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Mithalwen 04-29-2006 11:51 AM

Crysanthemum tea all round I think...... :D

The Saucepan Man 04-29-2006 11:51 AM

Ang, I have been analysing. Mith's declaration of your innocence confirms what I had previously thought, so does not change my musings below.

On the double-Owl possibility, it would explain a few things, but I just don’t see it as being likely, given the Diamoddess’s original explanation.

My “birdlime” plan, Ang, was put with genuine intention. At that time, I thought it fairly likely that the Owl had been targeted by the Ducks and protected by the Nightingale the previous Night and so was trying to find a way of gaining the Owl’s knowledge before he or she was killed the next Night. Mormegil pointed out that the Nightingale might be identified by the Ducks from the Hawk’s revelation, but I was rather relying on the Nightingale and the Hawk to use their discretion in this regard. It is quite possible that they have been at pains to avoid any apparent connection. In any event, it is entirely superfluous now.

Being an Orc of little brain, I failed completely to understand Mith’s rhyme (as I failed to appreciate her Athena allusions) and so wouldn’t mind an explanation at some point.

But, for now, on to more pressing matters.

Here’s yesterday’s voting:

1. Spawn for morm (morm-1)
2. Ang for morm (morm-2)
3. Mith for Roa (morm-2, Roa-1)
4. Cailin for morm (morm-3, Roa-1)
5. Sleepy for Kath (morm-3, Roa-1, Kath-1)
6. Lote for Roa (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1)
7. Glirdan for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-1)
8. Mormegil for spawn (morm-3, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
9. Kath for morm (morm-4, Roa-2, Kath-1, spawn-2)
10. Lalaith for Roa (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-2)
11. Roa for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-3)
12. Nogrod for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-4)
13. Valier for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-5)
14. Jenny for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-6)
15. SpM for spawn (morm-4, Roa-3, Kath-1, spawn-7)

Did not vote: Elu

All votes came after Mith’s revealtion. Glirdan’s revelation was followed immediately by his vote for spawn. Interesting that Kath chose not to go along with Glirdan’s claim and voted for mormegil. If morm is innocent, perhaps she’s the last Duck. But I happen to find morm very suspicious. And, in Kath’s position, I can see myself as having done the same.

I find mormegil’s reactions to the revelations very interesting. Before Glirdan came out, he said:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
Mith I knew you weren't a Duck and I can see your need in coming out...knowing you as I do

He then practically begged Mith not to dream of him:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
Now if I survive the day, it seems unlikely, I implore you to trust me and not dream of me. It will avail you little. I am neither the goose nor a duck.

And then, in the same post:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
Again Mith, trust me, there is no need to waste your dream on me.

This I found very suspicious at the time, but the implications of which were rather superseded by subsequent events.

Having said that he knew Mith was not a Duck, morm then seemed to accept Glirdan’s claim by voting for spawn (although he did say that he was not fully convinced). A bold move, if he’s a Duck, but perhaps a case of desperate times calling for desperate measures. In any event, having accepted Mith’s claim wholeheartedly, he then goes along with Glirdan’s claim. That looks strange to me. But perhaps he knew that spawn was the Duck (because he’s one himself), correctly assessed that most who had not yet voted would accept Glirdan’s claim and vote for her, and wanted to be seen as against her himself rather than protecting her. A case of making the best of a bad situation for him, a bad situation into which his crony had unwittingly got him, if Glirdan is the Goose.

Today, he initially raised the prospect of voting for Mith. Convenient, if she is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose (as I suspect is the case). But also bad advice. As I said earlier, if we lynch either Glirdan or Mith today we will be none the wiser tomorrow and, quite possibly, an Owl down. Then, when village opinion seems to be turning against Glirdan and for Mithalwen, he switches again and finds Glirdan to be suspicious. Hedging his bets? Frankly, all this flip-flopping is out of character for morm and it just makes me all the more nervous of him.

