That's my guess for how things might be if Gil is a wizard (which is unconfirmed, but I do think it's quite likely that Brin dreamed of him). If you've got other ideas or interpretations, please do go over them.

Regrading Gil-

I think it must be him, yes.

As always, the alternative are random/no trace and misdirection, i.e. "clearing" a Rikwolf or framing an innocent Gil- but that seems unlikely to me.

If Gil is innocent, and it was Brinn's defence of Rikae alone that tipped them off, you'd think they should have gone for Loslote instead, as she actually went so far as to vote me for suspecting Rikae.. You know, it could have looked like the overreaction of a Seer thinking "anyone who votes my dreamed innocent must be evil! Die!" (If she's innocent, of course.)

EDIT: x'd with Coppermirror; x'd with Cop, Zil, Morsul.

It just seemed odd that you thought it likely he wouldn't show up to defend himself.

Oh, okay. I was thinking that if he's a wizard and he thought things were totally hopeless for him, he might not even show up, in order to limit the amount of information he might give us in the course of mounting a defence.

More on Brinn's possible dreams

Brinn also paired Nogrod with Gil in her suspicions yesterDay (#371, #387). It would be lovely to think she had dreamed both as wolves, but I don't believe this can be the case.

The Day before she was "unsure" about both of them: (#187, #203) and considered (#199) Nog as a possible cobbler.

It seems clear, then, that Brinn hadn't dreamed either of them prior to Night Three, and, self-evidently, couldn't have dreamed both on the same Night.

Interestingly, though, she talks about Nogrod as "one to watch" (#187) and says she will "keep an eye on him" (#203). At this point, it looks a lot more like she's planning to dream Nog then Gil. And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371)– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill. Now, as I was at pains to point out yesterDay– doing so is simply normal practise. Thus, this could be a Seer "reaching" in order to make a case on someone she knows is a wolf. I'm sure we've all seen that kind of thing. On the other hand, it could just as easily, or more easily, simply be a Seer discounting evidence against someone she knows is innocent (i.e. Rikae.)

And after all, it was Gil she "would have preferred voting".

EDIT:formatting. EDIT2:fixed error.

That doesn't even make sense. If they thought Brinn was an ordo, her death wouldn't "clear" me anyway. That is, unless they can expect the village to assume that wolves only ever kill people who suspect them.

No offense, but I don't know what to make of you, Nerwen. You really are saying a lot that doesn't make sense, and I wouldn't expect that from you as an innocent or a wizard.

At any rate, yes, it could have been they just got lucky and killed the seer thinking it was a no trace kill, in which case Gil would be innocent. I wouldn't be so sure about him if Brinn's last post hadn't looked like a hint. Even so I'm not as certain about it as you and Copper seem to be. I don't think she'd risk misleading the village by making a whole separate post about how she wanted to lynch Gil - I wouldn't - but I can't be sure.

I would like to hear from him, anyhow.

Wow, that's a good point actually. I think you may be right. Perhaps Nogrod was the dream after all?

Hence my saying it was unlikely. Really don't think there's any call for you to say I'm not making sense.

Well, I wouldn't want to rule it out. Though there's also what I said: It could simply be that she knew you were innocent, and therefore was inclined to look askance at anyone pushing the significance of a kill that seemed to point to you. But she didn't seem so inclined to suspect other people for that reason.

Sorry for the tardiness, I have been bouncing back between doctors all weekend.

I had a feeling suspicion will be continued on me, and it is hard to say if Brinn did a seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear. I did not like how Inz voted for me, and hoped for others to jump on even after it was stated that the votes were really spread out. I am still an obvious easy lynch for toDay, but myself being exhausted I just want others to look closer at Inz if I do get lynched and you discover that I am just an ordinary. I figure, if I go down might as well take a Wolf down with me.

You know my last posts for every day, I have been shady and would warrant a seer-dream.

Not sure what else to say for my defense aside from avenge me in the likely case I get lynched. With Brinn putting Nog with myself on the suspicion list could show that she dreamed Nog and hasn't dreamed me yet.

Inz and Nog are definitely the two we need to look at.

I apologize for not adding more, my brain is drained from this past couple of days. Possibly after sleep I can look more tomorrow.

And here's Gil himself to make my head hurt.

