that, Boro. Reasonableness can't prove innocence... but it can't prove guilt, either. Wolves try all kinds of tactics.

I wouldn't so much say you backpedalled as that you haven't made it at all clear what you are proposing. You certainly seemed to be implying that we should lynch helpful people first and suspicious ones last. Then you say you're not saying that, so what are you saying? That we shouldn't all jump on the first person who looks a bit odd, as that person might well be gifted? That I'd agree with– however, it's a point you could have made a lot more clearly and concisely.

And this is true... but do you have a better idea?

What?

EDIT:X'd with Zil and Morsul.

The only interesting thing to talk about at this point appears to be Boro. I don't think he's a wolf, for the following reason. Wolf-Boro could certainly have accidentally put himself into the tight spot with #29, but he would know better than to keep on arguing a lost cause (lost not even necessarily because he's wrong, but because everybody disagrees with him, and you can already see a malreasoned bandwaggon looming). Wolf-Boro would have dropped it long ago.

This means that the actually interesting thing to talk about are the reactions to him. I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

1: none
2: Nogrod, disagrees without a fuss, which actually doesn't look very suspicious; Pitch's comment might be suspicious.
3: Inziladun, starting with "Huh?" and continuing; Nerwen, first merely picking up what Roa and Inzil said, then going into attack now (which would look innocent if her tone wasn't so darn sinister); Morsul made himself comfortable on the fence.

Roa is innocent-looking because, while maintaining the discussion, she puts herself out there and doesn't just stay around the corners. Of course, we're talking about Roa here - so she's probably evil anyway. Brinn's mild defense looks genuine. Bes's response (#39) is a bit awkward, but doesn't fit my infallible categories.

Mnemo, Shasta, and trom ignore the matter, though Shasta at least acknowledges that it's being talked about (which I don't know what to think of).

Although I've been and I am busy - so not necessarily much posting toDay especially as I'm sharing net with Greenie - I must say it feels so good to play ww again after missing the few latest games. *stretches* I've been just laughing at everybody's stupid jokes here and feeling sort of at home. Aww.

*cough* Now to business maybe. :D

Here's what I think of people this far:
Inziladun - seems okay enough, but knowing him, I wouldn't make quick judgements.
Mnemosyne - okay, here we go again, but she seems quite eyebrow-raising to me. Her posting seems to be bantering mixed with Captain Obvious statements to make her seem reasonable. Plus, she's been continuing the rather pointless "should be careful about gifteds" debate. That definetely doesn't make me feel good about her, although I must say that banter+Cap O.B. statements are an easy way for anyone to play in early Day1.
Boromir88 - is crazy and all over the place and sayiong weird stuff, but he doesn't really seem too bad; I think he would be a bit more careful as a wolf.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - not around.
Loslote - has not said much of consequence but is funny. Could be anything.
Morsul - no idea yet.
Brinn - seems like her normal self ie could be anything based on the evidence so far.
Pitchwife - I feel inclined to like him because he's funny, agreeable and makes sense (at times). But then again, especially as he himself pointed it out, I'm wondering if he's too agreeable to be good.
Nienna - I don't get why everybody considers her innocent. All I have seen her do this far is to make a few very Cap O.B. statements and indirectly starting the useless talk about being careful about lynching gifteds. And really, why does anyone need to say "we don't want to lynch any gifteds"? *takes a deep breath* Okay, I know I've suspected her on faulty reasons before, but at this point she does merit my suspicion.
Nogrod - another weird type. He is very nonsensical for himself: he popped in several times and most of his stuff is just banter. Normally he's more of the "cut the crap" sort, so I'm wondering if he's a wolf and more bantery because he doesn't really need to use his massive brain to finding wolves or enjoying his role way too much. Or both.
Macalaure - I hope is not making references at my relatively recent gifted performance. *glares* :p
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - that's me, that's meeeeeeeeeee! *walks to the airplane and is never seen again*
Nerwen - seems rather controversial. The weird thing is that she doesn't usually do that as a wolf.
Roa - seems innocent this far. Let's not lynch her on Day3 (or was it 4? :D).
Bes - I appreciate her effort to get a grasp of the game, but looking forward to more stuff.
Shasta - seems quite good.
wilwa - hasn't been around.
Greenie - is waiting for me to give her the net...
tromkehra - looking forwards to seeing more out of character stuff.


edit: xed with Maccalaure (would sound Italian, eh?)

Now this post I'm rereading more thoroughy since sleep apparently is less important than I previously was led to believe...