Spawn’s vote for morm yesterday does speak in his favour, though. Although it was the first and she was not to know that he would become such a prime suspect. And neither was she to know that she would later be “revealed” as a Duck. It does not clear him by any means.

As for JennyHallu, I am concerned by her eagerness to accept Glirdan’s claim and to see suspicion in Mith’s behaviour (as I said yesterday, Owlish behavious can look very Duckish at times). She was the one, effectively, who put the final nail in spawn’s coffin. If, however, she is a Duck, she could hardly have come out at that stage and voted for anyone else. There was a lot of pressure on her to vote for spawn and it would have looked very strange had she not done so and spawn was then lynched and proved to be a Duck.

I also find the certainty with which she voted rather alarming:

Quote:

Originally Posted by JennyHallu
[plus signs removed] Dancing Duck of Ungoliant (Uh-oh...Now my brain has called up the song "Disco Duck". She's got to be evil if she's got that stuck in my head.)

If she’s a Duck herself, she knew that spawn was too. I always find this kind of “definitive” voting suspicious.

The other two that concern me at the moment are Valier and Lote22. Although I had thought them probably innocent for their votes for Nilp, they too were swiftly convinced by Glirdan’s claim. And both have stood by that today, which would be in a Duck’s interest if (as I believe) Mith is the Owl and Glirdan the Goose.

So, my own version of Ang’s list:

Anguirel-Innocent
Mithalwen-most likely the Owl
Saucepan Man-Innocent
Mormegil-Unknown; extremely suspicious
Valier-Unknown; suspicious
Nogrod-Innocent
Kath-Unknown; slightly suspicious (more so if morm is innocent)
Cailín-Unknown; I trust her for now
Glirdan-most likely the Goose
Lote22-Unknown; suspicious
JennyHallu-Unknown; extremely suspicious

I will be back later. Unless things change dramatically (and that seems fairly likely in this village :rolleyes: ), I will probably be voting for either morm or Jenny.

Nogrod 04-29-2006 11:54 AM

So many people have abandoned this game already (with worthy reasons, I won't doubt them), so really, consider it, Glirdan!

If you are a goose, that's the most convincing playing I have ever seen... if you are an ordo, please come up with your reasons to play the Owl. If you are the Owl... well. We should see the problems with Mith - which are far more harder to see at the moment than yours. Sorry.

EDIT: X-posted with Spm - and agree with his post.

The Saucepan Man 04-29-2006 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod
If you are a goose, that's the most convincing playing I have ever seen... if you are an ordo, please come up with your reasons to play the Owl. If you are the Owl... well. We should see the problems with Mith - which are far more harder to see at the moment than yours. Sorry.

I rather feel that the first possibility is the most likely. If I am wrong, Glirdy, please - take some time out, relax and come back when you are feeling a bit calmer.

It's only a game, after all! :rolleyes:

Doctor Who calls. Back later.

Glirdan 04-29-2006 12:02 PM

I know I'm really off my game. This month has been a hard one for me. Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it. I'm still thinking about it and haven't come to a desicion yet. I need some time to myself to really think this through and I don't get that time for another two hours. If you need me, I'll be around...

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 12:11 PM

Whatever is going on here, I would rather it was played out.

Can somone point me to the birdlime plan? And what rhyme? My hints were excessively subtle but I was hoping to play a "long game"!!!!

mormegil 04-29-2006 12:11 PM

SpM, you make a decent arguement but I want to state a couple of things. When I was asking Mith to not dream of me, I was talking to Mith and asking her to trust me. Seemingly she did as I trust her. I never accepted Glirdan to be the owl fully, as you noted. I saw an opportunity to lynch somebody who was at the key to a lot of information. Spawn being shown a duck made me think Glirdan was the true owl but Mith has made some great points but then Glirdan came out with his first post and my mind changed. What's so suspicous about that? I saw a better theory and adjusted accordingly.

Now you bring up a great point about Kath and that has been unsettling to me since it happened. Why wouldn't she help to lynch Spawn? You stated that if I'm innocent she looks a lot worse off, well being that I know I am innocent I agree that she is far more guilty looking now.