So... you're saying you think she did dream you, Gil? You know what that implies, right?

Back and reading...

You leave out the fact that there were still several people who hadn't voted when I gave mine. I thought you were a better bet than Boro, and that Cop for one was feeling the same. My vote crossed with Cop's.

I have to vote within the next hour, and I intend to vote for Gil. For his fishy logic on Day 2, the possibility that Volo was killed for suspecting him, his vote yesterDay, and that I believe Brin probably dreamed of him. That's so much suspicion that I really have to find out if he's a wizard at this point. I realise that there's also a chance she might have dreamed of Nog instead and found him guilty, and indeed, Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.

I won't vote until I have to, though, just in case someone comes up with an argument that persuades me before then.

++Gil

Hopefully this will be correct. I won't be back before the deadline.

I will hold it to you to vote Nog tomorrow if you decide to vote for me toDay. We got super lucky on the first day, and now it is just going downhill for us and we are losing a lot of innocents. I understand that this game is about senseless lynchings, but I just want to feel good that a Wolf gets killed after me.

Of course I do. It implies that she would have known my true role in this and would have looked at other trolls aside from me toDay, if she survived.

The way it looks, Nerwen and Inz are all gung-ho to lynch me toDay along with others non-committed but leaning towards it. I will state what I have stated before: I am innocent, a lynch of me would prove that, and you can assume this is just being a tricksy wolf trying to avoid lynchings, but I have accepted the possible inevitable and just ask that look at the trolls that were so persistent on an easy kill for me.

I do not like Nerwen's postings, not since her day 1 defense against me. When she got the spotlight, she put in a lot of effort to shake it off, and when she wanted to vote for someone she did not tarry off the path. An innocent would want to get as many wolves out as possible, a Wolf would focus on one at a time. Look back at her posts and decide yourself, this is what I feel.

With that said,

++Nerwen

It is up to you my friends, we really need to get a wolf kill in here.

Xed: with Cop

Hello, all. Straight to business today, as I have to work this afternoon and am unsure how available I'll be to post on the thread.

I know others have looked at Brinn's posts, but I have blatantly ignored their summaries and would like to note the following (so if it's a repeat, sorry).

So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

And now I need to read toDay's posts properly. I will return later with thoughts and probably a vote.

You said " it is hard to say if Brinn did a Seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear". No it isn't.

Actually I haven't been particularly "gung-ho" to lynch you- not more than anyone else and less than some. The person who has been strongest and most consistant in pushing for your lynchng toDay is Cop, whom you don't even mention. Why pick on me? It seems so random...

My defence? You mean when you made a really dodgy-looking vote for me and I, along with various other players, said, "Gosh, what a dodgy-looking vote"? And then you just started screeching about how everyone was out to get you and how "Nerwen's evil defensiveness shows she has something to hide"?

And then you go on to vote me. Even though in your previous post it was "Inz and Nog" we needed to focus on.

Possibilities.

1. You are a framed innocent who has developed some sort of paranoid fixation on me that's making you see me as your chief persecutor.

2. You are a flailing wolf who has settled on me as the best current prospect for an innocent lynch.

3. You are a sneaky wolf who is hoping to take me down with him via over-the-top accusations that will be seen as "wolf-on-wolf".

EDIT: x'd with Sally.

I won't have much time to play toDay I'm afraid, but I'll do my best!

That takes us to the embarrassing part. Basically, I thought you were the Seer and had dreamed him a Wizard. I had considered that a possibility since Day 1 (which was why I didn't vote for you though I found your vote a bit dodgy). That coupled with his odd behaviour yesterDay made me pretty convinced he was a Wizard. I obviously didn't want to say aloud that I thought him a Seer-dreamed baddie; actually I was thinking to stay off him until toDay and if you still weren't dead, drop the issue. But in lack of other decent lynch candidates on the block, and given that he got more blatantly suspicious by the minute, I decided to go with it already yesterDay. A mistake, obviously. :(

Regarding Brinn: I agree that her Seerishness pretty much clears Rikae. As for Gil and Nog - I'm not sure she dreamed either of them; Gil is a possibility but I don't think Nog is. As in - if she had dreamed a Nogzard, I seriously doubt she would have specifically said that her preferred lynch choice was someone else.

