A light perusal of the thread yields:

Which is why Gwath and Izzy are in my list. Gwath's playstyle is primarily replying to posts (which provides me with nothing to analyse about him), and Izzy, who, well, I just can't read.

Must mean she is an Oracle of something.

Shush. You're not playing.

(In any case, I, above all else, understand how RL interferes with WWing--just look at my bloody developing-country location, for instance--I can tell you a story of how morm worried about Lhuna and I somehow being caught in the middle of a freaking coup d'etat! But, as I've pointed out, even though one didn't start playing with that strategy in mind, it is quite easy to use to one's advantage. Do you see my point?)

Excellent point, although the probability of an ordo defending an innocent is higher than the probability of an ordo suspecting/accusing a baddie.

And as I'm inclined to think Nogrod innocent, I don't really subscribe to that comment of mine--however, considering that I'm analysing Firefoot's post from a seer-hunter's Anschauung, I had to point it out.

I love you, Isabellkya. :D

Yes, I'm playing that sort--still enjoying newfound ability to post more and all; but only a few seems to be reacting. :(

Fea's 541 reads Cobbler to me, at the very least.

I'm very reluctant to vote for Fea even though she now positively reeks with suspicion...because I'm afraid that her death won't tell us much of anything unless she's a wolf. She has, in the main, had so little interaction with the other players that if she is innocent, killing her would probably be a dead end leading nowhere.

At least with lynching Brinn, or Gwath, or Izzy (to name a few) there is a trail to follow regardless of the result of the lynching.

Rundown...
 

The problem I'm having is that there really is no way to know without trying the ideas out. The problem is that we are so backed up against the wall right now that we have really run out of time to test anything. I think if we could find a wolf a lot of pieces would fall together very quickly. But right now it is just a crap shoot about whether you guess right on which theory to act on.

I feel pretty confident at this point that some wolves have been examined...its just picking out which ones I must admit myself to be at a bit of a loss to decide.

Overabundance of targets.

Shasta - So then what is your take on Gwath's later post about Fea being a Cobbler, or an innocent who thinks she found a wolf? in regards to her voting of Nog yesterDay.

Would that not suggest that if Gwath is a wolf/Vampire, then Fea is the Cobbler?


Yes well, it became semi when you revealed about the Kent experiment.


X'd with Kuru x2.

Fea - intrigues me. She looked like a cobbler to me yesterDay and earlier toDay, but her recent explanation for her behavior/style seems like it could be legitimate. Unfortunately, I don't like her style; or, at least, I don't like playing against it because it seems intended to bewilder everyone equally and so I never know what to make of her. She could be anything. However, I am leaning towards cobbler. I think her 4 or 5 votes for Nogrod yesterDay could very plausibly have been an attempt (and if so, a successful attempt) to draw other players into expending their bonus votes, which helps nobody but the wolves, especially if the wolves are saving their votes, as some have argued.

Nogrod - I don't like his big long case against Brinn at all. I felt like he was too convinced, too attached to the idea that Brinn is a wolf to view the situation with clarity and detachment. I don't mean to denigrate certainty, but one person's extreme certainty will only occasionally convince me when it is supported primarily by speculation. All that to say: I am wary of his certainty, but uncertain about his role.
Also, if Fea was the cobbler, as I have suggested, then it doesn't seem likely that Nogrod could be a wolf. One or the other.

Sally - 'Shifty' is the word I would use to describe Sally as she has appeared in this game. She has said very little, and when she does talk, it's almost always evasive, vacillating, and non-comittal. Sally looks pretty bad to me.

EDIT: Crossed with Kuru, Kuru, and Izzy.

One point I'd like to reiterate from yesterDay's voting (if for no other reason than it may be important later...I don't think it likely that both Sally and Brinn are wolves since Brinn just sort of up and voted for Sally.

Unless....:confused:

It occurs to me that there ARE circumstances in which an innocent player could be thoroughly certain of another player's role...dang, now I'm having to rethink this.

As Brin stated before , she had seen a few others voice their concerns over Sally (as well as Firefoot). So if they were mates, and she was worried Sally would be lynched. Would she not add in a vote there, to try and make herself look good?

X'd with Gwath.

Possibly...although I'm not sure at that moment it would have been prudent to potentially put Sally out on a limb again.

Unless of course Brinn didn't think at the time she would have been.

D'oh...just when I was about to vote Gwath I'm back to wanting to test the Brinn theory more.