It has an odd tone about it... He(Or she, sorry name's a bit gender neutral) says basically the same thing about everyone but says it differently most important to me though are these ones-(I'll paraphrase)

Nog: not useful
Lottie: Nothing Consequential
Inzil: Says Something Says nothing

and then

Nienna: Trying to do something with nothing
Boro: Exists Go Him(Granted this has a sarcastic feel)
Pitch: Not much Feels innocent.

Nerwen is fairly ambiguous in his quote but these 6 have similiar descriptions but 3 positive and three negative but based seemingly on the same logic of not doing much.

Ahhkk I have 5 minutes before work but I'll be on later.

I agree with Mac about Boro. He was just stating something and then when everyone jumped on it he defended the statement.

I see the Nog I know and love coming back.

Lommy is suspecting me for absolutely no reason... this seems vaguely familiar :rolleyes: .... I'm going to do my best not to suspect you out of pure retaliation right now.

No one else stands out to me.

Edit: Crossed w/ Morsul

Sometimes it isn't recall my last bandwagon not a single wolf... *Ducks under bucket thrown by nienna*

and as for Boro everyone says he would be more careful as a wolf... I survived as long as I did in my first game with the opposite strategy go crazy"ducks again"... Boro's a crafty player don't rule anything out though for the moment not convinced either way.

Bes said she didn't want a vote... Now without a seer we wouldn't benefit at all from waiting a day we just lose another person. but she could just be getting her Sealegs HAHA get it we're on a boat... seriously why am I up I slept like four hours...

Honestly, though the debate about lynching/not lynching reasonable people has made people talk a lot and given us stuff to read, I can't help but see it as a rather stupid topic. We shouldn't take people as innocent if they make sense, but that doesn't mean we should lynch them, either. Being sensible has nothing to do with innocence or guilt. Neither has not being sensible. Therefore, lynching people based on making sense or not making sense is pointless. Debating about it is likewise pointless. Period.

I have a vague good feeling about Lommy, Brinn, Boro and Nog (!!!). I'm trying not to feel suspicious of people simply because of keeping up a pointless debate that helps us in no way (except, as I stated before, to give us stuff to read), but I could hazard a guess that there is at least one baddie there (namely thinking about Roa, Inzil, Morsul and Nerwen). Way too many people are under my radar.

I'll be popping in and out until DL, I have stuff to do but I can check and post regularly. Hooray!


EDIT: x-ed with Morsul

But surely voting records can be highly useful even if there aren't bandwaggoning wolves!

That is true, however I personally place less faith in them than other people... I mean especially Day 1 Votes people tend to make votes based on strange or small points. That being Said I understand Why people put stock into them. But looking back I don't see many cases where a wolf was nabbed based on a vote. It's a tough call...

I Just realized what the deadline is... 4PM by my time... I'm going to be at work... um... I don't really want to vote now because I only have a few suspects and they're no strong at all....

Just looked at the rules... DL says 9pm GMT making it 8pm for me... however day 1 started at 5pm so 4pm for me....

Should I add 24 hours to that first post or go by the admin thread rules:(:confused:

To state it clearly, DL is the time of when the Day 1 narration was posted (the one labeled "Expedition Journal - Day 1 Entry", the last post of mine on this thread, simply). So you should be able to read the time from there if you are unsure. Although I thought I have counted the DL time correctly.

Mac, even on your own terms that doesn't make sense... because in fact ignoring an innocent Boro would also be a possible wolvish response– I should say a probable one. At least one wolf nearly always keeps out of the limelight.

Meanwhile, it being Day One, peculiar statements are going to draw attention. There's not much else to go on, after all. Boro has been saying something perfectly obvious as though it's a revelation; sometimes he seems to be be saying we should lynch on that basis and sometimes not... and if not, I don't see why he's going on about it.

As for your saying I'm "attacking" him and being "sinister"... no idea where you're getting that from.

EDIT:X'd with some Morsuls and Greenies. Also the mod.

A thought to greet you with, as I bright the day (insert -yawn-):
(bolding mine, for emphasis)

I haven't played WW with Morsul before, but if this isn't the most prime example of wishy-washy fence-sitting I've ever seen...!

Ok so the Deadline(If I counted right Is While I'm at work)

So uh um Boro or Mac....

Boro Seemed strange for what he was saying and it was Suspicious but as read it again seems reasonable but then again b his own logic I shouldn't dismiss him because of it;)

Mac hasn't said much but the quote I talked about earlier still bugs me and has a uncomfrtable feel to it he used the same basic logic of not posted much for 8 people yet came up with 3 innocent 3 bad and 2 neutral...

boro mac boro mac boro mac.......


++Macalaure

Not just that one post he also calls Nerwen sinister which I never saw or thught so it felt like a tossed suspicion

He also basically came after anyone who disagreed with Boro.

