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I'm writing a post about Greenie now. May be a while.
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Actually, I have a few more things to say:
And as for my opinion on some people:
Also, I don't really like the Celuien suspicions. I mean, she only has 9 posts, which is hardly enough to begin to properly suspect someone from lynvhing. |
Celuien has already been modkilled, but I agree - all those who suspected Celuien the most (I'm mostly looking at you here, Rune) - how is it you can suspect someone of Elfishness when they've made nine posts? Definitely seems like the easy out to me.
Sorry for not being around, I worked all day. I'm not going to bother answering any of Lommy's allegations, as they basically come down to 'gut feeling', which is unanswerable (sorry, love, but they do). |
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Sorry that seems a bit random, but it is true. |
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I based my opinion on Celuien on what she wrote in her posts, it is the only thing I could do. If it strikes me as Elfish, then surely the only responsible thing is to suspect her! (even if she has only posted 9 times) |
Okay...so I WAS writing a post about Greenie, but then I lost it. *wry grin*
Should I start o'er? |
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something to consider for tomorrow...
If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).
That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst. Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people. So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day). The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive. If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf. So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan. |
What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?
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What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?
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As far as belief, you've just got to hope that the true Seer is more believable than the fake one. I mean, that's always the case in any village. It's just that I'm suggesting perhaps instead of drawing things out we go for a huge massive lynch and either win or lose. (I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.) |
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As a matter of fact, Downs Werewolf games are the only time I hear it. |
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Anyways I feel slightly better after looking at Steve's latest posts, so I am less inclined to vote for Steve this time around. (not ruling it completely out) That would leave me with Zil as main option. Followed by people like Greenie, Shasta and Nerwen. The last three is based on gut feeling or whatever you call it, their posts does not always seem genuine. . . then of course there was the points made by Lommy. (Yes I put quite a bit of faith in her) |
Anyway, just to make my plan a bit more clear, if you should wish to adopt it, ignore everything else I've said and assume that your three proven innocents are- Lommy, Kath, and Rune.
Gotta run. I'm not certain if I'll be back before the deadline, so just in case- best of luck everyone. |
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x/d with tp |
I will actually not go over Day 1 or the first half of Day 2, because I can sumarize it pretty well. Mostly what she did on Day 1 was bicker with Phantom and point accusingly at Sally, saying she looked much more wolfish than Lottie. She spoke very little about Lottie and she spent both her votes on Sally.
Day 2, she really ripped into Sally. Some of her posts were what I saw when I was trying to decide what to do that night. At the time, I trusted Greenie. As I said, it was only until today that I started distrusting her. Quote:
It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable. I, for one, certainly can't complain as I was the one who actually killed her. :( Throughout day 2, she seems to think that Wilwa is innocent. Good, good... at least she's consistant in disliking sally and only sally. She likes Nerwen Day1 and Day2. But Day3, she changes her tune. I don't like her reasoning against Nerwen at all. I've looked at the same posts, and I think Nerwen looks reasonably innocent. In fact, I think Nerwen is quite trustable...but that's just my own opinion. Quote:
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Here's what she said in response to Nerwen's, 'Why did you react like that?' Quote:
She proceeds to vote Inzil in as Rep, although she uncertain about him... And time is running so short that I'll post this even though it's not finished and maybe finish it in another post. |
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I really don't like the way phantom seems to want to hide behind his own (admittedly strong) personality as an excuse for his actions. I don't know that he's evil, but his reactions to being suspected make me even more wary of him.
I don't claim to know I'm right. I haven't had a chance to look at everyone toDay. I'm relatively certain Foley is innocent, and I feel a bit better about Steve now. The rest? Shasta is rather enigmatic. He makes me nervous for some reason, but I did like the fact that he challenged phantom. Nerwen has points for and against her Elvishness, and I always have difficulty reading her. Legate, ditto. Probably the worst thing I recall about him at the moment is the Cel votes, which I don't believe he ever explained. Greenie: maybe did overreact a bit when Nerwen brought up that quote from Nog about suspecting her. It didn't look bad enough to merit a vote, though. Lommy I've not paid much attention to, honestly. My focus got turned away from her after Day 1 (by you-know-who), but I thought her casting the first votes for Lottie made her look fairly good. Kath: not a lot to go on. Really, her posting looks all right from what I recall (which isn't much). x/d with Rune |
Having internet trouble at again, so sorry about not being around.
