"Aragorn says the risk of snow lessens in the south, and at lower altitudes. Therefore it can be logically deduced that risk of snow is greater in the north, and at higher altitudes."

He didn't assert the storms occur more North, just higher up mountain level. Again, you're infering.

"were not thinking of risks." I didn't say they weren't, Legolas.

"Aragorn uses the word "risk" in the comment at the top of this post." Did I say Aragorn doesn't mention 'risk'? I asserted no one talked about 'risk' regarding the High Pass as a passage to use.

So the risk of snow must greaten in the north. If something lessens as one moves south, it greatens as one moves north. If the chance of snow lessens as you move any distance south, moving that same distance up must greaten the chance of snow. That is the nature of north and south. They are relative to one another. :cool:

Inference is not speculation in this case. To infer that a smile means good intentions is a speculative inference. To infer that north and south are exact oppisites and not exact places is not.

You said this while it was clear that Aragorn was talking about risk. You said "Misty Mountain passes" - not "the High Pass." If this was a misstatement, it's okay.

About arguments against heading west from Rivendell:
As it turned out the path might well have been clear if
the Fellowship had left immediately after the Council,
certainly Nazgul would have been a nonfactor, as was
quickly established (by a high probability) at the Council,
and I question using months to push that probability up
a bit by searching far to the north, south, and east, as
Aragorn etc. did- as opposed to leaving right away.

The point of encountering different cultures is a good one.
I've thought of it and it seems JRRT could have rearranged
things to cover almost all (for example, relocating Lorien
to an area in Andrast), then having the Fellowship attacked
and splitting up, the three walkers chasing orcs and Merry and
Pippin while Sam and Frodo go across south Gondor,
receiving aid from Imrahil (including crossing the Anduin).
This would still allow Aragorn's involvement in Rohan and going
on the Paths of the Dead and give Imrahil a much more
interesting/complex situation. However, it doesn't seem to
realistically allow for a direct (even if relocated) Moria
involvement. You'd probably have to cram too much into one area.

The overall point of water travel in a preindustrial age is that
it is much faster (and if deep ocean travel is avoided) generally
much safer then land travel, and coastal travel, at least to the
Andrast, would seem to fulfill those requirements.

From my own evalutations, I have come the conclusion that there was no direction which the Fellowship could have taken them that would been any safer or quicker than the others. For instance, going South would have taken them into Dunland home of the Wildmen, then there was Isengard and the very long trip through the fifes of Gondor. Going North you would have taken them either through one of the several dangerous passes crawling with Orcs, Giants and Trolls or into the Fordowaith, where many evil things such as Dragons lurked. West, would have been the very longest trip of course. Finally, East threw Rhun which would probably be the most dangerous route considering the evil kingdoms of Men that dwelt there.

In distance, perhaps. But west by elf boat, hugging the
coast south to Andrast would be much faster then walking,
and you could postulate some further help across south
Gondor by Imrahil.

If you're starting in the Shire, yes. If you're starting at Rivendell- which is whether the decision to destroy the Ring was made, then it's about as far back to the Grey Havens as it is down to Rohan, and Rohan to Mordor is about the same as Belfalas to Mordor- so even a fast sea voyage means needless extra time if you're starting in Rivendell.

"even a fast sea voyage means needless extra time if you're starting in Rivendell." Hear, hear! Longer than over the Misty Mountains, certainly.

Ah, but sailing from the Grey Havens assumes they leave
Rivendell immediately after the Council, without waiting
some months. Plus going by sea avoids going over the
Misty Mountains in winter and/or past Orthanc.

The issue that I have with the 'Sailors of the Ring' plan is not only could the story be a bit more boring, but it allows for Sauron to attack the Ringbearer more readily. All roads at that time were watched, and the Council guessed that Sauron would assume the Ring would go west, not southeast. Even if Sauron could not stop the Ring getting on a boat, he would at least know where is was. What would the nine on a boat do against the Winged Nine? Isn't the reason that Sauron is put off is that, at times, he's not too sure exactly where the Ring is and who has it? And knowing that the Ring is on a boat that will be landing somewhere in the south, Sauron may overrun the lower part of Gondor sooner and just wait for the boat to arrive.

