For some reason, I'm just not buying this...:rolleyes:

Oh hey, my post made it through. The wireless I was using at the time chose the very moment I hit "send" to disappear into the ether and so I thought (in a snit) that I would have to rewrite it. That was actually going to be a good thing, since as I was driving the point about the Shade lying about his/her vote occured to me and I wouldn't have asked the question, but que sera sera.

At any rate, I am now at my parents' house using their dialup. I don't know how long I'm going to be sticking around -- it depends on whether or not they're going to feed me, I think -- but I have a few hours or so of leisure. I will probably be voting with the next 6 hours and then going silent until the next Day.

So. Who to vote for? Well, the people who not to vote for are:

Rikae
Mac
Boro
Nogrod (unless another Hunter shows up to contest his claim)

I also find Eomer very likely innocent. It would be nice to hear from last night's lynch seer, as that would give us another likely innocent and a number of votes for Menel.

I am not feeling overly suspicious of Sauce but that in itself seems alarming as I'm always suspicious of him. I've been known to pursue innocent SpM with rabid fervor. :rolleyes:

Durelin seems odd. Why argue with Mac after he's been declared innocent? Just to be cantakerous? The only reason to suspect Mac is if you don't trust Rikae is the Seer, but surely if she were an imposter she would have been challenged openly by now?

Hmmm... Evil-Nogrod does have a history of impersonating Gifteds. Say he is doing it again. What's the plot? To draw out the "real" Hunter? To cause confusion? To save himself? *sigh* It's easier for me to just believe him for the time being, unless and until someone dramatically posts "I am ze hunter, thou spawn of bats, *slap slap*!!"

BTW, Durelin, can you explain your "Hah :rolleyes:" from earlier? Right after Rikae declared Mac and Boro innocent? I don't quite understand what was "hah" about it.

Probably because Mac and myself were Durelin's biggest suspects.

Well Nogrod could be the Hunter and not be lying...he could be the vampire hunter, but for now I trust him as the true Hunter.

I think it was because she had just made a point out of suspecting Mac and then our seer shows up and say "you know that one guy you find suspicouse. . he is innocent"

What can you say to that?

Just a few posts before that the only two people I said anything about suspicion-wise (or really at all) were Boro and Mac.

I am sorry if no one can perceive my uber skillz in the art of wit.

Thanks Mac for your point on Spm's interest in the vote tallies... I had already thought there was something that bothered me in them.

I'm not sure if I followed the argument well enough (I'll take a look at it in a minute) but as long as Eomer's chance of being a vampire rests on someone lying about voting Legate then the option is still on as I did lie about my vote to keep the vampires off my real thoughts then.

Now Spm didn't know that I had lied - and thence went on to try and cleanwash his buddy?

And he continued later on the topic:Taken together all his discussions on the Celuien-voters looks like drawing a bit too lot of comfort from one quite unsure source of information. And why he keeps coming back to that Day1 voting stuff again and again unless it's something that works for his interests?


Agreed. But I always find him hard to read. The only thing we know of him is that he at least wished people to look at him as the shade on Day1. Whether that was a joke of somekind or what, I don't know.

I see no good reason for anyone innocent to act like a shade.

I might see a reason for the shade to make his presence known hoping that both sides would then leave him be (but that's in dark contrast to our shade trying to kill Rikae last Night - although there were basically no chances in him succeeding in it anyhow, so why then even try?)

I might see a reason for one of the vampires to pose as the shade as well but then last Night's action would be quite too reckless from him.

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

You know, I could see Saucie being the uber shade. I mean, everyone suspects him of being a wolf, vampire, whatever, all the time...but who would suspect him as a stand-alone shade, were-bear. It just seems so vastly different.

And I can see Sauce attempting to off Rikae, taking the risk of catching the Ranger "bluffing" so to speak.

Though I can see a number of people doing that purely out of their sense of humour.

Personally I find it hilarious that anyone would think the Shade would side with anyone, even for a limited period of time.

An interesting possibility opened to me as I realised I had miswritten this last part... (and produced a totally stupid idea).