I feel a bit stupid asking this, but why would a Seer hint beforehand at who she means to dream of? Seems risky to me, and I don't see Brinn as a risk-taking Seer.


EDIT: x-ed with Sally and Nerwen

I find this Hilaurious that you refer to yourself as an innocent lynch. Nobody here besides myself has pointed you out for wolfishness or even voted for you (Aside from the deceased Brinn and Volo). You only have one vote for you, why do you constantly think that that means it is the end of you?

Look at my past in this game, I have found no one that has supported me, and every one that finds me suspicious. If I was a wolf, I would not throw names in that haven't been thrown in before, because the key to a Wolf in lynch-play is too bandwagon innocents one by one.

You are very defensive, admit that. I say one thing against you and it feels to me that you go to the ends of the earth to shut me down, and that is perfectly warranted. I just want to get it through to you that your aggression towards me is misguided, and to focus on others. I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.

Why did I vote for you? Because my dear, you are the most wolfish I have seen yet. Inz and Nog are up there, but they have been playing it close to the chest and still exploring other players, albeit Inz is changing.

If it turns out that we are both innocent, then this arguing towards each other is ultimately useless.

Xed: with Greenie

Brinn said she would have preferred to lynch Gil, but didn't think enough people suspected him at the time. However, see my points on why it could have been Nog she dreamed.
EDIT: Gil and Greenie

I don't disagree that she could have dreamt Nog, but if she did, I think it was after she said he could be the cobbler. Between the two of them, however, I'd say Nog is the more likely dream candidate, as I honestly believe Brinn would have voted Gil yesterDay if she knew he was a wizard.

Once again- none of this happening. I'm not focussing on you any more than anyone else is. You voted me, remember? Not the other way round.

Again, either you are an innocent weirdly fixated on me for no apparent reason...or this is some kind of wolf-ploy.

I don't know whether to take that last sentence as a slip, or just more weirdness.
EDIT: x'd with Sally.

Gil or Morsul. Those are my options. Both are too suspicious right now to be ignored, and it's obvious neither was cleared by Brinn. I'm not sure which to go for though.

I will be voting within the next half hour or so. If you want to try to persuade me one way or the other, now is the time.

Personally, I think this Nerwen-Gil drama is almost more interesting than the Brinn drama. Looking at it carefully, then, to see what's going on...

Option 1 is obviously, both Nerwen and Gil are innocents at each other's throats.

Option 2: Nerwen is a wolf, poking and prodding at the obvious lynch choice Gil to make him squirm and look even more guilty, and to make herself look good for participating a lot and for 'hunting wolves'.

Option 3: Gil is a wolf trying to take innocent Nerwen down with him.

Option 4: Gil is a wolf attacking his packmate Nerwen so that whoever survives toDay's lynch looks better for having bussed their packmate.

Now, looking at the other things Gil has done. His three big suspicions - Zil, Nog, and Nerwen - seem odd for a wolf because Zil has been considered generally innocent all game for how he treated Pom and Nerwen and Nog has been suspected lightly, off and on, all game, but never seriously threatened. Were he a wolf fumbling for an innocent to take down with him, I'd think he would have chosen someone like Morsul, who has been suspected heavily all game and nearly lynched a few times. Option 3, then, seems unlikely.

Option 1 seems unlikely, given Brinn's hints.

Option 2 and Option 4 both seem fairly likely to me. Option 2 seems like a repeat of the Nerwen-Rikae kerfluffle yesterDay, and Option 4 is the sort of thing wolf packs do all the time when they know one of their own is doomed. The only thing bothering me with Option 4 is that Nerwen herself actually mentions it in one of her posts, and I don't know if a wolf would bring that possibility to the forefront of people's minds like that.

All in all, then, I continue to find Nerwen suspicious, and I think it's likely Gil is as well.

Finally, I have to work for a few hours today, but I'll be back about an hour before DL. I'll hold my vote until then.

Oh. Right. I think Nerwen is acting shifty, which means she's innocent. I am rarely wrong about her (or rather, I'm always wrong, which means I'm always right, or something like that). I'll fight any attempt to lynch her toDay.

x'd with Lottie

After some thought I've decided Gil's recent posting looks, on the whole, more like a desperate wolf than an injured innocent.

So-

++Gil

Edit:x'd with Sally and Lottie.

