Nog's voted already, hasn't he? And I agree with you absolutely about Zil.

++ Lottie


So it's up to you now as Shasta is around.

I've argued my case.

If Lottie is lynched and is not a baddie, do Wilwa check tp #405. If she is a baddie make your choice from elsewhere.

...Okay. Given this post by Lottie, I think what I've tried to accomplish has paid off. Here's hoping, anyway. Rather Phantom of me, no?

++Lottie

++Nerwen

It probably won't save me, but you've got another Day, guys. Zil and Nog, okay?

Edit: xed with Shasta. Thank you muchly. :p

Huh?:confused::(

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Okay. I x'd your speculation on Zil, but to be sure I'd like to check Lottie now as I'm weary about tp and her death would then make us clear on him.

This will probably give us some info...

Someone tell me who died....

Alas, I believe I did. :(

Sorry for the delay.

Lottie is dead. She was uninfected.

Frodo is crying silently in the corner. Alone.

I'll probably be busy at work for the next hour, so I'm just going to start the Day now.

Phrodo is dead. Sam found him in the Night and made his last few hours a bit more comfortable, but he is no longer with us. (I object to the implication that my birthday cake had anything to do with his unfortunate demise.)

Everyone else is alive. Start posting.



Here
Nog
Lhuna
Nerwen
Wilwa
Shasta
Dun
Fea


Gone
Glirdan
Nienna
Bom
Boro
Lottie
Phantom

First, Happy Birthday to SallyModdess!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


So Lottie was innocent and tp was Frodo? Wow. I couldn't understand why Lottie was after me so single-mindedly, and her being a spiderling acting under orders seemed a likely explanation.

No sting last Night due to Frodo's death, so something of a silver lining there. I wonder about Nog and Nerwen, but then I wonder about the others whom I've pretty much let slide. Finding Shelob seems as much a shot in the dark as it did at the start. :rolleyes:

However, I'm rather curious about this:

So..what were you trying to accomplish, Shasta? And why Lottie?

You are not impaled by falling stalactites. You feel as if the Cupcake has smiled upon you.



(Aka thank you.)

I might have a busy day ahead.

For now I would just like to say that after last Night's events, I'm beginning to rethink my inclination to trust Nerwen. And I need to take a closer look at Shasta. I'm still unsure about Nogrod.

Aside from that, this game has been frustrating thus far. Five Days and no lynched baddie? How many does this make the dark side? 1 Shelob and 2 spiderlings still, right? Meaning we have to lynch either Shelob or a spiderling toDay if we want to win the game for the good side. By any luck at least one of the three I mentioned above might be evil. Gah.

I'm wary of Shasta myself. He's been pretty scarce overall, then pops in at the last minute yesterDay to jump on the Lottie-wagon.
I think I could support a Nerwen-lynch toDay, as well. I see tp voted for her, and since we know he was innocent, at least his intentions can be trusted.
Nog has given me some reassuring vibes at at times, but I can't shake the feeling that he's being very careful.

That's funny, Zil, because after last Night I'm wondering about Nog, Shasta and you. And Wilwa, I suppose, though that may have been a genuine random vote. I feel I was completely railroaded into voting Lottie.

I'm more comfortable with a Shasta lynch than a Nerwen lynch, but that's just me.

If you turn out to be a baddie, Zil, I'm going to hate you as long as we're both decaying in this barrow. :p (You can ask Eomer - I never got over hating him after Werewolf VII. :D)

Me too, oddly enough.

I think there must be at least two baddies in the group Zil + Nog + Shasta. Probably not all three, as I don't see why they'd want to stick their necks* out that far just to get an ordo lynched.

I'm really quite annoyed with phantom. He should have known that a vote like that is usually a gift to the evil side. It just seems like he knew he was dying, so he didn't care any more.


*Not that spiders have necks, come to think of it.

ARGH. Should have known that was what caused his sudden apathy.

