Yeah, I know it's not your fault, Shasta & Nerwen both, but it's still easy for me to be annoyed by the lower participation and voting etc. Bleh. So yeah, later today no doubt I'll complain about how I don't have as much as I'd like at this stage in the game on you two, but don't take it personally.

Anyway... Wilwa will be around more today too, I hope?

Surprisingly enough, I totally agree with this. The potential number of baddies ought to not be a concern, though. Getting them is the focus.

I wish there was a way to pinpoint Shelob. I still think she's likely to be one of the non-controversial ones, with the spiderlings doing the heavy lifting in getting rid of innocents.

I'm watching a movie relevant to all of our interests, and happen to be at a particularly relevant scene.

I'd like to dedicate this post to a very special arachnid. Mummy loves you. :Merisu:


Ahem. That is all.

Alright, I should be around far more toDay, but will still have to vote a bit early.

Looking at the narration it sounds to me like there is only one spiderling. The whole "you're not alone thing" sounds more like "she's not alone because she has Shelob with her", not "she's not alone cause there's another spiderling". And the "go back and play with the others" thing sounds like she's supposed to go and play with us (the villagers) not with other spiderlings.

And yeah, looks like Frodo was bitten. Here's what the admin thread says so that we're all on the same page:

So lots of pressure on Sam to guess correctly.

I'll be back in a bit. Wanna see what happens with Kate and Castle.

*crickets chirping*

Where is everybody?

I'm off to bed, I'll be back in the morning.

Yep. Whole game lies with Sammy. If we lose, it's all his fault. And I will rant and rave about how useless he is. And Voldy will curse him for his poor choice. :p

Just fyi I'm still against lynching Phantom, Wilwa, Lottie, and Lhuna.

Shasta and Nerwen give us little to go on. Fea gives us Moddess-demanded weirdness and randomness to go on.

So that leaves Inzil and Nog as the two I'd like to see everyone examine- me included. I may not be able to get to it tonight, but I'm going to give both of them a serious look.

I can't speak for everyone else, but my wife's had the computer for the last few hours feeding her The Sims 3 addiction. And now it's time for bed :rolleyes:

I welcome it. For my lynch choice, I'm not sure right now who I'd go for if no one's on board with me for a Lottie lynch. ;)

I do wonder about Nog myself. Was a tie yesterDay in the best interest of the spiders? I wouldn't think so. Yet Nog voted for Lhuna when he could have easily stuck another nail in my coffin.

You know, the reasoning only really works if you switch it around. Nog could not have known that tp would vote for you. "Sticking another nail in your coffin" would have brought the tally up to a tie. The only way for Nog to prevent a tie (and thus ensure a death) would be to vote someone who hadn't been voted before or to vote me, the frontrunner at the time. Your argument falls apart because Nog didn't know it would be a tie - tp's vote not only fell last, but it fell thirty seconds after DL.

My brain hasn't shaken off sleep sufficiently to make any sense out of sally's narration, but I thought I'd just get this out of the way.

Nogrod, I goofed typing Doctor instead of Sam. I overlooked it, in the same manner that you overlooked it too and didn't notice it until much later. (I wouldn't have noticed my mistake if you didn't point it out.)

Now I'm saying this because it appears to me that the whole reasoning for your vote against me yesterDay was hinged on that mistake (and is on my list of things to try to make sense out of toDay). And that was after you've practically decided not to consider me for lynching. I've seen this Nogrod before, the one with crazy theories based on flimsy reasoning popping up out of the blue, and he was never up to any good. For that, I'm going to look at you extra closely toDay.


But I do want to see what happens to Kate and Castle, too. :cool:

Tired...... Talk *yawn* later....

*falls down*

Frodo's definitely been bitten, but I think the rest is just colour.

(You know, by an interesting co-incidence, a diminutive, (very) curly-haired relative of mine was recently bitten by a spider. Made him quite unwell, too. Spooky, no?:eek: )

There was no hint of this in the narration, so either you do *ahem* know something, or it's just a guess. Now you say it's the latter, and that you're basing it on something "Sam" said– but that too ought to be a guess. Either way you can't expect everyone else to reach the same conclusion.

Phantom, I can't speak for Lhuna, but for my part I was thinking like this: gifteds don't have to give themselves away completely– it can be enough that their manner isn't quite "right" when talking about their role. Or that they're forced to single themselves out in some way– what if everyone except Sam said, "yeah, sure, I'd have cured Lhuna"? This is pretty basic stuff, phantom.

I might too– that did look like a bit of a reach.

Ah. Thanks, Nerwen. That takes one thing off of my to-do list.

