Double fail for me... Mira was innocent, and Nogrod was the ranger. Probably it's better for everyone if I stick with other people's suspicions, since mine are downright disastrous.

I'll try to work something out from the voting yesterday, at least... seems it's been figured why Nogrod was lynched instead of Izzy.
(also, it's two days in a row that people go voting who I did after I go to bed... it happened with Fea, then again with Nogrod. Weird, at least :confused:)

Nothing's really been figured out. We have speculation and theories, but Shasta's confirmed nothing and, if anything, the revelation that Gwath was in fact lynched randomly detracts from the theory that has been presented. Well, unless you go with my theory (which I'll get to in a bit) which works perfectly. But something tells me you won't like that one. Heh.

Just because your suspicions aren't right doesn't mean you should stop trying. Give us a list or something, just flesh out what you're thinking a bit more, and I'm sure you'll be fine. :)

So this might be naive to say, but does it really imply that whoever didn't die is therefore evil? Yes it would make more sense for the Black Knight to be protecting the other baddies, but what if xe wasn't? I know its far fetched and such, but it is slightly possible. I have no idea why xe would do it. Maybe the other wolves thought they were safe enough for a Night? Not sure, but there is no assuming there that I can see. In my twisted logic that is.

This is also discounting what others have said about the WQ having the ability to save someone. If that were the case than maybe whoever was the target looked innocent enough to the WQ to save.

Brinn's vote was the tie on Day 1. She was the second Nog voter before he even really looked like a lynch.

What is more interesting about yesterDay's vote is that I think Izzy's retraction and vote for Nog counted but not Sally's. They were both at the same time and Izzy's put her and Nog at the tie.

If we do think the WQ get's an extra vote or something here are who voted for Nog:
Hansy
Brinn
the phantom
Izzy in a retaction.

Am I such an enigma that I'm not on?:Merisu:


Brinn I did like your theories in this post as well. They did make sense and sort of go with my whole thoughts about not knowing really who the Black Knight protected

My old computer was named Denethor. I wonder what that says about me...

I agree with most of the post and think that this sums up what I think. We don't know what happened with either yesterDay's lynch or how the BQ's kill was stopped last Night. It was blocked but we're not sure if it was the doing of the WQ or the Black Knight.

Mira was also an interesting Night kill. Not going to lie I was expecting to find either Fea, the phantom, or Sally dead toDay. It makes me need to reevaluate some players.

Oh and special vote:

++Agan

Edit: x-posted since 395...the site stopped working on me.

For Lari:


Heh I did say some people wouldn't be on it. And yes, you are an enigma. ;)



I asked Shasta, and my vote did indeed count. Everyone's counted, is what he told me, though that's all he told me, the little son of a mother. Don't worry, that was my first thought too, but it is not in fact the case.


I'm always worried when Phantom, Fea, and such other crazy kids are around (Rikae too, and I just realized I've been completely ignoring the poor girl). I want to know why they haven't been targeted by either the black team or the Queen herself, since they obviously can't all be the Queen, and all of them couldn't have been 'saved' last Night even if they were evil. Very interesting to point out. Of course I'm surprised I'm not dead too, but the baddies usually keep me around and hope I get myself lynched for no good reason so I'm less surprised that I'm around than I am about the others. *shrug* Maybe they just think I'm cute? :Merisu:

Now that seems like a non-sequitur. :p

Heh. Just call me Chekhov, love.


Oh, and I'm analyzing you currently, so stop posting so I don't keep falling behind. :p

Now that is interesting because then Izzy did get the most votes. Which means the theory that the WQ might get more votes or more power is there. Maybe the WQ gets to switch the players around, so to speak. Like maybe xe thought that Nog was more guilty than Izzy so, since Nog was in second, got to have Nog lynched over Izzy for the good of the village. Which might mean that, since the BQ was blocked last Night, and possibly wanted to take out Izzy, that Izzy could have been protected by the Black Knight.

All this means is that I'm beginning to think Izzy more guilty than not. I mean, the Black Knight could have protected her out of some selflish foolish reason, but now that I think that more over its more likely that's not the case.

Edit: x-posted with Dury and Sally.

Usually when the loudmouth attention hogs stay alive, it means they're either completely off track, or there is a baddie hiding among them. Which doesn't really make sense, since I think Fea and tp (particularly tp) look innocent, and I'm sure that I, at least, am not entirely on the wrong track.