Going to have to make up my mind soon, though.

Seems plausible.

EDIT: Ah, crossed with Kuru. Meant this in response to Izzy.

Okay I'm here and trying to catch up. Just happened to notice this and went :eek:

Did I really say that? I could have sworn I typed were innocent. Of course, I was also saying (at least I think it was the same post) that I was talking about him being gifted so it's possible that's what was going through my head and, as usual, I'm just horrible at expressing myself.

Back to business then. I noticed the comments regarding Fea's potential cobblerism and they interest me. The problem is that, again, we're talking about the cobbler and not the wolves. Not that we shouldn't get Grima but if we don't get wolves before too long we could be in big trouble, especially with the bonus votes complicating things. I'm just sayin'.

In regards to the considerations of me and Brinn being packmates, I'd just like to point out that I know for a fact (from previous games) that Brinn will throw her packmates under the bus. She may be planning to do it this game too, but it's not with me, I can promise you that.

Blast. Less than an hour to go. Must do this in segments of four or so:

Feanor of the Peredhil (6)
All senses scream 'Wormtongue!', what with voting and certain posts and all. Will not vote for her, however, unless no better opportunity is presented.

Formendacil (10)
Should be added to my quiet list. Posts a lot, but it's some banter, some more banter, a little analysis, and not much else. Does present certain useful ideas, however--like that NIGHT kill theory. I remain wary of the motivations of said ideas, though.

Kuruharan (6)
Beren. Suspect at your own risk.

Nilpaurion Felagund (7)
Playing a private game. Loves this game. Will not declare himself a proven innocent even in his own list. Analyse me, indulge my narcissistic fancy!

Nogrod (5)
His earnestness to save this village shows. Hence, inclined to think him innocent. (I've been scrutinising his plan, and the only possibility of evil comes from him being the Cobbler and enticing the village to waste bonus votes for the next DAY's slaughter. But other indicators of innocence or guilt, like voting and other posts, say otherwise.)

Oh dear...

Did you all HAVE to post that much? First time I say I'm going away is when all the posting starts. I guess I should go away more often, then.:p

Fea, Nogrod, and Kent are all not wolves. Might be a passel of cobblers, for all I know, but they are not wolves.

Personally, I inclined to think the Brinn and Gwath dyad mentioned earlier has merit to it. Brinn is always a hard read...

I already pointed that out, Sally dear. I included links in my analyses for a reason, see. It's for people to go see what's been actually said. ;) :p

Ah. Thanks, I lost my spot when I replied and must have missed your post. Appreciate it, dear.


Back in a few minutes! :D

As you know all too well, after last game.

Brinn
Gwath
Shasta
Izzy

At least one of those four has got to be a wolf...

Ok, I've made up my mind. I came very close to giving Nogrod the benefit of the doubt, but after reading Brinn's big long post #552, I'm leaning innocent for the present. So:

++Sally

Whaaat? Why am I on that list?

++ Brinniel (+3)

Very sorry, Brinn, but lacking prescience, and stealing too much time from my family (back home and I've yet to do anything other than get onto the Downs and talk half-heartedly to my brother about his Lego men.

My List
 

Known definite innocent:
Kuru

Leaning towards innocent:
Form: He seems to be making sense and has been making good points. His posts don’t seem like he’s hiding anything or trying to hard.

Greenie: Contrary to what others think she seems innocent to me. She just seems to be having little time and only wants to post when she has something to say. Nothing she says is giving off warning vibes to me.

Izzy: She seems more innocent every time I look at her.

Sally: I think she’s innocent. Not sure, but she seems like it in her posts.

Betwixt between:
Fea: I haven’t heard a lot from her, again with the problems, but she seems to not be saying anything that makes her seem guilty to me. I usually can’t get a good read on her and always suspect her, but here she is seeming more innocent than not.

Nilp: I read half of his post and he seems to have really good ideas and I go “yay!” and the other half I read and say “BUT HE’S A WOLF”. It’s just a feeling I get. And I just don’t like the idea of a lot of the vocal people saying a wolf/vamp is one of the quiet ones, seems like a good way to throw off suspicion.

Brinn: I’m thinking she’s more innocent but she could be hiding something through all of her defense. She seems to be innocent to me one minute and then guilty the next. I just don’t know how to feel about her.

Gwath: I have really no read on him at all.

Probably guilty:
Kent: I don’t like the vibes I’m getting from his posts. They seem like they are defensive and its just rubbing me the wrong way.