Everything makes perfect sense in hindsight. :rolleyes:

Day 4 votes:

(early) Fea: Lottie (no reason to trust her)
(early) Lhuna: Noggie (best bet for Shelob)
(early) wilwa: Nerwen (gut feel)
(:10) the phantom: Nerwen - 2 (subnormal votes and participation?)
(:39) Zil: Lottie - 2 (to "save" Nerwen; shed some light on the phantom)
(:42) Nerwen: Lottie - 3 (to save herself, I would suppose)
(:56) Noggie: Lottie - 4 (I guess also to shed light on the phantom?)
(:59) Shasta: Lottie - 5 (because of this post from Lottie in response to this post of his which I don't really get. What did he mean by Zil being "a possibility" - possible lynch victim or possible Shelob? And how did Lottie agreeing with him end up with her being dead by his hands?)

(:59) Lottie: Nerwen - 3 (futile attempt to save herself, I would suppose)


So Shasta and Noggie look the worst in this voting. And the possibility of Shasta and/or Noggie being eight-legged just increased when I read back on yesterDay, I'm not really sure why. I would really like to lynch Shasta toDay to make things clearer, and to get a baddie.


Random thought: At least we now know one person Shelob did sting: the phantom. The question is not so much why, but why on Night 4? Is there anything that happened the Day before that could explain that and help lead us to Shelob? --> half-rhetoric, half-"Help me guys, I can't analyse this alone and I need your feedback"

Okay, so here's the deal.

The reason I went after Lottie at the last minute - I thought she was a spiderling, who thought I was a spiderling. Make sense?

No?

Let me go farther.

The spiderlings don't know who their partners are. So I figured, once there was a number of spiderlings (as opposed to just one), I'd try and cross their wires a bit. I came in yesterDay with a random suspicion of Inzil, whom I hadn't mentioned at all previously, and Lottie immediately jumped on it - that and her other post around the same time (which was also pro-whatever I was saying) made me think she was a spiderling who thought she'd pegged me as another spiderling.

Now, funnily enough, we've got a trio of Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna all of a sudden, out-of-the-blue considering me as a possible lynch.. having previously just mentioned me as "someone to look at". We've also, coincidentally, got a trio of Shelob/Spiderling/Spiderling. Hmmm.

Oho, really now? That last bit seems like an afterthought, to me. So you'd like to lynch me for information, hmmm? On a day as crucial as today is, when we have to get a baddie or lose?

And I'm curious as to how a simple reread of yesterDay caused you to think worse of me... considering I wasn't even here for all but about a half hour of it. :rolleyes:

I'm virtually certain there are two baddies in the trio I mentioned earlier (Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna), but I think Lhuna has just made herself my first lynch choice.

:eek:

Zil voted against Lottie to "save" Nerwen.

What if Zil did vote against Lottie to save Nerwen?

I mean granted, Zil had been suspecting Lottie rather consistently, but it could have just turned out to be convenient.

And granted they're sort of suspecting each other now (well, mostly Nerwen suspecting Zil), but I guess they could be bold enough to do it now with the numbers very closely in their favour.

Or maybe I'm completely off my rocker.

EDIT: x'd with Shasta

That was a quiet start of the Day...

tp, why did you have to do that? You say from the very beginning that Lottie is not to be lynched and then you take the risk of causing a tie and a no lynch by saving her on extra-time... How did you think that would read out anything else but B-A-D-D-I-E-S? Had you just like given an explanation as to why? But no, others may need to argue their suspicions or trusts, but for the phantom it is enough he just says how things are, right?

*Frustration vented off*

So back to the drawing board then.


Fea I have no idea whatsoever. It would be quite unfair if she were Shelob, but also our own problem to decide whether we want to check her for that or not. Anyway I'd see her more likely as a decent victim of a sting as she might just be able to avoid lynching because of her erratic playing-style.

Shasta I have little to say about which has something to do with his scarce appearances. I do agree with Zil that his stated reason for voting for Lottie looks pretty strange, and one I'd appreciate a clarification on.