I would like to hear from Jenny today before I make a judgement on that.

Anguirel 04-29-2006 12:30 PM

Der Vogelfänger bin ich ja
 
Alright. I'm back, though to be honest I was so excited I did the Horace at rather high speed.

Glad to see that the Hawk has made himself known now. What, he hasn't? You don't know the half of it, buddy.

I am the answer, as it happens, to all the riddles, as my honourable friend the Duck-whom I suspect is a professional hypocrite known in the area as mormegil-knows well.

On the second night, I refused to let my most learned friend Philomela protect me. Until she put forward some convincing arguments. And I remembered I was Papageno, a coward and a buffoon. So I accepted.

That was fortuitous as it turned out, for the Ducks of the Night had trained their bills on me. I in turn had my curved beak aimed at mormegil. If I'm right, had I insisted on being unprotected the Night could have been one of valiant death, not simple relief, and the whole course of events would have been different. But I don't begrudge Philomela her solicitude. It turned out well enough for me.

Before Spawn was lynched, I had her too down for a shot, of which I am rather proud.

Last Night Philomela and I disagreed, in the politest possible way, about the Owls. She backed Glirdan, I backed Mith. So she decided to guard Glirdan, an unexpected bonus, you'll be thinking. Yes, indeed, Mith can be guarded toNight.

As for me, I hunted Valier. Dashed lucky I wasn't killed, particularly as the chump of a Duck knew I wouldn't be guarded. It should have struck then. Instead poor luckless Lalaith fell victim to their beak. I'm not sure why but I suspect she was erroneously assumed to be Philomela.

But I survived, still convinced Mith was right, and Glirdan has pretty much admitted as much.

Philomela, you know who you are and where you are. Thankyou for the excellent job. I couldn't have hoped for a better fellow warrior. Keep watch over Mith tonight.

And now I am newly convinced of the justice of my original scheme by Saucie, I shall get down to doing what I do best.

Bird-catching! Der Vogelfänger bin ich ja!

++MORMEGIL

There, Saucie, did I fulfill the bird-lime plan correctly?

By the way, duck, Philomela's femininity is a poetic concept, not necessarily a fact. If you survive, you've got the lads to choose from too...

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 12:31 PM

Shall we bear in mind, that unless D18 has got very cunning indeed we are looking for just the one Duck and Goose? And an awful lot of deeply confused innocents.

I want to trust you Morm, but as with Ang I wanted to know for sure ....... that is why oine of you was my personal choice..... if I realised I would have had such a fair trial today I might have chosen otherwise...... and looked at the girls more.

I also had to try and think who might get killed - and since you and Ang have been among the few who gave me a chance when all doubted me, I thought you vulnerable...... Spawn's suspicion of you is something I will have to look at. :cool:

NB X post with Ang ... wow

mormegil 04-29-2006 12:51 PM

"He is proud, knowing nothing, but doting about questions and strifes of words, whereof comth envy, strife, railiings, evil surmisings,"

Anguirel, you my friend are a pompous fool and if I die I shall go with a smile on my face knowing that while not likely, perhaps this may be a blow to your ego and debase you a bit.

Some people seem to remember that Spawn was on my me like stink on a monkey and while this could be a good tactic to be used, why would she go after me so fervently so soon with her numbers being already reduced? It was very apparant that I was the favorite candidate for lynching yesterday. You Ang have great knowledge but lack wisdom, which hopefully will come to you with age.

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 01:06 PM

OK So if I can be protected tonight we get two bites at the cherry ...


Assuming Ang has no reason to lie since the nightigale can vouch for him, and that I am telling the truth we have

Known innocents:

Anguirel
Mithalwen
SPM
Nogrod


Unknown

Morm
Valier
Kath
Cailin
Glirdan
Lote
JennyHallu


Is that it? We have lost a lot....... considering that the ducks have only managed one kill.