As the FotR travel through Middle Earth, smaller battles of the war are fought, and our troop gains the resilience and experience that they will need in the end of all things. No Moria, no powered up Gandalf and a Balrog sits unfought on Galadriel's flank. No elfstone, no Merry and Pippin in Fangorn, no Gandalf in Rohan, no Paths of the Dead, etc.

No Gollum.

My wish is that the FotR were able to take an even more circumspect route so that we could meet more peoples and see more magical places, and had a chance to explore Moria a bit more. What would Gimli be like if they recovered Durin's Axe?

More speculation on sending the Ring to West here. I would like to repeat Mith's point, that the nazgûl didn't like water... ;) I would nearly pity them. :D

There is one big problem with going on the sea and that is the Corsairs of Umbar. Those guys nearly controlled all of the Bay of Belafalas.

"the Corsairs of Umbar. Those guys nearly controlled all of the Bay of Belafalas." Hear, hear! Thanks for mentioning that.

Surely it is documented that the Nazgûl did not like water, as the songs of the ever-vigilant Ulmo still ran within it. However, as we see at the Fords of Bruinen, when the Ring is near, the Nine will pursue it even if it means entering open moving elvish water. And if the wraiths were winged, they could attack the boat and not get their boots wet.

Excellent discussion and I'm afraid I can't add to nor detract from the arguments for going the northern route. I hadn't thought of it before. But, some have reasoned the topic from JRRT's point of view rather than the Fellowships. In that case, suppose they had gone through the High Pass and Merry and Pippen had never entered Fangorn Forest....

Edit: Oops. Alatar had already mentioned that. I missed it some how the first time through.

Never mind.

Besides the entire trip in general, it is interesting how the Fellowship never really had a plan to get throug each individual places.

Like Moria for example: If Every member knew they would have to skirmish some goblins, Gandalf might have said "Well, stick to your sword techniques, the hobbits need to stick close to use, Legolas will pwn with his bow, etc" But in every situation, it seems the just "wing it."

When they asked Aragorn about where they would be going after Gandalf fell, he knew they would be going to Lothlorien, but I remeber he said something to the effect of: "Perhaps Gandalf didnt even know what we were going to do." So maybe part of the reson to go to Lorien was to take counsel with The Lord and Lady. Every stage in the quset was taken one day at a time. Did this affect them after they chose the Fellowship in Rivendell? Because it didnt seem like Elrond would say, "Well, duh, your going though Moria", or the Redhorn Gate or High Pass.

Another thing that I wonder about: How did they propose to enter Mordor? Since originally the entire Fellowship was going to Orodruin, did they just assume they were going to "wing it" and sneak in through the Black Gate? Sureley they would have been opposed to the Cirith Ungol, but what about the Morgul Pass? And even though it is obvious that the Easterling Summer Camp was going on behind Mordor, was Time the only thing holding them back from going around the Ashen Mountains?

The CoE explained some of the ways they could not go, quickly dissmissing hiding the Ring, taking it to Valinor, or taking it to the Havens, but they did not talk about aking it to the havens to be taken to Mordor, and small variants like it. Little comments from Boromir about going through the Gap or around the Andrst were dissmised also, but was that really taken into consideration like it is here?

My question is this: How well did they plan their trip? Was Gandalf just going to improv along the way?
________
Ford t platform specifications

Improvise. He said something near the Redhorn Gate passage like "Let's plan only as we progress".