But what if Rune is a vampire posing as a shade and now our real shade who is leaning on our side wishes to expose him by making the shade look our enemy? Remember it was pretty safe trial to kill Rikae as she had been suspected a lot earlier so she very probably was not protected earlier.

It would make sense as - on contrary to Dury's idea - it seems pretty straightforward that the shade has best possibilities to win by aiding the villagers. It's only in the end when switching loyalties might help the shade.

I find it funnier that no one except the same 5 or so people have a desire to say something...I mean anything at all. I think I might start following Nogrod's plan and just lynch people who refuse to talk. I say we start with Legate. :p

And Nogrod if you are the Hunter (which I think you are) you might have shot yourself in the foot. See a reason I was jumpy to get Rikae to name her innocent yesterday was because I had a feeling it was me, and I just wanted to get knuckle-heads like Menel (oh rest his soul) and Durelin off my back. If I was one of the dreams and everyone than knew that I was planning on posing as the Hunter to give the real one a bit of cover...but I guess I can't do that now. Thanks, I was going to sacrifice myself and become a martyr...now I'm going to just get ripped apart in my sleep soon and probably not have a clue who the vampires are because no one wants to talk.

I say we do it this way...any innocent villager say 'aye' and whoever doesn't say 'aye' must be a vampire.

Let me start:

"Aye"

No plot this time Di. It would be just plain suicidal for a vampire to impersonate the hunter. There would be another claim and then the impersonator would face certain death. Even if the villagers would decide to check the real hunter by lynching him the impersonator would die in his hands at the same time or then the villagers might just manage to choose the impersonator to check him. Anyway. Fast and certain death.

EDIT: X'd with Boro

Sorry. My reading comprehension skills are pretty bad for a librarian. Heh.

Er, so you're saying perhaps the Shade was trying to do GOOD by attempting to kill our Seer? That seems... awfully fancy. Right now I think it makes a lot more sense to just assume that the Shade isn't on the side of the innocents.

What's to say the Shade wants to play it safe?

Alright, since it seems to be a fad now, this revealing roles bit, I have an announcement to make...

I'm afraid I am your...

Cannon-fodder, at your service.

I could go for Boro's lynching the quiet ones. I'd prefer starting with xyzzy, Shasta, or Eomer.

Oh, and I kid, Di, I kid...I really don't make sense.

Thanks for the nice idea. But I still think the Hunter is the last one who needs covering as he can fight back on his own and that makes the vampires a bit uneasy of killing him - I mean basically they can just let the hunter live to the end winning with numbers. Therefore he's almost more a pain in the arse to the vampires when laying open as they need to count what is the worth of making a go against him as there could be retaliation making the vamp's work of winning much harder.

Indeed. Which is why I'm inclined to trust you.

Are you saying you're the Shade?

What about Glirdan? Isn't he going to be suicided soon?

Unless the Vampire Seer has dreamed of the real Hunter, who has been revealed to be eg. Glirdan or someone other silent. Then, were Nogrod a Vampire (hunter?), this wouldn't be very risky. And if someone claimed to be the real Hunter and Nogrod was lynched, he could kill Rikae, too. Unlikely, but not totally impossible.


The Shade apparently wanted to tell the Vampires that s/he wouldn't be protecting Rikae next Night. Now the Vampires will probably attack Rikae, and if the Shade protects her anyway, there will be no kill. At least we know that the Shade can't kill anyone next Night, so maybe the known innocents may sleep peacefully.

I don't think either of these options are very probable, and at the moment I'm ready to trust Noggie. I still wanted to bring them up, and am sorry that I'm mixing things up this much.

Fancy maybe, but logical. I could name a few who could do it.

So you see your best interest as a shade (to be on the villagers side).

You see someone impersonating your role and thence will know that that one is no good for us.

You realise that the Seer is going to be protected so you could attack her safely to make people wishing to lynch the one they think is the shade.

Nice, isn't it? :)

At least I would love to try and make a trap to someone who impersonated my role...

But I would suggest that we do not vote for Rune toDay. If the shade is playing wisely s/he will protect Rikae toNight and we will have one more dream - and the more reasons to lynch Rune toMorrow. Understanably if the shade doesn't protect Rikae s/he's acting against her/his own good and also the case against Rune must be reconsidered.