I would be surprised if Lote was the duck - her vote for Nilp would have been too odd....so ..I don't want Mormegil to be guilty but I don't know.... I would rather dream about him than kill him if there is any doubt. But it would be good to get this sorted...sooner rather than later. Need to reread ....

Anguirel 04-29-2006 01:32 PM

Yup, I'm again feeling I might have made a colossal mistake with morm. But if you are innocent, me old idleman, it was an act of colossal foolishness to beg Mith to avert her eyes. What's wrong with having another known innocent? Mith would not have wasted her dream on me, I who had other means of asserting my innocence if I wished, and we could have concentrated on, say, Jenny. If I have been mistaken at times, morm, so have you, and you might have had the grace to admit that. Oh well.

Vote as you wish, everyone, and of course I strongly advise trusting in Mith. Not that you won't have gathered that that's the right course of action by now.

One of the main points of my admission is to demonstrate that Glirdan was not a Hawk posing benevolently and nobly as an Owl, but I think that was pretty clear already. Also to tell you what you need to know about our valiant subterfuge-that it was I who was guarded, and that Glirdan was guarded after that-giving new hope to Mith. Mith, your "extra" dream is up to your own discretion once more.

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 01:35 PM

Sorry to be so slow but I have spent too much time defending myself and looking at others .. I am now freaked out by Morm's plan in post 30... only another 300 posts to review.....

mormegil 04-29-2006 01:36 PM

Ang I readily admit I make mistakes. Asking Mith to not dream of me may be one of them but as I saw it I was likely to die but if I didn't chances were that I would die today, remember at the time there weren't many other suspects. I know I'm innocent and I was hoping to impress upon Mith sufficiently to trust me. I think Kath is the most likely Duck. Also remember Ang at the time Mith selected you for her dream noboby expect one, knew you were innocent. In my book her dream was a good one as my fears of you are now allayed.

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 01:38 PM

Ang , mein Engel, if we have discounted my theory, I am bugged also by Diamond's secret. But we must focus on the duck..brain hurts .. surely DR Who must have finished..

Anguirel 04-29-2006 01:40 PM

The Duck-knowing I was protected on the first night-would probably suspect I was the Hawk. Thus the Duck would know me to be a most unprofitable dream.

Sadly this deducktion, ho ho, doesn't lead me much closer to whether or not you are the Duck, morm, though you did advocate Mith dreaming of me. As an innocent you might well have done the same.

Lote22 04-29-2006 01:52 PM

I still am suspicious of Mith and still believe that Glirdan is the owl. I think that because Mith acted more defensive and more Duck like then Glirdan, even before they revealed themselves. She was very snappy and defensive, he acted fairly normal. I don't think that I'll change my mind about this and I've made my decision on who to vote for.

++Mithalwen

Anguirel 04-29-2006 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glirdan
Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it.

Come now, men and women of Ducktapia. Does this sound to you like a wise Owl? Or a Goose in a rut?

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 01:59 PM

I was more attacked - of course I would be more defensive! How is laying into a known duck and being roundly attacked for my pains duckish?

So good of you to give me a chance to answer your questions.... :rolleyes: If it hadn't been for your Nilp Vote... I would suspect you.. but at least you are consistent. So I think you merely misguided.

Kath 04-29-2006 02:04 PM

Quote:

Now you bring up a great point about Kath and that has been unsettling to me since it happened. Why wouldn't she help to lynch Spawn? You stated that if I'm innocent she looks a lot worse off, well being that I know I am innocent I agree that she is far more guilty looking now.
I'm afraid my answer to this will be rather simplistic. I had spent the Day trusting Mith after her revelation. I popped back on intending simply to vote and go again, and upon my return find another revelation and a lot of confusion. By this time I was very tired (I'm still not totally better) and just couldn't cope with all the new information. At the time, stupid as it may sound, I just didn't get what was being said. I still trusted Mith over Glirdan, therefore I decided to stick with my original vote and just hope it didn't screw things up too much.