The only reasonable explanation is that I'm evil.
++Rikae
:D

Durie, you mean Sally's the cobbler? Why so?

By the way, Hansy's post above strikes me as way too apologetic-newbie-card-trying-to-look-innocent-ish. Reeks of it. He's not new to the game, and if Shasta knew it, it might have amused him to make Hansy evil and have everyone give him a free "newbie pass" for half the game. *grumbles*

I'll try to come back with some actual analysis at some point.

EDIT: X'd with everything since the Sally post I was responding to (about me, tp and Fea being alive).

*shrug* She's confusing me, so maybe?

Speaking of vote counting, could someone's vote have counted as two?

Another post for you, Sally! :p

Oh, I see that double-vote idea's already been put forward.

I could see switching my vote to Izzy...

I am here, and I'm going to finish my lunch while I read what I've missed.

++Mr Bombadil! He is real to some people.

In an attempt to say that I really don't think, looking at things, that the WQ gets two votes but could subsitute the second place lynch for the first here's my facts to back it up. Day 1 was a tie and here are the votes for those tied:

Day 1 votes for Gwath:
Steve
Izzy
the phantom
Brinn

Day 1 votes for Fea:
Hansy
Nog
Gwath
Sally

So by reason these people should all have one vote because it was a tie. Randomly chosen.

Day 2 votes for Nog:
Hansy
Brinn
the phantom
Izzy

None of those people could have two votes. Hansy voted for Fea Day 1 and if he was the WQ then Fea would have died then. While Brinn and the phantom both voted for the lynchee on both Days, I still don't think that either of them has a double vote. Whether or not they are more than they seem is left to be seen. I'm more inclinded to think the phantom is innocent over Brinn though. I don't think Izzy is at all the WQ so there's nothing to say about her.

Edit: x-posted with Dury and Izzy.

Excellent thinking, Lari!

phantom did mention that the whole "double vote" thing could have other stipulations on it, but now that we've gotten it confirmed that Day One was indeed a tie I'm inclined to think that the "double vote" was just a theory put out there which we've been focusing on entirely too much.

Which makes phantom look even more suspicious to me, as he had to know that this theory would not be the first one that would spring to people's minds.

In response to your "how do we know it implies?" comment: that's why I said "implies." Implies means you can make a logical conclusion that it is so, not that it is so. I have no clue why the baddies would diverge from a rational pattern of protecting themselves, but it's still a distinct possibility.

No, onto Rikae's point about Izzy: I'm still not treating Izzy as an innocent. I'm decidedly neutral about her. But I do still find it odd that she got four early, non-bandwaggony-looking votes that were never gainsaid.

Maybe I should just get off my Izzy-voter high horse; it looks as if no one's taking me up on it. Maybe I'm just crazy...

Won't have time to look into anyone in any great detail until a couple of hours from now.

Yes, they could've. If it's a power that can only be used once.

Or perhaps there is someone whose vote doesn't count at all.

Or maybe the WQ can, on one day, wave off the top lynch candidate.

Or perhaps the WQ is immune to the lynch. Or to one single lynch. Or immune till she auto-dies at a preset time- Shasta: "You are the WQ. You cannot be killed, but will exit the game automatically after Day 4."

There are quite a few possibilities, and only one chess piece knows the truth of it.

What if the White Queen can say "hey, this person's vote doesn't count"? I would suspect, in that case, it is a day-to-day pick of who doesn't count, and thus they can protect whoever they think their target will be going after. It's just another thought to throw into the pile.


I forgot to add that, conversely, they could choose someone's vote to count twice on a given Day.

Perhaps when I and others do analysis and offer possibilities and such, we're well aware that the WereBeasts are reading them and looking for ideas, and perhaps we're not saying everything we think and/or know in order to mislead them.
Of course Izzy is innocent. Pure as the wind-driven snow. She was left alive for us to lynch. And that conclusion is based upon an indisputable undeniable fact- the fact that I'm completely guessing and could be wrong. But let's pretend like I'm right.
Oh, but you love me, don't you?
I'm almost certain it wasn't everybody. ;)

And we kinda sorta didn't kill him either. The lynch was wacky.

Can we just shut up about any special voting powers the WQ may or may not have and start suspecting already?

...Yeah, I'm no longer torn.

phantom, the longer you keep this up the worse you look.

I know. There are a number of things that I'm not surprised haven't been brought up.