I'm pretty frustrated with the silent ones as well. There are so many people I would wish to hear something from.

Please speak up!

EDIT: X'd with Di and Aganzir

Okay, now that really did look bad.

Cannon fodder is supposed to = ordo.

Aganzir - Very good point about the possibility of the Vampire Seer dreaming of the Hunter....

I think posting this here is quite legal as it concerns the rules of this game.

I just find that little add-on quite interesting. So why has he also the Night to appear as no one innocent-ordo can't do anything at Night and so his time to call in ends as this Day ends?

And clearly Glirdan is none of our gifteds or the shade as they have played. So that leaves only the possibility that he's a vamp...?

Of course I may read too much into Volo's adding the Night there but why then it is there?

I thought "Night" might be there because we won't know who are killed until morning, and if Glirdan lets Volo or Kath know that he's around and wants to play, he won't be killed in the morning. Interesting observation, though.

woohoo things are happening!

Nogrod you are absolutely delightfull, mindbogingly twisted. . .(I do not know how to spell that)

To think that the shade first of all is on our side and only tries to kill Rikae to make me look bad and furthermore thinks that people naturaly will kill me if the shade suddenly seems evil, is probably the most far out theory I have heard in a long time. I simply love it!

Honestly Nogrod had you said that before your Hunter revelation, then I would have called for you emidiate execution. But I will let it be, because there is the slight chance that now when you feel more secure that you are not getting lynched, actually have the guts to speak openly about your more "special" theories.

I mean we all have had crazy ideas that we have not put forth in fear of being lynched. . .or is that just me? I have often thought that it would be interesting to vote for the person you least suspect since we are so often wrong anyway.

Let me just say that I belive the shade tried to kill Rikae because there was a chance of her reavealing who the shade was. . . We should never count on the shade, the shade in on no-ones side, but its own.

Just a minute!

The ranger may protect Rikae every other Night:
The shade that sides with us villagers can protect Rikae every other Night as well.:
And as our Ranger protected Rikae last Night the shade can do it the next and then it's our ranger's turn to protect her and...

:smokin:

Surely this gives the game a new twist! It will be the vamps trying to spot our ranger and the shade against Rikae trying to spot the vamps. Whichever gets there first gives her/his side the keys to victory.

I think you Rikae might live for a few Days still. :cool:

That is, if the Shade thinks it's in his/her best interest.

I really don't like this idea of trusting/hoping for the Shade to be on our side.

Mr./Ms. Shade!

Please read this.

As there seem to be some people who don't see the evident fact let me spell it out just in case you're one of them who don't see it. And my apologies from giving you advices in case you don't need them. :rolleyes:

At the moment your chances of winning at the side of the villagers are something like 3:1. A pretty good one.

We need to kill three vamps and we can afford losing about 10 of us pretty easily doing that without the situation turning so much as to make you rethink where your loyalties should be. And with this double protection scheme we will have one Dream every Night. With all the probabilities we should also start getting the vamps lynched as well and I will take one out if they come to me. So good chances if you stick to our side and it will not probably take that long (ten dead) in any case.

Think of how many Nights you will have to avoid both us and the vamps if you do not join us and try to play in the hands of the vamps!


Btw. I first thought this 100% security on Rikae as long as both the shade and ranger do live was a mixed situation as I thought that it would take out some of the suspense from the game. But now I'm pretty confident this will be quite interesting indeed!

I do not think you are being fair Nogrod.

As I saw it people understood what you where saying perfectly, but they see no point in putting their trust in the shade when the shade could change sides anytime s/he sees it fit.

That is not saying that we do not get the point about both the shade and the ranger protecting our seer, it goes without saying that we all like the thought of that.

As long as I'm talking about things I don't like -- I am rather concerned about the whole Modfire business. We've already lost Sleepy and if we lose Glirdan (and possibly Legate, see admin thread) that's more and more people dying in addition to the regular way. If Glirdan and Legate are innocent, the "Village" is looking to lose out and that rather sucks. I think we need to start seriously thinking about what, if anything, we are going to do about this.