Lhuna probably still is my best bet as now, but at the same time I'm annoyingly aware of the fact that what I have against her depends on something that happened early on in the game and which includes some major "ifs" as well. And maybe a tiny little factor is her retaliatory stance. It should not be but sure it affects my judgement on her: if she is a goodie I do hope she'd try to work for going after baddies and not only limit her doings in retaliation.


Hey! People are posting! Good.

I'll continue with my list of impressions after reading the latest.

I'm eating my words on Lhuna not doing anything but retaliating... That's more like what I'd like to see from everyone.

And you made a good question there as well, why was tp stinged on N4 (why not earlier, I'd ask - or was there something there on D3)? I'm going to take a look at there.

Also it's good to finally start having these trios into speculation - and a high time for it. I'll try to look at things also from that perspective later toDay.

I'm feeling immediately more optimistic when people start posting and actually arguing over things. Way to go.

I'm not convinced. Lottie has been suspicious of Zil from the start.

I'm not considering you out of the blue, I've been wary of you for the past couple of Days (but mentioned it only on Day 3 because I was too focused on Noggie yesterDay) for being too submarine. And then yesterDay's voting made you stand out.

I can assure you that if we lynch me, it will be bad for the good side.

First some big news!

I seem to have remembered something on D3 I had after that totally forgotten - and I seem not to be the only one...
So we will not lose this toDay but will have two Days to turn this better.



I checked D3 and am not too sure I found anything decisive, but maybe something.

Nerwen and Lhuna suspected tp. Nerwen more carefully questioning his actions (though she voted for him the Day before), Lhuna more like getting points against him. Lottie was also slightly suspecting tp.

tp said Wilwa is innocent, Lottie at most stinged the Night before, Lhuna likely not stinged (according to what I think now outdated theory as Sam most probably has denied doing it).

tp asks Zil how phantomcentric he is. Zil says not as a rule, but needs to battle against that... :rolleyes:

tp thought Nerwen his best bet and repeated he would wish to get her lynched if there was a chance. Saved Lottie in the end.


My thought is that stinging tp would be extra-dangerous for Shelob, as if someone, then he would be one able to let others know he has been stinged and thus give Sam a decent chance of healing him (actually said that in my post #325). But looking at from that way I think it makes Nerwen look a bit better as if tp was suspecting her she might have been the one to gain a lot of attention by him the next Day. So to a Nerlob stinging tp would have been very risky indeed.

Lottie and Lhuna suspect phantom from a position where they are more or less trusted by him (and Lottie already now gone). Whuch means Lhuna could have been more confident in trying to sting tp. But that isn't much either.

anyway the one doing it must have either thought s/he was in no big trouble if s/he stinged him - or just didn't think about the dangerousness of that bussiness.



Okay. Greenie came to spend the weekend with me a bit earlier I thought (and there will be a semifinal match between Finland and Russia in the World Championships this evening), but I will still be hanging some time here as well during the rest of the Day. Hopefully being able to do something of consequence.

Also I'm looking forwards to Sam opening his mouth and giving us some thoughts from the brainstorming with Frodo.

But for now, I'm off...

You're completely off your rocker.:p Actually, though, it is possible that Zil (or Nog or Shasta) is a Spiderling who thinks I'm another– though I have no idea why that would be, as I really don't think I've been particularly suspicious, nor can I recall saying anything that could be construed as an eight-legged hint. So I think it's more likely Zil took the opportunity to lynch Lottie, who had been after him for ages.

This might even be an honest reaction– I said one of them has to be evil, not that it has to be Zil. His vote did pretty much force the issue, though.

Mmmn. My turtledove, Lottie had been pointing at Zil and yelling "SPIDER! SPIDER!" since about Day 2. Did you really manage to miss this?