Nog: His posts seem the same way to me like Kent’s. They are also telling the village what to do about a lot of things, and to me this seems like a wolf playing boldly. Maybe he really does want the village to use all our bonus votes before the vampire can suck them but, well, it just seems wrong at time.

Shasta: His posts are giving me bad vibes all around.

With all this being said and I need to vote I feel like I should be using some of my bonus votes toDay:

++Nog(3)

Now, I've had far too much to drink and I'm glad I made that list earlier then rushed around all day.

Consider yourself special. :)

My mother always said so.

Hey! So I'm not the only one imbibing this week.:D

But really, Kuru, the drink is addling your brains. Please don't vote for my non-wolf, hopeful innocent there. *beseeching smiley*

And your mother doesn't lie.

I believe that I have made up my mind for the Day.

++ Brinniel (6)

Hope I'm right about this but if I'm not at least we have had lots of talking toDay to work on for later in what will probably be the last stand Day for the Village. All in the interests of science and theory testing!!!

At least we (well, I guess "you" now, alas) will know more.

Remember, this is for Science!

Ah, okay. I had forgotten about that.

Hehe, indeed. But it was fun. :D

Gah, so I was planning to vote earlier then I quickly realised I'd probably have to vote to save myself. So much for that. :rolleyes:

Kent -> Brin(1). 2
Sally -> Kent
Green -> Nog
Fea -> Nog. 2
Shasta -> Gwath
Gwath -> Sally
Form -> Brin(3). 6
Lari -> Nog(3). 6
Kuru -> Brin(6). 13

Brin 13. Nog 6. Kent, Gwath & Sally 1.


X'd since Kuru's #585. Added his vote.

*shakes head*

I haven't had anything to drink since yesterday, and I'm still fuzzy.

Somehow I conflated Lari and Kuru--the latter of whom, btw, I thank for agreeing with me.

Think nothing of it.

By the way, if this all does turn out to be a huge fiasco at least we will all have something to look back on and laugh. ;)

That's what she sa - wait, that was last game too.

Hopefully to the tune of victory, you and me.:smokin:

I want a smoke.:p

When I came back I was considering retracting Brinn and voting Formendacil, but with his recent posts that will not happen.

I will stick with my Brinn vote, and if she turns up wolf, don't let Lariren slip unnoticed:
Brinn's defense leaves Lari going back and forth between innocent and guilty...hmm. But my defensive mode makes her feel very uneasy?

We may be smoked. ;)

Happens a lot, to we the smoking hot.:cool:

Sally the Mad (10)
Now I know how people feel about playing with me--except I don't banter as much as she does. (Or so I would like to think.) Her general slippery feel and somehow being noncommittal to the DAY's proceedings makes me think he evil. Her aforementioned 'slips' doesn't help.

Isabellkya :) (8)
Yes, she does post, but seems to be fated to go under the radar. (Sorry. :( )

Prolly cos she's not an attention-hog unlike some people I know.

Go away, Adam. Anyway, she has posted helpful analyses and contributes well to the DAY's discussion. Therefore inclined to think her innocent.

(And yes, that smile shall now be standard after her name.)

Kent2010 (5)
Am still suspicious of him. Defensive behaviour combined with certain interactions I found suspicious. (I must admit, though, that with Kuru and Firefoot exonerated half of my material against him has been rendered useless . . . ) He's being rather silent toDAY--perhaps his fellows told him to tone down after yesterDAY's close call. ;)

Serious Post and Farewell
 

Well, this will have to be my final serious word of the Day as the powers that sent me here are now demanding my return from the task for which I was sent back into the pub.

The powers that be are apparently bored and need to be entertained. ;)

If Brinn isn’t a wolf, please everyone look carefully at Gwath, Sally, Izzy and Shasta. We do now have lots of stuff to go by. Do also have an eye for Lari.

If we didn’t get a wolf the Seer and Finrod also probably need to come out Tomorrow to assemble as many innocent votes in one place as possible.

Good Luck Village!

(btw, I’ve slipped up to .92 posts a day…whodathunkit)

Really? I've been silent today? Really? (now Nogrod might have to ban me from using really :rolleyes:)

And Nogrod, Brinn's chief attacker.

Ok, I lied...one last time...
 

Actually...if Brinn is a wolf...still have a serious look at those guys...

Ok, one more one last time
 

Yeah, that is a good point.