Exactly. I think that there may have been three determinants affecting the planning. One, not knowing exactly what they would find around any bend of the road, the FotR had to assess the path as far as they could foresee at that time. Like the crossing of the mountains - that was the plan until the snow and giants/boulders changed everything. Two, there were certain sanctuaries that were to be visited after some traumatic adventure (i.e. Old Forest -> Bombadil; Riders -> Rivendell; Moria -> Lothlorien; Black Gate -> Ithilien) in order to replenish the body and soul for the next stage/level of the journey(s). And third and to me most important, we mustn't leave out that seemingly infallible guide *stupidity*.

Think about it. It's stupidity that keeps Frodo from being found by the Black Riders, it's stupidity that gets Merry and Pippin into the hands of the Uruks, ultimately leading to the overthrowing of Saruman. It's the same idiocy that allows Aragorn to get Sauron to play his hand earlier than he may have wanted (i.e. Pip looking into the palantir), and where would Middle Earth be if Gollum chose to leave Sammath Naur before dancing a gig?

I'll leave the other examples to you to find.

I feel, That stealth was far more important than speed. I'd also agree with the question regarding Legolas's route to Rivendell. Also Two or three more elves in the group may have been useful. I would think 5 more sets of hands wouldn't have made the troupe burdensome of course I'd also think it interesting if the fellowship contained as many as the dwarves' company.

In the end though I'd say They could have taken alternate routes through the mountains or even if Gwaihir still was Lord there (Of course assuming they still had regular patrols) could have brought them over the mountains.

as for Dul Guldor, the ring had passed it by bfore in a FAR closer proximity when Bilbo went through Mirkwood in fact he Wore it in Mirkwood.

I don't read it this way. I interpret what Dain experienced as more of a sense of great evil within the Gates of Moria, similar perhaps to what Aragorn sensed when he passed into Moria. I don't think that Dain actually saw the Balrog, or even knew that there was one there. The Balrog may not even have been the only foul thing in the depths--another could have been the Kraken that guarded the western entrance to Moria (presumably this came out of the depths of Moria).

I think the best interpretation would be that the Wise knew that there was some great evil in Moria, Durin's Bane presumably, whatever it was. Not knowing what was there, Gandalf could not judge whether he would be equal to the task or not. Certainly Galadriel and Celeborn did not know that there was a Balrog there.

Otherwise, the northern route seems a possibility, but this is a choice made with hindsight. Initially there was even a chance of passing through Dunland until the Fellowship found out that Saruman was watching that route. The route over Caradhras would normally have worked, except for the apparent intervention again of Saruman. Going back to the northern route after the failure of these two possibilities would have meant a long trek back north, and then following a route that was virtually guaranteed to be watched by Sauron's servants. Merely because others passed that way earlier (for that matter, Elrohir and Elladan had passed over the Redhorn Pass) does not mean that the Fellowship bearing the Ring would have had the same results.

As well as other reasons mentioned, I think that this would also be useful because if they didn't know exactly where they were going, then it would be much harder for anyone else to know where they were going and ambush them there.

Yes, with also the implication that the obvious routes should be suspect--the northern Route, the Gap of Rohan, and the Redhorn Pass. Moria strikes me as a route nobody would have predicted...

I don't think the sea is a viable option. A ship is easy to spot, and an elven ship would be very conspicuous. The Corsairs would certainly intercept it, along with the winged Nazgul.

I think that part of it is simply literary adventure. And, we had to have an Evil that could be on par to Gandalf for that part of the story, which I am unsure would have been that plausible if they had gone another route.

And Moria is one of the best parts of the book.

Couldn't radagast have guided them through mirkwood? Also they may have been able to rest in Thranduil's halls for a bit to recover as well.

I wouldn't think bringing the Ring within the influence of Dol Guldur would have been wise.

If you recall, after the Council Elrond sent many scouts out; some of them went to Rhosgobel, but Radagast was not there. So that may not have been an option simply because they did not know how to get in touch with Radagast.

To be fair they kinda brought the Ring into the range of Dol Guldur when they left Lorien.

Well, they had the River for protection and rapid travel, which I think mitigated the danger. Going through Mirkwood on foot would have been far more risky.

A fair point, especially considering that even on the River they were unable to escape without incident.