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

I would say the same of you. I have no plans to vote for you, and if you turn out to be evil, especially if you're Shelob, you're my Day 1 vote from now on. ;)

Nog's vote yesterDay looks better than Shasta's. It's possible an evil Nog could have taken advantage of the chance to lynch an innocent Lottie, but his reasoning seems sound enough to me.

Indeed. Lottie was hardly getting after me just because Shasta tricked her into it. Shasta= spiderling?

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here? At first glance I thought you were trying to say that if Lottie was innocent, I would look more suspicious, but that makes no sense, so I don't know what this means. Unless you were trying to tell me something about phantom, but in that case I don't know what Lottie has to do with that. So yeah, confused.

We have 2 Days before we lose if we don't get a spider, right? And someone is guaranteed to get stung toNight, since Sam can't do anything. So getting Shelob toDay would be super awesome.

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be. I'd also be super surprised if Shasta was Shelob.

So who's left: Nog, Inzil, Nerwen and Lhuna. I'm fairly equally suspicious of all of them. They all seem like possible Shelobs to me, so I will go back and look over them a bit more. Just off gut feeling though, I'm leaning towards Nog or Nerwen.

Easily.

Just as it reads: if Lottie is lynched and is innocent it means phantom is probably a goodie as well - and thus his hinting is something you should pay heed to, and thus not a baddie bluff. But if Lottie turned out a baddie (and not Shelob), then you should not listen to the siren songs made by tp as he would be a mate in crime.

What Lottie has to do with tp? You must be blind (or you have not read the thread).

tp declares Lottie good and not to be lynched like on D1. tp risks / causes no-lynch to save Lottie on "overtime" - with no explanation whatsoever. How do you read it? Baddies (Lottie choosing tp as her first minion felt like a very reasonable choice).

But then his increased hinting about his role made me uneasy. If he was indeed calling for Sam in earnest then we should not lynch him as not to deny him his chance to discuss with Sam - but he could be a baddie as well who came up with this scheme of acting like Frodo and possibly straying Sam into guessing wrong.

That's why - heavily suspecting him and Lottie doing things evilly together, but being afraid he could on anpther interpretation have a goodie-role - I wanted to find it out for good by lynching Lottie (whose role was instrumental in finding it out).

Why did I think tp was Frodo? Look at his early post where he says that if Sam makes it wrong we lose the entire game... Isn't that rather extreme interpretation of our situation? Well not according to phantom as the game is lost if he isn't allowed to discuss with Sam and organise the end-game... :D

I agree with you with Fea being a possibly tempting target for stinging (actually said it alredy toDay), but what makes you so confident she just can't be / isn't Shelob? You make it sound quite catecorigal...

I also agree with the top priority, well who doesn't as the game ends with the death of Shelob :), but I'd be happier to lynch a probable spiderling than a possible Shelob - if you get what I mean? And no, I'm not saying we should rush lynching Fea. I think we should look widely around.

Ahem. There are only three hours until deadline, and there are very few posts.

Fix this.

Kthnxdie....erm, bye.

Okay. Re-doing and finishing the list I started earlier toDay.

Fea: As I've said now twice - a possible / probable spiderling because of being a safe sting for Shelob (not too high chance Sam rangers or heals her but not easily lynched either).

Shasta: A basic dilemma between a possibly reasonable trick and needing to pull out an afterwards explanation. It would be odd he had not noticed Lottie had been after Zil for more or less the whole game though.

Lhuna: One that could have had nerves to sting phantom as he seemed to trust her openly. But like I said earlier, knowing tp and his ability to make his point known then stinging him would have been a really bad idea as he could make himself known to Sam for healing (Shelob couldn't have known he was Frodo anyway).

Nerwen: She was suspecting phantom enough to vote him on D2. Would have been more or less suicidal to sting tp as she was the only one tp consistently wished to lynch. Unless she felt so much pressure from him that she decided to act on it sooner than later?