Kath 04-29-2006 02:05 PM

Quote:

If it hadn't been for your Nilp Vote... I would suspect you.. but at least you are consistent. So I think you merely misguided.
I think Lote is merely an inexperienced newbie. It served us well on Day 1. Let's give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 02:10 PM

I am quite keen still to vote for Jenny. Far too quiet and she has been around ..... But I haven't forgiven her for her comments about me so you might regard that as personal... But I can't stay much longer.

I will say if you bear with me, I will do my best with my dream if you can keep me alive tonight. But do try and get the a duck, you folks who have many more hours...

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath
I think Lote is merely an inexperienced newbie. It served us well on Day 1. Let's give her the benefit of the doubt for now.

Yes Kath she is low priority - and I guess she knows Glirdan - and that sort of stuff can affect you I know...

Mithalwen 04-29-2006 02:32 PM

OK Guys.. I am going now... I would have liked to have heard the views of the other known innocents before voting. I have told the truth and everything I know or suspect. I am not as up on all the details of other people as I would like becasue of the amount of time I have had to spend on defence - others will be better guides for voting probably. I have found Jenny Hallu suspicious as well as unnecessarily offensive in her rather inaccurate analysis of me. So I may be wrong but ..... without Sleepy and Roa she is my top suspect ..I am unsure of morm but since I must give one the benefit of the doubt, I will go with the person who at least showed me some respect.

++JennyHallu

Anguirel 04-29-2006 02:38 PM

I endorse Mith's choice of Jenny-alas for my swift vote. It seems a sensible and likely compromise.

Cailín 04-29-2006 02:42 PM

Sorry for not posting anything so far. I hope most of you read that I'm replacing Cailin for today as she couldn't make it, so please bear with me :rolleyes: ..

I'm more inclined to trust Mithalwen at this point then Glirdan, she made some good points. Besides I think Glirdan made it quite obvious he's not the Owl by saying:
Quote:

Besides, there's so many cases against me, all of which are completey valid, that I really see no hope in me being able to get out of it.
I'm going for now, not feeling too well so I'll have to vote now.

++JennyHallu

I'm sorry I couldn't hear her defend herself but she decided to trust Glirdan and attacked Mithalwen so that made her suspicious for me.

Again, I hoped to be a bit more part of the discussion but I'm feeling rather sickly at the moment :( .

Nogrod 04-29-2006 03:30 PM

I don't like the idea of lynching Glirdan tonight - as we still have some doubts in this Owl-thing. I'm all for believing Mith, but still. I think it's best, if both of them are alive tomorrow. The nightingale should protect Mith, that's for sure - I think.

What comes to the dream, I would like to find Morm out. I've been suspecting him from the first stage of day2 onwards. But my suspicions are lightly grounded, and he would be an asset, if proven innocent.

That leaves us the question about the lynch of this evening. It would be nice to not be forced to lynch anyone just now, but the rules demand us a lynch.

Jenny seems to be gathering some votes. I would be the first to suspect her in normal situations, but now, she has played so abnormally, that I don't know, what to make it.

I'll have to go back to all these posts in here and come out again. And sorry, I have been quite subdued today, but that's RL (a day with my children - even a WW-game can't surpass being with them... ;) ).

mormegil 04-29-2006 04:31 PM

As I stated earlier I would like to hear from JennyHallu prior to voting for her, my guess is that she is our last Duck and is hoping that by being silent today we 'forget' about her. I will vote for her if she does not show up but I would like to hear from her.

Mith, if you must dream of me, dream away, but if my two cents is desired I would say dream of Kath.

Nogrod 04-29-2006 04:41 PM

Surely, there is a possibility of Mith being the last duck. Then we would have been misguided guite nicely by her! If she is a duck, she would know the innocents, and then by revealing Spm, me & Ang would gain credibility in our eyes - and hope that we would then persuade others to believe her innocence... That's a scenario worth noting. Even though I understand her (possible) distress yesterday (noting the probable similarities you face as being a duck or an owl), and the situation with time-zones etc.