Do we vote to lynch those in danger of suicide? I mean, I may not find them particularly suspicious, but if it's a case of them dying anyway, making them the lynch victim minimizes the sheer number of losses. On the other hand, if we actually lynch Vampires instead, that's much better. But are we confident enough in our suspicions as to who the vamps are? That's the question.

Quite right. So what I'm saying is, can we just forget about this whole "tell the Shade what to do" business and concentrate instead on figuring out who to lynch? Right now I really don't know who to vote for. I was going to vote Nogrod until the Hunter reveal. Now I'm torn between voting for Glirdan (whom I don't really suspect, but may die anyway) and... well I don't know.

This is a tought one. . .I do like the whole idea about "damage controll" but it would also be quite a gamble as we would not really be looking for people to lynch and make the whole buisness a lot easier for the vampires.

I could also belive that a lot of people would have a problem with voting for people they do not really suspect.

I believe someone called me quiet, up there.

I had a reason to be, yesterday. It was my senior prom. :P

I have skimmed all the posts, and will be back later with something to chew on, but right now I have to get ready for work.

Edit: Oh, I remember what I wanted to draw attention to; Sleepy's death. Why'd he die?

What do you mean by "putting our trust in the shade"? How does it hurt you to hope that the shade acts reasonably as it doesn't require any action from you? I can't see you point (or Di's).

I don't know who the shade is. If Spm is the shade, or Lommy, or someone like them they will immediately see the situation and know how to act and my worries have been in vain. But if the shade doesn't see the situation correctly s/he might act against her/his own good - and thence also against us. The last one surely is something we wish to avoid, now isn't it? So all those who try to spread a feeling that it might be advisable for the shade to side with the vamps are purely hurting us and our case. They could be seen as advising the shade to act differently... and we know who are the ones that would hope the shade to side with them... :eek:

I hope the shade has reason enough to see through this. We'll see it toMorrow morning anyhow.

The shade surely has a chance to win with the vamps if it's alive when there are only a few players left (depending on how many vamps there are then). It's a long way to duck nightly kills and lynchings... so her/his best bet now is on us. Let's hope it never gets to the situation where the shade would have an actual place of rethinking it's position.

If we don't have a good shared candidate toDay, lynching Glirdan might be a good choice indeed. Not the least as there was this funny thing about the next Night being a possibility for Glirdy to show up I wondered earlier.

EDIT: #379 is the place

Well, Nogrod you seem to have put your trust into the shade being on our side even yesterday, at least that was your argumentation for "Rune = False Shade" and again now it dominates your theories. All that we are saying is that we cannot be sure what the shade does! It might very well, be that defending Rikae is the best option for the shade, but is it not right that some people like to go for the dificult solutions sometimes?

Maybe I am mis-understanding something, but I do not like the way this looks. If this is a comment about what me and Di have statet, then I do not think it is fair argumentation. Then you are saying that people who inform that it is not sertain that the shade does as you want it to is most likely vampires. Then one might as well say "You are either with me or agains us"
That sort of argumentation where you try to potray the others as "traitors" is nothing, but a cheap trick.

I can't speak for Rune but I was just getting a bit frustrated that we were concentrating more on speculating what the Shade could do than talking about what we can do. In the end, the Shade is going to do what he/she wants and thinks best and it's up to the rest of us to Lynch people. Anyway, mainly I'm just frustrated with the lack of a good lynch candidate today. I feel almost forced to vote for Glirdan but I'm not happy with the thought.

I just need to put this down to clear my own thoughts:

The list of people still around...

Gil-Galad (Gil)
The Saucepan Man (Esspiem/SPM)
Rikae
Boromir88 (Boro)
Nogrod
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Eomer)
Thinlómien (Lomiella/Lommy)
Legate of Amon Lanc (Legate)
Aganzir
Xyzzy
Macalaure (Mac)
Diamond18 (Di)
Shastanis Althreduin (Shasta)
Kitanna
Durelin
Glirdan (Glirdy)
Rune Son of Bjarne (Rune)
The Sixth Wizard (Morgan/Sixth)

Let's lynch Glirdan only if we don't have a better choice.

I don't think we need to discuss more about what the Shade will do next Night. Either s/he protects Rikae or not, but we probably can't do anything about it.