Must be you're playing too much Werewolf. :D

So I was going to proceed analysing Nogrod's posts when I realised this is not a normal game. Le sigh. Still, something useful might come out. Be right back.

Also, I'm getting nervous about Shasta and wilwa who are both slipping under my radar.

I do agree, it looks like Frodo... although I'm not quite sure I fully understand the rules. I mean what happens if Sam doesn't "find" Frodo? Does he only lose the chance of PM'ing with Frodo the next Night (even if it might be helpful for Sam to share ideas with someone innocent, it wouldn't be the end of the game as Frodo has no special knowledge anyway) or does it also mean Shelob gets a free sting already the coming Night, which would be far worse?

But I do also agree with wilwa's interpretation of the narration. I mean Sally has said I think like a few times that there are hints in the narrations and that we should be reading them. And it looks like she is sending us a message there is only one spiderling ("not being alone" referring to Shelob herself and "others" referring to us). So that's good news.

Okay, sorry. This is a bit hard day for me as I have lots of things in my hand. But I will pop in during the Day if I have time (rushing to the afternoon classes now) - and then I should be home so 2½ hours before the DL being able to play.

I try to explain my theory the next time I can be online. It seems some of you didn't get what I meant...

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 1
Believes Shelob would be submarine. Puts Glirdan and Lottie under "probably not voting my usual Day 1 suspects" list. Thinks the phantom makes fair points about Lhuna being stung, and would rather save her for Sam. Chooses between Glirdan and Lottie in the flurry of last-minute votes. Votes Glirdan.

Now what was that? Panic over lack of time? A sudden change of heart, despite the absence of posts from either player? Or an attempt by Shelob to save her first been-stung from the noose (which in this case would be either Lottie or Lhuna - for the sake of discussion)?

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 2
Believes Shelob could be among the early Day 1 voters, or the non-voters (a long list including wilwa, Lhuna, Zil, Bom, Nerwen, Lottie, Fea, and Nienna). Unsure whether the phantom's Sam survey is a good idea or not. Takes the preliminary results of the phantom's poll as an indicator that Sam probably tried to heal Lhuna, i.e. she should probably not be lynched. Defends the phantom for doing good work in the anemic village. Agrees with Lottie that Shelob would likely sting people who can stay alive for a long time. Questions Boro for being defensive in response to the phantom. Thinks Lottie and Lhuna are not spiderlings, and Fea is not Shelob. Inclined towards voting Bom for being careful and for having forged suspicions against him, but thinks he might be a spawn instead of Shelob. Thinks Shasta could be Shelob for being so quiet. Says Boro is odd for voting Lhuna. Chooses between Bom and Boro. Votes Bom.

His quite sudden trust of the phantom's plan is unsettling, as well as his insistence on not voting Lhuna on that grounds, believing her to be most likely innocent. His track record thus far of being involved in the lynching of, as well as strongly suspecting, innocents does not speak well for him at this point - but that could also go for other players. If he is Shelob, it's possible Lottie is one of his spawn or, heavens!, the phantom. Or Shasta whom he suspected of Shelobbery but did not really go after strongly. Or someone else he did not mention so much. Gah.

However, tp had repeatedly said he would not vote for you, hadn't he? What I'm saying is that instead of voting for me, a lynch possibility,he went for someone who had no votes at the time, and someone who tp had also said he would not vote for.

An analysis of Nogrod:

Day 3
(Ah! The theory he meant involving Glirdan and Lottie was their conversation about Glirdan being visible. Huh.)

Defended his Day 1 vote for Glirdan based on the phantom and Boro expressing that they could vote for him, despite having others he suspect more. Explains that since ties end with no-lynches it is best not to spread the votes too much. Says he was pretty uneasy about Bom because it felt like Bom had orders to go after him (which I didn't pick up - I'll try to read Bom's posts after this). Has no special reason to believe that Lhuna is Shelob. Asks everyone to play with quality and take on a phantom mode.

...wait a minute. Something Nogrod said about the phantom (post #325) just made me realise something.

Some of us have been working under the assumption that someone who has been stung would likely try to get everyone's attention - most importantly Sam's - so xe could be healed and brought back to the good side. But now that I think about it, one could choose not to do that. If xe would rather be a baddie and try winning as one, then they would wait until they are completely turned and not attempt to get Sam's attention. Which means we could be going wrongly about some things.

Anyway. Back to Nogrod.

Thinks Lhuna should be innocent on Day 3, and the phantom would be of more use alive than dead. Trusts wilwa.

And now, for the main point of this series of posts...

