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And I don't know if it's too early to mention, but it seems pointless to attempt a check of a dead Lottie tonight, right?
Are we willing to assume the same for Mac or not? |
I've been reading through Firefoot and just checked here...
A thought before everyone gives their votes for toDay. Wasn't the other one (than Shasta) Nilp? I mean Nilp is the one who proposed the idea toDay in the first place - so it would be poetically right to give the vote to him rather than Shasta. Just saying. |
I think we should check Mac. It will tell us something both about Nerwen and Rikae's "dreams".
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If Nerwen is the seer this is a very risky move with little payoff. Let's hope not.
A traveling special role, I could buy. It fits with what Kuru said about everyone being on their toes. I'd rather not waste our scry on Mac or Lottie. Legate seems like he has more of a trail than the rest here, so he'd be my preference. |
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Nerwen will most likely join us soon. If she's bluffing, she might just tell us so (although after Lottie's confession I think it's unlikely). I think, for now, we can operate under the assumption that Mac is a wolf. |
From looking (albeit drunkenly) at Mac last night I had the impression Nilp was a possible packmate of his.
Not that it matters much, but I'd prefer to give our vote to Shasta for that reason. |
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One thing we should be on guard against, though, is a tying our vote. That's one way the wolves could prevent our message about Greenie going through (and keep the village thinking Legate was the seer... maybe even to the point of casting doubt on a real seer reveal down the line). There's going to be at least one probable-wolf around at deadline. Let's not give him room to mess things up for us. |
I was going to just follow Green and vote Shasta, but give me a minute to look at the options...
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Okay-
If Boro is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (he dreamed him innocent). If Firefoot is the Seer we want the vote to go to Nilp (she suspects Boro earlier perhaps reflecting on Shasta). If Nerwen is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (dreamed him innocent). Any other factors we need to consider in this? |
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Anyway. Let's pick Shasta then and secure all vote the same so the wolves have minimal chances of swaying the vote, right? Btw. there are some interesting things with Firefoot... I'll try to make it shortish - and soonish (to go to bed early today). |
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Oh, and putting my money where my mouth is...
++ Shasta |
Indeed. No need to delay, right? They also apparently have Lottie bagged, can't imagine what would have to happen to turn it over...
++Shasta And really, Firefoot is now making so much sense there (e.g. raising the possibility that I might not be the Seer... unless, of course, unless she knows because she is a Wolf and knows I got something wrong? But then again, what... I didn't really post anything that conclusive). I really hope she's innocent, and she started acting really helpfully and all. |
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It is an interesting read, her posting that is. I'll be back with it soon as I can. |
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Going on that assumption: Day 1 I said "Anybody who is suggesting an ordo self-sacrifice toDay (Nilp? Phantom? Lottie?) fie on you." and made a point of saying I liked tp's ideas "whatever he is" Argued against lynching people who always look suspicious (I was thinking Rune, McCaber, Shasta... not sure if others were thinking the same) Day 2 Right off the bat I talk about being somewhat suspicious of Mac & Lommy Joked about Lommy setting me up. Voted Lommy. I was going on a hunch. I could see a wolf-Lommy finding the way I was after her all day seerish. Still making a point that I liked tp's ideas but didn't necessarily trust him. "Ugh. I suspected Agan earlier but she's been looking better to me lately. I also definitely don't want Form lynched. And Nog is creating confusion but I suspect it's just sleep deprivation, not evil, to blame. " Suggested voting Lommy, Greenie, Mac or tp. Voted Lommy. Day 3 I first said "that takes care of that" of tp's death, then went to look at the Nogawagon. Concluded it wasn't to defend Agan. Suggested it was defending Lommy. Looked at Lottie and Firefoot. Found Lottie quite suspicious and tried to get others to vote her, unsure of Firefoot. Voted Greenie as a preferable lynch to Mac or Agan. So from this alone I could conclude: Lommy might well be in Lottie's pack. Rune most likely was not. Mac most likely was not. Not sure how that makes sense in light of their interactions at the moment, but yeah. EDIT: My post #385, at 6:35 Quote:
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Didn't she say her pack killed Rune and Legate? (x-post, saying the same as Legate) |
Well, why wouldn't she lie, especially if I was on the trail of her packmate...