But I've read through things and I will say this quickly– I am now quite concerned about Greenie, and no, it's not just retaliation. She analysed me and said there were some things she found suspicious, and that she might consider lynching me if I didn't provide proper answers to her questions. Fine, though I think the points were pretty minor. Then, she keeps talking about me, and with each repetition I become more and more THE suspect, leading up to her voting me. (Recall that there's no further input from me in between any of these posts.) It looks manufactured. EDIT:X'd with Zil. |
K, this does NOT make sense:
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Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it. If she's an elf, she's playing it really well. But I don't trust her. And I know that all that review and analysis was really bad, but it's the best I can do with the time I've got plus with my inexperience at this. -- Foley x-posted since my last post. |
Rune, the "I'd never do that as a wolf" defense probably wasn't the best thing you could have said to convince me.
And what's this about Nerwen and Greenie now? |
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However– Quote:
EDIT:X'd with Zil. |
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What is being implied seems pretty important to me or have I completely misunderstood them? |
Bleh. Had to run downstairs and kill a spider found by the little one.
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x/d with Rune |
About Phantom's idea: I don't think we could verify who was a real seer.
Also, reps, you better start voting. Don't let Nerwen die, that'd be stupid. -- Foley |
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x/d with Foley |
I am willing to vote Rune or Greenie.
Do not let me die, please. That would not help. |
I would of course love to save my own skin, so if that means voting Greenie, then I will do that.l
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++Greenie++
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++Greenie++
Cross posted with Nerwen. |
++Greenie++ X 2
x/d with Nerwen and Rune |
Let's hope I/we weren't wrong.
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Deadline.
Greenie dies. Narration will be late because I'm going to watch trashy cheerleader television. I'll have narration up in about an hour and a half. |
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EDIT:X'd with Fea and Foley. |
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Greenie has been lynched. She was Arathorn. Night Four now begins. Elrohir and Other Guy, do your thing. Seer, lay it on me. Dead: Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks. Nog (ordo) - ninjaed in his sleep Celuien (ordo) - struck by the curse Greenie (Arathorn) - it was all fun and games, then she lost an eye Alive: Foley Kath Legate Lommy Mira Nerwen Phantom Rune Shasta Steve Zil |
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Mira has been killed. She had some awesome dreams. Day Four now begins. Elrohir and Other Guy, cease. Dead: Feanorc and Niennorc - beheaded in the dark Lottielf (Elladan) - axed in the head Izanordorc (ordo) - head cut off in her sleep Borc (ordo) - nommed some poison by accident Glirdan (ordo) - accidental broken heart Wilwa (ordo) and Sally (ordo) - crushed to death by khup-khaks. Nog (ordo) - ninjaed in his sleep Celuien (ordo) - struck by the curse Greenie (Arathorn) - it was all fun and games, then she lost an eye Stick (seer) - killed while fantasizing about That Tony Guy Alive: Foley Kath Legate Lommy Nerwen Phantom Rune Shasta Steve Zil |
Well well- looks like the experiment worked, but not the right way. Bleh. At least we can be certain that my list of innocents is at least partly wrong now. I feared at least one was wrong, but I had to try it. There were only two choices of people I could back and Mira given her lack of participation I judged to be the lesser of the two. Obviously wrong on that, blast it. Otherwise it would've worked perfectly.
Based upon her final post, Nerwen, Shasta, and me look quite good now. Anyone disagree? So that means we must lynch a couple of these folks- Foley Kath Legate Lommy Rune Steve Inzil I need to go back and do a reread of many things. I'll be around later. |
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