In all honesty Nerwen, it is our play styles that don't mesh well and I am starting to feel like Rik here. I am at the point that I would just forfeit the game and be done with it. I am that frustrated.

Am I bitter? Sure I am but not because I am getting lynched. It is because I want to focus on other players. Lynching is part of the game and I accept that.


Just that those who voice for my demise will feel silly that they lynched an innocent. Except for the grinning wolves.

Gil, Nerwen (as well as the others) is totally within her right to suspect you as she's done. I'm truly sorry you're upset, but when you act suspicious, you're going to be suspected, and you've been suspicious for quite some time now. Actually, you've been bloody suspicious. And now you can be bloody and suspicious.

++Gil

I must go to work. I'll try to check in, but no promises.

Except I haven't 'poked' at him any more than anyone else has. He just suddenly started screaming that I was persecuting him- why me rather than others I don't know. See for yourself: the "Nerwen-Gil" drama is of Gil's making, not mine.

Edit:x'd since self.

Meh, I am resigned to my death and almost glad of it. Do got to say that I broke my record of surviving to day 3, since I survived till day 4! So I am happy on that, and I hope you get a wolf kill soon.

Fair enough. In this case, it is mostly Gil. Option 2 is probably much less likely than Option 4, though I still don't think a wolf!Gil and an innocent![/b]Nerwen[/b] would be acting like this.

EDIT: xed with Gil.

I am a weeny bit confused. sally posts this, stating she thinks Gil is unlikely to have been dreamed a wolf as Seer-Brinn would have pushed much harder for the lynch had she dreamed him.

Then she says:
But then:
But there's no explanatin of how Gil is suspicious in a way other than being a potential dreamed wolf. sally then votes Gil with no further explanation than 'you're suspicious'.

I don't like it.

Ok, so Nerwen said:

Which is the most absurd strawman I've ever seen. What Brinn actually said was
Italics mine. Now, I was wondering how committed Nerwen was to promoting the idea that Brinn dreamed Nog, so I went along with it, and she carefullly reinforces it:
Now, I don't know if the wolves would think it was possible to save Gil today by lynching Nog (or at least follow it up with a Nog lynch), but by Brinn's posting a Nog dream seems highly unlikely.

Sally (and I can't help but remember Brinn's point about there being a possible wolf among Sally and Shasta, explaining their survival) is pushing the same idea and more so - she actually says Nog is more likely! Then she actually feels the need to say
Does anyone seriously see Nerwen getting lynched toDay? Why does Sally (who maybe feels comfortable with her innocentish status in our eyes) feel the need to preemptively state that she will defend Nerwen? Regardless of Nerwen's role, it reflects badly on Sally.

As for Gil, he knows he's a goner and he's being sloppy. The fact that Nerwen notes this but basically prompts Gil to correct himself looks very bad.

Also
Okay then. However, he's definitely still trying something with the Nerwen squabble. It comes out of the blue and looks staged to me; Nerwen says:

Which I think is the most likely possibility after 4. It is wolf-on-wolf.

There is no question in my mind about

++Gil

But now I very much have my eye on Sally and Nerwen. As for which of the two looks worse, I could toss a coin at this point.

EDIT: Bah, the whole post I put italics in is in italics! Replaced with bolding. Also highlighting vote.

My question to you Rik is that by claiming Ner and myself to be doing a wolf on wolf tactic, after I get lynched are you going to go after her? At least, once you discover the truth.

Re: My possibly moot defense of Nerwen. See Boro and how rather sudden that was. Wackier things have happened.

I see little people. I'm off. Do well, fair village, and try not to bicker more while I'm gone.

After that you vote Nerwen?

I could say the same. I haven't been particularly bullish on lynching Gil toNight, though I did vote for him yesterNight.

I'm very sorry I haven't been able to take part thus far toDay (I managed to skim through some of the early posts during my early afternoon - about midway to the Day). Too much work; teaching, meetings, things to plan for the rest of the week... And now I have to make an exam for my class for tomorrow before I do anything else.

But I'll be back later and try to make as an informed vote I can produce. I should have more time on the next Day if I get that far.

I'm going to vote now as I'm about to move between houses and am liable to forget.

++sally

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

I think my jaw just smashed the floor. Sally didn't vote me?!

Back and reading... I had my days mixed up so I ended up working today instead of tomorrow... so have to catch up