At the same time, WereBeasts are allowed to keep their own counsel, have already discussed this among themselves (unless they're the Queen) and they know (although you may be the cobbler) that you're not one of them. I know you have a high opinion of yourself, but how much good do you really think you're doing?

And I manipulated how? I was barely around in the final stretch. Only one Nog vote came from me, and technically it shouldn't have been enough to accomplish a lynch. I wish I knew what manipulation you are trying to credit me with, because truthfully I consider it a compliment when somebody tells me I have successfully manipulated people. Explain your compliment please, Dur.
Really? It's bad to save people?

Now, if Fea and Izzy are Wolves then perhaps you have something, but I'm thinking they're not. Quite strongly. And for all you know those two are the White Queen and White Bishop, so would you still suspect me for saving them if that is the truth? Sorry dear, but not a great case. Though I promise if those two turn out to be bad that I will be lynched quietly without a fight.
The arrow icon shows up in every post I've ever made on the Downs. ;)

EDIT: punc

We'll find out when this is all over. I'm pretty certain I've already done one rather good thing, but we'll see.

EDIT: wrong person quote

Nearly forgot...

++Mith

Wow, just look at what those two lynches have in common... I think we may be up to something here.

(those red votes, what is a cameo?!)

The whole "oh, is poor Izzy doomed" thing. Trying to save people at the last minute for no apparent reason is manipulating. The "what can we do, who can we vote for" thing that always seems to happen at the end involves manipulating. But I don't care about that. It's barely there, you're right. What I DO care about is you're silly explanation toDay about how you though Nog was innocent, and even thought maybe he was a gifted! Oh, but maybe he wasn't, so you voted for him to save Izzy...why? I guess because she seemed more innocent? I've already ranted about that I think. Though actually you're only reason stated yesterDay for voting Nogrod was "because you felt like it".

Once again, I already did my spiel about that. You voted for someone you thought was probably innocent to save another person who you thought was probably innocent.

Sorry, in any other contexts I don't bother to read your posts. :p

I think you need a new strategy! You're not the Good Wizard, there is no reason for you to be so bold.

So, right now...

Voted for:
phantom

Probable Baddies:
Sally
Brinniel
Izzy

Maybe Baddies:
Hansy
Lari
Mnemo

Maybe Innocent:
Rikae
Fea

Have no idea:
wilwa
Eonwe (who might be modfired if he does not vote today? :\)

I do. More than the wolves, I'm reasonably sure anyway...

I've been watching the goings on while doing my illustration homework and I'd merely like to point out that the only two people who said anything at all interesting made me laugh at the contradictory nature of what they said, but I'd much rather not discuss it openly.

Instead, I shall make a List.

We shouldn't kill:

the phantom, wilwa, Lari, Durelin

We should let convalesce a bit more:

Steve

We should force more participation out of:

Kath, Hansy

We should lynch one of the following:

Izzy, Brinniel, Sally, Rikae, Mnemo

It definitely looks as if someone was protected during the night, though I don't think there is any certainty as to whom did the protecting. At first glance, to me it looks like the BK is the one responsible. Though with not knowing what the WQ is capable of; there is no ruling xer out.

I was thinking that maybe the WQ has something akin to an anonymous vote(s). Where during the night, they tell Shasta whom they want to place a vote(s) on the next Day. So, essentially they get to vote for more than one person each Day. It could explain it - rather than their own vote counting for more than one; which doesn't look like it quite fits. Though, if it were the case of an anonymous vote(s) deal; the first Day, they didn't place it for Gwath or Fea. But looks like they could've voted for Nog. Explaining why he was lynched over myself.

I disagree. The only interest involved for the BQ to keep the wolves around longer - is the wolves.
We have 13 players alive; 6 of which are ordos, and 7 which are "special".
Which brings us to 8 innocents : 5 baddies.
So I think we are dealing with a pretty slim margin, with room for very little error.

I am beginning to agree with what I believe Mnemosyne and probably another said - that we can't seem to gain a certainty of understanding of what goes on behind the scenes and in front of us, based on the plots.
I keep forgetting that overall it is a chess game, rather than just plots. Rereading the other plots made this clear. That even if the save was due to the WQ - Shasta would mention either Sauron or Gandalf; since they are the players.