So Mith is either a duck or an owl? Otherwise she couldn't have hit the innocent-revealments right (as I believe, she did - knowing mine, and believing stronly the cases of Spm & Ang).

But how about Glirdy? If he is the owl or a goose, our lynch wouldn't tell that. It would only show his duckness / nonduckness. That's why I think we should have them both around tomorrow - with their claims of a dream both (maybe Glirdy now has time to dream? :rolleyes: ). That means not indefinitively. We might have a situation, where lynching one of them would be wise (remember the case Spawn - no-one I think really believed her to be a duck after all, but it was a good case to test the different claims).

So tonight's lynch? I'll try to have some grounded opinions in an instant - but can't promise, I can deliver that promise.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm

mormegil 04-29-2006 04:52 PM

No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

Kath 04-29-2006 05:02 PM

Ok, let me try and have a think about this.

1) Mith is the real Owl and Glirdan is the Goose - therefore we must assume Nogrod, Ang and SPM are innocent.

2) Glirdan is the real Owl and Mith is the Goose - therefore we assume SPM is innocent.

3) Neither is the Owl, one is the Goose and one an innocent - therefore no one has been proved innocent.

The most likely of these (to me) is the first one.

This means that the list of knowns is:
SPM
Nogrod
Ang
Mith


Unknowns:
Glirdan (Goose, Duck or innocent?)
morm
Valier
Kath
Cailin
Lote
Jenny


Out of that list I personally consider Lote innocent, because of that newbie vote for Nilp the first Day. Her vote for Mith toDay is a little disconcerting but I still think benefit of the doubt status should be given.

The one I want to know about the most is morm. This is not unusual for me, and I would rather it be done via a dream than a lynch as if he is innocent he could be a great help in future Days. However, as of this moment I am not suspicious enough of anyone else (except Glirdan) to consider voting for them, and so my vote will most likely go to morm toDay.

I agree though with not trying to lynch either Glirdan or Mith toDay. We can't risk losing the real Owl when they still have this chance to dream.

Nogrod 04-29-2006 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
No we shouldn't lynch either, while there is still exist a possibilty, even though it may be slight, that one or the other is an owl. The Ducks, most likely, will kill them when the time comes but we are in the business of Duck hunting. We really should focus on those whom look most supicious, that includes me obviously. Anybody who is not a known innocent is a potential lynch candidate with the exception of, Glirdan and Mith.

I don't see, how you can disagree with me by being of the same opinion? :rolleyes:

But here is something I have picked up...

So who do we have in the village by now?

Mithalwen – self-revealed Owl
Anguirel – innocent by Mith
Nogrod – innocent by Mith
Saucepan Man – innocent by both Mith and Glirdy

Glirdan – self-revealed Owl (revealing Duck-Spawn)

Mormegil - unknown
Valier - unknown
Kath - unknown
”Non-Cailín” - unknown
Lote22 – unknown
JennyHallu – unknown

As I said earlier, I would like to see Morm as our dream, and Mith as the protected one. That’s of course the choice of the gifteds.

And the tally?

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)

Nogrod 04-29-2006 05:55 PM

Of the unknowns in my list, I could be suspecting all of them...

But,

I will not vote Morm, as I think he should be given a chance with a dream (my "case" against him is light, and could be just an altruistic villager talk).

Kath I have not looked very closely during the game (it's my own fault), but for now, I'm granting her the benefit of doubt. Nothing that would rise the "red flags" there.

Jenny I'm always suspicious of - and that's to do with our mutual history. Now she plays a very odd game - but I have seen her twice as a wolf too. So I can't make any conclusion based on that.

That leaves:

Valier: The enigma. Has posted something and had reason in her posting - mostly. She would have to be analyzed, but at least I'm not going to be the one today (it's coming 3AM, and I'll be to sleep in a minute).