It would also be nice to hear what the Lynch Seer can say about Menel's lynching. Unless someone is lying (or accidentally forgetting to tell s/he was the Lynch Seer) we are left with those who haven't posted toDay:
Eomer
Legate
Xyzzy
Shasta
Kitanna
Glirdan
Sixth
of which anyone could have been the LS. I include Shasta to the list although he made one post, because he didn't actually say anything in the post.

Anyway, it's 1 AM here and I'm off to sleep. Will be back in less than 12 hours, hopefully, as I haven't slept long enough for too many nights.

edit: xed with Di.

I just wanted to come by for a minute or two. I'll be free to completely look over the thread in an hour or two. For now I'm not sure I like focusing on the Shade. There are more important issues I think. I believe we should be suggesting dreams to Rikae and deciding who is most likely a vampire, rather than worrying if the shade is going to be with or against us.

That said, what are the chances of Glirdan not becoming "suicidal" tonight?

Funny how we seem to be doing the same things...

So our innocents are:
Rikae – The Seer
Nogrod – The Hunter
Boromir88 (Boro) – an innocent
Macalaure (Mac) – an innocent


Then there are those more actively playing "veterans" whom are easier to suspect but who normally might also be of a great help to a village:
The Saucepan Man (Esspiem/SPM)
Thinlómien (Lomiella/Lommy)
Legate of Amon Lanc (Legate)
Diamond18 (Di)
Durelin
Gil-Galad (Gil)
Rune Son of Bjarne (Rune)


Then there are the less active veterans who are harder to pin down and thence more frightful:
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Eomer)
Kitanna
Glirdan (Glirdy) - who's possibly facing a modfire

Of the newer players I would say that Aganzir plays greatly and I would'n like to vote for her just because of her good points (even though she has said very little anything definitive or concrete and later on thay might start to mean something).

That leaves the enigmas:
Xyzzy
The Sixth Wizard (Morgan/Sixth)
Shastanis Althreduin (Shasta)

Feel free to disagree with my categories...

At this point of the game I might suggest lynching one from either the category of the "quieter veterans" (Eomer, Kitanna, Glirdy) or of the "newer enigmas" (Xyzzy, The Sixth, Shasta).

My hunted one is not among these six but we need three vampires anyhow... :)

I'm off to sleep as well.

Let's lynch Nogrod.

If he's really the hunter, he, being a very clever player, will probably take a wolf with him...and he will also be proven innocent.
If he is not the hunter, he's certainly a vampire.
In either case, we benefit.

++Nogrod

Yes, it would be, if I did not also seek to analyse it. I would prefer that you judge me on my analyses of the votes, rather than simply by the fact that I state them (it is, in any event, traditional for me to do so :D ).

What can I say? I truly believed her highly likely to be a Vampire until the moment she revealed. I have a long history of suspecting Seers ... :rolleyes:

It would have been Nogrod, had I done so, but I could see that few others were likely to vote for him.

Well, then Noggins. If your claim is to be believed, then I think that Legate could be one of our Vampires (subject to what, if any, Lynch Seer information we receive). I will believe your claim for now, but I will nevertheless remain wary until there has been sufficient opportunity for an opposing claim to be put forward.

Your point about it being in the Shade’s interests to protect Rikae is a good one, though, and speaks in your favour. I hope that the Shade sees the sense in it. We will probably know one way or the other after the coming Night, in any event.

And given that we will know toMorrow, I am not sure that I like the way that Rune carried the argument on.

Yes, I agree that this does increase the possibility that Eomer was lying. Indeed, it would have given him a good motive to state that there were five votes. He would have been told that there were four, but (since his would not have counted) would have known that there was an additional, undeclared one.

When catching supernatural beasties, I like to try to knock people out of consideration. In light of your information, Eomer is back on my list. But we can still view the other Celuien voters (Loiella and Aganzir) as likely innocents, can we not? Please, someone tell me if my reasoning is off here.

As for lynching Glirdy, I can see the sense of it, but instinctively dislike voting for someone who I think is unlikely to be a Vampire. However, given that all my other main suspects have turned out to be innocent (as far as we know), it might perhaps be the best vote for me :rolleyes:. I am willing to go with it if there is a sufficient majority in agreement with it to carry it through.