I don't think there is an implication of whom got saved. Just that the BQ was robbed of her kill by either the BK, or the WQ if xe has protecting powers.
If it was because of the BK, I see no reason why they would be protecting someone other than whom is on their team. I suppose I could see them branching out and protecting the BP, but I think it a less likely possibility. Unless they were certain of the BP and whom the BP was helping out/working for.
In the case of the WQ, they could've been protecting a baddie, or an innocent. If xe has protecting powers. Again, I think the only certain thing - is that the BQ did not get to kill someone last Night.

My computer goes by the name of Huey.

Now, that I've caught up. I will go analyzing some people and possibly make a list of where people lie in my mind.

Durelin- it is obvious you didn't read my vote explanation even halfway carefully. You'll notice that I said I did suspect him. Why do you keep saying that I didn't?

My explanation is that I thought Nog was not an Ordo (White Pawn). I was swinging back and forth as far as thinking him Gifted White or Gifted Black, and I was leaning slightly towards Black. Part of this was due to the fact that there were five of them versus three White Gifted. I was also reasonably sure he was not the Seer. So after mentally saying "Do it! Don't! Do it! Don't!" again and again I just sucked it up and went for it. The decision was made easier by the fact that I felt Izzy was White.

Anyway, now do you understand my explanation, and will stop saying things about it that are the opposite of what I said?

My post #425 was crossposted with all of the posts; starting with Lariren's #412. The edit page isn't working for me.. again.

Ahh, yeah, I mixed up things you said yesterDay (or maybe even the Day before...they start to run together...) with your post toDay.

But at least re-reading that post I know now that you can't really blame me for voting you.

Blast. I keep getting interrupted but my Durie analysis is in fact coming.



Right now I'm still unsure about Brinn (to clarify, by unsure I mean I feel uneasy about her) so I'd definitely go for lynching her. Hansy as well. Phantom stays, at least for now, and so do Kath, Steve, Izzy (although I suppose I'll bend on that), and Lari. I don't feel comfortable enough lynching them, so while I won't go out of my way to stop a lynch for most of those players I won't support it either.

Alrighty, so here's my list. I have two of my own White Queen theories that I'm also just gonna put out there, whether or not they've been suggested or not I'm not sure.

So I considered the role of the Queen in a real chess game, and they can do anything, go in any direction, lots of freedom lots of power. So I'm think prehaps the WQ is a ranger, seer and a hunter, and maybe as the ranger they can protect people from being lynched during the day, and maybe the WQ was protecting Izzy and that's why it got bumped down to Nog. Just a thought. My second theory is that maybe the WQ cannot be killed by us white pawns, and only by the blacks, and that would make Izzy the WQ. But I like my first theory and some of yours much better. Just putting it all out there.

My list, I find myself suspecting almost everyone, 1-10 (1-innocent, 10-guilty):

Durelin: Her early vote for phantom just freaks me out, maybe if it had been her last post of the day I wouldn't care but the fact that she's still posting a lot, I think she should have held off. 7

Fea: hmm, she's slowly starting to get me to lean bad for her, but definitely not enough to vote for her toDay. 6

Izzy: I was very sure of her yesterDay, and I still am, but her getting out of lynching definitely doesn't clear her, so that makes me just unsure, I think I'd like to wait and see what happens with her toNight. 5

phantom: He seems a bit off his game to me, maybe not quite as calm and collected as I remember him, but for now I am still a 5

Brinn: I still find myself very confortable with her. 3

Sally: Her post I quoted before still weirds me out, she's kinda starting to really bug me, I'm definitely very tempted to vote for her toDay. 9

Lariren: Still find she's very tip-toey, but still nothing huge is sticking out at me, participates more then I do so she's still mostly on my good side. 5

Rikae: Same as Brinn, still very comfortable with her. 3

Mnemo: my my, still don't feel good about her, may vote for her again today 8

Hansy: hmmmmm......wish I had more to say about him, but I'm afraid I do not. 6

Eonwe & Kath: consistently MIA, that just weirds me out 7

Therefore I will be voting for either Sally, Mnemo or perhaps Durelin, later on toDay.

For the next few hours I will be poking my head in here and there before I cast my vote.



oh and for Shasta:

++Mith
(thank you Sally!)


X'posted, with everyone since Fea

Oh yes I can. I will have revenge! Someday!