However, I just noticed in #490, Lommy calls for someone to look at me for seer-hints. Would she do that, knowing it would point back to her? Then again, that could be exactly what she'd do... call for someone else to do it in the midst of a long post, and then distract everyone with Legate-was-the-seer talk. |
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Hmmm... Guess I'll have to do a separate exam with the kills flipped.
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Firefoot
She seems to start every Day with a theoretical analysis of something. D1 it is the deliberate tie, on D2 it is how different sides would have either wished or not wished for the tie, and on D3 she counts possible innocent vs. wolf ratios among the dead / living. The third one is actually followed by an interesting thing: Quote:
On D2 she clearly goes nudging both Rikae and Mac in a way I'm used to see more from the wolves - but it is not anything conclusive of course as the innocents can test the waters as well. With Rikae she jumps quite fast to Nerwen’s question whether Rikae actually knew Rune was killed because he was looking gifted (#253) by saying Quote:
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Being clearly more active on D3 she has been all over the place doing many things - like taking care we set up this information line Nilp had reminded should be there. And being invaluable in there. But then in #419 She first makes a pretty detailed speculation as to how the wolves could kill if the lover sacrificed - and then turned to speculate with the possibility of rather lynching the ranger! #427 is the post which Lottie-wolf spotted in her frenzy and where she puts the Night-kills nicely in place. And then of course her #534 where she defends herself by saying that Quote:
It seems her suspicions have been pretty consistent though - and yes we can also speculate if she then is the seer (happily we can do it here). But I'll check them and leave you with this thus far so that you can get some first ideas about how interesting Firefoot is (I mean she could be anything). What do you think? |
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Just looking through Legate's posts, Seer-Legate mostly points toward wolf-Greenie. In fact, it strongly looks like she was the only wolf he dreamed of - he sets her apart from everyone else, consistently. Perhaps Lottie is betting we didn't scry Greenie (or that she was in the other pack). Now, that leaves the question... who killed Mac and Legate? I mean, assuming Mac isn't in Lottie's pack, and knowing Greenie is innocent. Perhaps Firefoot (and Mac) killing Legate, assuming he was a seer about to dream her and that Greenie was in the other pack? Special role killing Mac of course makes sense. |
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I mean, if she had us both on her potential-seer list. Killing you would have been less urgent, since your one "wolf", if you did have one, was "in the other pack".
And she'd absolutely want to throw the village off her pack's trail. Why on earth would she give an accurate confession? |
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Couldn't Lottie just mess around while being devastated of being blown out? I mean putting the kills in the wrong order - and if really against Firefoot (aka thinking her a wolf from the rival pack) that would be also annoying to Firefoot?
I mean that's how we people are, irrational in times and being fex. accused of killing someone you thought was a bad idea while you were - in your own mind at least - being really clever, and now are in risk of looking like a clumsy one - or something? No, I don't have any evidence for the "intelligence of the kills", but just reminding we might have other reasons here besides purely tactical ones... |
I suppose Lottie could lie about spotting Legate in order to hide legate's likely dreams (Nerwen/Lommy/Mith) because one or more is in Lottie's pack...
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And Lommy again.
"Seer"!me went after her, "seer"!Legate protected her. Conveying Greenie's role could actually be quite useful after all. And why is everyone believing the wolf...???? So, tentatively... Loslote, Lommy, ???? Mac, ????, ???? If the Macpack killed Legate as a potential seer, presumably Mith and Nerwen aren't in it. Edit: X'd with Nog |
Definitely want to scry Legate.
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