Also, Galadriel seems to have maintained some kind of "cloak" of secrecy around Lorien as she contended with the powers of Dol Guldur. Something beyond the skills of her Elven archers guarding it's borders. It's possible, even likely to me, that she could extend this veil around the Fellowship, at least for their first few miles down the River, far enough to get them out of reach of Dol Guldur's notice.

It would have been great if Tolkien had Radagast helped them through Moria or something like that and escorts them to Lorien and then heads north back to his home, etc.

But that might have required substantial changes to the storyline. Though I wouldn't have been opposed to that, anything to give other wizards than just Gandalf parts in TLotR.

What's wrong with Gandalf being the guide? Not only was he the de facto leader of the Fellowship, he'd been through Moria once before.
Also, he had been the prime mover of the resistance to Sauron, since Saruman had effectively abdicated his responsibilities of on that score. Moving Radagast more to the forefront would indeed have required some notable changes, and I for one don't see the benefit of it.

Umm....say maybe Radagast could come to personally bring news of the High Pass being unusable, the Company ask him to come through Moria with them.....do you mean like reasoning like that or something?

Why would Radagast have been more knowledgeable about the High Pass than the people of Rivendell?
Gandalf's presence in the Fellowship s perfectly plausible, since the Ring had been his focus for a long time, he had been involved with its finding, and he was very intimate in counsel with the Elves. Radagast suddenly getting into the Company would have strained credibility. And why would we need more Wizards anyway? The idea was that of the Istari, only Gandalf had truly remained faithful to the original mission, which was the reason he figured so prominently in the story as written. Radagast did his bit in getting Gandalf to Isengard to bear witness to Saruman's treason. He then apparently went back to the woods to play with the rabbits. ;)

I think this is a really crucial point. Radagast's role in the narrative of the Wizards is important in my opinion because it shows that the Wizards' failings didn't just involve becoming evil like Saruman - it could also mean becoming reclusive and apathetic. I think it's important that after sending Gwaihir to Orthanc Radagast disappears. Having another overtly heroic wizard like Gandalf would, I think lessen his impact and reduce some of the book's potential suggestions about the desperate situation of "good" in the world.
I think the rather curious remark that Radagast could not be located later on is one of those devastatingly subtle points Professor Tolkien makes so effectively in his writing.

Rhod, I just can't see what this would accomplish in story terms– except, of course, to add a quite unnecessary extra plot complication.

I mean, Rhod: I do understand that from your point of view the "purpose" would be simply to get a Radagast cameo... but you see, some other reader might have liked Tom Bombadil to show up again, or Glorfindel (or hey, Arwen riding Asfaloth...) In fact, what you're talking about would be one of those writing placeholder things: "...and then they can be guided through Moria by [insert character name here]". That is, even if Tolkien had decided to throw in an extra character at this point, I really can't see why he would have, or should have, chosen Radagast in particular anyway.

Well maybe he wouldn't have been useful in Moria. The Balrog might have killed both R* & G* as opposed to just one.

Radagast in his limited appearances in the books doesn't really seem either particularly qualified for or indeed up for much in the way of adventure. He is not a traveller save at great need and scarpers just about the very second his message is delivered. His journey to the borders of the Shire was surely via Rohan so he quite possibly had little or no knowledge of the mountain passes. Certainly unlikely to know more than the elves who live in proximity or those like Legolas and Gimli who presumably had come that way.

And he had inconveniently disappeared.

The western side of the Misty Mountains was more discreet and given the sense that is given that the ring has some control over its fate maybe it was thought unwise to take it back near to the places where it had effected two transitions of owner. Maybe too fanciful. But certainly the Western route tooke them relatively directly between probably the two safest places in Middle Earth protected as they were by Vilya and Nenya as well as the inherent strength of Elrond and Galadriel. The route had been scouted by the sons of Elrond and the first part quite likely had a measure of protection from the Rangers who still had settlements in the Angle.