Lote: She hasn't posted much to take a hold to. And as she is a newbie, I wouldn't make so much of it. Anyhow, her vote today for Mith was an eyebrow-raising thing. We can speculate of things going on behind the screen - and I don't like to count my vote on that either. But still: that was not an easy vote to interpret.

Cailin: Reasonable play all the time. But why she didn't just tell us, that she will be away for a couple of days? Taking a substitute might tell us of either a good-hearted villager, or a duck, not wishing to leave her post...

Kath 04-29-2006 06:00 PM

Alright, I have to go now so:

++MORM

Due to my earlier reasoning.

Nogrod 04-29-2006 06:11 PM

Kath: you made just a move that takes you up on the ladder of my suspicions... But anyhow. I will go for:

++ Lote22

Her vote for Mith is - if not duckish - at least geesy. And I know, I'm having a very wavering argument here (as we have rivalling Owls here, and so geesiness would be the only factor explaining the other one).

But by now, this is what I can come to. Lote is the only person from my unknown list, I have a reason to back my vote with.

Nogrod 04-29-2006 06:13 PM

So here we are.

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)

Good night to all of you.

The Saucepan Man 04-29-2006 07:22 PM

Well, Doctor Who lasted longer than expected …

Actually, the truth is I like to spend my Saturday evenings with Mrs Saucepan-Orc. So I am only just back and up to speed.

My earlier main suspects were Jenny and morm. Jenny has not yet put in an appearance. Morm has, although mainly just to defend himself.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
When I was asking Mith to not dream of me, I was talking to Mith and asking her to trust me. Seemingly she did as I trust her.

Of course you were talking to Mith. And, if you are a Duck (and she is the Owl), you had good reason to gain her trust and to ask her not to dream of you.

As for morm’s reactions to the Mith and Glirdan revelations, we all had good reason to pause and think and maybe to believe one and then the other. But his views on this issue seem to have followed village opinion rather too closely for my liking.

Trusting Ang, as I do (his instincts as well as his proven innocence and revealed Hawkishness), his regret over his vote gives me pause for thought over morm. I think, however, that this was largely a result of morm’s accusations of pride and foolishness. To the extent that it was anything said by morm in his defence, it must have been this:

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
Some people seem to remember that Spawn was on my me like stink on a monkey and while this could be a good tactic to be used, why would she go after me so fervently so soon with her numbers being already reduced? It was very apparant that I was the favorite candidate for lynching yesterday.

Well, I looked back and, while there was some suspicion of morm prior to spawn’s vote, it could hardly be described as making him the favourite for the lynching. Anguirel thought him a Duck. I was fairly suspicious. And Nogrod and Cailin both expressed some mild suspicion. As some have noted today, morm is generally one of those who is unlikely to attract votes unless people are very suspicious of him. He was by no means favourite to be lynched yesterday at the time spawn voted. Quite the opposite. I can well imagine her voting for a fellow Duck at that point, particularly as she was not to know that she would be later "revealed" and lynched.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mormegil
Mith, if you must dream of me, dream away, but if my two cents is desired I would say dream of Kath.

Here, morm is still trying to dissuade the Owl from dreaming of him, albeit more subtely than before.

I strongly suspected morm earlier. If anything, his contributions since have heightened that suspicion. Primarily because they have been directed mainly towards defending himself rather than finding a Duck. He throws suspicion Kath’s way, but provides nothing to justify that suspicion - other than my earlier comment that, if he’s innocent, Kath would look suspicious for her vote for him following Glirdan’s revelation. Yet, he now claims to put more faith in Mith than in Glirdan, so I am not sure how that can cout too much against Kath.

It's late and I must vote.

+ + MORMEGIL

Goodnight all. I hope to see you tomorrow.

mormegil 04-29-2006 07:50 PM

Let me see if I can do a decent analysis of Jenny

Post 60

Simply checks in and comments on Valier calling this a loud village. Says Roa is not as cautious as normal and this speaks highly of her as normally she'd be cautious. Noggy is at his old game and therefore thinks he's innocent.