...I still have no idea what he was talking about. :confused:

This entails that he has an idea of who Sam is. He tried to put forth his theory on Sam yesterDay and reasons that if he's right Sam would remain safe as he can't be stung by Shelob. But in that case Sam cannot confirm his theory (because of the no reveals rule) and what we're still left with is a theory.

This is making my head ache.

His sincerity in exposing most of his thoughts for us to see is, for me, the work of either an innocent trying to make up for the relative inactivity of most players in the game, or a baddie trying to get everyone confused and distracted from lynching Shelob. Would a Noglob be so bold as to place himself within everyone's plain sight. I think he might be.

That said, he's still my best bet. But I wish I had time (and patience) to look at the others.

Infected players are still innocent. Their allegiance only changes once the sting becomes permanent.

Also, you're all being amusing now. Yay! :Merisu:

How ya feeling there, Frodo? Can I offer you anything? Tea? Bug repellent? Cake? Rolled newspaper? Death?

Good. Thanks for clarifying.

Lhuna, I was doing my own analysis of Nogrod, but it got eaten. Anyway I doubt I could add anything to what you've got here. I mean, he's still in the "who knows?" category. Like everyone. I don't think the trouble is so much the weird game mechanics, per se, as that we so far haven't managed to lynch any spawn and thus have no connections to trace.

Although–

A thought: Wouldn't it be awesome if Nog and Zil were on the same (evil) side, and Zil just made the bold move of using Nog's reluctance to vote him as a point in his favour?

That would mean that I was either a spiderling giving a clear hint of Shelob's identity, or Shelob showing a link between me and my offspring. Not smart in either case.

I'm not saying, nor have I said, that Nog is innocent. I just found his not voting for me odd behaviour if he was evil.

No, I mean, you could be "hanging a lampshade on it".

Yes, it's thin. A gal can dream, all right?:p

Okee. So I should be around randomly for the next 4ish hours, and will have to vote a few hours early.

Phantom
Inzil
Nog
Fea
Lottie
Lhuna
Nerwen
Shasta
Wilwa

So, in that list we has a Shelob, a spiderling, a Sam and a dying Frodo. I think the spiderling was created either from the beginning, or on Night 3 (since Night 2 there was no victim, and last Night it was Frodo), I don't know which, and that's annoying since knowing which it is could be helpful. There's a difference between looking for someone who's acted evil from the start, or someone who just started acting evil not too long ago. (unless we do know which it is and I've just missed something) I'm also still working under the assumption that Shelob (and therefore her spiderling) know who Sam is and will be trying to get him lynched (and probably trying to confuse him about Frodo).

So the people who I'd be really really suprised to discover as Shelob: Phantom, Fea and Nog. I'm also inclined to think it's not Inzil. Everyone else looks fishy to me.

I have to go for a bit. Everyone in the game best have posted at least once before I have to go. I want to have a bit of a read on everyone, instead of having so many people I'm unsure about.

Due to an unplanned trip out of town for which I will leave shortly (2/3 awesome, 1/3 my favorite English teacher died unexpectedly) I get to vote right now without any idea what I'm doing.

I know who I don't want to vote for (phantom, Nog, wilwa, Lhuna) but that's not for any legitimate reason (oh hi, gut instinct).

That being said, I'm going with

++Lottie

because I have no reason to trust her, but my vote is early enough that if y'all think I'm completely off base, you can treat it accordingly.

Finally got home but need to rush in ten minutes to the choir rehersals. So the theory of mine some of you have been wondering in a nutshell. I think you should consider it.

There was one person who as a lonely one didn't like the idea we thought Lhuna okay. If xe was Sam xe would know Sam didn't protect or heal Lhuna and thus be against the common view.

Secondly. There was a clarification of the ruling as to what happens when doctor is attacked. I wondered whether Shelob had asked that from Sally as I didn't see anyone asking it on the thread. Then there was also this slip by Lhuna who seconded Nerwen's suspicion on tp but talked of Doc and not Sam. Well, I thought, keeping many faces is hard and if she had been specially bothered about issues concerning the role of the Doc that would be an understandable error.

If I'm right about this, then I'd think that tp is on the good side as then Lhuna had tried to roll the ball forwards to get him lynched seeing that someone had suspected him already.

Okay. need to run now. Back in about 2½ hours before the DL.

That's if you're right about the narration, Wilwa. I agree "the others" are just the other villagers, because otherwise there would have to be at least three spiderlings, which doesn't make sense. But does the fact that only one spiderling is mentioned mean it's definitely the only one? I'm not sure. I'd say it's more likely Sally is being deliberately confusing because... well, you know...

Anyway, it would depend what Day/Night it's likeliest Sam made a successful cure. Unless Boro was the one stung on Night 3, of course.