Inzil: Here I see my lack of time as I have no decent view on him (well he seems always to be a hard one for me to read). But I see many people have suspected him, so why wouldn't someone suspecting him come forwards with a kind of summa summarum suspicion, why is it you suspect him so that even I kew where to look and at which points.

wilwa: I think everyone of us have had their fair share of suspicion (except for Fea maybe), but none speaks of you. So it seems that even the baddies feel restrained to question you (I have been waiting for someone to do so), so it's good to have one on board we do not even consider lynching and thus one choice less.


Finland meets Russia in ice hockey semifinals and I'll start to look at the game with Greenie, but I'll have my laptop open and try to view this every now and then the next two hours...

Hmmm. Not a lot of new posts. It's late and I'm tired and should really go to bed.

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:
Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

Good night (morning, actually), all.

K, that's what I figured you meant by it Nog, but initially upon reading it, it almost sounded like you were saying I would look bad if Lottie was innocent (and since you have seemed to trust me, I didn't get why you thought that). Makes sense now.

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.

I'd be tempted to put Nog behind Nerwen, but I basically agree.

I can't really fault the vote, though I'd like to see Shasta come back before I would follow suit.

I see your points and they're valid, but I can't totally rule Fea out as Shelob. I will refrain from making her my focus, though.

Uh, I wish I could have put more time into this today.

I actually think our best bet is Nog right now for Shelob. The reasons he went after Lottie yesterDay don't make a lot of sense to me. And out of the possibilities he seems the most likely to me to have attacked Phantom. And he's trusting me very easily, which I appreciate, but also makes me really uncomfortable.

I also see Lhuna as being unlikely as Shelob, and it's because her and I haven't played together very often/recently, and I know that sounds odd. Though she could have been the person stung from the beginning. Inzil and Nerwen have both sort of gone under my radar, but the thing that stands out about them to me is that neither of them seemed to clue in to who Phantom was yesterday, when seriously it was beyond obvious.

It's somewhat on gut, but from what I can see, Nog just seems most likely to be Shelob.

x'ed with Inzil

I am trusting you wilwa because of what you say there in the quote (see the bolded part), which you said already back then. You were the only one to counter the idea that Lhuna was saved/healed by Sam. Having looked at your consequent actions from that perspective have made me more confident of it. tp's actions - and him turning out Frodo made it obvious. So that should be quite common knowledge right now.

Actually I think it would have been against the best interests of the baddies to try and bring trust to you forwards in the open as it would lessen - if not deny - their chances of lynching you. Shelob and spiderlings would stay quiet about you or try to get you lynched.

I do hope you had more to say than hunch or feel you seem to refer to with Lhuna, Fea and partly even me. It's very hard to me to follow your lead if you play it that way. :confused:

PS. What in the Lottie / tp affair you do not understand? It is perfectly clear. Even if tp disapproves if not everyone takes his every great idea as self evident truth, you could use your own mind as well as we need to catch baddies here. (Sorry, but I hear tp talking behind your words)

EDIT-ADD: heh, I just realised where your suspicion comes from... Oh my. So having brains and cababilities of inference makes you suspect of knowing things like only one would know. Blah. Well, then you guys are better off without me... or then please start playing.

Ok, my official guess: Nog as Shelob, Inzil and Nerwen as spiderlings.

All 3 of them yesterday wanted to lynch Lottie to shed light on Phantom's role. I still refuse to believe that people didn't see he was Frodo, everyone was aware that Frodo would be trying to hint to Sam, and everyone should know that Phantom wouldn't suddenly stop caring about a game, so Phantom acting defeatist, and Frodo knowing he's not going to last the Night and needing to hint to Sam, Phantom = Frodo. There was really no other good reason to go for Lottie, it was all about trying to find out more about Phantom. The baddies wouldn't want to lynch Phantom himself, because that would be a waste, they wanted the double kills.

Shasta was also voting Lottie for a similar reason, so I can see the possibility that he might be a spiderling, but I'm more inclined towards Nerwen and Inzil.

And I have to leave for work in 10 minutes. *sigh* This game is frustrating.

Finlad leads against Russia 2-1! :D