Willa
 

[highlight ] whatever you want to type [ /highlight]

Only without the spaces within the brackets. :)

Returnèd
 

Just because one person's innocent it doesn't mean they all are. In fact, it's more likely that one of the baddie's jumped on an innocent bandwaggon (and I mean ordos, as opposed to a bandwaggon being an innocent thing to to do- however, in the end it is the only way that someone gets lynched, and now I will end this extremely long sentence and bracket).

It might also be the otherr way around. Or maybe xe (are we still doing this?) can use someone else as a shield (who happened to be protected?)- maybe that last one's a little far-fetched.

[QUOTE=Mnemosyne;586541]Also, I hope Eonwe and Durelin are both back and in working order! We can't give silent players a free pass forever, even though they're having RL troubles.[QUOTE]
Well, I'm back.
Yes sir, I am. My head's still a little fuzzy, but I'll see what I can do.


PS. Sally, is it just me or are you playing a little riskily (and I don't mean for yourself)?- Or are you the Black Pawn?

Heh. Quite funny indeed. I totally read that as 'let the rookie win' though, and was about to make a huge analysis on it when I realized I just can't read. Blah.

Hehe!

So I was a random vote. Well, semi-random anyway. Okay by me. I'm not dead and the village isn't down yet another innocent so I'm cool with it.

Interesting dialogue with/about Fea, though. I'd love to look into their interactions more if I get a chance.

Too bloody many. Yet again, I am upset that he was lynched, because he seemed really innocent to me, but unfortunately there's nothing I can do about it now.

As I said before I find Brinn's vote suspicious as well, and I find it interesting the way she reacts to the voting. I'll agree; too many times if it's a tie between two people some of us just vote to save our friends, and it's a horrible werewolf strategy.

I agree on this theory, although....erm, she voted me kind of out of the blue. Random and slightly hypocritical much? Then again I know she had internet trouble so I don't feel bad about letting it slide.

If he's saving another innocent I don't see the problem with it. I'm just saying. Although yeah, it did/does look suspect. But dude. It's Phantom.

Yay! She likes me! :D

I think her list leaves a bit to be desired, in that many of the people she has in the suspicious categories seem very clean to me. I guess really all that means is that one of us is very wrong. Heh hope it's not me.


I'm always like this, silly. And if I'm acting crazy you know it's for a reason. The reason I'm commenting on this post (again) is to say that you should keep in mind, the sneakier seeming person is not always the evil one. I'm sneaky but not evil. I think Brinn's evil and not too sneaky.

Covered this. Moving on.....

And again....so wrong. If I was doing that I'd be trying to get an innocent lynched toDay rather than myself and buy my packmates as much time as possible. I'm a team player, and I don't give up without a fight, so if I was evil I'd be trying to get some poor innocent fool killed, not try to actually catch a baddie as I'm doing now.

Hun, my life is a non-sequitor.



Wow. I feel like most of this post has been defending myself, which is rubbish because I'm innocent. In short I know Durie suspects me and she's a tad hung up on me and Phantom but for now she isn't posing a threat to the village at large so I'm not terribly suspicious of her.

Yes, love, but don't worry. There's a reason for it. You know me, I like to cause enough stir that it tells me what I want to know.


EDIT: Yes as in I'm playing riskily, not yes I'm the Black Pawn. I am a white girl and proud of it, kthnxbye. (And no, that was not meant to be racist, just in case anyone wondered.)

This is possible, and in that case I would suspect that it was who they thought was the Black Pawn (cobbler), but maybe they just have another use for someone in the Day. :eek:

With all the WQ stuff, my new crazy is that maybe the xe gets to choose who gets lynched in the Day the Night before. You never know.


*Still reading this page (11)*

edit: ah, and maybe the WQ only gets to do this for every other Night.

edit 2: x-ed with Sally

Really?

Really?

Cobblerish tactics, I say! (not you Mnemi btw) Though I won't accuse one of many phantoms of cobblerism. Yet.

edit: x-ed with no-one. How sad! (and quiet)
edit2: AND there are 5 invisible members around (not including me)

Ok, I shall be voting shortly...

I keep forgetting to mention the kill- Mira.

I mean really... Mira? She sure as heck wasn't the Seer. And the Night before, Nerwen sure as heck wasn't either.

In a sense, I believe the Black Queen and Black Pawn are helping us. I'm thinking that the WereWolves are making it a priority to avoid killing those two each Night, which has led them to make kills that are rather... safe.

Surely that can be used to find our culprits.

Yes. A promise is a promise. Though I'm rather confident that I won't have to make good on that promise.