I just disagree with this if he talked himself into a corner he could keep it up to look innocent More importantly if he Is innocent it would make Mac look god for defending him.

Not much but being forced to vote now....

Let me Explain, I believe vote records have Some value but some others seem to think they're the be-all end-all of reasonings...:p

They can be manipulated and distorted by clever wolves.

And nice to play with someone new.

Ok should have started work preparations 10 minutes ago... oops see you guys on the other side... maybe:rolleyes:

Okay, looking at that, I'll brave to voice this concern my wolf spotting has brought me to face.

Roa said...
That was an intentional "mistake". It just has to be.

So Roa tried to mislead us about her knowledge of the situation - and I can't see a reason what a gifted Roa would gain from that against the wolves at Nights as they would not start thinking she's someone they can afford to ignore from that. But a wolf-Roa might gain the edge in a possible tight voting if people thought she was not up to the situation...

If no one else screams a wolf toDay my vote will definitively go to Roa.

Why? If anything lupine, it looks more like one of those "counting" slips. But the thing is, there were originally going to be three wolves. How do you know she didn't just get it wrong?

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

Sounds as if you're saying anyone who said anything in response to Boro could be evil. Aren't you painting with a rather broad brush?

x/d with Nerwen and Nog

Hello all.

I found the jump-on-Boromir quite odd, because I could see exactly what he was saying. To answer Nerwen's concern about his stating the obvious, I don't think it hurts to remind the group that wolves are often out to look as normal and as reasonable as possible. The situation escalated, perhaps because the group was looking for something to argue over.

Tells me nothing about Boro but gives something to ponder over those who exaggerated his point.

Aye, Nogrod, soon as I saw Roa's counting-mistake I remarked: "intentional". Not sure what it means, though. I wouldn't be quick to lynch Roa because she brings a lot to the table in terms of discussion.

Mac seems tricky; Morsul seems a bit too slippery. I've got my eye on Bes too because her post about Boro was not so great (as argues by Boro himself).

I tend to think it's really easy for wolves to survive Day One, and that should give an indication of how I'm going to vote today.

Yes, but people don't always pay close attention to things, especially if they don't have a role.

Ironically, I agree with you on this point, because it doesn't typically help a wolf to be the center of a debate, and on a very unpopular side of the debate at that. If he had tried to drop it, that would have been more suspicious. On the whole, it's just a bad idea, and one that is dangerous to the village, but I don't think that's how he meant it.


*points to sig*


This is very true. Agreeableness and reasonableness are two different facts, and wolves tend to not want to make themselves lynchable by getting on everyone's nerves.

What? Huh? Really? First, you spend your posts using in character banter, and now you decide I'm guilty on a number slip? With all do respect, are you on something? This is the most ridiculous thing I've seen yet.

Also, Bes is male....

Edit: fixed quote

And I'm sure you'd call it equally safe if I were to randomly vote instead. :rolleyes: But at that point of the Day when it's too early to have the slightest suspicion, what else am I supposed to do?

I'm pretty sure Nogrod is talking about my own decision not to vote because it was still too early in the Day, even if I might not return.

But anyway, I am back now, for a short time at least (my participation may be spotty since I am at work). And if I have enough time to look back at some things and see enough to form a suspicion, then I will vote before I leave again.

I don't like the jump on Boro either. I personally found his message to make perfect sense, so I don't really know what the reactions are all about and for that reason, I would like to go back and take a look at those who did jump on him.

Also, I think voting for someone based only on what you think is a 'slip' is rather ridiculous. If you think that way, then fine. But have some evidence to further back up that suspicion before making the vote.

A note
 

Frantic busy (and completely rubbish) day so I don't know if I'll be voting. I just wanted to post this on the game thread so you all could see it. I'll do my best, but Mondays rather stink around here.

Also....ungrateful hacks! I do all this work to set things up and plan and then someone starts killing people? I don't feel the love, fellas, not at all.

I must agree that questioning after Boro's "gifted talk" was a bit odd - as Boro talked sense. And it was first Roa and Nerwen who made the questions - and they are two players who should really understand what Boro was saying! As a rule of thumb (which can be broken of course in individual cases) gifted needs to look a bit suspicious so that the wolves think they can get her/him lynched and don't "waste" their Nightkill on that person.

Accidentally (?) it was also Nerwen who popped up to suggest defences for Roa after I voiced my trouble wth her. So a piece of bold team-work?

Well, not necessarily, but worth bearing in mind.


Yes, Brinn, you're correct. I meant your suggestion that you might not vote. I'd say everyone should vote. If one has to vote early then do not vote random (if there are any real "random votes" - but throwing dices etc.) but use your guts or hunches. Not voting is not playing fair but sneaking.


EDIT: Means you as well Sally... :)