Post 84

Checking in again apologizes for silence but she should be able to talk now, says she's caught up on the reading but doesn't really post anything else.

Post 100


Does some thoughts on each player:

Quote:

DSoU: She's only posted twice today, so don't expect to see a lot here. She had some confusion as to the rules that's been picked up on as a reason for vote. This makes little sense to me. I'd like to hear more from Spawn, but I don't think her question says anything towards her quackiness.
Quote:

Nilp: Voted for himself...seems to be standard operating procedure. Withholding judgment (or any sort of opinion, really) until tomorrow.
I wanted to include these two quotes as they are about our two known ducks. She seems to cover her bases on both of them being moderately neutral which always is suspicous to me.

Post 105

Suspects Roa, Mith, and Sleepy all who are known innocents, not that it means anything but it is noteworthy.

Post 107

Jokes with me about going to my grandma's house and decides to give Nogrod the benefit of the doubt.

Post 111

She attacks Roa for being the one inciting Nogrod and using it as a means to find him suspicious.

Post 114

Quote:

I am pretty unsure where my vote is going to go, though, and I don't really want to widen the vote any further. I think I'm going to go with...

(removed plus symbols) Sleepy. I don't think we can afford to get rid of Nilp day 1. The suicide thing is odd, but normal. I'd like to stay out of the whole Sleepy/Nilp thing, but not if I have to leave 2 hours before sundown. I'll see how things look tomorrow.
A very interesting statement and it could go either way as to the meaning but with prior evidence it appears Ducky to me.

Post 293

Mainly asserts her belief that Glirdan is the true owl and Mith is the goose. Thinks that I am guilty and that my goose/owl talk were instructions. She does vote for Spawn at this time, but she perhaps truly believed that Glirdan was the owl because he 'knew' Spawn was the Duck as did she.

Post 294

Apologizes for sounding testy

Post 301

Outlines her suspicions but forgets Lalaith and Spawn at a minimum but doesn't really say much of any great significance. She does say, however, that she still thinks Glirdan is the owl. I can see that if she believes Glirdan to be the owl why she would forgo talking about Spawn but Lalaith is noteworthy.

Post 328

Says in the confusion yesterday that she missed Glirdan dreamt of SpM.


Well what to make of it all? Why there is no conclusive evidence there is a lot of substantial points that point to possible guilt. I will try to get to Kath but I'm pretty sure that I won't get to it today.

Cross posted with SpM

mormegil 04-29-2006 08:03 PM

Well I'm certain now that I won't get to Kath as she has 28 posts.

++JennyHallu

She seems guilty after my analysis I feel comfortable enough and I don't know if she'll turn up in the next hour; I tried to wait but I cannot wait any longer.

Valier 04-29-2006 08:23 PM

Ang --> Morm (Morm1)
Lote --> Mith (Morm1, Mith1)
Mith --> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny1)
Non-Cailin--> Jenny (Morm1, Mith1, Jenny2)
Kath --> Morm (Morm2, Mith1, Jenny2)
Nogrod --> Lote22 (Morm2, Mith1,Jenny2,lote1)
Sauce-->Mormegil (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny2, Lote1)
Mormegil-->Jenny (Morm3, Mith1, Jenny3,Lote1)

Well this is spread out......I am thoroughly confused and a little hard done by, all this stuff about two Owls I don't think is quite fair...but if DiamondGoddess says ok then whatever......(As she looks down on us, her Lab rats..Bwahaha) So I still feel inclined to vote for Mith, then we still have Glirdan the "Owl" left...hopefully he can be protected and get a dream in.....Or the other way round, but didn't the Nightinggale protect Mith last night? If so then I think she should go, since we only need one Owl and she will more than likely get nabbed by the duck tonight if she is the Owl, then we can see her identity....

.AAAAHHHHH I am confusing myself!!!....Ok I will take a little longer to think, then I will vote.:confused:


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