Note: refreshed and saw Fea's Lottie vote. I suppose I need to look at those two.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

Okay... I guess that does make some sense– more than the way you put it at the time of voting, anyway.

All the same, this game is so darned confusing, it's not that surprising someone would get the roles mixed up.

Hear, hear.

For the sake of posterity, I would not be opposed to seeing Nogrod, Lottie, or Shasta lynched toDay. the phantom is a bigger enigma to me than I probably am to some of you, but I'm okay with keeping him alive for one more Day. I want to see more of wilwa. Zil and Nerwen I'm inclined to trust, but if you turn out to be baddies I shall... probably be very mad at myself. I've already decided that Fea's not worth lynching - which I hope Shelob has not used/does not use to her advantage by trying to turn her.

Hmmn. Not sure I like this "Fea is just too ZANY to be evil" meme that's been going around.

I think it's more Fea tends to be this disinterested when she's an ordo, but I agree with the underlying thought.

I've read all of this page (since it was the only new page since the last time I posted) and the thing that jumped out at me the most was Wilwa mentioning that there's only one spiderling. I'm pretty sure there's two now (beginning 'ling plus one being stung) so I'm curious as to why Wilwa would try and spin the narration that way.

Also, I'm okay with lynching Phantom (but then I'm always okay with lynching Phantom). :)

The narration makes it sound like there's only one. So I'm assuming Sam saved one of the two who were stung. I actually still think Boro was the one who was stung at the beginning (cause the Doc could still be stung, right?) and that he is the one Sam cured, and that the current spiderling was stung on Night 3, and therefore toDay is it's first Day as a baddie. Of course it's possible we have 2 spiderlings, but just going off the narration toDay it sounds like there's only 1.

Wouldn't the narration have mentioned if Sam had made a save? I don't think the narration today sounds like one spiderling at all, to be honest (we're talking about the one with "you're not alone" or something to that effect, yes?).

That's exactly what I was thinking.

Let's see...

Night 1: Shelob stung someone.
Day 1: 1 stung
Night 2: Shelob was not able to sting.
Day 2: 1 spiderling (from Night 1)
Night 3: Shelob stung someone.
Day 3: 1 spiderling, 1 stung
Night 4: Frodo was stung.
Day 4: 2 spiderlings, 1 soon-to-be-dead Frodo

Did I get it right?

Perhaps the conversation in the narration meant that Shelob did not disclose the identity of the spiderlings to each other, which is why one thought it was alone?

Boro was not infected. If he had been, I would have mentioned it when he died.

That is all.

The Doctor could have been stung, yeah, but I don't think Miss Sally Moddess would have given us a Stung Doctor to start out with. Didn't Shelob give Sally a short list of names, and Sally picked one to be the first Stung? If she had a choice, I'd guess that Sally make someone who otherwise would have been an ordo be the first Stung, not the Doctor.

But that doesn't change the fact that Boro could well have been high on Shelob's list of people to sting. And, since Sam didn't know that he was the Doctor, it's likely Sam would have tried to cure Boro anyway because of the likelihood Shelob would have chosen him as a Spiderling. In which case, we likely do have two Spiderlings, from Night One and Night Three.

This has to be, bar none, the quietest game I've ever been in. Or maybe I'm just really in the wrong time zone.

++Nogrod

Ok yeah, I see your points. To me the narration seemed clear there is only 1 the first time I read it, but I can see how it can be interpreted differently. I guess I was just trying to be overly optimistic. And knowing for sure that Boro wasn't stung is good to know. So whoever was stung from the beginning is almost definitely a spiderling, and then it looks like the sting victim from Night 3 must be one too (for that one we should look for someone who acted strangely yesterday, and maybe their attitude seemed to change toDay compared to other days?)

That could be a possibility.

So I need to leave for work in about an hour. I know who I won't be voting for (Phantom, Fea, Nog and Inzil), so it'll be between the rest. I have to get something to eat and get ready for work, then I'll be back on to vote and such.

x'ed with Lhuna

That's how I took it, seeing that Shelob is apparently not allowed to tell the children who xyr siblings are.

I'm trying to figure out if this means my suspicion of Lottie may be more merited, or less. Or neither.

How could that have any bearing on your suspicion of me? From what I could gather, she voted me because she'd seen nothing that indicated my innocence, not because she saw anything to indicate my guilt. The only way it would have any affect on your suspicion is it makes it easier for you to lynch me. Is this post just another reiteration of how you suspect me, without furthering your claims any? You don't put forward points, you simply speculate on whether there might be some. This is so incredibly deja-vuish...I can remember at least two games off the top of my head where this exact same thing has happened. :rolleyes: